Tag Archives: sports betting

Futures Tickets for Resale by the College Basketball Ey Test Blog

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College basketball futures betting becomes even more dynamic once the Sweet 16 bracket is set, as fans and bettors look for creative ways to manage risk, lock in profit, or simply stay connected to their favorite teams’ championship runs. At CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com, readers can follow along as select NCAA Tournament futures tickets are occasionally listed on the PropSwap resale marketplace, giving the broader fan community a chance to buy into live March Madness storylines. Below is a look at current and recent listings that have generated interest.

Matty D. Spots 4 of the Sweet 16 in his “Cinderella Super Sleeper” Article

Before this tournament began, blogger Matty D. revealed these top 10 Cinderella “Super Sleepers.” All of the picks included teams with odds no more expensive than 50-1. For example, Arkansas was the chalky of the picks at 50-1 before the tournament began. This top 10 list started as a top 5 list before Selection Sunday, but was expanded to a top 10 list after the original top 5 included 4 teams that were put in the region with Arizona on Selection Sunday.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Futures Ticket Resale Market Gains Attention as Sweet 16 Odds Take Shape

As the Sweet 16 field settles and college basketball future odds continue to evolve, Nebraska has quietly become one of the more fascinating storylines in the secondary betting marketplace. A previously listed Nebraska national championship futures ticket priced at $18.67 has already sold on PropSwap, ultimately drawing enough interest to be bid up to $20.00 before closing.

[CLICK HERE TO SHOP FOR OUR NEWEST NEBRASKA TICKET ON PROPSWAP]

The ticket, posted by CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com blogger Matty D., reflected the perspective of a dedicated college basketball follower engaging with fellow fans in the resale futures market rather than any type of high-profile betting personality. The lighthearted pricing reference to Nebraska’s 1867 statehood added personality to the listing and helped spark conversation among bettors tracking Sweet 16 championship odds and March Madness futures value. After being listed for $18.67, that ticket got bid up to sell for $20.00.

PropSwap is one of the leading platforms for buying and selling live sports betting tickets. The earlier Nebraska futures listing — promoted alongside a vintage pioneer-style image — gained additional visibility when it was retweeted by PropSwap’s official account.

Now, a new Nebraska futures ticket — currently visible in the marketplace at significantly longer odds — will present what could be described as “an affordable option for Cornhusker fans or college basketball enthusiasts, alike.” With only sixteen teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament, bettors searching for college basketball future odds today, Sweet 16 sleeper bets, or Nebraska championship betting value are increasingly monitoring resale platforms in addition to traditional sportsbooks.

Fan Energy Traveling Far Beyond Lincoln

The enthusiasm surrounding Nebraska’s postseason surge has been impossible to ignore. Cornhusker supporters notably filled large portions of the arena in Oklahoma City, traveling more than 400 miles from Lincoln to help push their team toward a memorable tournament victory against Vanderbilt.

For many longtime supporters, the Sweet 16 run represents not just bracket success but a shared experience rooted in loyalty and belief. That emotional investment often carries into the betting markets, where futures tickets become both speculative assets and symbolic keepsakes tied to a historic season.

St. John’s + New York Knicks Futures Parlay Gaining Momentum

Meanwhile, a previously discussed St. John’s national championship and New York Knicks NBA Finals parlay ticket has continued to rise in perceived value after St. John’s defeated Kansas to advance into the Sweet 16. As tournament volatility increases, combined futures positions like this one are drawing additional attention from bettors seeking upside tied to New York-area championship optimism.

Click here to learn more about the value of this St. John’s Knicks combo ticket.

St. John’s New York Knicks Futures Parlay to a Win Championship Gaining Value

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As March basketball fever builds in New York, fans of St. John’s basketball, the New York Knicks, and passionate sports bettors alike are beginning to dream about a historic championship run. With Madison Square Garden once again at the center of the story, optimism is fueled by the resurgence of the Red Storm under Rick Pitino and the Knicks’ playoff push led by Jalen Brunson. This essay explores the emotional pull of New York hoops nostalgia, the rising championship odds, and the excitement surrounding a potential Knicks–St. John’s title parlay.

BY MATTY D.

An Essay that Imagines a St. John’s and New York Knicks Championship Year

There’s something magical about both St. John’s and the New York Knicks being relevant as spring begins.

The snow thaws…and the salt needs to be swept so that we can get these black sneakers in some pavement! 

Growing up in New York State during the 1990s, there were the Johnny’s Felipe Lopez years aligned with Patrick Ewing’s crew.

I’m still not over how my Knicks didn’t pick Ron Artest in the draft.

The Emerald City.
“The World’s Most Famous Arena.”

Now, as Rick Pitino of all people is gracing the sidelines in style for St John’s, this storyline has some major juice.

This next chapter features a New York Knicks team led by Jalen Brunson and a cast of players that continues to show signs of its depth.

This version of the Red Storm, also runs deep and is also led by the blue collar energy of Zuby.  True fans are already looking at what pick the Knicks have in the draft so that we can get this guy.  

Madison Square Garden, the site of some of the most memorable games in St John’s basketball history… could it also be this season’s home for the NBA Finals for its full time tenant? 

