Unknown's avatar

About College Basketball Eye Test

There is no replacement for actually watching the games. My name is Matty D. I am a college basketball junkie. And, although I respect big data stat gurus like kenpom.com, this website is the antithesis of that. Talk hoops with me and tell me what you've actually seen. What players step up in clutch situations? Which coaches make the right adjustments? Who disappears when the lights get bright? The "college basketball eye test" is a chat dedicated to storylines bubbling below the surface before they become national trends. Check the first-ever article I wrote on this website. I listed UCONN as one of 5 underdogs I could see winning the NCAA title. They did. Last season Darren Rovell tweeted visual proof of how I predicted upset victories for UAB and Georgia State together. Watch the games and join the conversation. Tweet @CBBEyeTest and have your observations added to the mix!

NCAA trade proposals

With players transferring basically at-will, 5th year seniors shaking things up, and the landscape of college basketball constantly shifting, let’s just do it.  Let’s allow for in-season trades.  The one caveat is that both the student and coach have to sign-off on it.  Here are some win-wins I could envision for current programs.

Trade Proposal 1:

Purdue receives: Darius Thompson, G Virginia

Evan Nolte, F Virginia

Virginia receives: Isaac Haas, C Purdue

 

Big man Isaac Haas played 8 minutes in the last outing for Purdue. Meanwhile, at Virginia, explosive sophomore Darius Thompson played 7 in a win versus Syracuse. I propose a trade between the two teams. Adding Isaac Haas could elevate Virginia to a national championship contender (if they weren’t already). Virginia would have to throw in Evan Nolte to compensate for size. Purdue could use some help handling the ball, but they have an embarrassment of riches with big men and senior center A.J. Hammons demanding around 25 minutes a game. If Purdue added Thompson, it would give them a nice scoring option at point guard to compliment some nice swing players they already have. Thompson is not just a feed-the-post-then-watch type of guard. His ability to attack the basket and slash without the ball could make Purdue’s length at the rim even more dominant. The emergence of freshman power forward Caleb Swanigan at Purdue has also made this trade possible. Avid college basketball junkies like myself have been salivating over the prospect of Haas and Hammons seeing the floor at the same time, but it is just not to be.

 

Trade Proposal 2:

 

West Virginia receivers: Brannon Greene, G Kansas

Cheick Diallo, F Kansas

Kansas receives: Devin Williams, F West Virginia

 

I understand that coach Huggy Bear loves Devin Williams. But our ficticious, Eye Test GM has to step in with a simple observation. Williams struggles at times to defend in West Virginia’s full court pressure. He has fouled out of 3 of the first 20 games and finished another 3 games with 4 personals. Meanwhile, Bill Self doesn’t play that full-court havoc defensive style. Kansas loves to feed the post, but Landen Lucas and Hunter Mickelson aren’t dominant offensive players. Adding Devin Williams with a starting five that could include Perry Ellis, Wayne Selden, Devauntes Graham and Frank Mason III would put the Jayhawks in the UNC and Maryland neighborhood as far as the best roster on paper. Meanwhile, despite the glut of publicity the “Free Diallo” movement made, the freshman can barely find a role in KU’s rotation. However, when he finds the floor, his tenacity and hustles quickly allows him to find a niche. This versatility and high motor would work perfectly in West Virginia’s system. Brannon Greene would get his shots and help boost West Virginia’s scoring punch.

 

Trade Proposal 3:

 

Arizona receives: Derrick Gordon, G Seton Hall

Seton Hall receives: Dusan Ristic, C Arizona

Arizona has lost two straight Pac 12 games and needs to get right. The Wildcats still have a void of a court-general point guards after T.J. McConnell graduated. The veteran leadership for the Wildcats has been based, instead, in the post with the addition of Ryan Anderson. With Kaleb Tarzewski back from injury, Dusan Ristic is only averaging 18 minutes-per-game, which is on the decline. At 7 foot, he would instantly become the tallest post player for the Pirates. Seton Hall has a full cast of ball-handling sophomores. As a bubble team, Ristic would balance the team and allow a strong run in the Big East tournament. Gordon, meanwhile, is one of the better backcourt defenders in the Big East. His experience will help against remaining Pac-12 point guards like Gary Payton Jr. and Bryce Alford. Gordon, a Massachusetts transfer, is a 24-year-old senior and ready to win now.

