The national conversation about whether the Men’s College Basketball Tournament should expand beyond 68 teams is getting weak support from the teams around the bubble. For example, Rick Pitino just publicly blasted his team for being un-athletic and “the most un-enjoyable experience I’ve had as a coach.” As we enter March, Pitino’s team is the poster child for making the tournament as the bubble team.
Here are some other teams not helping their cause when it comes to expanding the tournament, or expanding their own 2023-24 season.
Last 4 in: Seton Hall, Wake Forest, TCU, Virginia Last 4 out: Villanova, New Mexico, Utah, Mississippi State Way out: St. John’s, Memphis, Colorado St., Utah
Alarms Sounding for Snoozing Wake Forest and its tournament chances
Wake Forest is the poster child for the type of bubble team the 2023-2024 Men’s College Basketball season is producing. They’re hit-or-miss. Right after its dramatic win against Duke where court-storming became the story, the headline for Demon Deacon fans was their qualification for the tournament. Surely, a win over top ranked Duke would put them over the edge. However, that February 24th victory was followed by three really bad back-to-back losses to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech respectively. Even winning two of those three games would have likely kept a 20-10 team on the inside looking out. Instead, now they face a tough Clemson team in a must-win regular season finale where 19-12 still might make the cut.
Note: On March 9th, Damari Monsanto popped up again on injury reports after returning in February from a serious knee injury. Click here for a full list of player injuries you should monitor before filling out your March Madness bracket!
Wake will ultimately be judged by their conference tournament performance. And that list goes on…
Texas A&M Men’s Basketball Season on the Brink of Extinction
Like most bubble teams across America, Texas A&M can’t get out of its own way. Whenever they score what seams like a tournament-berth-ensuring win, they follow it up with a head-scratching loss. And this is the trend nationwide. The Aggies beat 6th ranked Tennessee on February 10th and were on the inside of the bubble looking out. Then, they lost at Vanderbilt, giving the Commodores only their second win on the season. The Aggies then spiraled and are currently in a 5 game losing streak. By themselves, each of those losses can be justified, except perhaps for the Vandy one. However, now the Aggies aren’t even in the bubble conversation.
After UCONN, Marquette, and Creighton, the Big East is a hot mess of bubble teams. You could argue that all of these teams had their opportunities and squandered them. There is seemingly a wide gap between the upper crust of this conference and the middle tier. Villanova can’t break through a glass ceiling in its own conference. The Wildcats got beat by 22 points to UCONN to finish out February. They got beat by Marquette. The Wildcats won against Creighton, but struggled within its own state in out-of-conference resume opportunities. Villanova’s non-conference resume is riddled with losses against Pennsylvania, Drexel, and St. Joseph’s. Those losses don’t bode well for Villanova’s tournament hopes. Yet, still the Wildcats are always listed on the bubble graphics.
One look at Villanova or St. John’s on the court shows a tier below tournament quality.
Conversely, Seton Hall is a certified tournament team in my opinion. By the way, this is author Matt DeSarle, just your average college basketball fanatic who also owns a small business that does media production.
The Seton Hall Pirates are 18-10 on the season, but context matters. The two losses were while star wing Kadary Richmond was out with an undisclosed injury.
The Pirates lost to Creighton in trouble overtime while Richmond was out. They also lost to Providence in a consecutive game there. Having split with Creighton and struggled against the upper crust of UCONN and Marquette, Seton Halls is looking like the most quintessential 10 or 11 seed in the tournament.
Mediocre Mountain West Moves Mob Towards March
If you follow CBBEyeTest on Twitter, you know that I don’t believe in the Mountain West. Are you already thinking about San Diego State? Sure, they were the runner up to the national championship last year. However, all the other Mountain West teams haven’t won ONE tournament game in the past several years. The Aztecs seem to carry a subgroup of mediocre teams and their NET rankings, puling their conference peers NET closer to the teens.
Update: Boise State beat San Diego State on their floor on Friday night, March 8th. That will continue to solidify the gravitational pull for this conference around the Net 18-40th range with multiple Mountain West planets spinning in that orbit.
But look at the sub-500 records among many of these teams in the middle of the pack. New Mexico and Colorado State both have losing records in Quad 1 games. The also lose Quad 2 games. Teams shouldn’t be rewarded for just playing well at home, dominating Quad 3/4 games, and occasionally beating San Diego State. I’m looking at you, Colorado State, Boise State, and Utah State! Nevada is actually the lone wolf in this conference that I’m starting to believe in. They just went into Colorado State and won without their leading scorer, Kenan Blackshear.
