There is no replacement for actually watching the games. My name is Matty D. I am a college basketball junkie. And, although I respect big data stat gurus like kenpom.com, this website is the antithesis of that. Talk hoops with me and tell me what you've actually seen. What players step up in clutch situations? Which coaches make the right adjustments? Who disappears when the lights get bright? The "college basketball eye test" is a chat dedicated to storylines bubbling below the surface before they become national trends. Check the first-ever article I wrote on this website. I listed UCONN as one of 5 underdogs I could see winning the NCAA title. They did. Last season Darren Rovell tweeted visual proof of how I predicted upset victories for UAB and Georgia State together. Watch the games and join the conversation. Tweet @CBBEyeTest and have your observations added to the mix!
The Crosstown Shoutout was a perfect example of the type of season the Musketeers are having. Trevon Bluiett was red hot, making 10 of his first 10 shots. Bluiett finished with 40 points, but Xavier still lost by 8 to Cincinnati. Although Xavier has scoring punch in Bluiett, it misses the steady point guard play of Myles Davis, who left the program following a suspension. To add insult to injury, Edmond Summer is out for the season with a torn ACL. Xavier also obviously misses the intense play of Jalen Reynolds (now playing in Italy) on the inside. Xavier just does not appear to have the versatility and balance that it had enjoyed over the past 5 or so years. For that reason, we are flagging Xavier as a candidate for an upset round 1 of the NCAA Tournament.
Hopefully by now you are all waking up from that deep turkey coma.
A lot of college basketball has been played.
If you are one of those people who only tunes in for March Madness, but stumbles across this article, here are your cliff notes of team reports:
Duke Your first thought about Duke is “how healthy are those freshman?”
And that’s not the trademark thought of a Final 4-worthy team.
For now, Duke has earned impressive early season wins, including a win over #21 Rhode Island on a neutral court much closer (Connecticut) to the Rams than the Blue Devils home turf. They lost a thriller to Kansas.
Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen have shared the workload in terms of scoring output. And Chase Jeter is a much improved post-player. Last year, despite injuries down low, coach Krzyzewski was reluctant to play Jeter. Yet, this year, he is logging valuable minutes.
Gonzaga Not sure how coach Few does it, but he does it again.
Off all places, college transfers are supplying Gonzaga with two players who are making a true difference right now for the bulldogs.
In particular, Nigel Williams-Goss looks extremely comfortable at point guard. The junior transfer from Washington averaged 13 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists early in the season. Gonzaga beat an underrated Iowa State team in holiday tournament play, which is noteworthy because they too have one of the nation’s best point guards (Monte Morris).
Indiana
OG Anunubi has been getting, and will continue to receive, all of the accolades in line with observers who salivate over a player’s NBA prospects. Yet, for this Hoosiers ball club, James Blackmon Jr. and Thomas Bryant have been carrying the Hoosiers in the first eighth of the season.
The Hoosiers suffered a horrible loss at IFPUW, but this team’s versaility makes it a threat. Despite losing Yogi Ferrell to graduation, Josh Newkirk, a Pittsburgh transfer, has been filling in nicely.
Maryland
Talented point guard holdover Melo Trimble does not have a ton of talent surrounding him, compared to what was in place with last season’s roster. His penetration and runner late against Richmond escaped what would have been a really bad loss Thanksgiving week. That was followed up shortly thereafter by a crushing at home while hosting Pittsburgh. Maryland might not be a tournament team this season.
Michigan State
Miles Bridges is the next Vince Carter.
However, this Spartans team lacks size. That hurts.
Coach Tom Izzo has been visibly (and minute-allowance-wise) disappointed with senior guard Erron Harris. This Michigan State team, unlike several teams from the last 20 years, will run the ball in the open court. Tum Tum Nairn will be the straw that stirs the drink for this Spartans squad. If he can orchestrate a team that gets out, runs the floor, and guts a defense from all areas of the floor, Michigan State could be dangerous with its athletes. We can never count out coach Tom Izzo, but this team, in particular, will be a challenge this season to foster growth.
Well, Duke vs. Kansas wasn’t worth writing about. Between the lack of Duke’s talented freshmen and the underwhelming performances of the other Blue Devil stars, at first it seemed unclear what to make of this first glut of tournament games.
Then the Wolverines sank their teeth into tournament play.
Michigan has some holdovers from its last viable March Madness roster–Zach Irvin, Derrick Walton and Duncan Robinson. And, at Madison Square Garden, a new influx of rotation players shined. D.J. Wilson, a thin junior with a wide wingspan, put on an offensive clinic that began with a backdoor cut that finished with a two-handed and-one dunk. Moments later his 6-10 frame flew on a one-man fast break.
