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8. Kellen Martin, Butler Sophomore Small Forward

A lot of focus for Texas Tech’s defense will be on senior Roosevelt Jones, and rightfully so.

But this boy Kellen Martin is a grinder as well.

Some have compared him to Paul Pierce.  Martin certainly has the lower center of gravity.  He likes to initiate the contact, create a bump for the elevating defender, and finishes well.  Martin averages 16 points this season on 45% shooting and getting to the foul line about 4 times a game.  He has an attitude that’s ready to take over.

I could go on and on, but Bill Raftery and Gus Johnson are more qualified.  Listen to their thoughts during this highlight tape…

7. Stefan Jankovic, Hawaii Junior Power Forward

We admit, this is a stretch.  It’s a stretch because Hawaii is a projected 13 seed at this point.  But Jankovic is also a stretch forward who is peaking at the right time.  He scored 25 in a critical late season road win against UC Irvine.  His Rainbows came back from a 5 point deficit with 2 minutes left to play.  The Missouri transfer’s offensive game has really improved over his 3 years.  Jankovic banked in a 3-pointer to help Hawaii win this one.  He averages 16 points per game, including 41% from behind the arc.

6.  Markis McDuffie, Wichita State Freshman Forward

In 2014, we learned who freshmen Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker were as the Shockers marched into the Final Four.  Coach Greg Marshall is willing to let his talented freshman play a role.  We were introduced to Markis McDuffie in a larger dose over the holidays as Van Vleet was injured and Connor Frankampt was still unavailable.  At 6-8, McDuffie’s game reminds us slightly of Tracie McGrady.  Buckle up.

5.  Shonn Miller, UCONN Sophomore Forward

In 2013-14, forward DeAndre Daniels shot out of a canon as the Huskies embarked on their championship run.  With a fleet of guards at Connecticut, having a power forward put his stamp on a game can be a matchup nightmare in a tournament setting.  Miller jumps out of the gym, defends his position well, and, is frankly playing under his potential as this season winds down.  If he has a DeAndre Daniels-like contribution in mid-March, look out.   It could be…another “revelation.”

4.  Isaiah Taylor, Texas Junior Point Guard

Isaiah Taylor has done a 180 compared to last year.  Last season as a sophomore, there were times that he stubbornly penetrated into the middle of a zone, only to throw up a flailing floater to hit back rim.  Shaka Smart has been lauded for keeping Taylor at Texas.  Taylor should be lauded for turning his game around.  This season he is more of the prototypical point guard,  not as fixated on his  own offensive game, but, wait for it, “letting the game come to him.”  Texas is a really dangerous team!  Taylor epitomizes why.  He has grown under Shaka Smart’s leadership.   Taylor is averaging two points more per game (15.1) than last year, while taking essentially the same number of shots.  He has 36 more assists this time versus last.  And, Taylor has cut his turnovers from 2.6 a game to 1.9.  We don’t often get stat geeky, but the numbers support what we’re seeing during the games.  Taylor has matured and this team is gaining confidence that Shaka Smart’s inaugural year does not have to be a throw-away transitional one.

3.DeAndre Bembry, Saint Joseph’s Junior Forward

Is it possible to go 22-4 and still be under the radar?  While A-10 teams like George Washington and VCU got national airtime early in the season, the Hawks have steadily been one of the best teams in the Northeast.

Bembry looks a little bit like Scottie Pippen out there.  He is a point forward, able to take one of his eight rebounds per game coast-to-coast.  Bembry scores 16 points per game.

https://twitter.com/SPORTalkSJU/status/701065087830908929/photo/1?ref_src=twsrctfw

2. Ben Bentil, Providence Sophomore Power Forward

As Kris Dunn received accolades for being a great NBA prospect and defender, his teammate Bentil has quietly become one of America’s most improved players.  Bentil went from scoring 7 and grabbing 5 boards as a freshman to now averaging 21 and 8.  His aggression in the low post is a handful at 6-9 235 lbs.  Bentil can also hit a long jumper, even knocking down a whopping 48 threes this season (at 33%).  We’re interested to see what scrums he gets into for loose balls with UNC (assuming Providence beats USC), because Bentil’s ferocity is something that has not been exhibited this season by the Tar Heels.

