Author Archives: College Basketball Eye Test

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About College Basketball Eye Test

There is no replacement for actually watching the games. My name is Matty D. I am a college basketball junkie. And, although I respect big data stat gurus like kenpom.com, this website is the antithesis of that. Talk hoops with me and tell me what you've actually seen. What players step up in clutch situations? Which coaches make the right adjustments? Who disappears when the lights get bright? The "college basketball eye test" is a chat dedicated to storylines bubbling below the surface before they become national trends. Check the first-ever article I wrote on this website. I listed UCONN as one of 5 underdogs I could see winning the NCAA title. They did. Last season Darren Rovell tweeted visual proof of how I predicted upset victories for UAB and Georgia State together. Watch the games and join the conversation. Tweet @CBBEyeTest and have your observations added to the mix!

Against the Spread Predictions: Ohio State at Michigan State and more

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So there I was, gliding along on the season with my predictions.  I tweeted smack talk, saying how I was 66% correct on the season (26-13).  That’s when the full court press caught me.  Like a stunned offense in front of the Cameron Crazies, I needed a timeout.

I licked my wounds, re-watched tape, and debrief on two of my worst losses.  You can see my posts about what SMU and Stl John’s taught me by picking against them.

This week I will tone it down in attitude and rely on “what got me here.”  My eye test still hasn’t failed me.  I can live with a 27-17 record, for now.

This week I would like to take Old Dominion getting 4 1/2 points at UTEP, but I just haven’t seen enough of either team.

I”ll nickname this week “the icing on the cake.”

VCU has lost a couple times since losing Briante Weber.  Conference rivals  like Dayton, George Washington and Temple have been eager to seize the moment.  I trust point guard Joe McDonald to handle the Havoc defense.  I see the Eric Snow play-alike to capture this win.  In a pick ’em, I have to take George Washington as an “icing on the cake” for their testimony towards postseason.

I like Michigan State to actually cover 2 1/2 points against Ohio State.  I keep looking at that line thinking Ohio State is a gimme, but I think that coach Tom Izzo will find a answer to De’Angelo Russell.  I think a Spartans win would be the “icing on the cake,” for Michigan State to be an official pain in the committee’s decision-making behind.

Can you envision Tom Izzo’s team in the NIT?

Give me St. John’s getting eight.  They’re on Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket as a play-in 12 seed.  A win *at Xavier would be the icing on the cake for the Storm to stay on that inside the bubble fold.

Iowa State is a 3 or 4 seed.  It’s much more dangerous to be a 5 or 6 seed.  Saturday will be the icing on the cake for Iowas State to separate its cream from the crop of Big 12 teams.  I think they’ll throttle West Virginia.

And, finally, Villanova is in similar position as are the Iowa State Cyclones.  Villanova beat a quality Providence team wire-to-wire the other night.  I expect the Wildcats to hold serve and hold on to that projected 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  A win at Butler would all but guarantee this, especially if they par-out the rest of the way.  Give me Villanova minus two points.

Here is a history of my selections so far this season:
(Starting with the most recent)

St. Mary’s or BY whU ‘Ya Got?

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Yeah, yeah.  We know all about Gonzaga.  Most athletic Zaga squad ever, all the size you’d want, Kyle Wiltjer gained Herculean strength during his year off.

But AT LEAST one other WCC team will make the NCAA Tournament.

BYU or St. Mary’s:  Who YOU got?

After watching the first of two games this season, I blogged about how both teams could make a Sweet 16 run.  St. Mary’s was the more impressive, but BYU was also down a man.  Click here to read my full game recap from mid-January. 

In the second game between these two teams, BYU again proved that it can score in transition.

On the flip side, BYU does not get much offensive production on its offensive front court.  On the defensive end, much of the same.  At least the Cougars switch up their defensive schemes, double-team, help defense and try to confuse.  If BYU plays another quality shooting team in March; say an Ohio State, Arkansas, Indiana or North Carolina, take the over.