An MSG parlay of a Knicks St John’s combo future – both to win a championship – started at 98–1 at the end of February.  Now this joint ticket is 62-1.

Stay tuned to collegebasketballeyetest.com where this ticket might be available for sale, soon.

Suspect Spreads Saturday Season Record: Above .500 while Consistently Spotting Live Underdogs

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BY MATTY D. and CHATGPT

Underdog Reads Continue to Deliver Betting Value as Season ATS Record Stays Profitable

The final tune-up before the NCAA Tournament could not have gone much better, as the Suspect Spreads card closed the regular season with a 7–2 performance against the spread. That strong finish pushed the overall campaign further into profitable territory, bringing the cumulative season mark to 44–35 ATS, a solid clip above the traditional break-even point. The late surge reinforces the broader season-long trend of successfully identifying competitive underdogs and short-number spreads, providing added confidence as the focus now shifts from regular-season edges to the unique volatility of March Madness.

The NIL has brought a new era of college basketball. Freshmen took over the 2025-2026 season. A few key injuries also added to the volatile nature of the season. These betting-market dynamics have repeatedly created opportunities for sharp reads on competitive teams catching short numbers. In those environments, CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com author Matty D. repeatedly spots live dogs who can outperform expectations, reinforcing the broader edge demonstrated throughout the season.

Zooming out to the broader body of work, the selections continue to reflect a profitable overall profile. The updated full-season mark now stands at 44–35 against the spread, good for a 55.7% winning percentage, comfortably clearing the traditional break-even threshold in standard wagering markets. Perhaps more telling is how the strongest momentum developed during the late-January through mid-February window, when the card produced a 31–24 ATS surge. That sustained success highlights how matchup-driven evaluation and underdog identification can generate meaningful betting value as conference play intensifies and public perception struggles to keep pace with evolving team form.

*ATS stands for Against the Spread.

The #SuspectSpreadsSaturday experiment has quietly remained profitable as the college basketball season has progressed.

College Basketball ATS Picks Cold in January, Warm Up in February

That success is even more notable considering how uneven the beginning of the season was. The very first week of picks on January 3rd produced a 5–7 ATS result, dropping the running season record to 9–15 after two weeks. The early cards leaned heavily toward favorites like Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky while mixing in a few underdogs such as Auburn and Missouri. The results were volatile, but the week did produce several correct reads including Auburn, Houston, Iowa, Purdue, and Missouri covering their numbers.

The following week on January 10th continued the experimental phase. The handwritten card included Tennessee +4.5, UConn -19.5, Houston -2.5, LSU +13.5, Iowa State -18.5, Arizona -6.5, and Texas Tech -6.5. After comparing those picks with the game results from that Saturday slate, the card finished approximately 4–3 ATS, with Tennessee, Houston, Arizona, and Texas Tech providing covers while the larger favorites such as UConn and Iowa State struggled to justify the heavy numbers. That week provided an early hint of what would become a recurring pattern: moderate spreads and competitive underdogs were more reliable than laying big numbers with national contenders.

Once the calendar flipped deeper into conference play, the results began to stabilize. From January 17 onward, the cards produced a 31–24 ATS run, highlighted by a 7–2 week on January 24th and a 5–2 week on February 21st. One particularly encouraging trend has been success with two-possession underdogs in the +3.5 to +6.5 range. Teams such as Minnesota (+4.5), North Carolina (+6.5), Illinois (+5.5), Baylor (+6.5), Tennessee (+3.5), Arizona (+5.5), and USC (+4.5) frequently fell into this window. Those plays represented a meaningful portion of the winning selections, suggesting that the approach is effectively identifying spots where the betting market slightly overrates favorites in competitive matchups.

Another subtle trend is that the picks have performed best when fading momentum or brand-name bias surrounding major programs. Underdogs like Ole Miss, Illinois, and Minnesota produced several of the most profitable covers, while weeks with heavier favorite exposure — such as the 3–6 card most recently — tended to produce the most volatility. Still, the broader trajectory remains encouraging. After beginning the season below .500, the mid-season correction to a 56% ATS clip since January 17th suggests the Suspect Spreads Saturday strategy is trending upward just as the college basketball calendar approaches conference tournaments and March Madness, where betting markets historically become even more inefficient.

NCAAB Best Betting Future Values for College Basketball Futures in 2026

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Now that the NFL season is over, it’s time to get serious about which teams I would invest in as future values for the 2025-2026 Men’s College Basketball season and March Madness. Here are some teams that I would consider for a low risk, high-reward payoff in the futures market.

BY MATTY D.

For example, I had a ticket for Oregon to win a national football title at 8-1 before the night began. After the Miami Hurricanes beat the odds-on favorite for a national title, the Ohio State Buckeyes, that same ticket became 6-1 (theoretically increasing in value 25%).

Volatile Kentucky Futures Worth Monitoring for Low Risk High Reward Payoff

Even by Kentucky standards, this college basketball season has been very dramatic. There have been big highs and low lows. Head coach Mark Pope was a champion as a player with the 1996 Kentucky team. Yet, after a so-so start to the 2025-2026, some Kentucky fans were calling for his job. After high profile back-to-back wins against Indiana and St. John’s to finish 2025, it was the consecutive losses to Alabama and Missouri to start 2026 that got Wildcats fans twisted.