(Note: Jaylen Brown was removed from this article because his team is a 4 seed and should no longer be considered an unknown as a potential lottery pick).

1. Troy Caupain, Cincinatti Junior Point Guard 

On a very deep and athletic Bearcats team, Troy Caupain can easily be the x-factor.  Take, for example, the game against UCONN February 20th.  It was a game that Cincinatti needed to stay on the right side of the bubble.  Caupain was clutch!  He played 37 minutes, dropping 8 assists with just one turnover.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Valpairaso Crusaders
8 PM ET ESPNU

Most fans who closely watch college basketball know about Kay Felder and this Oakland Grizzlies game because of their overtime performance against Michigan State over the holidays.  But Valpairaso is four games up on the Grizzlies in the Horizon standings with a 22-5 record.  Senior Vashil Fernandez leads Valpo on the defensive end, as the Crusaders ranked first (among 351 D1 college teams) on kenpom.com’s adjusted defensive kenpom.com’s adjusted defensive rankings.  Junion Alec Peters is the stretch-four-type who averages 16 1/2 points per game.  Tevvon Walker hit 6 of 8 three pointers in these teams’ first game this season for the 84-67 win.

Right before this game, sports reporter with The Oakland Press, Daniel Tallant, tweeted collegebasketballeyetest.com, “Oakland has impressed on the road this year.”

“(I) can only imagine how badly Felder and Kampe want tonight’s game. Huge chance for Oakland,” Tallant said.

For the Grizzlies, the game also comes as sharpshooter Max Hooper earns national publicity this week.  ESPN, Sbnation, and Yahoo Sports all have articles on how he has only attempted three point jump shots (62-138) this season.  Hooper epitomizes the Mötley Crüe that the Grizzlies run with.  Kay Felder is a college basketball star, but is only 5-9.  Center Percy Gibson is a load at 6-9, 271 lbs.  Hooper is hanging at the three point line.  Jalen Hayes is an athletic 6-7 sophomore averaging 14 points, 8 rebounds a game.  At the end of that Spartan’s game, the Grizzlies inability to guard the post cost them.

For tonight’s contest, Valpairaso Journalism Professor Paul Oren puts it best.

“Two of the best mid-major players/teams doing battle for second time,” Oren said Friday afternoon.

“Will there be a third?”

Iona Gaels at Monmouth Hawks
10 PM ET ESPNU

These teams don’t like each other.  That was made clear when Iona’s Jordan Washington punched Monmouth’s Chris Brady after their game in January.

However, it was the Gaels who got smacked in the mouth (on their home floor).

The Hawks displayed the best shooting half we have seen this entire college basketball season.  Monmouth won 110-102, but it wasn’t even that close.

Monmouth’s bench has gotten all of the pub this season.  However, it’s point guard Justin Robinson who deserves more ink.  The 5-8 junior is the engine that makes the Hawks go.  He averages 20 points per game, which is incredible when you watch Monmouth in action.  Robinson is a facilitator first and does some incredible things with the ball in transition.

Iona, meanwhile, is hurting from the loss of MAAC freshman of the year Schadrac Casimir.  Casimir is the type of shooter that Monmouth showcased in that second half.  Iona is only 15-10 on the season, but still a threat with an elite scorer in A.J. English (21 per).  Expect this one to be a track meet!

Here is the Collegebasketballeyetest.com Top 25 (left) versus the latest USA Today Coaches Poll (right).

Left out:

Arizona

Arizona’s guard play scares us.  Gabe York has been forced into situational point guard duties, but he performs best when squaring up off-the-ball.  Allonzo Trier has been coming on as of late, but an even split 1-1 against non-conference RPI top 50 teams (Providence, Gonzaga) doesn’t thrust you into our top 25.

Monmouth

Monmouth and Seton Hall were honestly a toss-up.  Both teams have a similar flavor.  They remind us of recent, underestimated Tri-state teams which have overachieved (Iona, Siena, Manhattan) in the tourney.  They are guard-heavy, penetrate with a quintessential “city game,” and beat opponents to lose balls.  In this case, Seton Hall has more size (Angel Delgado averages 10.5 and 9.9) and gets the nod.