If you are exploring the futures market or already filling out your bracket, you need to do a status check on these men’s college basketball player injuries first!
Marquette basketball is making light of Tyler Kolek’s injury, alluding to how he wanted to play in the Big East Championship game. However, that oblique injury was serious enough to keep Kolek out for a championship game and an opportunity to become a 2 seed as opposed to a 3 or 4 seed. So it matters.
In this video from MU Wire Sports, you can see coach Shaka Smart talk about Tyler Kolek’s latest injury status.
Tyler Kolek shows flashes of John Stockton at point guard with his flashes of fundamental yet perfectly angled passes. He averages 7.6 assists and has also greatly improved his point production over his four years at Marquette. In his senior campaign, Kolek is averaging 15 points per game!
2. Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar – KU stars unknown status
Even the Kansas City star is scrambling to find out the injury status of these two Kansas City stars. KU basketball’s performance in Kansas City during the Big 12 Tournament fell flat, thanks in large part to their absence. It is impossible to replace the production that both Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar bring to KU Hoops. They got beat by 20 to Cincinati in the early rounds of that tournament.
Follow the Kansas City Star for updates. Click here for the best printable bracket.
Houston’s big man enforcer (and improved hook shot shooter) J’wan Roberts was held out of the last two days of the Big 12 Tournament with what coach Kelvin Sampson is calling a bruise. And his loss was obviously felt as the Cougars got clobbered by the Iowa State Cyclones in the championship game. Coaches famously undersell injuries. We’re not saying that’s what’s happening here, but Roberts injury is obviously both watching closely. It’s important to not only check his pregame injury status, but watch how he is moving around once he’s back on the court. In his fourth season with Houston, the power forward/center is averaging 9 points and just shy of 7 rebounds per contest.
Retired List: Similar to tequila on Tuesday nights for me, these players have been added to the retired list because either the injury is no longer relevant or their team is no longer in the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas – Jalen Graham – shoulder Auburn – Jaylin Williams – knee Duke – Kyle Filipowski – ankle Kentucky – Tre Mitchell – shoulder Memphis – Malcolm Dandridge – academic Seton Hall – Kadary Richmond – undisclosed
Related game notes: 3-2-2024 Auburn’s Jaylin Williams played and scored 10 points, 3 rebounds in win vs. Miss St. 3-3-2024 Memphis center Malcolm Dandridge was seen on the bench, but didn’t play in a wild win at home against UAB.
Kevin McCullar Jr. logging a lot of minutes today. Win or lose, that’s great news for #KUBBall fans. Here’s other injuries I’m monitoring: https://t.co/v4BJvZOQ8O
From makeups to break-ups, my relationships with certain college basketball teams remained volatile this Valentine’s Day week. Here are teams that are either dressing sexy for the tournament committee, or about to get dumped.
BY MATTY D.
“The One Night Stand”
They had zero idea what the future would bring, but things got hot and heavy for James and Madison one November evening in East Lansing. The James Madison Dukes defeated Michigan State in overtime at their house. They snagged a hottie as the semester started. Their dating profile jumped to the top of the feed. James Madison was actually listed in the AP Top 25.
However, after sliding into the DMs of the AP writers, the Dukes’ chances for more action went radio silent. Three losses in the Sun Belt Conference have this team out in the cold and not even in the bubble conversation.
Make Ups to Break Ups
This team is nothing but trouble. After losses to LSU, and winnable games slipping away against Ole Miss and Arkansas, confidence was still growing in our relationship with Texas A&M basketball. After a rocky January, it was time for some make ups sessions. That came in a big explosion in a 16 point victory against 6th ranked Tennessee. But those make ups went to break ups when they were caught messing around at Vanderbilt. The Aggies used their cheat card against a 1-9 team in the SEC.
Hanging You Out to Dry
There’s a lot of hype about these two coaches. Like elementary school children the night of February 13th, college basketball writers nationally waste a lot ink on these two guys. Will they be the man their fans have held out hope for? Or, will they leave their fan base high and dry?
Close-up shot of two red Valentines cards hanging on twine, isolated on white background
Of course, I’m talking about Memphis coach Penny Hardaway and St. John’s coach Rick Pitino. Hardaway has had a long-term relationship with Memphis, though his coaching chapter in that love novel has had some major ups and downs. As a former Memphis Tiger star himself, Hardaway has committed to his hometown city to grow roots and build a future together. After an amazing start to the season with multiple top 25 wins, the team is starting to revert back to playing like an AAU team (Hardaway’s prior coaching experience). This would be a major disappointment if this team failed to tie the knot with a tournament seed on Selection Sunday.