For storylines, you’d take St. Mary’s.  They have five veteran seniors with serious “skin in the game.”  One, point guard Aaron Bright was the 2012 NIT MVP with Stanford.  The next season he dislocated a shoulder and missed an entire season.  With Stanford point guard Chasson Randle coming up, Bright transferred to St. Mary’s in 2013.  He’s now 22-years-old.

Second, back-court mate Kerry Carter also took five years to ripen after three years at Citrus College of the Western State Conference.

Third, small forward Garrett Jackson started his collegiate career at USC.  You’ll see him doing the dirty work now for the Gaels.  However, he was once a prized recruit for the Golden State.  Jackson was ranked 82nd overall by ESPNU when he came out in 2010.

Fourth, power forward Desmond Simmons played all his years at Washington under coach Lorenzo Romar.  Now he’s using his last year of eligibility for this run.

And, finally, Brad Waldo.  This center reminds me of a mixture of Brad Daugherty and Bryant Reeves.  This version of “Big Country” has been a mainstay with the Gaels, even since they topped Gonzaga in the regular season in the 2010-2011 campaign.

But, by the eye test, I can’t ignore BYU’s offensive skills.  St. Mary’s guards are undersized when combined.  If Waldo is not effective, it could be a long night.  I really like the activity level of BYU from the perimeter.  They led St. Mary’s 75-45 with its full compliment of players.  Note: neither BYU or St. Mary’s are on Joe Lunardi’s latest edition of bracketology.

What I learned picking against SMU vs Tulsa basketball

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As the process of licking my wounds from this weekend’s predictions continue, I am debriefing on the teams I liked.

Tulsa let a golden opportunity slip away by losing at home to #23 ranked SMU.  Game broadcasters questioned, with good reason before the game, why Tulsa wasn’t the ranked team and SMU on the outside looking in.

I give SMU even more credit for this win because the most promising player (actually on the court) for the Mustangs had been Keith Frazier.  The sophomore guard lost his appeal on an academic issue.

Bill Nichols of the Dallas Morning News has been all over this story (as for the entire Mustangs season).  Click here to check out more specifics on the Frazier news (and the colorful reaction from SMU fans to the NCAA’s refusal).

Keith Frazier was a 2014 McDonald’s All-American and his loss was insult to injury after lost Emmanuel Mudiay to the pros in China.

Tulsa played a high-energy game.  Its guards James Woodard and Shaquille Harrison, to their credit, were aggressive on the offensive end.  However, they each struggled in the second half, missing eight and seven shots respectively.  Tulsa shot only 28% from the field.  A lot of missed shots in the second half were layups.

Tulsa also did not have an answer for Cannen Cunningam.  The senior big man had a season-high 16 points.  Many of those were rim runs that broke the back of Tulsa at the end of the shot clock.

Speaking of inside presence, De’Andre Wright was repeatedly the only Tulsa player fighting in the paint for offensive rebounds.  I know Tulsa is a good defensive rebound game, but I would have like to see them game plan for more players to crash the glass.

(Easy for me to say, as I sit in my basement eating skittles while writing this).

SMU did not make the tournament last year after a very controversial decision by the committee.  Although the Mustangs beat the eventual champion UCONN Huskies twice that season, the committee apparently disapproved of their non-conference schedule and didn’t extend an invite.  This year they scheduled Gonzaga, Indiana, Michigan and Arkansas.  Although the Wolverines are the only win in that group, Cincinnati is their only in-conference lost yet.

If and when SMU makes the tournament, watch out.  If they have PG Nic Moore, they have a shot.  The kid scored 23 points and dished 7 assists Saturday.

Coaster Ride Continues for Red Storm of St. John’s

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I love being wrong.

Well, that’s not true.  But in the case of St. John’s today, I am fortunate for being wrong.  A loss to Creighton at Madison Square Garden would have been another demerit against the Johnnies’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament.

But Rysheed Jordan shut up his critics, including me.