Duke

Don’t be fooled by the top 20 ranking.  Not coincidentally, Duke has a primetime ESPN Network matchup against #5 UNC on Wednesday.  Until this team gets Amile Jefferson back, we see their identity explained better with the three game losing streak (at Clemson; hosting Notre Dame, Syracuse) instead of the win at home versus #7 Virginia.

Tevonn Walker, Valparaiso Sophomore Guard 

You often hear that the tournament committee will take into consideration the injury of an important player.  If true, it should be noted that Walker missed the Horizon League Championship game against Green Bay with a right ankle sprain.  Walker plays about 23 minutes per game.  Losing a solid ball-handler in tournament play is nothing to sneeze at.  With Valparaiso, the offense should always run through forward star Alec Peters.  Walker is one of the better facilitators on the team.  He also hits about 1 of 3 three pointers per game.  On a few occasions, he got hot from behind the line and won some games for the Crusaders.  It’s our position that Valpo should get a bid and that they’re a better team with Walker in the lineup.

Amile Jefferson, Duke Senior Forward 

Life was difficult for a young Blue Devils squad after Amile Jefferson broke his right foot in early December.  However, Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram have been clicking on offense.  Duke was the most efficient offense in college basketball in early February when they beat Louisville and Virginia.  It was recently reported that Amile Jefferson will return not return and will seek a medical  red shirt.   This is a huge loss for Duke in terms of defense and, of course, pure experience.

Jordan Bell, Oregon Sophomore Forward

Oregon has long-been a darling of collegebasketballeyetest.com’s this season.  The Ducks could easily be a Final Four team.  When you watch, Jordan Bell appears to be an X factor.  After returning in mid-December from foot surgery, the Ducks won any game in which Bell scored 7 or more points.  At 6-8 he is one of few “rim protectors.”  The Ducks are rather small compared to most teams you’d tab as a possible Final Four.  But they have about as solid a seven man rotation as you could ask for.  Bell shows flashes of being the type of bench player that could help cut the nets.  In 14 minutes of action in a win against Utah, Bell grabbed 4 boards, blocked 3 shots and scored 10.  He has already set the all-time career record for shots blocked at Oregon with 120 (92 in his freshman season). Bell’s production has fluctuated slightly late this season, so I’d monitor Eugene writers such as Tyson Alger to see how that surgically-repaired foot is doing.  During the PAC 12 Tournament, Bell struggled by getting into foul trouble often.  No word on whether that’s connected to the foot injury.

Casey Jones,  Chattanooga Senior Guard

Casey Jones is a thousand  point scorer in his career with the Mocs.  As a junior, he averaged over 14 per game.  Jones suffered an ankle injury in early December.  Despite missing the game, his Chattanooga team went into Dayton and beat the Flyers by two points.  As reported by WDEF-TV, Jones was considering re-entering the lineup as recently as late February.  However, reports during the conference tournament said that he is out for the remainder of the season.

Jameel McKay, Iowa State Senior Forward 

Jameel McKay has been hampered throughout the season with a knee injury.  He also fell out of graces with coach Prohm in mid-February, and missed action during a short-lived “indefinite suspension.”  We all know how thin Iowa State’s bench is after Naz Long’s season-ending injury.  It will be important to monitor not only McKay’s health, but his production level, while he potentially plays injured headed into the postseason.

Cameron Ridley, Texas Senior Center

Shaka Smart’s Longhorns have played lights out since the start of 2016.  Cam Ridley played sparingly in a Big 12 Championship quarterfinal game, which is an added bonus for Texas.  His size and experience can help greatly in the tournament setting.  However, the Longhorns have found chemistry without him.  Prince Ibeh has risen from a role player, who grabs rebounds and defends in spurts, to one of college basketball’s premiere shot-blockers.  Coach Smart has kept the entire cast of highly talented guards, including Isaiah Taylor, who is playing more controlled this season at point guard.  Cameron Ridley would make Texas an even more frightening opponent come March Madness.