Kentucky’s futures value to win a national championship has fluctuated anywhere from the 40-1 territory to sitting around 100-1 in mid February (according to DraftKings NCAAB futures market).

Kentucky’s volatile future value can also be contributed to the health status of key players.

Starting point guard Jaland Lowe is out for the season with a shoulder injury and super athletic big man (and Arizona State transfer) Jayden Quaintance has been missing a slew of games with a knee injury. The Wildcats had won 8 of 9 games without Quaintance is a nice run in mid-January to mid-February before getting dominated by a bigger Florida bunch.

The Lexington Herald Leader was reporting in mid-February how Quaintance’s draft stock was decreasing due to his extended absence with that knee injury. If he made a triumphant return to the lineup in March, that would be a major boost to the stock of a program that we know has a high ceiling.

Kentucky’s season has not been all about inconsistency. Combo guard Otega Oweh has been the model of consistency. He has shown an ability to shoulder the load and lead this Cats bunch.

Over that 8-of-9 run, Oweh regularly posted 20-plus points while contributing across the stat sheet — mixing efficient shooting with rebounds, assists, and timely defensive plays that helped stabilize Kentucky’s offense when other key pieces were banged up. His scoring spurts against Ohio State, Tennessee, and Arkansas weren’t just box-score padding; they shifted momentum in games where Kentucky needed a go-to option, and his willingness to shoulder that responsibility underscored the Wildcats’ potential when their stars are firing on all cylinders. That blend of production and poise from Oweh during their best stretch this season crystallizes just how high this Kentucky roster can rise when roles are clear and confidence is high.

https://www.covers.com/sport/basketball/ncaab/teams/main/kentucky-wildcats/injuries

Looking for even longer odds chances to snag a crazy underdog pick for March Madness 2026?
Click here to see more of my favorite futures values and underdogs for a NCAAB Championship.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Harvesting the Best Tourney Resume No one is Talking About

Even as Nebraska knocked off top 10 ranked Michigan State in dramatic fashion in a January 2nd home game, the oddsmakers kept disrespecting the Huskers. Nebraska stood as a 20-1 long-shot to make a Final Four on FanDuel, despite having one of America’s best (and still undefeated) records.

Joe Lunardi’s December 30th bracketology had them as a 4 seed in the West Region, but Monday’s AP Top 25 voting might have them as the 4th best ranked team in the nation.

It’s hard to believe that head coach Fred Hoiberg is already in his seventh season as head man at Nebraska, after his “mayoral” status at the Hilton Coliseum with Iowa State. However, his family legacy is continuing in Lincoln this season in legendary fashion. He is coaching his son to an undefeated start of the season (well into 2026) overseeing a program that his grandfather coached for 9 seasons starting in the 1950s. This team is loaded with storylines that any TV producer at CBS Sports would salivate over during March Madness. It could be time that you put a shekel on the huskers.

Nebraska maxed out at a value around 25-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. At Valentine’s Day where the week saw a dramatic overtime loss to Purdue and a beat-down of Northwestern, I still love this team as a future value of 10-1 to reach a Final Four.

Utah State 200-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

Utah State delivered one of the more eye-opening results of February by dominating Memphis in a rare non-conference matchup of potential bubble teams, Utah State and the Memphis Tigers on Valentine’s Day. Even with that kind of résumé-defining performance on a national stage, the Aggies’ futures value has remained hovering around 200-1 to win a championship, the type of number that suggests the market still hasn’t fully caught up to how solid this group really is.

Someone is coming out of the Mountain West grandfathered in as the annual 7 through 11 seed, and this veteran laden bunch is as good a bet as any to win a few games.

Before conference play, Utah State Aggies quietly built a strong résumé for bettors seeking high-quality future value picks. The Aggies paired legitimate wins over programs like VCU and Tulane with dominant blowouts of Davidson, Charlotte, and Colorado State, showing both floor and ceiling. That blend of NET-relevant victories and decisive margins signaled a team undervalued nationally entering league play.

College Basketball Eye Test Notebook Logging a Spreadsheet of values 2025-2026

Arizona and Iowa are also two teams whose odds I am watching closely. Listed below is a simple chart comparing NCAAB Futures on two major Sportsbooks in December of 2025.

Iowa left the circle of trust on Valentine’s Day after being dominated by Purdue. They also struggled mightily against a bigger Illinois team in early January, exposing their lack of size.

Best Underdog Future Values to Find Under the Christmas Tree

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College basketball future tickets for an underdog team to win the national championship in 2026 could make for a perfect stocking stuffer for 2025. Here are a few tickets I’d love to see under my Christmas tree.

BY MATTY D.

Big 10 offers ample opportunities for high value underdogs in NCAAB Futures market

Let’s start our search for future values in the Big 10 Conference, where the league is making a sound argument as being the nation’s best league, with multiple different suitors for a Final Four bid. Nebraska is the poster child for the high ceiling teams within this group. In mid-November, you could find the Cornhuskers around 250-1 to win it all. Now, after winning its first 12 games and scoring key resume win against Illinois, K-State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Creighton, this team is still a bargain at 60-1.