We won’t get into Pitino’s relationship history. As for his new relationship with the St. John’s Red Storm, it too has seen better days. After quality non-conference wins earlier this season against Utah and at West Virginia, it seems St. John’s has hit a ceiling in its own conference. Marquette and UCONN looked superior to them in their most recent matchups. And there’s a stockpile of so-so Big East teams floating around the bubble (Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova). At least two or three of these teams will have to perform best in the speed-dating equivalent of college basketball’s dating scene. They will have to win the Big East Tournament to make March Madness.
These major college basketball programs are getting ice cold at the wrong time and jeopardizing their seed line or even their tournament berth. That includes one Mid-Major whose Cinderella slipper may be falling off before the ball.
BY MATTY D.
Matty D. of CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com identifies top teams going ice cold in January
Check out 5 fantastic values when it comes to investing in underdogs to win March Madness. At last check, these teams were selling for at least 30-1 or better odds (i.e. more favorable to the bettor).
These values indicate the odds for each team to win an NCAA Championship. This same report resulted in two Final Four teams last year! See here.
BYU Cougars – NCAAB Futures 40-1
I was buying into the BYU Cougars at 60-1 around year’s end. And after beating Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse to close out February, BYU’s stock is only going up. This team is historically older and more mature than its competition. Spencer Johnson is a saucy point forward who epitomizes this with his court awareness. Jaxson Robinson is an electric wing at 6-7 he offers a matchup problem for most teams. Power forward Fousseyni Traore has returned from injury a few weeks ago and has contributed multiple 20 plus point performances. Not many teams ever win as a road team against Kansas. This could be a sign that there’s a special season on tap in Provo.
South Florida Bulls – NCAAB Futures 300-1
Amir Abdur-Rahim has done it again. Many people didn’t realize that he did it a first time. The first year head coach at South Florida has his team cracking the AP 25 and on its way to the Men’s College Basketball Tournament as we enter March. He did the same for little-known Kennesaw State last year. Abdur-Rahim is a rising star in the coaching realm. He brings senior guards Chris Youngblood and Brandon Stroud over from his Kennesaw success. The Bulls have beaten American Athletic Conference heavyweights such as FAU, SMU and Memphis this season. They actually finish February on a 13 game winning streak. It makes no sense that a team on such a roll is listed at 250 or even 300-to-1. However, you can find that value on popular apps such as FanDuel and DraftKings.
Auburn Tigers – NCAAB Futures 30-1
Bruce Pearl’s team returns a talented and postseason tested nucleus. NBA top pick Jabari Smith has been replaced by freshman Aden Holloway in terms of underclassman scoring punch. This team is loaded with veteran players who value the ball late in games and patiently wait for the best shot. There are mutiple point guards with experience and toughness. Johni Brome looks more and more like Chris Bosh each year. You might have difficulty finding Auburn at 40-1 depending on when you’re reading this. However, they would still be worth it at 22-1 or 25-1.
Seton Hall – NCAAB Futures 200-1
The Seton Hall Pirates were spotted on DraftKings Sportsbook app the weekend of Christmas at 200-1 odds to win a college basketball championship. They remained in that range even after beating fellow bubble teams Xavier, Butler and St. John’s in late February. If Shaheen Holloway can lead the St. Peters Peacocks to the Elite 8, I think he has a chance of winning the Big East tournament. The Pirates also beat top 5 teams UCONN and Marquette this season, so it’s not out of the question that they carve out a tournament worthy resume.
College of Charleston – NCAAB Futures 350-1
Both of these long-shot odd choices are more about coaching. College of Charleston coach Pat Kelsey always has his team well conditioned and prepared to run a track meet and play above its weight class in tournament play. This team hasn’t had an earth-shattering season, but they are still among the favorites to win their conference and have a high upside.
This video below might haunt me scarier than the Ghost of Christmas Past. I made the argument to invest in Memphis, among some other dogs. Check out the archive:
General managers from the National Basketball Association continue to show that they’re not watching college basketball closely enough as major talent dropped out of the top 10. Here’s my top 5 steals. These are proven players from college basketball who slipped further than they should have.