Michigan is tall, balanced, plays defense, and we know is well coached. SMU is slightly smaller, but just as athletic, if not more. That all didn’t matter Friday night as Michigan officially jumped onto the AP Top 25 radar in deserving fashion.
Check out this sweet photo by Michael Reaves of Getty, and give him a follow.
Here are my major takeaways from the four major battles to begin the season.
Arizona defeats Michigan State
This game looked like a JV scrimmage. Michigan State is suddenly small, with Gavin Schilling injured, Deyonta Davis departed and 6-6 Kenny Goins going into the starting lineup at center.
In watching the game, it would seem that coach Tom Izzo was trying to send some type of message to Eron Harris, as the senior sat for stretches mid-way through the game. Clearly, continuity was missing for both teams. Michigan State started the game dominant, then faded, Arizona showed their athleticism, and then it was the Spartans turn to perform again. It just looked like a preseason game.
The main takeaway had to be the coming-out party for Miles Bridges. The freshman from Flint, Michigan was putting on a personal slam dunk contest. With its smaller profile, Michigan State looked to push the ball throughout this game. That included after made baskets. Bridges capitalized on one of those outlet passes by jump-faking a three and taking it strong with a wrap-around jam from under the hoop. By the time he had attacked the basket, the dunk itself was uncontested.
Arizona, on the other hand, is ever more of a mystery. K
Miles Bridges' 21 points were the second most ever by a freshman in his MSU debut, trailing only Jay Vincent's 25 in 1977. pic.twitter.com/XpQq9bWG8o
— Michigan State Men's Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) November 12, 2016
Kadeem Allen carried the Wildcats to victory. Yet, Arizona had only 8 dressed scholarship athletes. Allonzo Trier remains the top mystery, not even flying to Hawaii with the team. The sophomore guard was one of the most hyped young prospects from the West Coast in the modern era. Check YouTube.
Arizona is a far cry from the 2013-15 NBA scout teams that they put out there in recent years.
Indiana defeats Kansas
Let’s pump the breaks on OG Anunoby. That’s first of all.
ESPN analysts want to promote him to the next Victor Olidipo already. To coach Tom Creen’s credit, Olidipo became an NBA lottery pick by improving greatly over his collegiate career, equally because of his defense. The athleticism of Anunoby, and size, could both be superior to Olidopo’s by the time OG leaves IU. But the sophomore’s track record still only shows an average of five points from last season. And that’s with opportunities at the small forward position, especially given the love-hate relationship coach had with Troy Williams.
In the broadcast of this KU – IU ball game, there were mentions that OG could even improve to a national player of the year candidate. Yet, he finished with just 13 points despite the game going into overtime and playing a total of 36 minutes.
What did stand out was the variety of ways Indiana went after KU. Phase 1 included a barrage of three pointers to begin the game. The Hoosiers made their first four field goals, all for three. Then there’s the bully down low, Thomas Bryant, who also ran the floor like a defensive end intent on a sack. Finally, Phase 3 was James Blackmon Jr’s silky smooth jumper. It’s back. Blackmon missed majority of last season with a major knee injury. He finished with 29 points in this game, including a clutch three pointer in overtime that showed the ice in his veins.
If OG becomes the next coming of Tracie McGrady that some predict, this team will be Final 4 material. I just don’t see that materializing in this young season.
Separate note, point guard Josh Newkirk, a junior transfer from Pittsburgh, is a serviceable replacement for Yogi Ferrell. Yogi is a once-in-a-decade, dare I say once-in-a-generation, point guard talent. You could do a lot worse than Newkirk filling those shoes. The former Panther put the ball in a variety of Hoosiers hands in the right spots. Indiana looked like it enjoyed playing together.
KU, on the other hand, could have another early tournament exit in its future. Sorry to cut to the chase so early, it’s only November, but it’s the same formula for the Jayhawks as it’s been in the past five years. All the hype surrounds a freshman (or two). This year it’s Josh Jackson. Three years ago Andrew Wiggins came into Kansas with a similar expectation and similar position with the team. Wiggins, you could easily argue, was surrounded by a lot more talent. While Frank Mason III and Devonte’ Graham may be the best backcourt in the Big 12, there isn’t a ton down low that really scares opposing teams. Kansas was out-rebounded 50-39 against Indiana in this one.
Leading up to the Sweet 16, there were too many moments to count. But let’s count down a top 10 anyway!