Here are some more Big 10 teams to consider for your portfolio. Michigan State stands at 20-1, Illinois 22-1, Iowa at 100-1, and Indiana at 120-1. Those odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and posted on Christmas Eve.

Of course, Michigan stands alone at the top with the biggest amount of respect given in the futures market currently. They are +450 to win it all. That’s at least twice as expensive as any other team in the nation.

Which favorite is the best future value to win the 2026 college basketball championship?

With the Wolverines sitting at +450, that leaves a fleet of still great value picks around that 10-1 neighborhood. Arizona is +850, UCONN 10-1, and Duke 11-1. That group is followed by Iowa State, Purdue, and Houston at 12-1 or 13-1.

From that group, I would choose Arizona and Duke. In fact, I could easily see these teams steamrolling the competition to represent the West and East regions respectively in the national championship game itself. Having two tickets at +850 and 11-1 with that championship matchup together would be a good problem to have.

If those odds aren’t cheap enough for your liking, consider this. This is also the time of the sports calendar year where NFL teams are starting to separate themselves and either pass the eye test, or not. While teams like the Buccaneers, Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs are all suffering some unlikely knockout punches, teams like the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers are showing some incredible value.

For example, a $5 bet on the 49ers to win the NFC combined with Arizona to win the championship would net $332.

Super sleeper underdogs who could compete in the 2026 March Madness tournament

As they say, “get in the dance and anything can happen.”

Here are some crazy underdogs that I am keeping an eye on at the 100-1 and lower vicinity.

Please note that most of these teams would have to win their own conference tournament championship to enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

St. Mary’s is 250-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

The Gaels actually have a recent history of making the tournament as an at large team, thanks in part to its conference mate Gonzaga’s gravitational pull as a national power plus its holding its own against those Bulldogs. This year, St. Mary’s returns an impressive veteran core that includes Harry Wessels and Paulius Murauskas, plus super sophomores Mikey Lewis and Andrew McKeever. McKeever, a 7 foot 2 center from California is averaging nearly a double double after 13 games (11-2 in that stretch).

Utah State 200-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

Someone is coming out of the Mountain West grandfathered in as the annual 7 through 11 seed, and this veteran laden bunch is as good a bet as any to win a few games.

Before conference play, Utah State Aggies quietly built a strong résumé for bettors seeking high-quality future value picks. The Aggies paired legitimate wins over programs like VCU and Tulane with dominant blowouts of Davidson, Charlotte, and Colorado State, showing both floor and ceiling. That blend of NET-relevant victories and decisive margins signaled a team undervalued nationally entering league play.

South Florida Bulls at +280 to win the American Conference

Before conference play fully shapes the market, the South Florida Bulls profile as an appealing future value bet under head coach Bryan Hodgson. Coming from the Nate Oats coaching tree, Hodgson emphasizes pace, spacing, and high-volume three-point shooting. His track record of rapid turnarounds and top-50 offenses suggests South Florida’s relentless attack could outperform preseason expectations. You cannot find South Florida on futures markets just yet, so we will leave the article here with a nasty haymaker pick. If you want to play this team, you can grab them at +280 to win their conference and add to that position if/when they make the tournament that way.

Sweet 16 Betting Breakdown: Thursday’s Best Against the Spread Picks

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Looking for smart betting picks for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups? This article breaks down four key NCAA Tournament games, with against-the-spread predictions for Michigan vs. Auburn, Michigan State vs. Ole Miss, BYU vs. Alabama, and Arizona vs. Duke. See which underdogs have value and which favorites are poised to cover based on matchups that pass the eye test.

It’s funny how reunions of both friends and foes are a constant theme of the college basketball tournament. Caleb Love will, again, be battling with his former in-conference rival, Duke. As you know, Love played for years at UNC where there were some classic clashes with the Blue Devils.

Click here to read 6 more trends fixed as annual traditions during March Madness

Michigan +8.5 vs. Auburn College Basketball Prediction, Pick
Michigan enters this Sweet 16 matchup with one of the biggest frontcourts still standing. Auburn might be the higher seed, but the Wolverines can lean on their size and physicality to dictate the terms of this game. The rebounding edge is where this could tilt. Second-chance points, long possessions—those all benefit Michigan’s style of play. Auburn will try to run, but Michigan has enough discipline and toughness to weather that storm. It’s a tall task to win outright, but getting eight-and-a-half points here looks appealing.

Michigan State -3.5 vs. Ole Miss College Basketball Prediction, Pick
It’s March. And that means one thing: Tom Izzo. His teams tend to tighten up their execution just when other squads start fraying. This version of the Spartans is classic Izzo—experienced guards, versatile forwards, and an edge in physical matchups like this one. Ole Miss has impressed with some big wins to get here, but Michigan State’s defense and discipline should win out in the late possessions. Laying 3.5 with Izzo in March? That always looks good to the eye.