Kansas State Forward Keyontae Johnson Picked in the Second Round
It’s fitting that a sleepy good team from tornado alley, appropriately named the Thunder, kept Keyontae Johnson from slipping off the radar. Oklahoma City is slowly putting together a respectable program. They just missed the play-in tournament during the 2023 campaign after playing well down the stretch. Johnson will add a big and experienced basketball body and mind. Keyontae’s collapse on the court while a Florida Gator is well documented. He made his return to basketball to help lead the Kansas State Wildcats to the Elite 8. Johnson is big, strong, and should fit in perfectly with a hungry Oklahoma City club.
Houston Rockets Refuel on Explosive Talent
The Houston Rockets already had a back-log of 21, 22, and 23 year-olds ready to prove their high ceiling possibilities in the NBA. Now they’ve added probably the best teenager in the 2023 NBA Draft after Victor Wembanyama.
Cam Whitmore of the Houston Rockets becomes the steal of the NBA Draft
Those who closely watch college basketball couldn’t believe that Cam Whitmore dropped to the 20th overall pick. Sure, he missed some time at Villanova with injury. However, during the second half of the season he was virtually un-guardable. It’s hard to believe he is only 18 years old. He looks like Minnesota Timberwolves star guard Anthony Edwards, already. Watch for his shooting stroke to catch up with that profile.
I cannot believe we actually got CAM WHITMORE AT 20!!
The Sweet Sixteen of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament still offers a variety of heavy underdogs and great value in the futures sports betting market.
BY MATTY D.
In world where Princeton and either Florida Atlantic or Farleigh Dickinson will be in the Sweet Sixteen, you still haven’t missed the boat to buy into some great underdogs during March Madness.
As the tournament began, I published an article here ranking my 5 favorite future odds to win the title. Two of those teams will be in the Sweet Sixteen with Arkansas and San Diego State. Florida Atlantic was another team listed on that rankings.
So many giants have fallen, that the price for a ticket on any top team has increased. Houston and Alabama are now in the 4-1 or 5-1 territory with Arizona, Purdue and Duke all already eliminated.
Best NCAAB Future Values Remaining for March Madness – Sweet 16 Edition
Princeton Tigers 200-1 to Win Championship, 40-1 for Final Four
As miraculous as Princeton’s Sweet 16 run has looked, we have seen this movie before. The Tigers didn’t only beat Missouri in the round of 32, they dominated them. Ever since Princeton put on the gas pedal and blew past Arizona in the 15-2 matchup, the Tigers have had major swagger. This team is looking like the Dunk City Florida Gulf Coast team that shocked the world as a 15 seed. This type of upset is also becoming an annual tradition with 15 seed St. Peter’s going on an Elite 8 run just last season.
Florida Atlantic 50-1 to win NCAA Basketball Championship
This is the bizarre situation where an underdog actually becomes the heavy favorite. Depending on which sportsbook you visit, Florida Atlantic became anywhere between a 12 to 15 point favorite to beat Farleigh Dickinson in the round of 32.
Creighton 10-1 to win NCAA Championshop
The Bluejays competed last year in the Sweet 16 against eventual champion Kansas and this year they thoroughly routed another Big 12 team, in Baylor. Creighton’s odds to win it all have surged from 25-1 to 10-1, but could still be a great value for a team that has all the ingredients.
The week before Selection Sunday gives clarity on college basketball’s rising and falling stock.
BY MATTY D.
On the morning of Thursday, March 9th CBS Network bracketologist Jerry Palm had Michigan in and Rutgers out. Mississippi State was also on the edge of the March Madness bubble. And as quickly as games could tip on that day, the tournament landscape shifted again.
Michigan lost to Rutgers by 12 points, effectively losing its place on the bubble.
Conversely, Rutgers raised its stock on the right side of the bubble.
In the SEC, Mississippi State effectively punched its ticket with a close win against the Florida Gators. The Bulldogs will now play Alabama where it’s academic who wins. Both teams should be tournament teams.
Oklahoma State is another bubble team that couldn’t pop through its own glass ceiling. The Cowboys lost in the 7 vs. 2 matchup against Texas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. With Joe Lunardi listing them as one of the last four in, this loss almost certainly ensures they’ll show up as an 11 seed in a play-in game (if at all).
The ACC has a similar dynamic on its hand. None of its “bubble teams” are seizing the moment. Clemson, UNC, and Pittsburgh are all showing their warts within the final chapter of conference play.
Despite the typo, Joe Lunardi’s bubble was full of Big 10 and ACC teams.