Amida Brimah, UCONN Junior Center 

The big man missed 11 games with a broken finger.  When he returned, he blocked just 6 shots in his first five games back.  For a guy who had 9 rejections in the first game of the season, this is noticeable.  We can assume Brimah is 100% health-wise come March Madness.  However, can a guy who is notably a raw talent get back into an effective rhythm and protect the rim?  In a American Conference tournament game, he showed that he is back to full strength against a tough Cincinatti bunch.  Brimah registered 47 minutes in the quadruple overtime game, scoring 10, boarding 9 and blocking 5.

Here are some usual suspects poised to return to March Madness with a vengeance.  These are not just guys with tournament experience, but deep tournament experience.  These players are winners.  They’ve performed in clutch situations.  If you see them performing in March, you’ll ask yourself, “damn, didn’t that kid play against Anthony Davis’s Kentucky squad?”  Nope, but one of these guys did play on his Wildcat team.

Scoochie Smith, Dayton Flyers Senior Guard 

Who can forget the name Scoochie?  Not Syracuse Orange fans.  In 2014, Scoochie scored 5 points and dropped 3 assists in 18 minutes of work to help his Flyers ascend into the Sweet 16.  Scoochie had an identical stat-line when they beat Stanford and reached the Elite 8.  Flanked by 2014 teammates Kendall Pollard and Dyshawn Pierre, the Flyers could rise again this March.

Yogi Ferrell, Indiana Hoosiers Senior Guard 

On March 28, 2013, a young Kevin Ferrell joined a lineup that included Victor Oladipo, Cody Zeller, Christian Watford and Will Sheehey.  Ferrell was held scoreless as Michael Carter-Williams’s Orange moved past Indiana and into the Elite 8.  In the three seasons to follow, Ferrell has scored about 1,600 points as the cast of characters evolved around him.  This season, James Blackmon Jr. was lost for the season with a knee injury, but freshmen OG Anunoby and Thomas Bryant are maturing around him.  Let’s see what Ferrell can orchestrate in his Big Dance swan song.

Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona Wildcats Senior Guard 

Tarczewski has seen the highs and lows of a college basketball career.  He too has played with the studs.  In 2013-14, his Wildcats lost a heart-breaker to Wisconsin in the Elite 8.  That team featured current NBA players Aaron Gordon, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and T.J. McConnell (plus Brandon Ashley and Nick Johnson).  Tarczewski has also battled injury.  He missed eight games this season.  Tarczewski averages 10 points and 8 boards.  It won’t be a lack of postseason experience that keeps he and his fellow grizzled veteran, Gabe York, from succeeding in this tournament.

Ron Baker & Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State Senior Guards 

Both Baker and Van Vleet played critical minutes in Wichita State’s historic march into the 2013 Final Four.  In fact, as freshmen, these guards played a combined 60 minutes in a Final Four matchup against (eventual champion) Louisville.  Since that Cinderella run, Van Vleet has contributed 492 assists to 143 turnovers.  Van Vleet missed some time early in this 2016 campaign due to an ankle injury.  If both these guys are healthy, watch for a serious run reminiscent of the Butler Bulldogs or Shockers of earlier this decade.

Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga Senior Forward 

It would be almost impossible for Wiltjer’s collegiate career to not finish in anti-climatic fashion.  As a freshman, the 2011 McDonald’s All-American from Portland Oregon became a member of the 2012 Kentucky Wildcats championship team.  He sat a year in order to transfer to Gonzaga.  Last season, as you know, his Bulldogs lost to the eventual champion Duke Blue Devils in the Elite 8 game.  Wiltjer has bulked up considerably over his college career, especially in that off-year during the transfer.  After losing Premet Karnowski, Gonzaga’s ceiling is not as high as he might have hoped.  However, Wiltjer is one of few guys in college basketball who still has “in the gym” range.  If I were an opponent, I would hate to face this 23-year-old intent on a last hurrah.

With players transferring basically at-will, 5th year seniors shaking things up, and the landscape of college basketball constantly shifting, let’s just do it.  Let’s allow for in-season trades.  The one caveat is that both the student and coach have to sign-off on it.  Here are some win-wins I could envision for current programs.