BYU +4.5 vs. Alabama College Basketball Prediction, Pick

This is the most intriguing game of the night for me. Alabama is deep and dangerous, no doubt. But BYU is one of the few teams in the country that can go possession-for-possession with them and keep up the scoring. The Cougars have sharpshooters at every position and play with a pace and confidence that won’t shrink against the Crimson Tide’s press and length. In any 5-on-5 set, BYU can match Alabama bucket for bucket. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cougars win this one outright, and grabbing 4.5 points in a shootout like this looks like a lock.

Arizona +8.5 vs. Duke College Basketball Prediction, Pick

This is where things get tricky. Arizona has the physical tools and offensive firepower to give Duke problems—especially in transition. The Wildcats move the ball well and know how to punish mismatches. But let’s be real: Duke is playing with an NBA showcase right now. They’ve got four, maybe five pros on the floor, and they’re all playing like it’s draft week. Arizona should keep this tight with their own versatility, but I’m not sold on them pulling it out late. Still, 8.5 points feels like too many in a game with this much top-end talent. Arizona to cover looks like a confident lean, even if the Blue Devils escape with the W.

Friday’s March Madness Games, Odds, Picks from College Basketball Eye Test

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On Thursday the Men’s College Basketball Tournament got started in fitting fashion with two underdogs looking like title contenders but now it’s time to quickly turn attention to Friday’s games. Drake and McNeese State opened eyes across the nation not only beating their power conference opponents (Missouri and Clemson respectively), but looking like a dark-horse candidate for a Final 4 run in the process.

Click here for the Ultimate College Basketball Blog Hub

Yale got yanked from the tournament. They were my lone futures underdog that didn’t survive Thursday’s action. See my top 4 remaining underdog futures by clicking here.

1. Liberty +6.5 vs. Oregon (Grade: A+)

Liberty getting 6.5 against Oregon felt like a steal, and this one tops the list for good reason. The Flames have been a tough out all year with a disciplined system and three-point shooting that can keep them in any game. Colin Porter is a jitter bug undersized point guard who is fun to watch but hard to stay in front of. Catching nearly a touchdown against an Oregon team still figuring itself out? Chef’s kiss.

2. Grand Canyon +10.5 vs. Maryland (Grade: A)

This one had “sharp” written all over it. Grand Canyon has quietly become a defensive juggernaut in their conference, and catching double digits against an up-and-down Maryland squad was just too good to pass up. Even more appealing: Terps head coach Kevin Willard is surrounded by speculation as the potential next Villanova hire. With that kind of distraction hovering over the program, 10.5 points looks even tastier.

3. UConn ML vs. Oklahoma (Grade: A-)

Taking the reigning champs on the money line at a reasonable -192 was a smart anchor to this parlay. UConn’s size, depth, and defensive prowess make them a reliable choice in high-pressure games like this one, and Oklahoma just doesn’t have the tools to match them bucket-for-bucket.

4. Marquette ML vs. New Mexico (Grade: A-)

Another safe money line pick that added stability to the slate. Marquette’s high-octane offense and Shaka Smart’s defensive scheme give them an edge over New Mexico, even if the Lobos are no slouches. Laying -166 felt like a worthy investment.

5. Baylor +1.5 vs. Mississippi State (Grade: A-)

Catching points with Baylor? Yes, please. This Bears team is deep and battle-tested, and while Mississippi State is gritty, they don’t quite have the offensive firepower to pull away. This one had “tight game decided late” written all over it—perfect for that +1.5.

6. Bryant +17.5 vs. Michigan State (Grade: A-)

Taking Bryant with the points may have raised some eyebrows, but 17.5 is a lot to cover, even for Michigan State. Bryant has enough shooters and tempo control to keep it respectable, and the Spartans haven’t exactly been lighting it up offensively this season.

HALFTIME: You’ve reached the half-way mark of this article. Bookmark your next click…

🏆 Final 4 Fan-Favorite Articles:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀

7. Iowa State -14.5 vs. Lipscomb (Grade: A-)

A big number to lay, but Iowa State’s defense can suffocate mid-majors like Lipscomb. Once the Cyclones get rolling, they’re capable of creating scoring runs that blow things open fast. This felt like a smart move, even with the wide spread.

8. Arizona -13.5 vs. Akron (Grade: B+)

Arizona has the firepower to cover this kind of spread, but Akron isn’t a pushover. This pick leaned on Arizona’s athletic edge and transition game, which can turn a close game into a rout in a matter of minutes. Solid pick, just a bit of a sweat.

9. Alabama -22.5 vs. Robert Morris (Grade: B+)

This was a swing for the fences. Alabama can certainly run it up, and Robert Morris simply doesn’t have the horses to hang, but covering 22.5 requires perfection. High upside, but some risk baked in.

10. Saint Mary’s ML vs. Vanderbilt (Grade: B)

This one was all about trusting the system. Saint Mary’s grinds teams down and controls tempo as well as anyone, but Vanderbilt is athletic enough to throw them off rhythm. Still, at -170, it was a calculated play that made sense. St. Mary’s is one of my favorite values for futures betting. Click here to see which of those underdog teams are still remaining.