Mid-major teams take care of business as bubble teams drop the ball
The team that is remiss from the bubble conversation on both Palm and ESPN bracketologist’s Joe Lunardi’s projection mid-way through Championship Week was Florida Atlantic. The Owls were a mainstay in the Top 25 before getting into the meat of its own difficult Conference USA schedule. They avoided this bubble conversation because they simply took care of business. Having only 3 losses on the season, FAU had slowly risen out of bubble talks and into the 9 or 10 seed on projections. Having played the likes of a talented North Texas and UAB squad, FAU’s regular conference season was not without its NET-boosting opportunities. The few losses that the Owls had suffered were respectable. The Owls were also able to upset the aforementioend Florida Gators in one of its few Quad 1 opportunities. FAU was still battling for its conference title heading into the weekend, but looking solid for an at-large bid regardless. Another mid-major team that took care of its business was College of Charleston. The Cougars went into Championship Week also as a 3 loss team. Joe Lunardi had them out of the tournament if it weren’t for a conference championship. But the Cougars took care of business. They beat a respectable challenger in Towson during the quarterfinals then capped off the crown with a win against UNCW. Teams like College of Charleston and FAU should be seen for what they are. They are hardened by a conference schedule where they were the hunted. And they survived. These teams should be much more fear than a fledurling Michigan or Wisconsin “bubble team” from the Big 10. (Wisconsin lost to a pathetic Ohio State team in the conference tournament).
Johnell Davis photo courtesy Mauricio Paiz/ fausports.com
Mountain West climbs towards five tournament teams as Selection Sunday nears
Utah State is considered a bubble team, although Aggies fans shouldn’t worry. Very rarely does a team within the top 25-30 of the NET not make the NCAA Tournament. This year, their losses are a lot more justified with the Mountain West ranking higher than the ACC in a lot of categories. Conference mate Boise State is also technically on the bubble line, although the Broncos are in a similar power position. Utah State could be the fifth tournament team from the Mountain West, joining Boise State, San Diego State (regular season champions), New Mexico and Nevada or San Jose State.
Other news and notes from NCAAB’s Championship Week:
Baylor is officially in damage control mode after getting swept this season by the Iowa State Cyclones of all teams. ISU beat the Bears three times total this season, including a conference tournament win Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.
Marquette messed around and was losing to 8 seeded St. John’s at halftime before conference player of the year Tyler Kylek and the Golden Eagles came back to win.
UCLA got great contributions from Amari Bailey and Adem Bona in their PAC-12 Tournament win against a fiesty Colorado Buffs program. Bailey and Bona are going to be crucially important as the Bruins just lost Jaylen Clark, likely out for the season.
Avoiding any chance of being upset is a good thing. That’s especially true in college basketball. On a weekend when the Super Bowl is expected to feature a tight matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles, college basketball’s conference standings are tight as well. Many important conference tournaments in college hoops have bye games for its top teams. Here’s a glance at college basketball games for Super Bowl weekend, with an eye on what teams can capture those all-important byes.
Mountain West Offers High Ceiling and High Seeding
The team that climbs to the top of the Mountain West Conference this season will reach certain heights in the college hoops landscape. The Mountain West is the fourth best conference in college basketball this year. Therefore, the conference winner will get regional preference and a top 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There will also be a pack of hikers from the league who have a high ceiling. Conversely, someone in the middle of the pack will slip and suffer a dramatic fall. Right now San Diego State is the only team from the conference that is technically “ranked” in the Top 25. The veteran team is again loaded with experienced players who can contribute 6 points or more.
The team that captures the top of the Mountain West will capture a high seed.
The second pack of teams from the conference is a force to be reckoned with. CBS Sports bracketology expert Jerry Palm has Nevada, Boise State and New Mexico all projected in the tournament on Super Bowl weekend. New Mexico just took a bad loss to Air Force on Friday night. The Lobos could be the character that slips from the rocks and falls out of the picture.
Two teams that could back-fill their position are Utah State and UNLV. Today they stand in the NET rankings at 33 and 82 respectively. UNLV is a current victim of how daunting this Mountain West conference actually is. However, when you watch them play, you recognize the high ceiling. The Runnin’ Rebels November matchup against another underrated conference team in Dayton was a good barameter for UNLVs’ potential. Former Oklahoma Sooner transfer Elijah Harmless led the way with 24 points. The Rebels have a fleet of skilled guards and a do-the-dirty work center in David Muoka who can compete with anyone at the rim.
