The term “journey man” is now a tangible buzz phrase in college basketball. How ironic that in an atmosphere where players are presumably recruited starting in 6th and 7th grade, that those players are leaving programs after things don’t work out perfectly.
Or, in one of many shades of the college basketball transfers, many players are joining different teams after graduating. Players like Jon Hortford of Florida can play immediately if pursuing a graduate program. Hortford spent four years at Michigan, but only used up 3 years of eligibility playing. Now he is a gator boy like his older brother, Al Hortford.
To me, players like this look like people who leave the casino contemplating where to spin their final quarter. One final play on the big wheel. It has to be good though, I only have one more to play.
This blog post is dedicated to those guys. These are the college basketball player who I’ve seen perform in the past and am excited to see in their new role.
This first is Antoine Mason. Yes, I am partial because his father, Anthony Mason, was part of the New York Knicks team I grew up rooting for. But junior’s got serious game. After Doug McDermott, Antoine Mason led the nation in scoring last year for Niagara. Now he rejoins another guy who is reborn: coach Bruce Pearl. I say Mason and the Auburn Tigers finish 5th in the SEC (Kentucky, Florida, LSU, Arkansas) and entertain an invite as a bubble team.
Remember the skinny white kid who hit threes as part of Kentucky’s 2012 championship run with Anthony Davis? Yeah, his name is Kyle Wiltjer and he’s gained lots of muscle and now plays for Gonzaga.
Unlike the boys mentioned previously, Wiltjer had to wait his turn, as he admittedly left Kentucky to find a roster spot with more playing time. He joins a very talented team with Gary Bell Jr., Przemek Karnowski and Kevin Pangos. If Wiltjer can play inside-and-out, that will pose nightmarish matchups for opposing teams. As Karnowski showed in a bruising performance against Memphis last year, his size can suck many bodies into the paint. I want to see Pangos and Wiltjer spread the floor for the pure enjoyment of watching them shoot lights out.
In my research for this article, I laughed to find a full weblink dedicated to where college basketball transfers have landed. It lists them all. Click here to check it out on espn.com. I won’t get into junior college transfers, or “JuCo” guys, here because I have not studied up on my community college circuit (no shame in my game there).
Rounding out my top transfers is Kevin Ware of Georgia State and Justin Martin of SMU. Ware only averaged 1.7 points for Louisville, but showed flashes of unstoppable quickness before breaking his leg in an unforgettable broadcast moment. Now Ware becomes part of a team that will continue being the sexiest pick for a mid-major program to do damage in March. Martin is a heady combo guard that does all the things Xavier guys seem to do. He handles the ball with strength and rebounds well for a guard. Martin can be the type of glue-guy an SMU team could use, given its appeal “on paper.” SMU thinks it got snubbed from the tournament last year, but it really didn’t capitalize on its out-of-conference opportunities. I am intrigued to see what Martin can bring to this team in terms of stability.
Welcome to my second season as an NCAA basketball blogger. Last year, in my first-ever article, I listed UCONN in my “starting five,” a list of five underdog teams I believe have a chance to win a championship. How is that for a rookie perfomance?
I create my “starting five” of underdog teams with a simple method. I pretend I have $100 to spend in Vegas. In this hypothetical, I am trying to win at least $1,000 bucks. I pick five teams that could win me that $1,000. Betting $17 on UCONN at 60-to-1 odds would have earned you $1,020 dollars. If you won on my advice last season, you’re welcome.
Here’s my “starting five” for 2014-15, according to odds published by the vegasinsiders.com.
St. John’s at 200-to-1 is attractive. The Red Storm lost Jakarr Sampson to the NBA, but what good team doesn’t? I personally believe coach Steve Lavin is at a turning point with this program. I know he is a great coach, seemingly a better motivator. Lavin has reached the point in where the team is full of “his guys.” Sadly, the Big East is watered down from its glory days of Syracuse and so on. This presents an opportunity for St. John’s to battle with Villanova and Georgetown for the top spot. Don’t sleep on Providence (hello: conference champions) and Creighton. However, I think St. John’s has a great chance of making the NCAA tournament with momentum, even if I’m wrong and they finished third place in this league.
Speaking of a coach who has a full tenure as “having his guys” in the program, Virginia is a no-brainer risk at 35-to-1. Coach Tony Bennett brings back talented and now-experience swingmen Malcom Brogdon and Anthony Gill. The Cavaliers have asserted themselves as one of the nation’s best defensive programs. There’s also another player I’ll tell you more about later.
LSU is another huge sleeper of mine. The Tigers sit at 220-to-1 odds currently. They have two sophomore stud forwards and add the orchestration of Bruce Hornsby’s son Keith at point guard. Yes, the son of the Grammy-Award winner will be eligible to play this season after transferring from UNC Asheville.