11. Kentucky -10.5 vs. Troy (Grade: B-)

Kentucky should absolutely take care of business against Troy, even on a neutral court. But covering 10.5 depends on which version of the Wildcats shows up. They’ve been erratic at times, especially with young lineups, which makes this one a little dicey despite the talent gap.

12. Memphis +2.5 vs. Colorado State (Grade: C-)

This was the most volatile pick on the card. Memphis has talent, but they’re wildly inconsistent, and Colorado State is one of those fundamentally sound teams that just doesn’t beat itself. Taking Memphis here was a gut play—and the gut doesn’t always win.

Exciting Thursday Games: Betting Insights and Predictions for March Madness 2025

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The madness has arrived, and with it comes the challenge of picking winners against the spread. With upsets brewing and lines set to tempt bettors, I’m locking in my best plays for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The key? Taking value where the market gives it and, in the case of BYU and Michigan, paying a small premium on the money line to avoid sweating the points.

🏆 Final 4 Fan-Favorite Articles:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀

Creighton (+2.5) vs. Louisville

This game should be an old-fashioned pick ‘em. Both teams have the talent to make a run, and I don’t see a clear favorite here. When that’s the case, I’m gladly taking the 2.5 points with Creighton, knowing they have just as much of a chance to win outright as Louisville.

High Point (+8.5) vs. Purdue

Purdue isn’t a No. 1 seed this year, but they still have the size and experience to be dangerous. That said, High Point is built to cover this spread. Their perimeter shooting and ability to speed up the pace make them a sneaky play at +8.5.

Montana (+16.5) vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin plays a slow, grinding style, which makes covering a big number like 16.5 tough. Montana should be able to keep this game within reach simply by limiting possessions and playing solid defense.

McNeese State (+7.5) vs. Clemson

McNeese is one of the strongest mid-majors in this tournament, and they match up well against Clemson. Their defense and ability to control the tempo make them a live dog here. I’ll take the 7.5 points with confidence.

BYU (Money Line, -142) vs. VCU

Rather than sweating BYU covering the spread, I’m backing them on the money line at -142. The Cougars have the edge in talent and efficiency, and I trust them to win outright without worrying about VCU sneaking in a late cover.

Georgia (+6.5) vs. Gonzaga

This isn’t the same dominant Gonzaga team we’ve seen in years past. Georgia has the athleticism to keep this one close, and they’re more than capable of hanging within 6.5 points.

Arkansas (+4.5) vs. Kansas

Kansas has been shaky down the stretch, and Arkansas has the athleticism and defensive intensity to make this a dogfight. With Kansas showing inconsistency, I’ll take the Razorbacks and the 4.5 points.

Yale (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M

The Ivy League has a history of bracket-busting, and Yale fits the mold of a team that can make things uncomfortable for a higher seed. Their methodical offense and tough defense should keep this game close, making 7.5 points an easy take.

What makes Yale one of the best overall underdogs in the tournament is their continuity and discipline. The Bulldogs don’t rely on one or two star players; they execute as a unit, making them less susceptible to off-nights from individual performers. They also control tempo exceptionally well, which forces more athletic teams into uncomfortable half-court battles. That’s a nightmare for an opponent like Texas A&M, which thrives in transition. If you’re looking for an underdog with serious long-term value, Yale deserves your attention.

Click here to check out the full top 5 underdogs worth backing for futures!

Drake (+6.5) vs. Missouri

Drake has already proven they can compete with Power Five schools. Missouri has been inconsistent, and this feels like a classic mid-major value pick. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Drake wins outright.

Beyond this game, Drake is one of the best underdog teams in the entire tournament field. The biggest reason? Bennett Stirtz. He’s the smoothest point guard in the country that no one is talking about. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent from the Kansas City area and transfers from Northwest Missouri State, where new head coach Ben McCollum has built a championship-winning culture.

McCollum’s dominance at the Division II level—where he won four national titles and posted an 81.2% career win rate—is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His system is proven, and now he has the resources and talent to execute it on a larger stage. Expect his winning mentality and attention to detail to make Drake one of the most dangerous low seeds in the entire field.

Click here to see why Drake made my top 5 underdogs for futures!

Michigan (Money Line, -150) vs. UC San Diego

Another spot where I’m avoiding the spread and simply backing Michigan to win outright. UC San Diego is no pushover, but Michigan’s talent gap should be enough to get the job done. I’ll take the money line at -150 rather than sweating a possible tight finish.

UNC Wilmington (+15.5) vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech can score, but they also allow teams to hang around. UNC Wilmington has the offensive tools to keep this from getting out of hand, making 15.5 points too good to pass up.

This game also has a few key injuries to consider. Click here for our injury tracker.

St. John’s (-18.5) vs. Omaha

St. John’s is built to run teams out of the gym, and Omaha doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. When the Red Storm get rolling, they don’t let up, and I expect this one to be over early. Lay the 18.5 and trust the blowout.