Trade Proposal 1:

Purdue receives: Darius Thompson, G Virginia

Evan Nolte, F Virginia

Virginia receives: Isaac Haas, C Purdue

Big man Isaac Haas played 8 minutes in the last outing for Purdue. Meanwhile, at Virginia, explosive sophomore Darius Thompson played 7 in a win versus Syracuse. I propose a trade between the two teams. Adding Isaac Haas could elevate Virginia to a national championship contender (if they weren’t already). Virginia would have to throw in Evan Nolte to compensate for size. Purdue could use some help handling the ball, but they have an embarrassment of riches with big men and senior center A.J. Hammons demanding around 25 minutes a game. If Purdue added Thompson, it would give them a nice scoring option at point guard to compliment some nice swing players they already have. Thompson is not just a feed-the-post-then-watch type of guard. His ability to attack the basket and slash without the ball could make Purdue’s length at the rim even more dominant. The emergence of freshman power forward Caleb Swanigan at Purdue has also made this trade possible. Avid college basketball junkies like myself have been salivating over the prospect of Haas and Hammons seeing the floor at the same time, but it is just not to be.

Trade Proposal 2:

West Virginia receivers: Brannon Greene, G Kansas

Cheick Diallo, F Kansas

Kansas receives: Devin Williams, F West Virginia

I understand that coach Huggy Bear loves Devin Williams. But our ficticious, Eye Test GM has to step in with a simple observation. Williams struggles at times to defend in West Virginia’s full court pressure. He has fouled out of 3 of the first 20 games and finished another 3 games with 4 personals. Meanwhile, Bill Self doesn’t play that full-court havoc defensive style. Kansas loves to feed the post, but Landen Lucas and Hunter Mickelson aren’t dominant offensive players. Adding Devin Williams with a starting five that could include Perry Ellis, Wayne Selden, Devauntes Graham and Frank Mason III would put the Jayhawks in the UNC and Maryland neighborhood as far as the best roster on paper. Meanwhile, despite the glut of publicity the “Free Diallo” movement made, the freshman can barely find a role in KU’s rotation. However, when he finds the floor, his tenacity and hustles quickly allows him to find a niche. This versatility and high motor would work perfectly in West Virginia’s system. Brannon Greene would get his shots and help boost West Virginia’s scoring punch.

Trade Proposal 3:

Arizona receives: Derrick Gordon, G Seton Hall

Seton Hall receives: Dusan Ristic, C Arizona

Arizona has lost two straight Pac 12 games and needs to get right. The Wildcats still have a void of a court-general point guards after T.J. McConnell graduated. The veteran leadership for the Wildcats has been based, instead, in the post with the addition of Ryan Anderson. With Kaleb Tarzewski back from injury, Dusan Ristic is only averaging 18 minutes-per-game, which is on the decline. At 7 foot, he would instantly become the tallest post player for the Pirates. Seton Hall has a full cast of ball-handling sophomores. As a bubble team, Ristic would balance the team and allow a strong run in the Big East tournament. Gordon, meanwhile, is one of the better backcourt defenders in the Big East. His experience will help against remaining Pac-12 point guards like Gary Payton Jr. and Bryce Alford. Gordon, a Massachusetts transfer, is a 24-year-old senior and ready to win now.

It’s the Gold Glove syndrome.  Once a player is given a gold glove, he is grandfathered in for years to come.

In college basketball, it’s a similar formula for top 25 teams.  Once anointed in the preseason top 25, teams have to bobble the ball to cease receiving votes.

Here are 5 teams that could jump on our radar in March:

1. Seton Hall

They beat both SEC bubble teams, Georgia and Ole Miss, that they faced.  They shocked Wichita State.  Most recently, the Pirates ransacked Marquette in their building.  This Seton Hall bunch was ranked this time last season, as then-freshman Isaiah Whitehead was making his presence known.  Now their cast of super-sophomores (Carrington, Sanogo, Rodriguez and others) are only getting better.  Add a splash of senior leadership from UMASS transfer, and defensive stopper, Derrick Gordon.  This team is city tough and doesn’t rely on one or two guys to lead in the box score.  If Big East counterparts such as Butler and Providence are consistently ranked in the top 15, it’s time that Seton Hall starts receiving ballots.  The Pirates currently sit atop the standings in the Big East, although four teams are ranked nationally above them in the AP poll.

