Anyone actually reading my blog? You’re tired of me talking about Florida State. So let me get this out of the way: take the Seminoles -8 at Duke. I think Duke actually wins this one, so I would wager $30 on the points line to every $5 on the Money Line favoring Florida State.
Let’s continue role-playing how I’d bet $100 bucks today…
Kansas State getting 9 1/2 in Ames against Iowa St. is a crap shoot. I’m staying off of this one. I could see it being blow-out city for “The Mayor” and the Iowa St. Cyclones. However, K-State has surprised me a couple times this season already. I respect the past performances (and the line). The one Big 12 game I will wager is to favor Baylor -6 at home against Texas. I think Texas has over-performed and Baylor is pissed it just got shielded by KU despite a most feisty effort. I’d just put $5 on a Baylor cover, for the purposes of this exercise.
Richmond s getting 3 1/2 points after beating UMASS against Dayton? And the Spiders are hosting? Throw a shekel ($5) on Richmond to win this game outright. Why not? They’re home and they’re on a roll. Back-to-back wins against UMASS and Dayton can be a season-changer, and they know that.
We’re up to $45 wagered, on this fictitious exercise.
Florida is awesome, but Tennessee is desperate for a program win. I will take the Volunteers $5 money line and $6 getting the 9 points. This means if they cover, but don’t win, I break even. However, I profit $17.75 for my measly $5 if they win outright. If they get blown out, obviously I lose the $11 bucks. Let’s do it (hypothetically).
Michigan State Michigan is the match up of the day. You know why? Because they are tightly matched up, especially because of the injuries Sparty is facing. I think Michigan St. will win at home because senior Appling is facing freshman Walton at point. But, it’s the highlight game of the day for a reason, and I’ll wager $24 that Michigan covers 6.
$20 bucks left. $5 on Georgetown cover 11 1/2, $5 on Georgetown money line (+500) at Creighton. $10 on BYU to cover 7 1/2 against Gonzaga. I like BYU’s freshman center to keep this one interesting, and BYU has underperformed versus expectations. I think the Gonzaga Bulldogs to squeak out a close one.
I only took 1 favorite compared to 6 underdogs. But, that’s what I do. I am shopping for great values and simulating the type of approach I’ll take during March Madness. Matt’s ATS is 22-17 after a disappointing 3-4 last week. That’s only 56% on the year. My goal is to head into Vegas this March at least 60% on the season. Let’s see how I fare when we take into account more practical pricing scenarios.
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