On Saturday, UNLV gets an enormous chance to boost its tournament resume with a game at San Diego State. It’s unlikely that UNLV wins. It’s also unlikely that UNLV makes the NCAA tournament as an at large team. However, this game is a good litmus test to watch whether UNLV has its A game ready for the Mountain West Tournament. With six conference games remaining, it’s also unlikely that UNLV grabs a first round bye in the Mountain West Tournament. The Rebels were one slot short of that accomplishment last season. Right now they are four games behind Utah State in the loss column with six games left.
Big brands re-emerge in the Big East
There has been a bit of a Renaissance in the Big East. With exception of Georgetown, the big brand names remain relevant late in the season. College basketball fans were treated to a UCONN season where the Huskies were an AP Top 5 team. Sean Miller has returned to Xavier and immediately made them an AP Top 25 team. Although they are not a tournament team, even St. John’s is playing relevant basketball and perhaps looking at an NIT or a CBI bid.
However, the biggest mover right now is the Villanova Wildcats. This statement has caused a storm of debate on our Twitter page. However, with veteran guard Justin Moore back from an achilles tear in last year’s Big Dance, Villanova looks much better than its record shows.
Join the Villanova debate by following CBBEyeTest on Twitter.
The tournament committee is stubborn about a lot of things. One thing they have historically actually shown common sense about is judging a team that had a major injury. With Justin Moore back today from Achilles injury, Villanova is back in the tournament hunt as well.
Villanova was leading Creighton in Omaha on the game Justin Moore returned. They lost that one, but rebounded by beating up on Depaul. With an 11-13 record, they now play Seton Hall, Butler, Providence and Xavier next. That’s four winnable games and two Quad 1 opportunities. If they win five straight in this stretch, they will be 15-13 with an opportunity to avenge their loss against Crieghton to go to 16-13. Let’s assume they lose one more of their remaining Big East schedule. They would head into Madison Square Garden as a dangerous, experienced, battle-tested, ball security advocate in the Big East Tournament at 18-14. I don’t see the tournament committee keeping this group out of the Big Dance if they win 2 of 3 in the Big East Tournament in that scenario finishing at 20-15. That’s me. Or they could just win the Big East tournament.
The scrum of college basketball teams to grab the loose bids intensifies on Super Bowl weekend.
These college basketball teams are all high value picks as longshots to win it all.
BY MATTY D.
This has been a volatile year for college basketball’s top 25. After the long-standing favorite of Houston, numbers 2 through 10 have been a game of musical chairs. The Houston Cougars currently sit at 6-1 odds to win it all.
Best longshot odds to win the 2023 NCAA Basketball Championship
Meanwhile, college basketball fans have been treated to some real surprising performances from mid-major teams this season. This article outlines my favorite value picks for current odds to win it all. Two of those teams have improved from an off-the-radar mid-major to a staple of the AP Top 25. Only one of my 5 value teams from the start of the season have stuck on this top 5 list.
#5 Florida Atlantic 175-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
The Owls have come out of nowhere, so if you’re scratching your head, welcome to my list. The Owls haunted the Florida Gators and their high hopes for a tournament caliber year by dominating them in Gainesville. That was the start. Florida Atlantic continued their momentum into conference play where they’ve beaten tournament-relevant programs like UAB, North Texas and Western Kentucky. They have repeatedly been ranked in weekly polls in the 21-25 territory. Yet, they’re somehow still 175-1 to win it all. That, according to FanDuel Sportsbook app on February 15th.
The Owls can knock down the three. FAU’s bench can score — its two top scorers come off the bench. They rank among the top 10 teams in the nation in scoring and have a perimeter surrounded with combo guards who can create their own shots. Take your shot by considering this heavy underdog for at least a Final Four ticket. The Conference USA teams are always dangerous in March Madness (think Middle Tennessee and North Texas).
#4 Arkansas Razorbacks 50-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
This is the only SEC team to currently make the list, but there could have been many others. Missouri, Auburn, and Texas A&M are also very intriguing. Arkansas makes the list because tits resume is 95% stamped for approval and a tournament team. Those other teams may be in the 65-75% range. At 50-1, Arkansas carries the flag for a conference that is still largely underrated by the futures market. If you are a futures shopper you should consider investing in the conference itself to win it all. You might even find a 4-1 or 5-1 steal and suddenly be invested in all the high level teams — Tennessee, Alabama, the list goes on.