2. High Point

The Panthers have one of the best players no one knows about.  Forward John Brown is scoring 18 per game, shooting 57% and grabbing 7 rebounds.  Brown is undersized, yet slippery in the post.  His game reminds you of  Kenneth Faried in terms of his high motor.  The Panthers have a 1,000 point scorer at guard in Adam Weary.  Lorenzo Cugini is a guy who can both bang down low but stretch the floor at the 4-spot.  High Point has four losses on the season, none by more than four points.  They almost won a game in Georgia despite Brown being in foul trouble throughout.

3. Valpairaso

The Crusaders are another team without a bad loss and a bad-ass defense.  Valpairaso ranks third in kenpom.com’s defensive ranking nationwide.  And, when you watch the games, you’ll see the strong defense begins with rim-protector Vashil Fernandez.  Alec Peters has been emerging in the last year, averaging 17 and 7 per game.  The 6-9 junior could have a Wally Szczerbiak type of splash on the national scene if opposing defenses sleep on his versatility.

4.  Wichita State

Here’s a not-so-bold-prediction.  Wichita State will win the Missouri Valley and head into the tournament pissed off with their #11 seed.  They’ll end out rolling over a West Virginia or South Carolina.  Teams with full or aggressive ball pressure won’t scare Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker.  The Shockers sit at 7-5 in no small measure because of a November injury to Van Vleet in where the Shockers were competing in holiday tournaments.  They also added Connor Frankamp, the Kansas transfer guard, since Van Vleet’s return.  The Shockers are younger and more inexperienced in the post, but Greg Marshall is finding his rotation inside as he always does.  They did beat Utah this season.  As you know, the Utes have one of the best true offensive post players in the nation with Jacob Poeltl.  A major development for Wichita is that, while playing short-handed, 6-8 freshman from Jersey City Markis McDuffie has been inserted into a regular rotation.  This team will be tournament ready with depth on the wings.  The Shockers are another team that have stopped receiving AP votes.

5.  Hawaii

It’s almost as if this team plays on an island.  They’re 10-2 in the non-conference and no one is talking about them.  The “Rainbow Warriors” are normally the team that gets crushed as their happy to host a holiday tournament that draws real talent.  This year it was a role reversal.  Hawaii dominated Northern Iowa and Auburn.  Hawaii’s only losses include losing by 3 to third-ranked Oklahoma and also losing at Texas Tech.  Hawaii is a team that wants to get into a track meet.  They are undersized but very quick and ready to shoot on the spot.  6-11 power forward Stefan Jankovic is also finally playing up to his talent level in his junior season.  He began his collegiate career at Missouri.  Jankovic is averaging 14 points and 6 boards.

The college basketball schedule for Tuesday, December 22nd treats its fans  with presents and the license to unwrap them.

Here’s what collegebasketballeyetest.com predicts will be inside…

(6) Xavier -8 at Wake Forest
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍🔍🔍🔍 (*Max 5 glasses)
Prediction: Xavier 67, Wake Forest 63
DFS Play:  J.P. Macura

Synopsis:

Xavier better be careful here.  Despite analysts firing off early about the Musketeers being Final 4-caliber, we know this nucleus is recently congealed.  Both teams are excelling with efficient guard play.  Wake Forest currently sits atop the ACC standings after wins against Indiana, UCLA and Arkansas.  The bubble watch is high here because a win against Xavier would be the knockout punch that solidifies Wake’s non-conference excellence.  They’re 8-2.  The Demon Deacons have kept every game close.  The largest margin in its 10 games was a 10 point win versus UNC Greensboro.  I am choosing J.P. Macura as my daily fantasy play.  I’m banking on a high scoring affair with fast perimeter play and Macura sneaking behind the line for a couple of threes.