Thursday’s Games with Huge Favorites

There are a handful of Thursday games that I’m passing on simply because the spreads are too outrageous to find real value. These include Auburn vs. Alabama State/Saint Francis, Florida vs. Norfolk State, Duke vs. American/Mount St. Mary’s, Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville, and Tennessee vs. Wofford. These matchups feature top-seeded teams against overmatched opponents, where the favorites are more than capable of running away with the game—but covering a massive number in the first round is always a gamble. While a few of these underdogs might hang around early, there’s too much risk in relying on them to keep it close for 40 minutes or expecting the favorites to stay locked in for a full blowout cover. Sometimes, the best play is no play at all.

Final Thoughts

This tournament is full of value plays, and I’m taking a mix of live underdogs and sharp money line bets to maximize profit potential. BYU and Michigan are worth paying a small premium to avoid the spread, while teams like Drake, Yale, and McNeese could all exceed expectations. If you’re looking for underdogs that can make a deep run, check out the full list of the top 5 underdogs for futures bets!

March is Here! College Basketball Picks for the First Day of the Month

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March is finally here, and with it comes the excitement of college basketball’s most crucial stretch. With conference tournaments looming and Selection Sunday approaching, every game carries weight. Let’s break down today’s key matchups and make some predictions.

Click here to see Matty D’s season record against the spread for college hoops!

Clemson (-7.5) at Virginia

Clemson has been one of the most impressive underdogs throughout the season, showing strong performances against top-tier teams. Their size and experience give them a major advantage against a Virginia squad that has struggled to find consistency. Look for Clemson to control the game on both ends and cover the 7.5-point spread.

Prediction: Clemson covers (-7.5)

Today’s odds are being provided by DraftKings Sportsbook as a reference.

Maryland (-5.5) at Penn State

Maryland is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State, but this matchup against an inconsistent Penn State team presents a great opportunity for the Terrapins to bounce back. With a stronger defensive presence and the ability to capitalize on Penn State’s lapses, Maryland should be able to win and cover the spread.

Fun fact: Maryland star Julian Reese is the brother of WNBA Star Angel Reese.
Click here to see more family ties in college hoops with sons of NBA stars!

Prediction: Maryland covers (-5.5)

Providence at UConn (-6.5)

Rivalry games are always tricky to predict. This matchup between Providence and UConn is no exception. UConn has been dominant in stretches but has shown some vulnerability. Providence, on the other hand, always plays tough in these contests. Six and a half points might be too much to lay in a rivalry battle, so this one could go either way.

Prediction: Providence covers (+6.5)

Butler at Villanova (-7.5)

Villanova looked like a tournament team just a few weeks ago, but their recent form has been shaky. The 6.5-point spread is a bit too generous for a Villanova team that hasn’t been at its best lately. Butler is fighting to finish as a .500 team this season, but just showed some feisty play against a top 10 St. John’s team. Give me the Bulldogs!

Prediction: Butler covers (+7.5)

Miami at North Carolina (-17.5)

North Carolina might be making the ultimate correction to their season in a last ditch effort to compete for an ACC (tournament) championship. However, 17.5 points is a massive spread in any conference game. While Miami has been blown out several times this season, they might be able to keep this one within reach. Still, UNC is the better team by far, and Miami’s defensive issues could make this an uphill battle for them. I am honestly staying away from this game altogether. If you need to pick this game, go with Miami!

(Of course, you should never feel like you need to make a sports betting pick. If you are struggling with a gambling addiction, help is available. For support, call 1-800-Gambler or visit this site).

Prediction: North Carolina wins, but Miami covers (+17.5)

Auburn at Kentucky (+5.5)

Auburn has been playing well, but they are due for an outright loss. Kentucky, playing at home, will have the crowd behind them and the talent to pull off the upset. Given Auburn’s recent trends and Kentucky’s potential for a big win, this could be the game where Auburn stumbles.

Prediction: Kentucky wins outright (+5.5)

March basketball is here, and the stakes are only going to get higher. Keep an eye on these games, and check back for more predictions as we get closer to tournament time!

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Arkansas (+1) at South Carolina

Coach John Calipari has the experience to guide Arkansas through a tough road test at South Carolina. With a tight spread, this game could come down to the wire, but Arkansas should have just enough to cover.

Prediction: Arkansas covers (+1)

Alabama (+3.5) at Tennessee

Alabama is hitting its stride at the right time, scoring at an elite level. While Tennessee is formidable at home, Alabama has a real shot to not only cover but also win outright.

Prediction: Alabama covers (+3.5) and could win outright

Oregon (-7.5) vs. USC

Oregon is coming off an inspirational comeback win against Wisconsin, and that momentum should carry over into this matchup. USC has been inconsistent, and Oregon’s depth and confidence should be enough to secure a comfortable win.

Prediction: Oregon covers (-7.5)

Houston (-13.5) vs. Cincinnati

Houston has the talent to dominate this matchup, but Cincinnati might keep it closer in the first half before the Cougars pull away late.

Prediction: Houston covers (-13.5), but not on the first-half line

Missouri (-2.5) at Vanderbilt

Missouri should be able to handle Vanderbilt on the road and still cover the 2.5-point spread. Their ability to close out games should help them secure the win.

Prediction: Missouri covers (-2.5)

Arizona State (+7.5) at Utah

Arizona State is getting too many points against a Utah team that just lost its head coach. This is the pick of the day, as Arizona State should keep this game close, if not win outright.

