Tag Archives: bubble teams

A Friday Night Features Consequential Non-conference Matchups in College Basketball’s New Era

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UCLA and Arizona showed a loyalty to the spirit of college basketball that not even the Pac-12 or Big10 conference could. Those two traditional college basketball powers prioritized a non-conference matchup with each other. This continues a great tradition, despite conference realignment that has shredded at the fabric of the sport.

As for the game between Arizona and UCLA, it delivered. And it was one of many consequential matchups between teams 1) looking to build a tournament resume OR 2) get a 1 or 2 seed.

Arizona outlasts UCLA in star-studded early season matchup

As for the game between Arizona and UCLA, it delivered. The Wildcats struck first with a flurry of transition buckets, but UCLA countered with a poised half-court approach that slowed the tempo and kept things tight. The difference came late, when Arizona leaned on its length and timely shot-making to pull away. It was the type of November game that felt like March—two proud programs trading punches and revealing both strengths and flaws that will matter months from now.

Montiejas Krivas was the x-factor in this one, as there were no answers for the 7-2 Lithuanian during some important stretches.

Gonzaga gets tough against an aspiring upset-minded Arizona State

Graham Ike showed an ability to take a punch and answer a serious shot from an upset-minded underdog. Arizona State has notoriously been a volatile bunch under the leadership of head coach Bobby Hurley. The Sun Devils can be hot as hell. They can also scorch themselves with foolish play. On this Friday night, Arizona State came out swinging and put up a nice run to start the game. Ike, a transfer who took his talents from Wyoming to Spoke two years ago, put up 20 points looking like an NBA prospect down low doing it.

A still frame from Graham Ike’s dunk over the Arizona State frontline, courtesy Gonzaga Twitter.

Duke Overwhelms Indiana State with High-Powered Offensive Burst

Duke wasted no time imposing its talent on Indiana State. The Blue Devils came out flying, pushing tempo and getting early paint touches that broke the game open before halftime. What stood out most was how crisp the ball movement was — extra passes, kick-outs, and decisive drives that left the Sycamores scrambling. Duke’s depth also showed, as fresh legs kept the pressure high and the score climbing. By the time the second half settled in, Duke had full command and never looked back, showcasing the type of offensive ceiling that can dominate on any given night.

Michigan grinds out a tough win over TCU in a possession-by-possession battle

Michigan and TCU played one of the most competitive games of the night, a true rock fight that demanded execution on every trip. Both teams traded short runs but neither could fully separate, making the final minutes a test of poise. Michigan’s physicality on the glass and timely rim protection proved to be the difference, as the Wolverines finally strung together a few stops to clinch it. TCU showed resilience throughout, but Michigan’s ability to close late — especially against a veteran-heavy Horned Frogs lineup — was the defining moment of a well-earned road victory.

Other notable results shape the night across college basketball

Plenty of action beyond the headliners shifted the early-season landscape. Georgia quietly improved to 4-0 by taking down in-state rival Georgia Tech, a win that reinforces the Bulldogs’ steady climb under their current regime. Meanwhile, UCF pulled off one of the night’s biggest surprises by upsetting Texas A&M, a result that could age very well if the Knights continue trending upward. Taken together, these outcomes added another layer to what’s becoming a highly competitive and unpredictable start to the college basketball season.

Bad Bubble Teams Make Weak Argument for Bracket Expansion

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The national conversation about whether the Men’s College Basketball Tournament should expand beyond 68 teams is getting weak support from the teams around the bubble. For example, Rick Pitino just publicly blasted his team for being un-athletic and “the most un-enjoyable experience I’ve had as a coach.” As we enter March, Pitino’s team is the poster child for making the tournament as the bubble team.

Here are some other teams not helping their cause when it comes to expanding the tournament, or expanding their own 2023-24 season.

