BY MATT DE SARLE

Each year unlikely but not uncommon March Madness traditions rear their ugly, gorgeous heads

6. Play-In Game Winners Gain Momentum and Beat the Odds

In 2025, North Carolina demolished San Diego State, a historically great defensive program. Their decisive win silenced all of their detractors who said they didn’t belong in the tournament. It also turned up the volume on this tradition that is no longer a cute trend. One of the most dangerous seeds in the entire bracket is the 11 seed.

Every year, an 11 seed that finds its mojo in Dayton. As improbable as this sounds, the play-in game winner becomes very dangerous. Those teams carry momentum. They get the natural advantage of getting familiar with the arena on a Tuesday or Wednesday before they play the at-large opponent on Thursday or Friday.

In 2022, 11-seeded Notre Dame beat Rutgers in a close (play-in) game and then crushed 6-seeded Alabama by 14 points in the next matchup. Notre Dame then gave 3-seed Texas Tech trouble before losing by 6 points.

In 2021, UCLA won its play-in game as an 11 seed and continued its magical run all the way to the Final Four.

In 2018, Syracuse made the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed after beating Arizona State in the play-in game.

In 2017, 11-seed USC upset (4-loss) SMU in the first round after winning its play-in game.

In 2016, Fred VanVleet and the 11-seed Wichita State Shockers beat Vanderbilt in the playoff game before upsetting 6-seed Arizona.

And so this trend of the 11 seed gaining momentum…is gaining momentum.

Fun fact: In the last 30 years, an 11 seed is much more likely to make a Final Four as compared to a 6 seed. The last 6 seed to make a Final Four was the Fab Five in 1993. Meantime, there have been four 11 seeds to make the Final Four since 2006 (George Mason, VCU, Loyola Chicago, and UCLA).

5. Sunday’s Made-for-TV Matchup Returns

The potential Baylor vs. Duke matchup on Sunday looms as another prime-time showdown tailor-made for TV drama. CBS and the NCAA continue their tradition of arranging Sunday games that capture maximum attention and create compelling narratives. This is nothing new. Wichita State basketball fans still aren’t over the letdown of losing to 8-seed Kentucky on Sunday, March 23rd, 2014.

Illinois basketball fans can relate, as the committee arranged a Sunday matinee for Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago to renew their Cinderella ways against an in-state foe in 2021. Loyola was arguably a top-10 team nationally, yet they were given a 9 seed, ensuring a high-profile matchup with 1-seed Illinois within the first weekend. It was just too good of a television programming moment for the committee and/or television executives to pass up.

4. Fear the Nation’s Leading Scorer, Regardless of Seed Line

If CJ McCollum and Harold “The Show” Arceneaux haven’t taught us anything, then Max Abmas and Oral Roberts made it officially official: The scoring abilities of a guard who ranks in the top five (or first overall) nationwide can translate in the tournament.

History tells us to keep an eye on these types of players!

3. Shaky Teams Get Shocked in the First Showdown

Sometimes when a roster is stacked with first-round projected NBA picks, that doesn’t always equate to Final Four finishes. Oftentimes, these players are preoccupied with other priorities.

Shaky tournament résumés are not limited to flawed mid-majors or inconsistent veteran teams. Even rosters featuring elite NBA lottery talent can fall short of the Elite Eight, reinforcing how fragile March success can be. See our #2 tradition below for more on that phenomena.

Some more specific team examples come to mind in recent years. With two losses in late February and an early exit from the SEC Tournament, perhaps we should have seen the 2021-22 Kentucky Wildcats struggling with 15-seed Saint Peter’s in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is another team that lost to this same Saint Peter’s bunch. The Boilermakers also showed signs of trouble late in the season. They lost three games in the final two weeks of the regular season (at Michigan State, at Wisconsin, and home to Iowa). Do we expect Purdue to be undefeated the final two weeks in a tough Big Ten gauntlet of a schedule? No. Were the warning signs there for a team stacked with NBA talent? Yes.

2. Future NBA Greats Don’t Always Dominate

Tre Johnson, the freshman phenom at Texas, is the player to watch in this category. If he’s as dominant as advertised, he has a path to shine. He would have winnable games against Illinois and Kentucky if his bracket broke according to the favorites. However, history tells us that not all elite prospects make deep runs in the tournament.

If you’re a fan of 1990s NBA hoops, think of the best players of the past three decades who actually played some college basketball: Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan. None made a Final Four. In fact, most of these greats struggled to advance beyond the first weekend. Conversely, media darlings like Jimmer Fredette and Luka Garza became National Players of the Year yet never cracked the Sweet 16.

Kevin Durant remains one of the most famous examples, producing one of the greatest freshman seasons in modern college basketball history at Texas yet still exiting before the regional finals. More recently, Cade Cunningham carried Oklahoma State as the projected No. 1 overall pick in 2021, only to see the Cowboys upset in the Round of 32. Jabari Smith Jr. faced a similar fate the following season, when a highly seeded Auburn team bowed out on the tournament’s first weekend despite his status as a top-three draft selection. Brandon Miller’s 2023 Alabama squad advanced further but still could not break through to the Elite Eight, falling short of the program’s lofty expectations during his dominant freshman campaign.

And while they are often cited as cautionary tales of star power without postseason payoff, both 1st overall picks in the NBA Draft Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons did not reach the NCAA Tournament at all during their lone college seasons!

Collectively, these cases underscore a recurring reality for bettors and bracket analysts alike: even transcendent individual talent rarely guarantees a deep March run when team form, matchup dynamics, and late-season warning signs begin to surface.

1. Committee’s Fascination with Reunions and Revenge Games

The orchestration of great storylines goes beyond Sunday matchups. The committee loves arranging revenge games and reuniting old foes. A potential Kansas vs. Missouri game could dictate who makes an Elite Eight from the former Big Eight conference. It’s not the first time the committee has set up a meeting between exes. In case you don’t know the history, the rivalry between Kansas and Missouri goes back to the violent quarrels that led up to the Civil War itself.

The most recent example is how Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer played against his old team in round one. The committee didn’t even wait for the field of 32 to reunite that broken relationship! It happens frequently for coaches, too. One example that comes to mind is when 11-seeded Arizona State got paired with 6-seeded Buffalo in the first round, setting up an awkward meeting between Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley and his former school. Not only did Buffalo face their ex-coach, but they did so in their highest-ever tournament seeding, making for compelling drama. Buffalo beat Arizona State in 2019, proving once again that storylines drive the bracket.

Follow College Basketball Eye Test on Twitter and YouTube for more great hoops content!