(11) Iowa State at (22) Cincinatti (-4)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍
Prediction: Cincinatti 81, Iowa State 65
DFS Play: Troy Caupain

Synopsis:

Play with fire, you get burned.  Iowa State finally suffered a loss after one of its custom slow starts.  UNI beat them on a neutral floor.  And, with all due respect to Northern Iowa, the Bearcats are much more athletic and much deeper.  The UNI loss just scratched the surface on how Naz Long’s loss will affect this Iowa State team.  As flawless as Monte Morris has been at running the point, his counterpart tonight in Troy Caupain has quietly been one of the nation’s best.  I think Morris suffers from carrying a heavy burden tonight while Caupain flourishes while finding his gym rats in transition.  I think this is finally the game where Iowa State gets off to a slow start (See Illinois, Iowa, UNI) and it ends up becoming an embarrassment.  Watch closely for a ferocious battle between Octavius Ellis and Jamaal McKay down low—those are two dudes you’d want to pick first for size in a street game.  This game is very low as far as bubble watch is concerned, because each is a 2-6 seed caliber tournament team regardless of outcome.

Vanderbilt at (14) Purdue (-6)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍🔍🔍
Prediction: Purdue 71, Vanderbilt 60
DFS Play: Isaac Haas

Synopsis:

I’ll wait until I see the final score before I say “I feel sorry” for Vanderbilt going without center Luke Kornett.  Purdue has two giants in the middle.  I am not talking about Odell Beckham Junior giants, but more like Andre the Giant giants.  Hammons and Haas should be pretty angry after a loss to Xavier.  I think Vanderbilt was exposed for some offensive lack of creativity in its Dayton loss and can’t help but predict a similar out-toughness against a very strong Purdue team.  There’s a moderate bubble alert on for Vanderbilt, because, on the heels of that Dayton loss, they have some making up to do.  Aside from Kentucky and Texas A&M, the SEC won’t have many teams to topple in order to punch a ticket to March Madness.  Even LSU has proven in this non-conference that it could be a bubble team.  Vanderbilt could boost its stock greatly with a surprise win tonight.

California at (5) Virginia (-15)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍🔍🔍🔍
Prediction:  UVA 58, Cal 54
DFS Play:  Ivan Rabb

Synopsis:

This game is an interesting clash of conflicting character.  Virginia has the old-man game.  They’ll lock you down on defense with solid team principles and the fact that they’ve played together for 2, 3, 4 years collectively.  California is the McDonald’s All-American squad.  They have a kid like Ivan Rabb who nets comparisons to Kevin Garnett, but haven’t yet found a true identity on either side of the floor.  However, they have the talent to shock Virginia in this spot.  And, it would stamp their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.  We know the way national analysts salivated over Cal’s talent in the preseason, ranking them in the top 25, and the NCAA wouldn’t let that hype train circumvent mid-March.  Back to basketball.  Virginia does not have a true “rim protector,” so if freshmen Rabb and Jaylen Brown attack the way they’re capable of, this could get interesting.  Expect a low scoring game regardless.  That’s what Virginia does.  Especially at home.

(2) Kansas at San Diego State (-7)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍
Prediction:  Kansas 72, San Diego State 60
DFS Play:  Jamari Traylor

Synopsis:

Kansas has revenge on its mind.  San Diego State came into Allen Fieldhouse two seasons ago and beat the Jayhawks.  Now, with some wacky things going on with the Aztecs, elder statesmen like Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor and Frank Mason III can return the favor.  Wayne Selden Jr., who also played in that January 2014 upset, has been playing out of his mind this year.  He has become the small forward that NBA scouts expected coming to Lawrence as a high school All-American.  San Diego State’s expected offensive leaders this season, Winston Shepherd and Malik Pope, just played a combined 30 minutes in a shocking loss to Grand Canyon in the Aztecs last game.  The Bubble-barometer is at a level one for this game.  That’s because the Aztecs haven’t played like a tournament team and I doubt this will be the game that changes that.  Neophytes Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo have been getting P.T. in a process coach Bill Self hopes is another Final 4 run.  But expect the Jamari Traylors of the roster, the guys who can expect and benefit from the San Diego State post double-team, to run wild.