10. Iowa
Iowa makes the list despite slumping late in the season to register a seven seed and not showing up for the Villanova game. But we digress. Check out this buzzer beater to lift the Hawkeyes above the Owls in a classic first round battle.
9. Providence
Normally-safe-leads disappearing within a shot clock’s time was the trend of the first weekend. And, in the Providence USC game, guarding the baseline is the lasting lesson.
8. University of Arkansas Little Rock
6-11 non-deep threat Lis Soshi’s three pointer will live in Little Rock lore. Down four points with thirty seconds to go, Soshi got an opportunity to jack one up. It hit the back rim, popped straight up and dropped. The undersized team from Little Rock slayed the Big 10 giant. How apropos!
7. Wichita State
Go to your google search. Start typing “Fred Van Vleet.” Google will jump ahead to suggest “and Ron Baker.” The 2016 NCAA Basketball Tournament marked the end of an era. Guards Van Vleet and Baker began their fantastic run in 2013 as freshmen when they played key roles in a 9-seed run to the Final Four. The run ended in 2016, but not before thrashing a larger Vanderbilt team and a dismantling of a taller and more experienced (than the Commodores) Arizona bunch.
6. Saint Joseph’s
This moment will be lost because neither of these teams advanced to the Sweet 16, which is exactly why we’re sticking this finish smack-dab in the middle of our list. If Cincinatti coach Mick Cronin moves onto UNLV, or anywhere, can we really blame him? His team lost consecutive times to finish the 2016 campaign. Both were on reviewable plays. Once was in a quadruple overtime loss to UCONN in the American Conference Championship. The other moment was a play that will redefine how dunks are viewed for the rest of end-game history:
Saint Joseph’s moved on to give the 1-seed Oregon Ducks a real scare. For a moment, that moment being 4:49 left in the game and a 5 point lead, the Hawks had the Ducks on the ropes. Saint Joseph’s looked like the Cinderella Final Four candidate. What could have been…
5. Wisconsin
The Badgers went from a team that couldn’t win a home court game against Wisconsin (RPI 173) earlier in the season, to a team that knocked off a near 1-seed. Xavier was a sexy pick to make at least the Elite 8 after returning the favor against Big East foe Villanova late in the season. Wisconsin, meanwhile, was a team that had lost its longtime coach, Bo Ryan. Ryan effectively stepped aside so that his longtime assistant, Greg Gard, could get a season-long on-the-job interview. After also suffering losses to Western Illinois (RPI 262), Georgetown (RPI 106) and Marquette (RPI 111) earlier this season, Bronsin Koning reminded us that he has game, especially in March.
4. Yale
For this year’s One Shining Moment montage, an entire stanza should be dedicated to Makai Mason highlights. Luther Vandross’s velvety voice could play as we see Mason’s sikly smooth jumpshot. This guy scored a career high 31 points as Yale upset Baylor. The brains behind this website didn’t see it coming. Yes, the 12 seed has been a frequently common and notorious predator of the 5 seed. But this was a sweeter upset given another factor. Yale was without its senior captain point guard, Jack Montague, who had been excused from the school. It didn’t matter. Let it fly, Makai…
3. UNI
Never have we ever seen such a turn of events for a program. The University of Northern Iowa registered both the most unbelievable win this tournament, and it’s most unbelievable loss. And, let’s not forget, UNI got into the Big Dance with a buzzer-beater in the MVC Championship game against Evansville. But that was a shot within the half court set.
2. Texas A&M
As we mentioned, UNI suffered the worst loss in this tournament. We had to juxtapose the two mentions in back-to-back slots on this countdown. What we can’t do, however, is to replay that meltdown for you. You will have to find it on YouTube for yourselves. We don’t want to see it again. Let’s just say they let an 11 point lead slip away within 58 seconds. You got to tip your hat to those boys at Texas A&M!
1. Middle Tennessee
Just when the month of March was rumored to be renamed “Izzo,” madness happened again. Tom Izzo’s Spartans were the darling of this field, yet again. Their 2-seeding seemed odd to some, but no one was crying foul. Denzel Valentine was runner-up as player of the year and “they got this.”
Until Conference USA struck for a second consecutive season (see UAB vs. Iowa State). It made Vegas underdog wagerers “Giddy” and had them counting new fortunes in their “Potts.”
In all seriousness, this was a display by the Blue Raiders akin to what Florida Gulf Coast did in 2013. They were a 15 seed that not only won the contest, but dominated wire-to-wire.
The tournament selection committee created this Indiana Kentucky matchup, just as they created the Kansas Wichita State matchup last year. And we thank them.
