If you don’t know about my track record, check the hashtag #SuspectSpreadsSaturday.
Take the teams on the left.
St. John’s +12 vs. Villanova
*Indiana -1 vs. Michigan State
LSU +5.5 @ Arkansas
*Temple -4 vs *UCONN
*UMASS +6 vs. *George Washington
UNC -1.5 vs. Duke
*Must win situations (barring competing in respective conference championship game) for those teams to even be considered for reaching the NCAA Tournament.
Are you kidding me?
In an age where most programs can’t keep talented players for two years, Kansas goes 11 straight seasons with sole possession of the regular season title in the Big 12.
And, might I add, the Big 12 is by far the most tournament-ready conference.
Compare, for argument’s sake, the 3rd-5th place Big 10 teams versus that of the Big 12. Oklahoma, West Virginia and Baylor are top 20 teams with experience and clearcut identities. Purdue, Iowa and Ohio State, on the other hand, are a one-game-losing-streak away from being bounced from the top 25. Alleged tournament teams like Indiana and Michigan State are taking turns letting teams get critical late-season wins on their court.
But, I digress.
On Tuesday night Kansas showed the grit of a true tournament-ready team. Freshman manchild Cliff Alexander missed another game for the Jayhawks. Perry Ellis, the Jayhawks leading scorer, missed the second half with a knee injury. Still, Jamari Traylor, Devonte’ Graham, Kelly Oubre and others fought back from an 18 point deficit.
My Bob Cousy Award winner for the best point guard in the nation, Frank Mason III, stepped up like a senior leader yet again. Note, he is a sophomore. Mason scored 8 points in the overtime period. When KU was down two possessions with 45 seconds remaining, he had the presence of mind to take the ball right to the rims and score.
I haven’t been the biggest fan of KU throughout the season because of Brannon Greene and Wayne Selden Jr’s inconsistency on the offensive end. I need to chill on that because these guys got it done tonight and answered a lot of challenges in a year when Texas, Iowa State or Oklahoma were the vogue picks to knock them off their (traditional) block.
Isaiah Taylor is benched for a majority of the 2nd half. Then he comes to the rescue in overtime, sinking the game winning floater against Baylor.
Help figure this team out with me…
It’s March 1st! Happy Madness month to all of my fellow college basketball junkies. My first blog post of this glorious month will be dedicated to some recent losses by big programs. I ask the question: “was this loss a red flag for bigger problems for the team?” Or, is this just the sign of a season lagging on? Losses are inevitable, which makes Kentucky’s run (and WIchita State’s last year) so magical. Let’s delve into it.
Utah loss to Arizona: Red Flag
Some context here: Coach Larry Krystkowiak had a team that won just six games total four years ago. I say this loss is a red flag for a team that now has aspirations of making a Final Four run. Arizona went into the Huntsman Center and beat Utah Saturday night. What concerns me is the volume of three-pointers Utah took to stay in this game. They shot 22 threes and still lost 63-57. Utah freshman center Jacob Peltl has received a lot of complements this season, and rightfully so. However, he was outplayed by Kaleb Tarzcewski. Tarzcewski had been averaging nine points a game, a modest total for the expectations he receives. In this game he scored 13 on 7-9 shooting. Peltl also fouled out of this game. Delon Wright’s play this season has been amazing. However, with 1:09 left in this game Brandon Taylor missed a three pointer. Wright never touched the ball in that most crucial offensive possession. Yes, T.J. McConnell is a good defender, but you have to find a way to get your best player the ball late. If Utah wants to be a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, I believe they have to beat Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament. So far this season they’ve been swept by the Wildcats. There’s a huge difference between being a 4 seed and playing 13’s such as Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Valparaiso or LA Tech or being a 3 seed and playing 14’s like Central Michigan or William & Mary. The latter are teams lucky to win a conference tournament. Those 13’s are a “who’s who” of Mid-Major powers.