Prediction: Arizona State covers (+7.5) – Pick of the Day

Georgia (+4.5) at Texas

Texas tends to play close games, and Georgia is a live underdog in this spot. Expect Georgia to keep this one tight and potentially steal a win.

Prediction: Georgia covers (+4.5)

March basketball is here, and the stakes are only going to get higher. Keep an eye on these games, and check back for more predictions as we get closer to tournament time!

BYU (-10.5) vs. West Virginia

BYU has the home-court advantage and the firepower to handle West Virginia. The Mountaineers have struggled to find consistency this season, making this a prime spot for BYU to cover the double-digit spread.

Prediction: BYU covers (-10.5)

Texas A&M (+9.5) at Florida

Texas A&M plays its best basketball as an underdog, and after a surprising home loss to Vanderbilt, the Aggies will be looking for a strong response. Florida has been solid but not dominant, making this a great opportunity for Texas A&M to keep the game close and cover the spread.

Prediction: Texas A&M covers (+9.5)

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Men’s College Basketball Picks Against the Spread for February 22, 2025

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Rolling Out of Bed with College Basketball Picks

Matty D here from CollegeBasketballItest.com, and I’m back again with another round of early college basketball picks. This approach worked well for me last week, and I’m looking to keep the momentum going. Let’s dive into some suspect spreads and intriguing matchups from today’s slate.

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M is favored by 1.5 points in this matchup against Tennessee. This might come as a surprise considering I’ve been high on Texas A&M as a potential championship contender at 40 or 50 to 1 odds. However, despite my faith in the Aggies, I think Tennessee is the better team. The Vols haven’t played to their full potential over the last month, but I see this as a good spot for them. I’m taking Tennessee and the 1.5 points here.

Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Oregon is an 8.5-point underdog against Wisconsin. The Badgers have been playing strong basketball recently, but Oregon is fighting for a tournament spot, and 8.5 points is a lot to be giving up. I like Oregon to cover in this one.

Florida State vs. Louisville

Louisville is favored by 13.5 points against Florida State. The Seminoles have struggled lately, and with Louisville’s up-tempo style of play under head coach Pat Kelsey, I think they have the potential to cover the spread. They’re a top-25 team, and with their current momentum, they could handle this one convincingly.

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia

West Virginia is laying 11.5 points against Texas Tech. This is a tough game to call, especially with West Virginia missing one of its key players, Tucker DeVries, whose father, Darian DeVries, is the team’s head coach. If I had to pick, I’d lean toward West Virginia, but this might be a game to avoid altogether.

Iowa State vs. Houston

One of the marquee matchups of the day features Iowa State taking on Houston. Both teams are elite defensively and could make deep tournament runs. Surprisingly, Iowa State is getting 11.5 points. In what should be a low-scoring defensive battle, that’s a big number to be receiving. I like Iowa State to cover, especially since they might be looking for a bounce-back performance after a disappointing showing recently.

Georgia vs. Auburn

Auburn is a 16.5-point favorite against Georgia. The Bulldogs have been a tough out for some SEC teams this season, making this a tricky game. I’m staying away from this one because I don’t want to be sweating in the final moments to see if Auburn covers or not.

Clemson vs. SMU

SMU put on an offensive clinic against Notre Dame recently, so I’m surprised to see them as an underdog at home against Clemson. With SMU getting 1.5 points, I’m taking them in this spot.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas

Kansas is giving 14.5 points to Oklahoma State, and I don’t think they should be laying that many points to anyone right now. The Jayhawks have been inconsistent, especially during their trip out west against Utah and BYU. I’ll probably stay away from this game entirely, but if I had to pick, I’d take Oklahoma State with the points.

Florida vs. LSU

Florida is favored by 10.5 points against LSU. The Tigers are one of the few SEC teams unlikely to make the tournament, while Florida is in contention for a No. 1 seed. I believe Florida can cover the spread here, as they have much more at stake.

Kentucky vs. Alabama

This game was an instant classic when these two teams faced off in Lexington on MLK weekend. Now, Kentucky is a 10.5-point underdog as they travel to Alabama. That spread seems a bit high, but I’ll be holding off on making a final call until I see more developments.

St. Mary’s Visits Gonzaga as a 6 Point Favorite

St. Mary’s and Gonzaga battled things out about a month ago with St. Mary’s hosting as a slight underdog. In a bizarre display of many missed free throws, the Gaels survived an ugly contest. I just think Gonzaga is overdue for a good showing here at home and a quality win to solidify a tournament berth as a lower seed than we’re used to seeing the Bulldogs. My guess is that they’ll finish the season as a 9 or 10 seed.

St. Mary’s has a son of a former NBA star on its roster. Can you name him?
👶Click here for the list of sons of NBA players in the 2025 Men’s College Basketball Season👶

College Basketball Against the Spread Picks – Closing Thought

That wraps up my early thoughts as I roll out of bed, checking for suspect spreads. Be sure to check out my website, CollegeBasketballItest.com, as well as my YouTube and Twitter for more picks and insights. Let me know what you’re seeing today, and enjoy the action!