My fourth team makes me nervous, but that pales in comparison to what the club experienced this offseason. A player on the team was hit by a car driven by his teammate. You can research on your own the conditions surrounding that incident. However, in this case, I think what doesn’t kill IU will make them stronger. Yogi Ferrell and the Indiana Hoosiers top my preseason value picks. Let the record show, this team is listed as a 220-to-1 underdog to win the title. I think this team is one of a few that is not expected to win its conference, but can in fact win a national championship. The reason is that Indiana has a point guard that is a true floor general in Yogi Ferrell. My UCONN pick was based on point guard Shabazz Napier. If there will be a repeat storyline in 2015, with a winning point guard taking complete command of a team, I can envision it in Ferrell. The report embedded below is Ferrell’s reaction to the off-the-court incidents, as filed by Indianapolis WRTV-6 ( ABC) sports anchor Dave Furst.
My fifth and final underdog value pick is Utah. Coach Larry Krystkowiak is more likely to tweet a photo of a snowman than his own basketball team, but don’t send the Utes “packing” just yet.
Utah is listed at 85-to-1 now. Las Vegas seems to be catching on, as I saw them 200-to-1 a few weeks ago. Bleacher Report wrote an entire article about how Delon Wright, the brother of NBA player Dorrell Wright, is the best prospect you’ve never heard off. Put $11 fictitious dollars on Utah, $5 apiece on LSU, Indiana, St. John’s, and $28 on Virginia. That leaves me with $46 and plenty of room left to write about my counter to the AP’s top 5 players.
Once again, I am again shaking my head at the Associated Press preseason top 5 All-Americans. The only guy who deserves to be there is Montrezl Harrell. Have you ever wished for Gold Glove Awards and season MVP’s to be handed out *after* championship are decided. In many leagues, like the MLB, that is not the case. Apparently, in the NCAA preseason top 5 selection, the reverse logic is at play. Whichever player has performed well in postseason is a shoe-in for the preseason 2014-15 projection. Frank Kaminsky, Fred Van Vleet, and Marcus Paige all made the list. Sure, they had fine seasons and performed in the tournament. However, I feel the selection is more a reflection that these guys playing for teams with huge expectations for March 2015. The Associated Press has to assign a player to carry those flags.
To replace Paige and Van Vleet, I am choosing Ferrell and London Perrantes. Sure, the hardcore NCAA fans could note that my Perrantes pick is a hypocritical stance, considering my previous argument. His Virginia squad surged last season. However, my argument is that his ceiling is much higher than Van Vleet and Paige’s (when it comes to room for growth). I think Paige and Van Vleet are terrific. Both will play in the NBA. Van Vleet is the best chance at a future Jason Kidd the NBA will have. Both players were squarely on the radar in 2013-14. However, Perrantes himself only scratched the surface last season as a freshman. He played with the confidence of a baller whose team has held court all afternoon and has never had to call “next.” He plays point at Virginia, but I am listing him in my top 5 at shooting guard because of his range and ability to play away from the ball.
I look forward to telling you about my front court selections. Treveon Graham of VCU has waited for his opportunity. He averaged 7 points as as freshman, then became a consistent scorer for the Rams with an average of 15 points the past two seasons. Now it is unquestionably his team. Juvonte Reddic is gone, which will help Graham’s cause from the standpoint that he is absolutely the late-game option. Graham scored the game-winning basket a couple times for VCU last season, and I expect more of the same this year. Graham is a physical, big bodied, swingman who reminds me of Jason Richardson of the Golden State Warriors fame. He is not as freakishly athletic, but will probably end up with a better jump shot in the end.
My second forward is Jarell Martin of LSU. On a team where J.J. O’Brien and Jordan Mickey had high expectations, Martin was able to play his third-ever season of basketball and grow into his ability. See that snapshot below on the LSU season highlight? Yeah, that’s number 12, Mr. Martin throwing one down in transition. As big men, he and Mickey love getting out in transition. Martin wears number 1 headed into this season and has dropped numbers when it comes to his playing weight as well.
Martin and LSU are one of three teams I’m pointing to for a possible and serious Cinderella sleeper run.
Rounding out my top 5 player board that consists of Martin, Graham, Perenthes and Ferrell, I am going with a guy who is unseen in plain sight. Kaleb Tarczewski should be talked about the way Tyler Hansborough was in the offseason leading to his 2009 UNC Championship. This guy is an absolute beast. To see that a freshman made the AP list over him may be an indictment on the Arizona offense. It’s going to be time to feed the post and get Tarczewski his touches. Give collegebasketballeyetest.com your own personal touch. Follow the blog with wordpress.com or on Facebook and Twitter.