 

Deep Sleepers for March

It’s the Gold Glove syndrome.  Once a player is given a gold glove, he is grandfathered in for years to come.

In college basketball, it’s a similar formula for top 25 teams.  Once anointed in the preseason top 25, teams have to bobble the ball to cease receiving votes.

Here are 5 teams that could jump on our radar in March:

  1. Seton Hall

They beat both SEC bubble teams, Georgia and Ole Miss, that they faced.  They shocked Wichita State.  Most recently, the Pirates ransacked Marquette in their building.  This Seton Hall bunch was ranked this time last season, as then-freshman Isaiah Whitehead was making his presence known.  Now their cast of super-sophomores (Carrington, Sanogo, Rodriguez and others) are only getting better.  Add a splash of senior leadership from UMASS transfer, and defensive stopper, Derrick Gordon.  This team is city tough and doesn’t rely on one or two guys to lead in the box score.  If Big East counterparts such as Butler and Providence are consistently ranked in the top 15, it’s time that Seton Hall starts receiving ballots.  The Pirates currently sit atop the standings in the Big East, although four teams are ranked nationally above them in the AP poll.

2. High Point

The Panthers have one of the best players no one knows about.  Forward John Brown is scoring 18 per game, shooting 57% and grabbing 7 rebounds.  Brown is undersized, yet slippery in the post.  His game reminds you of  Kenneth Faried in terms of his high motor.  The Panthers have a 1,000 point scorer at guard in Adam Weary.  Lorenzo Cugini is a guy who can both bang down low but stretch the floor at the 4-spot.  High Point has four losses on the season, none by more than four points.  They almost won a game in Georgia despite Brown being in foul trouble throughout.

3. Valpairaso

The Crusaders are another team without a bad loss and a bad-ass defense.  Valpairaso ranks third in kenpom.com’s defensive ranking nationwide.  And, when you watch the games, you’ll see the strong defense begins with rim-protector Vashil Fernandez.  Alec Peters has been emerging in the last year, averaging 17 and 7 per game.  The 6-9 junior could have a Wally Szczerbiak type of splash on the national scene if opposing defenses sleep on his versatility.

4.  Wichita State

Here’s a not-so-bold-prediction.  Wichita State will win the Missouri Valley and head into the tournament pissed off with their #11 seed.  They’ll end out rolling over a West Virginia or South Carolina.  Teams with full or aggressive ball pressure won’t scare Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker.  The Shockers sit at 7-5 in no small measure because of a November injury to Van Vleet in where the Shockers were competing in holiday tournaments.  They also added Connor Frankamp, the Kansas transfer guard, since Van Vleet’s return.  The Shockers are younger and more inexperienced in the post, but Greg Marshall is finding his rotation inside as he always does.  They did beat Utah this season.  As you know, the Utes have one of the best true offensive post players in the nation with Jacob Poeltl.  A major development for Wichita is that, while playing short-handed, 6-8 freshman from Jersey City Markis McDuffie has been inserted into a regular rotation.  This team will be tournament ready with depth on the wings.  The Shockers are another team that have stopped receiving AP votes.

5.  Hawaii

It’s almost as if this team plays on an island.  They’re 10-2 in the non-conference and no one is talking about them.  The “Rainbow Warriors” are normally the team that gets crushed as their happy to host a holiday tournament that draws real talent.  This year it was a role reversal.  Hawaii dominated Northern Iowa and Auburn.  Hawaii’s only losses include losing by 3 to third-ranked Oklahoma and also losing at Texas Tech.  Hawaii is a team that wants to get into a track meet.  They are undersized but very quick and ready to shoot on the spot.  6-11 power forward Stefan Jankovic is also finally playing up to his talent level in his junior season.  He began his collegiate career at Missouri.  Jankovic is averaging 14 points and 6 boards.

