The national conversation about whether the Men’s College Basketball Tournament should expand beyond 68 teams is getting weak support from the teams around the bubble. For example, Rick Pitino just publicly blasted his team for being un-athletic and “the most un-enjoyable experience I’ve had as a coach.” As we enter March, Pitino’s team is the poster child for making the tournament as the bubble team.
Here are some other teams not helping their cause when it comes to expanding the tournament, or expanding their own 2023-24 season.
Last 4 in: Seton Hall, Wake Forest, TCU, Virginia
Last 4 out: Villanova, New Mexico, Utah, Mississippi State
Way out: St. John’s, Memphis, Colorado St., Utah
Alarms Sounding for Snoozing Wake Forest and its tournament chances
Wake Forest is the poster child for the type of bubble team the 2023-2024 Men’s College Basketball season is producing. They’re hit-or-miss. Right after its dramatic win against Duke where court-storming became the story, the headline for Demon Deacon fans was their qualification for the tournament. Surely, a win over top ranked Duke would put them over the edge. However, that February 24th victory was followed by three really bad back-to-back losses to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech respectively. Even winning two of those three games would have likely kept a 20-10 team on the inside looking out. Instead, now they face a tough Clemson team in a must-win regular season finale where 19-12 still might make the cut.
Note: On March 9th, Damari Monsanto popped up again on injury reports after returning in February from a serious knee injury. Click here for a full list of player injuries you should monitor before filling out your March Madness bracket!
Wake will ultimately be judged by their conference tournament performance. And that list goes on…
Texas A&M Men’s Basketball Season on the Brink of Extinction
Like most bubble teams across America, Texas A&M can’t get out of its own way. Whenever they score what seams like a tournament-berth-ensuring win, they follow it up with a head-scratching loss. And this is the trend nationwide. The Aggies beat 6th ranked Tennessee on February 10th and were on the inside of the bubble looking out. Then, they lost at Vanderbilt, giving the Commodores only their second win on the season. The Aggies then spiraled and are currently in a 5 game losing streak. By themselves, each of those losses can be justified, except perhaps for the Vandy one. However, now the Aggies aren’t even in the bubble conversation.
The Big East is a Hot Mess of Bubble Teams
After UCONN, Marquette, and Creighton, the Big East is a hot mess of bubble teams. You could argue that all of these teams had their opportunities and squandered them. There is seemingly a wide gap between the upper crust of this conference and the middle tier. Villanova can’t break through a glass ceiling in its own conference. The Wildcats got beat by 22 points to UCONN to finish out February. They got beat by Marquette. The Wildcats won against Creighton, but struggled within its own state in out-of-conference resume opportunities. Villanova’s non-conference resume is riddled with losses against Pennsylvania, Drexel, and St. Joseph’s. Those losses don’t bode well for Villanova’s tournament hopes. Yet, still the Wildcats are always listed on the bubble graphics.
Conversely, Seton Hall is a certified tournament team in my opinion. By the way, this is author Matt DeSarle, just your average college basketball fanatic who also owns a small business that does media production.
The Seton Hall Pirates are 18-10 on the season, but context matters. The two losses were while star wing Kadary Richmond was out with an undisclosed injury.
Track important injuries leading into March Madness here, whether disclosed or undisclosed!
The Pirates lost to Creighton in trouble overtime while Richmond was out. They also lost to Providence in a consecutive game there. Having split with Creighton and struggled against the upper crust of UCONN and Marquette, Seton Halls is looking like the most quintessential 10 or 11 seed in the tournament.
Mediocre Mountain West Moves Mob Towards March
If you follow CBBEyeTest on Twitter, you know that I don’t believe in the Mountain West. Are you already thinking about San Diego State? Sure, they were the runner up to the national championship last year. However, all the other Mountain West teams haven’t won ONE tournament game in the past several years. The Aztecs seem to carry a subgroup of mediocre teams and their NET rankings, puling their conference peers NET closer to the teens.
Update: Boise State beat San Diego State on their floor on Friday night, March 8th. That will continue to solidify the gravitational pull for this conference around the Net 18-40th range with multiple Mountain West planets spinning in that orbit.
But look at the sub-500 records among many of these teams in the middle of the pack. New Mexico and Colorado State both have losing records in Quad 1 games. The also lose Quad 2 games. Teams shouldn’t be rewarded for just playing well at home, dominating Quad 3/4 games, and occasionally beating San Diego State. I’m looking at you, Colorado State, Boise State, and Utah State! Nevada is actually the lone wolf in this conference that I’m starting to believe in. They just went into Colorado State and won without their leading scorer, Kenan Blackshear.
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