As for Arkansas, the roster has turned over completely for 2022-2023, but the identity remains the same. Late season news for Arkansas has been a mixed bag. They took some questionable losses like losing to Vanderbilt in mid-January and losing to Mississippi State at home mid-February. The good news is that super hyped NBA prospect combo guard Nick Smith Jr. has recently returned from his knee injury. Smith Jr. is slowing gaining more minutes and productivity as March approaches.
Smith Jr. and fellow freshman Anthony Black were especially gelling in an SEC tournament game against Auburn where they scored 14 and 19 respectively with great efficiency. This team is hitting its stride as the tournament nears.
The Hogs defend hard, play fast, and challenge at the rim on both ends. This is a better team on the defensive end, ranking in kenpom’s top 20. The Mitchell brothers offer some size and athleticism down low. Jordan Walsh is really fun to watch with his Dennis Rodman-like tenacity. The team is loaded with McDonald’s All-Americans (three current, one more committed). If you are reading mock NBA draft boards and like this team because of prospect Nick Smith Jr., don’t. Smith has not been a consistent piece of this lineup. That said, if he emerges into the rotation during the start of the tournament itself, it might be time to jump on the bandwagon. That might be a guy, and this might be a team, looking to improve its stock greatly on the national stage.
#3 College of Charleston 400-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
This one honestly made me do a double-take. I can’t believe College of Charleston is being disrespected in this way. If 400-1 is too rich for your blood (or too thrifty in this case), then you should at least consider CoC at 90-1 or 100-1 to make a magical run to a Final Four. This is a tournament team. The Cougars have cracked the AP Top 25 a few weeks ago and have stuck there in the 18-25 range. Even though they play in a mid-major conference, they may not need to win their conference tournament championship. However, they did win their conference tournament and earned a spot as a 3 loss team.
Two losses in conference took this team from 300-1 to 400-1. That includes a four point loss to Hofstra and a one point loss to Drexel. Otherwise, the Cougars only loss was against UNC early in the season. The Cougars struggled with Towson which has a great scorer in Nicholas Timberlake. The way that College of Charleston beat Towson in comeback fashion in early March and again during the Colonial Athletic Tournament shows that the Cougars can take a punch. They were the hunted all season long within their conference.
This team is especially a case where you need to shop around as a futures investor. The odds for this team are all over the place. On March 10th, three major sportsbooks had them listed with large discrepancies. Ceasars had them listed as 500-1 underdogs to win it all, while FanDuel had them at 400-1 and MGM at 250-1 (according to VegasInsider.com).
Anyone who buys this ticket should also be rooting for Florida Atlantic to win its conference tournament. Like the Owls, the Cougars don’t want to put this decision in the tournament committee hands. And if both Florida Atlantic and College of Charleston get upset in their own conference tournament, it’s highly unlikely that both get a tournament bid. Although, it would be really cool if they played each other in a play-in game! I would love that more than seeing some middle-of-the-pack power six teams play each other.
This was the conference standings for CoC in mid-February showing a dominant record.
C of C has been totally running their league opponents out of the gym. They are consistently winning by 15, 20, 25 points or more. The are undefeated in the Colonial Athletic Conference and only have one loss to their name at 21-1. It has wins over Kent State, Virginia Tech, Davidson and Colorado State. Its only loss is to UNC. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has them slotted as a 10 seed. Even if they lose one or two games in their conference, you could easily see this squad as a play-in-game 11 or 12 seed. Head coach Pat Kelsey has come over from Winthrop where he has brought his renowned conditioning and winning ways. The Cougars are deep, tall, can shoot, sprint to the ball, and play a ton of guys. A recent box score showed Kelsey playing 13 people. I didn’t even know that was possible. In that game, 10 players scored and 10 players played 9 minutes or more. Kelsey gives his guys no excuses not to run to a loose ball, hustle to a rebound, and get out in transition. The makeup of this team is perfectly suited for a tournament situation. If a 6 or 7 seed overlooks them, they’ll at least get the attention of the 2 or 3 seed in the next matchup.
#2: San Diego State 75-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
Could this be the year that the Mountain West actually clicks? If it does, this will be the team to do it. However, there is reason for suspicion. The Mountain West went winless in last season’s tournament. This year, there is a lot of noise about the conference being fourth, fifth, or sixth best in the country. They compare favorably to the ACC, which will likely get seven teams in the tournament. With so many teams with a NET ranking in the 30s or 40s, you’d assume that the Mountain West would also get multiple bids. New Mexico is fading down the stretch of the season. Nevada and Boise State are also projected tournament teams at this point. However, it’s the Aztecs that have the experienced nucleus and chronically under-the-radar culture.