SMU loss to UCONN: Season just lags
This is a game where I wish so-called pundits would refuse to use the term “upset.” SMU was not “upset” by UCONN, especially not in Connecticut. SMU has put itself in a position it was not in last season. The Mustangs are firmly slotted in the 21st ranking nationally. They’ve scored some key out-of-conference victories, scheduled a challenging out-of-conference lineup, and are looking at an NCAA Tournament berth. UCONN, however, has sorely underachieved. NC State transfer Rodney Purvis, had struggled to find his niche in the UCONN offense. Not this game. Purvis scored a season high 28 points. UCONN won a game at home that desperate teams win at home. And, until someone dethrones them, the UCONN Huskies are still national champions. I would not be surprised if UCONN runs the table to win the American championship tournament. This game against SMU is just what happens during a lengthy college basketball season. SMU out-rebounded and committed less turnovers than UCONN. The Mustangs propensity to sag off of the 3-point line on defense continues, however. They gave up 9-20 long range shooting. Nothing shocking here.
Texas at Kansas loss: Red Flag
No, it is not surprising that a team outside of the top 25 loses to an 8th ranked KU team. But, come on. How long are we going to wait for it to “click” for this Longhorn team? Kansas was playing without the services of big bodied freshman, Cliff Alexander in this one. Naturally, you’d think that’d bolster the Longhorns already stacked height advantage. But the Texas offense is tired-looking. Isaiah Taylor dribbles down court. Two down screens are set to try and get Myles Turner the ball. That normally fails. The ball is either reversed to a second or third wing. If he gets it, that player looks for beefy Cameron Ridley. In the end, Isaiah Taylor normally penetrates to try and create. He took 15 shots this game, which was by far the team’s most. Given the outcome, this formula clearly is not working. In this four game losing streak, Taylor has taken 22% of the team’s shots (51 of 227).
Myles Turner might get fed the ball more on his next team (in the NBA).
VCU loses to Dayton: Season just lags
Oh, the season has especially lagged for the VCU Rams. It seems like a year ago they lost Briante Weber, the emotional leader of that renown full-court press. VCU has recovered gracefully from this season-ending injury. Sophomore JeQuan Lewis has served the point guard position well since Weber’s absence. He is averaging 13 points since. The guys who need to continue stepping up on offense are Treveon Graham and Melvin Johnson. They shot a combined 7 of 20 for just 20 points Saturday. Still, this Dayton Flyer bunch is one of the more resilient teams in the nation. Last year they made the Elite 8 as an 11 seed. This year they are fighting through adversity with three players excused. This A10 outcome is just another excusable result of a lengthy season with many ups and downs. And, for the time being, I think that this game allows for at least three A10 teams in the big dance. These two and Temple can make it.
Of my predictions this season, my record is 35-19. Here are my predictions for today. Take the team on the left.
Dayton +6.5 @ VCU
Georgia -14 vs. Mizzou
Texas +7 @ KU
Villanova -2 @ Xavier
UNI +7 @ Wichita State
Here is a history of my selections so far this season:
(Starting with the most recent)
It’s a Matty D Guarantee. My picks will finish the season with an above .500 record. If you’re a new visitor to my blog, I make five predictions every Saturday for college basketball. I use the Vegas odds as my guide. Because, well, there’s no skill in predicting that a 26 point favorite (see Kentucky over Auburn) will win a game.
After suffering my first 1-4 week of the season, I rebounded on Valentine’s Day. I have scored back-to-back 4-1 weekends. My record for the season stands at 35-19 (with one tie).
If you’re on Twitter, check out a log of my predictions by searching the hashtag #SuspectSpreadsSaturday. I expose what Las Vegas odds are “suspect,” as in questionable in nature. You get it.
Here is a history of my selections so far this season:
(Starting with the most recent)
Matty D Guarantee Warning (almost) in full effect.
It’s not March, just yet.
Take the teams on the left:
Oregon State -2 vs. Colorado
Gonzaga -8 vs. St. Mary’s
Kansas -13 vs. TCU
Pittsburgh +4 @Syracuse
UMASS + 11.5 @ VCU
The Johnnies went into Washington, D.C. riding a three game winning streak.
First and foremost: the A team of all College Basketball A Teams, Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery, were on the Fox Sports 1 call.
Secondly, the first half told the full tale of the tape.
Seldom-used Florida International transfer Joey De La Rosa got the start against a like-bodied, thick Josh Smith. In the beginning sequences, the big bodies banged equally against each other. They essentially canceled each other out and the tone was set as a perimeter/transition game.