I lost my shirt in Vegas. Well, not exactly, but I certainly have had better years (handicapping) here. Wichita State killed me. I have been drinking the Shocker Kool Aid since 2012, so I have to give Kentucky a lot of credit here. Andrew Harrison, Willie Cauley-Stein and Julius Randle stepped up. The “young, inexperienced team” also beat the Shockers at the free throw line. I counted six free throws that the Shockers missed, including a pair of empty trips in the second half. It was an uncharacteristic loss for the Shockers. This sets up a fantastic sweet sixteen matchup between Blue Grass rivals Louisville and UK. Like Michigan State versus Virginia on the other side of the bracket, I feel the winner of Kentucky vs. Louisville will play in the national championship game. Those four teams are just playing at a higher level right now. (PS- I wrote on November 8th how the SEC is the best conference in America. SEC is 6-0 in the NCAA tournament).
Even in their wins, I feel Arizona and Florida have shown subtle signs of being in that second tier of remaining teams. For Florida, I think Casey Hill at backup point guard could be exploited under pressure, as well as an extremely muscular yet not super-tall front line. In the SEC Championship game, Kentucky killed Florida on the boards when its entire front-line attacked the glass. I can envision Michigan State, Virginia, or UK again doing the same. For Arizona, I feel its Weber State and Gonzaga path has been the easiest road to the Sweet Sixteen so far. Freshman Aaron Gordon is showing why he is a lottery pick. However, I feel there will come a point where the injury of Brandon Ashley will catch up to them. A substitute so far has been for guard Gabe York to play more minutes. I think that move to a smaller lineup will eventually not work out.
Speaking of size, the two teams I just put $5 to win it all remains Baylor and Tennessee. “You can’t teach size.” Tennessee blasted an upstart Mercer team because of its bigs – Mayben and Stokes. For Baylor, not only do they have Jefferson and Austin, but Rico Gathers is playing really well thus far in the tournament. I think he has a future in the NFL, literally. I made those football comparisons with Jordair Jett, but this is one that I actually mean when you look at the way Gathers rebounds the ball. If you look at the above picture, I jumped all over the 75-to-1 odds for Baylor to win it all. I did a double-take when I saw that longshot exists at Caesar’s Palace. At the MGM Grand, Baylor was 30-to-1. At my “hometown” resort South Point Casino, the Baylor Bears remain 15-to-1. It’s surprising yet comical how the speculation continues to vary. I doubled-down on my Michigan State pick as well. I have believed they were the odds on favorite from the beginning. (Sadly, I wished I had re-read my own blog, where I wrote on November 8th how Wichita State, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Indiana and Oregon are my top 5 teams to take step backwards in 2013-14. Today, I also hedged that bet slightly with Virginia at 11-to-1. Again, I feel the winner of Michigan State vs. Virginia will play the winner of Kentucky vs. Louisville in the championship game. I also love the way Anthony Gill is playing for Virginia, hence listing him pre-tournament as one of my Elite 8 Unknowns…until tip. With either Dayton or Stanford a sure-fire for the actual Elite Eight, there is still much madness to be had. I hope you are all enjoying it. And hopefully your bracket doesn’t have as much pink highlighter as mine!
Sitting here in the Phoenix airport. One flight left until Vegas. Eight hours left until tip-off. I want to tell you about the eight players I feel could be household names by Saturday.
1. Jordair Jett – G – St. Louis
Jett epitomizes the senior leadership exhibited by the Saint Louis squad. NC State has become a fashionable pick to defeat the Billikins tomorrow in a 5-12 matchup. I would caution those looking for the obligatory 12 seed upsets tomorrow; UTEP was written on almost everyone’s bracket back in 2010 with Derek Caracter. Butler beat them by 20 then went on to the Championship Game. I see Saint Louis as very similar to Butler in that spot. Although “Jordair” sounds like the combination of His Greatness and his sneakers, he is actually more like a football player. I think he’ll move the chains, get to the rim, and beat Louisville or Manhattan to advance to the Sweet 16.
2. Elfrid Payton/Shawn Long – G/F – Louisiana Lafayette
The Ragin’ Cajuns duo here are the most productive pair in the entire NCAA Tournament. I don’t know if Creighton will have the defensive tandem to be able to guard them. They are both a tough cover with pure scorer mentalities.
3. Anthony Gill – G/F – Virginia
Gill played one season at South Carolina, averaging almost 8 points as a freshman before bolting to the Cavaliers. He took over a couple of games in the ACC Tournament and I think this is just the tip of the ice berg. It’s funny, I asked myself whether he is related to Kendal Gill, because he plays somewhat similar. Like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, Virginia is a great team, but can go through its offensive droughts. I believe Gill will be the answer this first weekend.