Last 4 in: Seton Hall, Wake Forest, TCU, Virginia
Last 4 out: Villanova, New Mexico, Utah, Mississippi State
Way out: St. John’s, Memphis, Colorado St., Utah

Alarms Sounding for Snoozing Wake Forest and its tournament chances

Wake Forest is the poster child for the type of bubble team the 2023-2024 Men’s College Basketball season is producing. They’re hit-or-miss. Right after its dramatic win against Duke where court-storming became the story, the headline for Demon Deacon fans was their qualification for the tournament. Surely, a win over top ranked Duke would put them over the edge. However, that February 24th victory was followed by three really bad back-to-back losses to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech respectively. Even winning two of those three games would have likely kept a 20-10 team on the inside looking out. Instead, now they face a tough Clemson team in a must-win regular season finale where 19-12 still might make the cut.

Note: On March 9th, Damari Monsanto popped up again on injury reports after returning in February from a serious knee injury. Click here for a full list of player injuries you should monitor before filling out your March Madness bracket!

Wake will ultimately be judged by their conference tournament performance. And that list goes on…

Texas A&M Men’s Basketball Season on the Brink of Extinction

Like most bubble teams across America, Texas A&M can’t get out of its own way. Whenever they score what seams like a tournament-berth-ensuring win, they follow it up with a head-scratching loss. And this is the trend nationwide. The Aggies beat 6th ranked Tennessee on February 10th and were on the inside of the bubble looking out. Then, they lost at Vanderbilt, giving the Commodores only their second win on the season. The Aggies then spiraled and are currently in a 5 game losing streak. By themselves, each of those losses can be justified, except perhaps for the Vandy one. However, now the Aggies aren’t even in the bubble conversation.

Photo Courtesy Texas A&M: Power forward Henry Coleman III goes up for a contested layup.

The Big East is a Hot Mess of Bubble Teams

After UCONN, Marquette, and Creighton, the Big East is a hot mess of bubble teams. You could argue that all of these teams had their opportunities and squandered them. There is seemingly a wide gap between the upper crust of this conference and the middle tier. Villanova can’t break through a glass ceiling in its own conference. The Wildcats got beat by 22 points to UCONN to finish out February. They got beat by Marquette. The Wildcats won against Creighton, but struggled within its own state in out-of-conference resume opportunities. Villanova’s non-conference resume is riddled with losses against Pennsylvania, Drexel, and St. Joseph’s. Those losses don’t bode well for Villanova’s tournament hopes. Yet, still the Wildcats are always listed on the bubble graphics.

One look at Villanova or St. John’s on the court shows a tier below tournament quality.

Conversely, Seton Hall is a certified tournament team in my opinion. By the way, this is author Matt DeSarle, just your average college basketball fanatic who also owns a small business that does media production.

The Seton Hall Pirates are 18-10 on the season, but context matters. The two losses were while star wing Kadary Richmond was out with an undisclosed injury.

Track important injuries leading into March Madness here, whether disclosed or undisclosed!

The Pirates lost to Creighton in trouble overtime while Richmond was out. They also lost to Providence in a consecutive game there. Having split with Creighton and struggled against the upper crust of UCONN and Marquette, Seton Halls is looking like the most quintessential 10 or 11 seed in the tournament.

Mediocre Mountain West Moves Mob Towards March

If you follow CBBEyeTest on Twitter, you know that I don’t believe in the Mountain West. Are you already thinking about San Diego State? Sure, they were the runner up to the national championship last year. However, all the other Mountain West teams haven’t won ONE tournament game in the past several years. The Aztecs seem to carry a subgroup of mediocre teams and their NET rankings, puling their conference peers NET closer to the teens.

Update: Boise State beat San Diego State on their floor on Friday night, March 8th. That will continue to solidify the gravitational pull for this conference around the Net 18-40th range with multiple Mountain West planets spinning in that orbit.

But look at the sub-500 records among many of these teams in the middle of the pack. New Mexico and Colorado State both have losing records in Quad 1 games. The also lose Quad 2 games. Teams shouldn’t be rewarded for just playing well at home, dominating Quad 3/4 games, and occasionally beating San Diego State. I’m looking at you, Colorado State, Boise State, and Utah State! Nevada is actually the lone wolf in this conference that I’m starting to believe in. They just went into Colorado State and won without their leading scorer, Kenan Blackshear.

