Hundred $Dollar Demo – Saturday Pick 7

Anyone actually reading my blog?  You’re tired of me talking about Florida State.  So let me get this out of the way: take the Seminoles -8 at Duke.  I think Duke actually wins this one, so I would wager $30 on the points line to every $5 on the Money Line favoring Florida State.

Let’s continue role-playing how I’d bet $100 bucks today…

Kansas State getting 9 1/2 in Ames against Iowa St. is a crap shoot.  I’m staying off of this one.  I could see it being blow-out city for “The Mayor” and the Iowa St. Cyclones.  However, K-State has surprised me a couple times this season already.  I respect the past performances (and the line).  The one Big 12 game I will wager is to favor Baylor -6 at home against Texas.  I think Texas has over-performed and Baylor is pissed it just got shielded by KU despite a most feisty effort.  I’d just put $5 on a Baylor cover, for the purposes of this exercise.

Richmond s getting 3 1/2 points after beating UMASS against Dayton?  And the Spiders are hosting?  Throw a shekel ($5) on Richmond to win this game outright.  Why not?  They’re home and they’re on a roll.  Back-to-back wins against UMASS and Dayton can be a season-changer, and they know that.

We’re up to $45 wagered, on this fictitious exercise.

Florida is awesome, but Tennessee is desperate for a program win.  I will take the Volunteers $5 money line and $6 getting the 9 points.  This means if they cover, but don’t win, I break even.  However, I profit $17.75 for my measly $5 if they win outright.  If they get blown out, obviously I lose the $11 bucks.  Let’s do it (hypothetically).

Michigan State Michigan is the match up of the day.  You know why?  Because they are tightly matched up, especially because of the injuries Sparty is facing.  I think Michigan St. will win at home because senior Appling is facing freshman Walton at point.  But, it’s the highlight game of the day for a reason, and I’ll wager $24 that Michigan covers 6.

$20 bucks left.  $5 on Georgetown cover 11 1/2, $5 on Georgetown money line (+500) at Creighton.  $10 on BYU to cover 7 1/2 against Gonzaga.  I like BYU’s freshman center to keep this one interesting, and BYU has underperformed versus expectations.  I think the Gonzaga Bulldogs to squeak out a close one.

I only took 1 favorite compared to 6 underdogs.  But, that’s what I do.  I am shopping for great values and simulating the type of approach I’ll take during March Madness.  Matt’s ATS is 22-17 after a disappointing 3-4 last week.  That’s only 56% on the year.  My goal is to head into Vegas this March at least 60% on the season.  Let’s see how I fare when we take into account more practical pricing scenarios.


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