Longtime Steve Fisher assistant, and now longtime San Diego State coach, Brian Dutcher has his Aztecs playing great defense as always. The Aztecs actually rank 27th on Kenpom.com in defensive efficiency, which is perhaps lower than you’d expect from the standard set there.
If you watch college basketball, the cast of characters at San Diego State is comically familiar. It seems guys like Matt Bradley and Nathan Mensah have been there for a lifetime. And they’ve achieved so much. The starting lineup features four seniors and one junior. Bradley has reached a new level with his offensive production. He is averaging 17 points in the month of February. I would hate to have a futures ticket on a young team like Arkansas and have to face a veteran bunch like San Diego State in the tournament. ESPN college basketball Seth Greenberg talks about being “invested in winning.” By that standard, it’s time that the Aztecs commitment pays dividends. The team’s Twitter hashtag is even “The Time is Now.” If you have any belief that the Mountain West will rebound and represent itself well in the tournament this season, San Diego State is a no-brainer.
#1 Drake Bulldogs 300-1 to win a College Basketball Championship
#1 Drake Bulldogs 300-1 to win a College Basketball Championship
If it weren’t for the pandemic, this team might be a household name as an underdog similar to how Oral Roberts will be perceived coming into the 2023 March Madness. Drake is big, experienced, and boast the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year. In a conference that recently sent Cinderella Loyola Chicago to the Final 4, no one should be sleeping on the Bulldogs. Point guard Roman Penn is a powerful asset as an ambidextrous and wise veteran player. The Siena transfer had battled injuries throughout his collegiate career but is looking poised to lead a deep run in another tournament. Drake ran Bradley out of the gym in its conference championship game in St. Louis. Bradley was considered to be a good team. You don’t have to worry about this mid-major team not having the size to battle against a power 5 school. Darnell Brodie is built like a right guard but can guard any center nationwide. Brodie also has a sweet stroke from the charity stripe, just saying. Book the Bulldogs, Owls or Cougars in your Sweet 16 if the bracket allows for it and make for an exciting March Madness!
Removed from List: Creighton Bluejays 30-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
***Creighton has been removed from this list, as the cutoff for how to define an “underdog” has been drawn at the 60-1 threshold. Still, if you might like the argument below to buy in at 30-1.
Creighton’s futures tickets have been selling at a discount since a stretch when they lost 5 of 6 to start December. After then going on an 8 game winning streak, they just lost on Valentine’s Day to another ranked team at Providence. But when you look closer at the details, you see that this is still a Final Four caliber team. Creighton started the season ranked in the Top 10 of the AP Top 25. Futures for Creighton to win a NCAA Basketball Championship started around 35-1, dropped as low as 80-1, and have now regained strength around 35-1 again. After the Providence loss, the odds stuck at 25-1. If you are shopping, you could likely still grab this team at 30-1 or even 35-1.
Creighton has regained its footing with a solid performance within the Big East. However, its non-conference wins early in the season might be its saving grace. The Big 12 and SEC get a lot of hype as the best conferences in basketball. Well, Creighton beat Texas Tech (Big 12) and Arkansas (SEC) right before that losing streak started. And, the losing streak could certainly be attributed to losing their starting center, Ryan Kalkbrenner, to injury. Once Kalkbrenner returned, Creighton went 4-2 immediately. The loses they suffered during that rocky stretch included respectable losses to probably tournament teams. They lost to Arizona, BYU, Texas and Marquette in that stretch. This gives you an idea of how aggressively this team was scheduling. They had high hopes since challenging eventual champion Kansas in last year’s NCAA tournament.
Creighton was 65-1 to win it all on the FanDuel Sportsbook app on January 25, 2023.
Creighton’s athletic wings Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander set the tone for a stellar defensive squad. South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman is a strong guard who can score at all three levels. He was arguably the most sought after transfer in America this offseason. And sophomore point guard Ryan Nembhard is a poised point guard who can control and take over games. Despite the turbulence, Creighton is still projected as we publish this as a tournament team. You can buy them at half off their 30-1 starting price when the season started.
When it comes to college basketball futures for March Madness 2023, Creighton lives in the same neighborhood as some blue blood programs. Duke, UNC, Creighton and Indiana all have roughly 50-1 odds to win a championship as February 2023 began. A recent poll by College Basketball Eye Test on Twitter showed that Indiana is the most popular pick among these values.
Which #NCAAB long shot is the best value right now?
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