 

Christmas Comes Early

The college basketball schedule for Tuesday, December 22nd treats its fans  with presents and the license to unwrap them.

Here’s what collegebasketballeyetest.com predicts will be inside…

(6) Xavier -8 at Wake Forest
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍🔍🔍🔍 (*Max 5 glasses)
Prediction: Xavier 67, Wake Forest 63
DFS Play:  J.P. Macura

Synopsis:

Xavier better be careful here.  Despite analysts firing off early about the Musketeers being Final 4-caliber, we know this nucleus is recently congealed.  Both teams are excelling with efficient guard play.  Wake Forest currently sits atop the ACC standings after wins against Indiana, UCLA and Arkansas.  The bubble watch is high here because a win against Xavier would be the knockout punch that solidifies Wake’s non-conference excellence.  They’re 8-2.  The Demon Deacons have kept every game close.  The largest margin in its 10 games was a 10 point win versus UNC Greensboro.  I am choosing J.P. Macura as my daily fantasy play.  I’m banking on a high scoring affair with fast perimeter play and Macura sneaking behind the line for a couple of threes.

(11) Iowa State at (22) Cincinatti (-4)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍
Prediction: Cincinatti 81, Iowa State 65
DFS Play: Troy Caupain

Synopsis:

Play with fire, you get burned.  Iowa State finally suffered a loss after one of its custom slow starts.  UNI beat them on a neutral floor.  And, with all due respect to Northern Iowa, the Bearcats are much more athletic and much deeper.  The UNI loss just scratched the surface on how Naz Long’s loss will affect this Iowa State team.  As flawless as Monte Morris has been at running the point, his counterpart tonight in Troy Caupain has quietly been one of the nation’s best.  I think Morris suffers from carrying a heavy burden tonight while Caupain flourishes while finding his gym rats in transition.  I think this is finally the game where Iowa State gets off to a slow start (See Illinois, Iowa, UNI) and it ends up becoming an embarrassment.  Watch closely for a ferocious battle between Octavius Ellis and Jamaal McKay down low—those are two dudes you’d want to pick first for size in a street game.  This game is very low as far as bubble watch is concerned, because each is a 2-6 seed caliber tournament team regardless of outcome.

Vanderbilt at (14) Purdue (-6)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍🔍🔍
Prediction: Purdue 71, Vanderbilt 60
DFS Play: Isaac Haas

Synopsis:

I’ll wait until I see the final score before I say “I feel sorry” for Vanderbilt going without center Luke Kornett.  Purdue has two giants in the middle.  I am not talking about Odell Beckham Junior giants, but more like Andre the Giant giants.  Hammons and Haas should be pretty angry after a loss to Xavier.  I think Vanderbilt was exposed for some offensive lack of creativity in its Dayton loss and can’t help but predict a similar out-toughness against a very strong Purdue team.  There’s a moderate bubble alert on for Vanderbilt, because, on the heels of that Dayton loss, they have some making up to do.  Aside from Kentucky and Texas A&M, the SEC won’t have many teams to topple in order to punch a ticket to March Madness.  Even LSU has proven in this non-conference that it could be a bubble team.  Vanderbilt could boost its stock greatly with a surprise win tonight.

California at (5) Virginia (-15)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍🔍🔍🔍
Prediction:  UVA 58, Cal 54
DFS Play:  Ivan Rabb

Synopsis:

This game is an interesting clash of conflicting character.  Virginia has the old-man game.  They’ll lock you down on defense with solid team principles and the fact that they’ve played together for 2, 3, 4 years collectively.  California is the McDonald’s All-American squad.  They have a kid like Ivan Rabb who nets comparisons to Kevin Garnett, but haven’t yet found a true identity on either side of the floor.  However, they have the talent to shock Virginia in this spot.  And, it would stamp their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.  We know the way national analysts salivated over Cal’s talent in the preseason, ranking them in the top 25, and the NCAA wouldn’t let that hype train circumvent mid-March.  Back to basketball.  Virginia does not have a true “rim protector,” so if freshmen Rabb and Jaylen Brown attack the way they’re capable of, this could get interesting.  Expect a low scoring game regardless.  That’s what Virginia does.  Especially at home.