Injuries to Monitor this March Madness [2024]

Championship Week Sets Table for College Basketball’s Bubble Bursting Weekend

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The week before Selection Sunday gives clarity on college basketball’s rising and falling stock.

BY MATTY D.

On the morning of Thursday, March 9th CBS Network bracketologist Jerry Palm had Michigan in and Rutgers out. Mississippi State was also on the edge of the March Madness bubble. And as quickly as games could tip on that day, the tournament landscape shifted again.

Michigan lost to Rutgers by 12 points, effectively losing its place on the bubble.

Conversely, Rutgers raised its stock on the right side of the bubble.

In the SEC, Mississippi State effectively punched its ticket with a close win against the Florida Gators. The Bulldogs will now play Alabama where it’s academic who wins. Both teams should be tournament teams.

Oklahoma State is another bubble team that couldn’t pop through its own glass ceiling. The Cowboys lost in the 7 vs. 2 matchup against Texas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. With Joe Lunardi listing them as one of the last four in, this loss almost certainly ensures they’ll show up as an 11 seed in a play-in game (if at all).

The ACC has a similar dynamic on its hand. None of its “bubble teams” are seizing the moment. Clemson, UNC, and Pittsburgh are all showing their warts within the final chapter of conference play.

Despite the typo, Joe Lunardi’s bubble was full of Big 10 and ACC teams.

Mid-major teams take care of business as bubble teams drop the ball

The team that is remiss from the bubble conversation on both Palm and ESPN bracketologist’s Joe Lunardi’s projection mid-way through Championship Week was Florida Atlantic. The Owls were a mainstay in the Top 25 before getting into the meat of its own difficult Conference USA schedule. They avoided this bubble conversation because they simply took care of business. Having only 3 losses on the season, FAU had slowly risen out of bubble talks and into the 9 or 10 seed on projections. Having played the likes of a talented North Texas and UAB squad, FAU’s regular conference season was not without its NET-boosting opportunities. The few losses that the Owls had suffered were respectable. The Owls were also able to upset the aforementioend Florida Gators in one of its few Quad 1 opportunities. FAU was still battling for its conference title heading into the weekend, but looking solid for an at-large bid regardless. Another mid-major team that took care of its business was College of Charleston. The Cougars went into Championship Week also as a 3 loss team. Joe Lunardi had them out of the tournament if it weren’t for a conference championship. But the Cougars took care of business. They beat a respectable challenger in Towson during the quarterfinals then capped off the crown with a win against UNCW. Teams like College of Charleston and FAU should be seen for what they are. They are hardened by a conference schedule where they were the hunted. And they survived. These teams should be much more fear than a fledurling Michigan or Wisconsin “bubble team” from the Big 10. (Wisconsin lost to a pathetic Ohio State team in the conference tournament).

Johnell Davis photo courtesy Mauricio Paiz/ fausports.com

Mountain West climbs towards five tournament teams as Selection Sunday nears

Utah State is considered a bubble team, although Aggies fans shouldn’t worry. Very rarely does a team within the top 25-30 of the NET not make the NCAA Tournament. This year, their losses are a lot more justified with the Mountain West ranking higher than the ACC in a lot of categories. Conference mate Boise State is also technically on the bubble line, although the Broncos are in a similar power position. Utah State could be the fifth tournament team from the Mountain West, joining Boise State, San Diego State (regular season champions), New Mexico and Nevada or San Jose State.

Other news and notes from NCAAB’s Championship Week:

Baylor is officially in damage control mode after getting swept this season by the Iowa State Cyclones of all teams. ISU beat the Bears three times total this season, including a conference tournament win Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.

Marquette messed around and was losing to 8 seeded St. John’s at halftime before conference player of the year Tyler Kylek and the Golden Eagles came back to win.

UCLA got great contributions from Amari Bailey and Adem Bona in their PAC-12 Tournament win against a fiesty Colorado Buffs program. Bailey and Bona are going to be crucially important as the Bruins just lost Jaylen Clark, likely out for the season.

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