The elusive sophomore exploded for a career-high 25 points in an 18 point victory over Creighton on Saturday.

Friday night I predicted that the Red Storm would not cover an 8.5 spread, in part, because Rysheed Jordan had been MIA.

For a supposed NBA prospect, Jordan had been a disappointment.  In their first game against Creighton this season, Jordan only played seven minutes.  He took a leave of absence from the team on January 2nd.  The reason was never clearly specified.  St. John’s lost an important game to fellow bubble team, Butler.

But on Saturday Rysheed Jordan was the electric, sharp-shooting scorer that St. John’s fans are salivating for.

He hit six three pointers, shot 75% from the field and also contributed 4 assists.

Creighton coach Greg McDermott spoke highly of Rysheed Jordan after the game.

After the game, reporters took to Twitter to joke that he remains off-limits for post game interviews.  Jordan has not been cleared to speak with reporters for two years.

Whatever the catalyst for his mysterious nature, I hope translates onto the court and continues to confuse opposing defenses.  I bought-in on St. John’s to win the championship at 200/1 odds.  The odds have become even higher now.  You can find them between 300-500/1 in Vegas.  I love that value!

Will they win it?  Likely not.  But every win gets them closer to the tournament.  Once a team gets in, anything can happen.   I love that I was wrong on my Friday night prediction.

Against the Spread college basketball preview: Purdue and Tulsa for starters

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I (Matty D.) am 68% against the spread so far this season.  That’s 30-14 record on the season (with one tie).  Scroll to the far below to see a time stamp history on Twitter to prove that my record is legit.

My first prediction for this weekend is that St. John’s won’t cover 8 1/2 points hosting Creighton.  If you have watched any St. John’s game this year, you know this:  nothing is easy.  I won’t give St. John’s a stitch of a chance of winning another game this year by 8.5+ points.  Not by a stitch of Lou Carnesecca’s sweater.  If you watched (again, Eye Test here people) the Creighton St. John’s game in Iowa, you know that the Storm fought their five-boroughs off just to be in that game.  As per usual, Chris Obekpa and DeAngelo Harrison were over-taxed.  Rysheed Jordan was MIA.  Sir Dominic Pointer was royalty as the name suggests.  This is the team storyline until they prove me otherwise.

How is Duke giving Notre Dame nine points?  The Irish could easily hit six three-pointers, which would be 18 points, hence making a 27 point 2-point field goal disadvantage unlikely.  I feel like baked into this point spread is the fact that Duke robbed a victory at Notre Dame.  However, the eye test clearly tells you that the Irish have the size, skill and altheticisim to make this a one-three possession game if not winning it outright.

Come on, Kansas is going down to Oklahoma State and winning the game.  The Jayhawks are a one point underdog.  If they win this game, they will essentially wrap-up the 11th consecutive Big 12 league title.  The significance of this is not lost on the hometown crowd in Lawrence, Kansas.  It will not be lost on the Jayhawks wings, who are playing out of their minds (Greene, Seldon, Oubre).

I have been riding this horse all year.  I can’t ignore Purdue getting 5 1/2 points against Minnesota.  The Gophers are not an NCAA team.  Mini Pitino is going through the growing pains as a head coach that’d you’d expect from any 30-something year old overseeing his first-ever team in a major conference.  Purdue’s two big men will outlast Mo Walker (Gopher’s big man).  Minnesota I think will win the ball game, but a Purdue win could clinch the inside track to a tournament berth.  Therefore, I just don’t see Purdue losing by three possession or more.

Hawaii and Texas A&M are both tempting to take this weekend.  But, the ebb and flow of college basketball won’t let me do it.  The respective home teams, UC Santa Barbara and Mizzou, have a lot of pride and an uphill battle to gain respectability on their home turf over the next month.