I have been questioning what’s happened to former starting St. John’s center Chris Obekpa. A friend on Twitter tells me he’s been hobbled by an ankle injury. If D’Angelo Harrison was the soul of this quad, Obekpa had been the heart. Yet, he hasn’t played in all but 35 minutes in 4 games since an elbow disqualified him in a game against Butler. Obekpa just played 13 minutes against Georgetown. He is a 6’10” junior from Nigeria.
Isaac Copeland was aggressive early for Georgetown. This kid played the power forward as a small lineup was trotted out there with Smith in early foul trouble. Copeland finished with 11 points.
Neither team could buy a bucket in the early going.
Obekpa entered the game at the 15:15 mark while St. John’s trailed just 5-2.
He quickly left the game after a back-and-forth tempo put the game at an 11-7 Georgetown advantage.
The center from Rome, Italy Amar Alibegovic saw some minutes immediately. Alibegovic hit a three-pointer in transition and fed a three-point basket from a post assist on consecutive possessions.
De La Rosa returned at the 11 minute mark (still first half). Alibegovic stayed in, giving St. John’s a rare zone defense with a unique combination of players. Smith missed a jump-hook in one possession, but the Hoyas quickly gobbled up an offensive rebound after the post defense had sucked in.
Alibegovic answered with a dunk in transition.
De La Rosa logged 3 fouls in 12 minutes.
As Gus Johnson points out, Georgetown is still in need of a point guard. The eye test tells you that Smith-Rivera and Trawick are shooting guards chipping in at point. Smith-Rivera completed the game with 6 assists, so there was no shortage of sharing.
In an extremely upbeat first half, Georgetown finished a majority of drives. A Mikael Hoplins dunk on a transition put back put the Hoyas up 26-19, capping an 11-0 run.
Georgetown led at haltime 33-23. The Hoyas held D’Angelo Harrison (4th all-time career scorer at St. John’s) to 0-5 shooting from the field. Rysheed Jordan was also held scoreless in the first half.
St. John’s turned the ball over 12 times resulting in 13 transition points.
Georgetown won by a final score, 79-57.
This week’s “Eye Test Tuesday” takes a glance at Conference USA.
So there I was, gliding along on the season with my predictions. I tweeted smack talk, saying how I was 66% correct on the season (26-13). That’s when the full court press caught me. Like a stunned offense in front of the Cameron Crazies, I needed a timeout.
I licked my wounds, re-watched tape, and debrief on two of my worst losses. You can see my posts about what SMU and Stl John’s taught me by picking against them.
This week I will tone it down in attitude and rely on “what got me here.” My eye test still hasn’t failed me. I can live with a 27-17 record, for now.
This week I would like to take Old Dominion getting 4 1/2 points at UTEP, but I just haven’t seen enough of either team.
I”ll nickname this week “the icing on the cake.”
VCU has lost a couple times since losing Briante Weber. Conference rivals like Dayton, George Washington and Temple have been eager to seize the moment. I trust point guard Joe McDonald to handle the Havoc defense. I see the Eric Snow play-alike to capture this win. In a pick ’em, I have to take George Washington as an “icing on the cake” for their testimony towards postseason.
I like Michigan State to actually cover 2 1/2 points against Ohio State. I keep looking at that line thinking Ohio State is a gimme, but I think that coach Tom Izzo will find a answer to De’Angelo Russell. I think a Spartans win would be the “icing on the cake,” for Michigan State to be an official pain in the committee’s decision-making behind.
Can you envision Tom Izzo’s team in the NIT?
Give me St. John’s getting eight. They’re on Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket as a play-in 12 seed. A win *at Xavier would be the icing on the cake for the Storm to stay on that inside the bubble fold.
Iowa State is a 3 or 4 seed. It’s much more dangerous to be a 5 or 6 seed. Saturday will be the icing on the cake for Iowas State to separate its cream from the crop of Big 12 teams. I think they’ll throttle West Virginia.
And, finally, Villanova is in similar position as are the Iowa State Cyclones. Villanova beat a quality Providence team wire-to-wire the other night. I expect the Wildcats to hold serve and hold on to that projected 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A win at Butler would all but guarantee this, especially if they par-out the rest of the way. Give me Villanova minus two points.
Here is a history of my selections so far this season:
(Starting with the most recent)
College Basketball Eye Test 