4. Amedo Della Valle – G – Ohio State
If you give me the opportunity to sneak in a paisan, I will. This kid looks like a cross between Danillo Gallinari and Sideshow Bob on the court, but his play has propelled the Buckeyes into the tournament. They could have easily ended up like Illinois and Indiana in the Big 10; Highly talented, but left on the outside looking in. Ohio State Coach Thad Matta has been looking for a second guard off the bench, especially in situations where they need to score. The freshman Loving from Toledo has recently been benched in lieu of Della Valle. I look for the Italian to continue his clutch play, quietly being the glue that gives this team a second wind in the second half.
5. Josh Newkirk – G – Pittsburgh
As previously mentioned, the Panthers can struggle to score at times. This freshman is changing that. He is an exceptionally quick guard. With the seniority surrounding him, Newkirk has been able to find his niche and contribute more scoring late this year. If there is a guy to hit a big shot to win a close game versus Colorado.
6. Eric Stutz – C – Eastern Kentucky
The Colonels beat a respectable Belmont squad to make the tournament. Picture NBA euro-star Luis Scola and you’ll see the NCAA equivalence in Stutz. What he lacks in athleticism, he will make up for in hustle. Eastern Kentucky is a very small team, but one of the best 3PT shooting team in the U.S. Stutz’s foul count could be the key to them covering a spread against the Kansas Jayhawks.
7. Deandre Bembry
Look for the afro on the court. Bembry reminds me of a young Sam Perkins. You’re not sure if he is a big or a guard. He will find himself in the paint when it’s time for offensive rebound for the team. He will sneak along the baseline when it’s time to knock down a twelve foot jumper. Bembry joins Kanacevic and Roberts Jr. on a very athletic front court for the Hawks. They can get above the rim. That’s why I believe Saint Joseph’s will make the actual Elite 8 with this one of my Eight Unkowns.
8. J.J. O’Brien – F – San Diego St.
O’Brien is the guy who you pick up on your team during pickup basketball because you actually want to win and hold the court. Fans who watch the Mountain West already know his name. I have credited coach Steve Fisher for training this Aztec defense as the best in the country for double-teaming. They confused Joel Embiid earlier in the year at Allen Fieldhouse during a win. J.J. O’Brien is usually the guy who comes over as the second defender, then quickly rotates to help side once the ball is passed opposite wing. I can see him knocking down a crucial and-one to catapolt the Aztecs into the Final Four. Right now I have Wisconsin in that region, but it could easily be San Diego St., Arizona or Oklahoma State. I am not believing in Creighton, Gonzaga, Oregon or Oklahoma as a Final Four team from that region.
I hear the conspiracy argument that the selection committee is fixing the bracket with compelling story-lines. So…where exactly is the controversy? Bring on the narratives!
Remember when you were a little kid and you couldn’t sleep on Christmas Eve? If I did get to sleep, I’d remember my sister Regina waking me up at 3 a.m., 4 a.m. to help her kill time. Well, since the bracket has come out it has been consecutive days of the Christmas insomnia. I am like a giddy little kid awaiting the 2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. And so I took this video on another holiday, Saint Patrick’s Day. I hope they give you good luck to strike the pot of gold in YOUR office pool.
Thank you anyone and everyone who read my rookie season of this blog. I squeaked-out an above-.500 record up until this point. I am 45-41 Against the Spread (Matt’s ATS) on my season picks. Depending on what shakes out with the league championships, this could be my last Saturday of regular season picks. Here they are…
Eastern Kentucky +7 vs. Belmont *This is the Ohio Valley Championship game and I think Eastern Kentucky will win the game outright. Both teams are wildly similar. The team that plays either in the first round of the NCAA Tournament better GUARD the 3-point line!
Kentucky +8 @ Florida Missouri St. +12 vs. Wichita State North Carolina +8 @ Duke Illinois +11 1/2 @ Iowa Oregon -3 vs. Arizona Iowa St. -3 1/2 vs. Oklahoma St. UCONN +10 vs. Louisville Georgetown +11 1/2 @ Villanova
Some awesome spreads this week for underdogs making a comeback into the bubble conversation. Georgetown, Illinois and Oregon have played great ball of late. In the words of Denny Green, “they are who we THOUGHT THEY WERE.” And they’re getting a chance today. Meanwhile, I can’t remember the last time Louisville won by 10+ points let alone the last time UCONN received that generous spread. I would trust Shabazz Napier with my house keys as far as point guard play is concerned. UNC Duke is too mar-key a matchup to be an 8 point game.
Matt’s ATS stands at 41-36 on the season.
(Take team on the left),
Miami + 4 1/2 @ NC State
LSU + 13 @ Florida
Oklahoma -5 vs. Texas
Syracuse +4 @ Virginia
Creighton -2 1/2 vs. Xavier
Minnesota +9 @ Michigan
VCU – 4 1/2 vs. St. Louis
California +4 1/2 @ Arizona St.
Oklahoma St. PK Kansas
College Basketball Eye Test 