Tulsa will beat SMU outright and position itself as the team to beat in the American Conference (as if they haven’t already).  Speaking of Mizzou, the refugee of Columbia, Missouri, Frank Haith is coaching an inspired club that plays below the rim but outworks teams over-and-again.  I think Tulsa wins this game, Cincinnati slips-up somehow, and UCONN wins the American Conference tournament.  Memphis is just not an NCAA Tournament team (see my pick last year of the Memphis Tigers not covering the 17 point spread at Gonzaga…which they did not).  Tulsa will win.  That would place Tulsa, UCONN and Temple in the NCAA Tournament.  But, hey, that’s just me.

Here is a history of my selections so far this season:
(Starting with the most recent)

Big West Conference – A Tidal Wave 10 Years-in-the-Making

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Like life, like the stock market, like your grades in high school, college basketball is cyclical.  The ebb and flow is so well-orchestrated.  In hindsight, you wonder why you couldn’t have predicted the ups and downs.

One year after the Atlantic 10 got six teams in the tournament, one of the conference’s best players (Briante Weber of VCU) tore a ligament in his knee and is done for the season.  The league would be hard-pressed to get three teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Those bids have to go somewhere.

Enter the Big West.
https://twitter.com/BigWestMBB/status/562659568430227456

This March will be the 25 year anniversary of the then-Big West UNLV Runnin’ Rebels winning the NCAA Championship by defeating Duke.

Fast forward to the last decade.

The Big West Conference has not enjoyed a team winning a tournament game since 2005. Eighth-seeded Pacific beat Pittsburgh round one and 14-seed Utah State made the tournament after a conference championship.  Neither program is in the Big West after conference realignment.

Pacific got beat by Boston College in 2006 then bolted to the West Coast Conference.

In 2007 UC Davis joined the conference.  That year, twelve-seeded Long Beach State was embarrassed 121-86 by Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament.

Cal State Nothridge got clobbered by Memphis in a 15-2 pairing in 2009.  Cal Full State Fullerton didn’t do much better in 2008 to Wisconsin in a 14-3 matchup.

In 2010, UC Santa Barbara lost to Evan Turner’s Ohio State team.  In 2011, UC Santa Barbara lost by 28 points to Florida.  The Gators moved on to the Elite 8.

In 2012, Long Beach State was a vogue pick to upset 5-seed New Mexico.  Casper Ware’s 49ers did not strike gold against future pros Tony Snell and Alex Kirk.  New Mexico lost to Louisville, which would lose to the eventual champion Kentucky Wildcats

In 2013, Pacific was beat by 29 against Miami in the 15-2 seed game.  Pacific is no longer in the Big West.  Miami made it to the Sweet 16.

In 2014, Cal Poly got demolished by Wichita State.  Cal Poly was a 7 seed in its own conference tournament, sneaking into the NCAA tournament with a 14-20 overall record.  Sure, they earned it by winning their league championship.  But the Shockers were accustomed to playing that season with a target on their back and would not spoil their undefeated campaign with that 16-1 matchup.
https://twitter.com/WichitaStateMBB/status/436165335989776386

But today I see a well-matured conference after a decade of these spankings.

UC Davis is fourth overall in the nation in field goal percentage.  Corey Hawkins (son of former NBA All Star Hershey Hawkins) is a senior sharpshooter and 7th overall in the nation in scoring average.

UC Irvine won six straight to finish January.  It also beat fellow-bubble tournament team Green Bay in a non-conference championship game in Las Vegas.

You could say Long Beach State has underperformed as it finishes January with a .500 record.  Mike Caffey is 58th in the nation in scoring average.  Tyler Lamb is a player with a higher ceiling than what he has played up to.  And coach Dan Monson maybe getting too comfortable, after reports of his profiting from lopsided out-of-conference scheduling.  If he’s reading this, he’d probably think “damned if you do, damned if you don’t (schedule tough out-of-conference).”  However, the reality is that a coach cannot comfortably preside over .500 record in this 2015 age when he’s been in the position since 2007.  Long Beach State could win its conference tournament, and be a very dangerous team playing with momentum as a 15 seed.  (End 49ers rant).
https://twitter.com/michaelares1/status/561582363029667840

Hawaii is interesting.  They are the Big West version of Arkansas or VCU.  They don’t want to play half-court offense because they’d rather confuse you in the full court.  They have one of the nation’s worst analytics when it comes to assists.  But the Rainbow Warriors have their “share” of quality wins.  Hawaii has beat Pittsburgh, Colorado and Nebraska this season.  They took the Wichita State Shockers to overtime.  This is currently the fourth place team in the Big West Conference.  Stefan Jankovic, a Missouri transfer with Wally Szczerbiak-type skills is just now starting to find his voice in the NCAA concerto.