(2) Kansas at San Diego State (-7)
Bubble Magnifier Metric: 🔍
Prediction:  Kansas 72, San Diego State 60
DFS Play:  Jamari Traylor

Synopsis:

Kansas has revenge on its mind.  San Diego State came into Allen Fieldhouse two seasons ago and beat the Jayhawks.  Now, with some wacky things going on with the Aztecs, elder statesmen like Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor and Frank Mason III can return the favor.  Wayne Selden Jr., who also played in that January 2014 upset, has been playing out of his mind this year.  He has become the small forward that NBA scouts expected coming to Lawrence as a high school All-American.  San Diego State’s expected offensive leaders this season, Winston Shepherd and Malik Pope, just played a combined 30 minutes in a shocking loss to Grand Canyon in the Aztecs last game.  The Bubble-barometer is at a level one for this game.  That’s because the Aztecs haven’t played like a tournament team and I doubt this will be the game that changes that.  Neophytes Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo have been getting P.T. in a process coach Bill Self hopes is another Final 4 run.  But expect the Jamari Traylors of the roster, the guys who can expect and benefit from the San Diego State post double-team, to run wild.

 

Suspect Spreads Saturday 2015-16 Record

It’s an uphill battle for College Basketball Eye Test to match its win percentage of 60% last season.  Look for our picks against the spread before Saturday’s action with the hashtag #SuspectSpreadsSaturday.

We went 5-0 at last attempt to improve to 9-12 overall.  Here’s an archive of the picks, starting with the most recent.

 

2-3, 4-12 Overall

2-4, 2-9 Overall

0-5 ROUGH START!

https://twitter.com/CBBEyeTest/status/667963045390458881

Hilton Magic Continues

The Cyclones saw a storm come through its arena Thursday night.

Jarrod Uthoff, the one-time Wisconsin Badger, had his national coming out party as he looked like Dirk Nowitzi in the first half.

Iowa led 49-35 at halftime and maintained as large as a 20 point lead.

The Cyclones would, however, generate the final storm.

College Basketball Eye Test reminded folks at halftime about this Iowa State team’s historic (tied for largest ever) comeback against Oklahoma last season at the Hilton Coliseum.

Uthoff scored just two points in the second half after a 30 point explosion in the first.  Iowa still shot 52% from the field, but Uthoff missed six shots.

A last-moment bucket by Monte Morris capped off an 83-82 comeback victory for Iowa State.  It was a feather-in-the-cap effort that proved Steve Prohm’s Cyclones squad can defend as well as “just outscore” its opponent.

 

Dayton Did Not “Upset” Vanderbilt

Don’t call it a comeback.

Dayton has been here for years.

Don’t call it an upset, either.

Dayton’s one blemish on its record this season is a 29 point loss to Xavier.  Let’s not overreact about that loss and now call Dayton’s win against Vanderbilt “an upset.”

Xavier is currently the 12th ranked team by the Associated Press and Ken Pomeroy’s 11th ranked squad.  Loss forgiven.

Tonight Dayton completely muted the projected 11th overall pick in next Spring’s NBA Draft, Damian Jones.  Dayton’s guards flew down into the paint to grab defensive rebounds late to seal victory.

Dayton rallied from down 16 to beat Vandy in their house.

Forward Kendall Pollard knocked down a late possession 3 pointer, a rare shot for him, to land the knockout punch.  Pollard scored 21 points in addition to epitomizing Dayton’s grit with that shot.

Freshman center Steve McElvene also prospered with the absence of Vanderbilt big man, Luke Kornett.  He registered 10 and 9.