Why should a committee formed to, by definition, arrange a competitive and entertaining tournament, pretend that it is NOT pinning these teams against each other?
If you are just tuning in from home, the Indiana and Kentucky programs no longer schedule each other during the regular-season, despite long-standing rivalries. The same with Kansas. Right now the Jayhawks don’t want to schedule the Shockers in their regular season slate.
The pilgramage of college basketball fanatics to Sin City is on.
There is only one guarantee: Madness will happen. To capitalize on it is the challenge.
At first glance, some deserving teams are being shown no love from the sports books across the desert. Dayton, for example, has had its hiccups late in the season. However, 100-to-1 odds in such a wide-open season seems too generous.
In five short weeks, Oregon has gone from unranked to a one seed. Between Bill Walton’s drumming of the glockenspiel and the West Coast time zone, the seriousness of the Ducks was drowned out to a national audience. Now they’re 15/1 to win the entire thing. Most books have them as the 6th favorite in line to win a national championship.
But we remember the glockenspiel. We remember watching this team and hearing about their deficiencies — ranked outside the top 5o in effective defense, a point guard you cannot name, and a wildly athletic yet still raw and super thin (6-10, 190 lbs) center in Chris Boucher.
What we’re saying is that Saint Joseph’s at 200/1 to win a championship, as is Cincinatti at 100/1, because those teams look a lot like Oregon. Whatever team wins the 8-9 matchup will likely take on the ducks. The Cincy Bearcats especially resemble the Ducks, as they appear to have four or five small forwards who get playing time. For Saint Joe’s we have a whole lot more to tell you about star De’andre Bembry. Click here.
If Oregon plays anything like the glockenspiel game, you guys will be in business with those odds.
Some other odds that caught our attention was Providence at 200/1 with one of America’s best players, Wichita State at 75/1 with their experience, and Stephen F. Austin for an absolute haymaker for 500/1. If the Lumberjacks get past West Virginia, they could grab momentum in a sweet spot of the bracket. Plus, this system at Stephen F. performed well against so-called “Havoc” two years ago as they beat VCU. West Virginia’s press shouldn’t be a knockout punch.
If you are gambling in Vegas for the tournament, here are a Final Four of tips I like to stick to. As you’ll see, I am not a high roller. I also don’t take myself too seriously. If you see me at a Vegas Sports Book, say “what’s up” and tell me who passes your eye test.
Enjoy the tourney,
Matty D.
A FINAL FOUR OF WAGERING RULES
1. The Hay-maker Don’t just throw hay-makers, but combo hay-makers.
This year my hay-makers are:
A. Green Bay +850 vs. Texas A&M
B. UT Chattanooga +600 vs. Indiana
C. UNC Wilmington +400 vs. Duke
D. Fresno State +325 vs. Utah
Money Line Parlay Combos:
AxB
AxC
AxD
BxC
BxD
CxD
2. Teasers Fund Parlays
This is a rule I hear tossed around all the time. Normally, a three team 5-point teaser pays 1.5 to 1. So a lot of people will align their teasers to fund their parlays. For example, betting $20 on a standard 3 team parlay on the points will return $120. Therefore, if you put $14 on a 5-point teaser with the same three teams, you will break even at the end of the day if those teams cover 5 points beyond the natural spread. Nope, I am definitely not talking about a home equity loan. I am talking about using a slew of 5-point teasers to help fun the more risky parlay bets. In this example, I am using a teaser card of eight 5-point teams to help improve my odds.
5 Point Teaser
1. Arkansas Little Rock +12 (up from 7)
2. Butler +2.5 (up from -2.5)
3. Baylor EVEN (up from -5)
4. Seton Hall +4 (up from -1)
5. Kentucky -8.5 (up from -13.5) 6. Providence +4 (up from -1)
7. Temple +12 (up from 7) *Friday game
8. Stephen F. Austin +12 (up from 7) *Friday game
1. Arkansas Little Rock +7
2. Butler -2.5
2. Temple +7
3. Stephen F. Austin +7
Note: Yale is admittedly without its senior captain, point guard Jack Montague. This could be the best 5 point teaser on the board as Baylor matches Yale’s strength, forwards who can score, with size and strength on its front line.
3. Shop Around
If you are in Vegas early and walking the strip, shop around for futures. You might be surprised how much the odds vary, especially the more you browse underdogs. Save time by researching which Casinos share the same oddsmaker service.
4. Good Dogs ALWAYS Cover the First Half
You don’t want your favorite underdog to dominate 95% of the game, as we see year in, year out, and you not cash in. Enjoy that cocktail at halftime.
College Basketball Eye Test 