UC Santa Barbara has a sleeping giant in Alan Williams.  The 6’8″ 265 lbs. senior came into the Gauchos season with a reputation as an NBA prospect and one of the nation’s leading rebounders.  He has struggled with injury this season.  When healthy, his Gauchos only lost by 10 points to the Kansas Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse.  That’s more than K-State and Iowa State can say this season.  Stay with me, UCSB is currently in 5th place in the Big West.

UC Riverside is where I feel the falloff finally happens.  Although, Jaylen Bland has hit 67 3-pointers in 21 games.  As us New York lottery players would say, “hey, you never know.”

I’m telling you now (February 4th).  This traditionally awesome baseball conference could throw a wicked curve ball into your bracket come March.

College Basketball’s All Tight End Team

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The football season is officially over.  Gronk and the Patriots got the job done.  And, if you’re a sports fan who is returning to the enjoyment of college basketball, allow me to make the transition easy for you.  Here are my top 5 college basketball players who should get a tryout someday at an NFL combine.

1) Rico Gathers – Baylor Bears
Gathers averages an unbelievable 12 rebounds per game, including 5.5 of those being offensive rebounds.  Imagine those aggressive hands on the receiving end of a two yard slant to either win or lose a Super Bowl!
https://twitter.com/bychrisjohnson/status/560178936127447040
2) Brian Bennett – Cal Poly
Standing at just 6′ 5″, Bennett plays like a true center because of his physical nature.  (He wears number 34).

3) J.J. O’Brien – San Diego State
O’Brien has terrific hands as he does it all for the Aztecs.  At 6′ 7″ and 220 pounds he could be an enticing option for NFL offenses.  He also has a lot of endurance, playing every game this season and averaging 31.5 minutes per.
https://twitter.com/ESPNCBB/status/534848198670426112
4) Thomas Gipson – Kansas State
It should be no surprise that another Big 12 guy makes the list.  Gipson has been described as a below-the-rim player, which actually is a credit to his fantastic footwork.  I could see the 6’7″ 265 pound Wildcat working the sidelines on a route.  The eye test shows that he looks like a football player.  If not a tight end, perhaps teams could have a spot for him on the defensive line.

5) Cinmeon Bowers – Auburn Tigers
His Twitter name is 6 FOOT 7 GORILLA.  Need I say more?

College basketball world reacts to Briante Weber’s season-ending injury

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When I thought of VCU, I thought of the wiry Briante Weber leading that full-court pressure which captures the nation’s attention around this time every year.  Weber is the key irritant in coach Shaka Smart’s “Havoc” style.  Seeing his deceptively wide wingspan and his headband soaking up all the sweat of his hustle was a frightening sight for opposing teams.

Saturday VCU fans saw a frightening sight for their beloved leader.

Weber was just 12 steals short of the all-time NCAA record before a tear of an ACL/MCL that ended his collegiate career.

https://twitter.com/ESPNCBB/status/561735449476366337

On this Super Bowl Sunday, the college basketball landscape is reacting to this harrowing tragedy.   Media members in Richmond, Virginia are tweeting how pleasurable it was to cover Weber’s career.  This from cartoonist “RVA Coffee Stain” on Sunday morning:

Of course, players nationwide are sending condolences for a senior season cut short.  The VCU Rams were ranked 14th in the nation and riding a twelve game winning streak before they lost to Richmond on Saturday.  Georgetown preseason Player of the Year D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera tweeted his thoughts on Weber’s place in NCAA hoops history:

Georgetown Guard D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera one of many in college basketball sending thoughts to Briante Weber after his season-ending injury.