Devin Oliver, who played on Dayton’s 2014 Elite 8 team, enjoyed the victory while overseas.  He is now playing professionally in Israel, according to his Twitter bio.

The prognosticators are also prognosticating.  People “in the know” know that this could be a bubble-avoiding win for more Archie Madness.

Eye Test Tuesday: A Buffet of Tourney-Worthy Teams

A bevy of basketball’s finest teams appear on ESPN Networks tonight.  Not only are top 10 ranked squads appearing in national primetime, but also teams that will straddle that top 25 line throughout this season.  Those teams—Miami, UCONN and Michigan—may prove to be the most dangerous as their mixture of youth and newcomers congeal early Spring.

Here’s your timetable:

6 p.m. Virginia vs. West Virginia on ESPN
6 p.m. Colgate at Syracuse on ESPNU
6 p.m. Florida at Miami on ESPN2
8 p.m. UCONN at Maryland on ESPN
8 p.m.  Stony Brook at Notre Dame on ESPNU
8 p.m. Michigan at SMU on ESPN2

Vote for the best team, according to YOUR eye test:

Michigan State Basketball Reacts to Football Championship

As the Twitterverse was buzzing over LJ Scott’s second effort, so were the Michigan State basketball players.

Of course, head basketball coach Tom Izzo was in the house:

Freshman Deyonta Davis was quick to tweet after the Spartans’ Big 10 Championship:

https://twitter.com/DeyontaDavis_/status/673363531388076032

 

Junior Guard Alvin Ellis also went with the go-to Dave Chappelle GIF to illustrate his thoughts to non-Sparty fans:

Ellis retweeted that, plus a dip from Sparty himself:

 

 

 

“Cheick Please” Is Coined

Cheick Diallo was as advertised.  Against Loyolla in his collegiate premiere, Diallo seemed to play angry while still under control.  He played often with the 1’s in the first half.  His first bucket as  Jayhawk came on a dunk assisted by Wayne Seldon in the second half.

Matty D Media 1

While Cheick dominated the second half, suspended player Brannon Greene had the look of, “check please.”  This photo is not a troll-job, or a random “gotcha” moment.   This is how Brannon Greene’s posture looked the majority of the second half.  Click here to read the background, courtesy The Kansas City Star.

Screen Shot 2015-12-02 at 1.35.54 AM

Cheick did it.  He put on a show.  He played with fellow freshmen Carlton Bragg Jr. and Lagerald Vick as if he were the elder-statesman.  Tuesday night he motioned with one finger to the sky, like “throw that up to me.”  His teammates clearly responded by continuously looking for him in the post.  Cheick even put his palm to the back of his neck while taking off from just below the free throw line.  Enjoy.
Screen Shot 2015-12-02 at 1.40.16 AM

Kris Dunn Dwayne Wade Comparison

This year, Dunn is primed to be a repeat of Dwayne Wade’s Big East emergence for the Marquette Golden Eagles.  That year, Wade led his 3-seeded Marquette group to the Final 4 with a win over #1 Kentucky.

Dunn is labeled a point guard by fans who watch college basketball through the lens of predicting what a guy will resemble in the NBA.  Those who actually watch the games know that Dunn is no point guard.  He rebounds, attacks the rim, dribbles with a giddy-up that can freeze a defender, shoots that fall-away, wears the number 3, and rips the ball from unsuspecting dribblers from a help defender position.  At Marquette, Wade was listed at 6-5.  Dunn is 6-4.

Dwayne Wade was the 5th overall pick for the Miami Heat in the 2003 NBA Draft.  ESPN’s Chad Ford has Kris Dunn projected as the number 8 pick next Spring.

Chris Paul followed advice to go and see Kris Dunn in person during the DirecTV Wooden Legacy Championship game.  During the ESPN telecast, Paul remarked on Dunn’s aggressive nature for scoring.  Basketball fans who follow @CBBEyeTest on Twitter say Kris Dunn is the frontrunner for Player of the Year.