Georgetown Guard D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera one of many in college basketball sending thoughts to Briante Weber after his season-ending injury.

From a strictly basketball perspective, this opens the already-wide-open A10 conference even more.  The Rams of Virginia Commonwealth are in first place.  Worthy threats Rhode Island, Dayton and George Washington universities follow closely after in the standings.  Rhode Island has one of the best scorers in the conference with E.C. Matthews.  Dayton dismissed two players but its remaining seven are playing lights-out.  You’ll remember that the Dayton Flyers made the Elite Eight last year.

And, my personal favorite in this conference are the George Washington Colonials.  Point guard Joe McDonald plays a well-rounded game that reminds me of long-time Philadelphia 76er Eric Snow.  GW has an international flair and plays its own brand of lockdown defense.

Do not also discount the team that beat VCU on Saturday.  Teams like Richmond, even UMASS and Davidson are not out of the conversation when you consider a conference tournament sleeper.

After his injury, Weber stood on the sidelines in crutches, itching to get on the floor and rooting his teammates on.  As history shows us, this turn of events can go one of two ways for the VCU Rams.  It could be an injury that the Rams can’t recover from.  But I believe this will be the definitive rallying cry.  The Rams will play their horns off the way Weber would if he were on the floor.  Yes, Weber is a huge basketball loss.  However, watch out for the younger players who get minutes they normally wouldn’t.  They’ll be playing inspired basketball!

Against the Spread Predictions:

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My record against the spread the season is 26-13-1.
As always, you can find my picks every late Friday night by searching the hashtag #SuspectSpreadsSaturday on Twitter.

The odds are according to vegasinsider.com.
If you are in Las Vegas today, enjoy and good luck!

NC Central Men’s Basketball Roster Breakdown

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After a rare ESPN telecast of MEAC competitors, I wanted to analyze both the Delaware State Hornets and the NC Central Eagles.  Check my last blog post for the Hornets breakdown.  Here are my thoughts on the Eagles.

NC Central is not a small team.  They have six guys listed at 6′ 7″ or taller.  This is not a surprise, as recruiting comes easier with a popular coach, 30 game home winning streak and tournament appearance.   There are all seniors and juniors in the starting lineup.

I was surprised in watching its home game against Delaware State, that the Eagles couldn’t capitalize on a ton of turnovers to ever take a commanding lead.  Cheap fouls, sloppy turnovers, missed layups, (even an airball) were hallmarks of this game.

NC Central runs a motion offense with a lot of high ball screens and curls at the top of the key.

Jordan Parks (No. 2) shoots great FG%, averages above 15 points per game.  Parks was the recipient of two alley ooop tosses in the first few possessions against Delaware State.

Jeremiah Ingram is a lean but powerful shooting guard.  Ingram dunked a few times with authority against Delaware State.  Ingram is 6′ 7.”  His aggression might even cost him a charging foul in the lane.

Lamar transfer NImrad Hilliard (No. 11) leads his conference in assist and can get to the basket himself.  He was previously on academic probation.

Karamo Jawara has a big body and defends well (especially while floating for a double-team).  Jawara is definitely this team’s “enforcer.”  He is less of an offensive threat.  I was shocked to see Jawara take two three point shots late in the game.  In the first 21 games, he had attempted 41 three pointers, making 34%.

Jamal Ferguson (No. 20) is a sophomore guard and Marquette transfer.  Not sure what the deal was with Marquette, but he is said to have been highly touted out of high school and has upside.

The Eagles end-of-game lineup was as follows:  Jamal Ferguson, Karamo Jawara, Anthony McDonald, Jordan Parks and Nimrod Hilliard.  McDonald hit what would turn out to be the game-winning three pointer.

I don’t think this Eagles team is as good as last year’s team.

Click here to see the full team roster.