Monthly Archives: December 2025

Best Underdog Future Values to Find Under the Christmas Tree

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College basketball future tickets for an underdog team to win the national championship in 2026 could make for a perfect stocking stuffer for 2025. Here are a few tickets I’d love to see under my Christmas tree.

BY MATTY D.

Big 10 offers ample opportunities for high value underdogs in NCAAB Futures market

Let’s start our search for future values in the Big 10 Conference, where the league is making a sound argument as being the nation’s best league, with multiple different suitors for a Final Four bid. Nebraska is the poster child for the high ceiling teams within this group. In mid-November, you could find the Cornhuskers around 250-1 to win it all. Now, after winning its first 12 games and scoring key resume win against Illinois, K-State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Creighton, this team is still a bargain at 60-1.

Here are some more Big 10 teams to consider for your portfolio. Michigan State stands at 20-1, Illinois 22-1, Iowa at 100-1, and Indiana at 120-1. Those odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and posted on Christmas Eve.

Of course, Michigan stands alone at the top with the biggest amount of respect given in the futures market currently. They are +450 to win it all. That’s at least twice as expensive as any other team in the nation.

Which favorite is the best future value to win the 2026 college basketball championship?

With the Wolverines sitting at +450, that leaves a fleet of still great value picks around that 10-1 neighborhood. Arizona is +850, UCONN 10-1, and Duke 11-1. That group is followed by Iowa State, Purdue, and Houston at 12-1 or 13-1.

From that group, I would choose Arizona and Duke. In fact, I could easily see these teams steamrolling the competition to represent the West and East regions respectively in the national championship game itself. Having two tickets at +850 and 11-1 with that championship matchup together would be a good problem to have.

If those odds aren’t cheap enough for your liking, consider this. This is also the time of the sports calendar year where NFL teams are starting to separate themselves and either pass the eye test, or not. While teams like the Buccaneers, Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs are all suffering some unlikely knockout punches, teams like the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers are showing some incredible value.

For example, a $5 bet on the 49ers to win the NFC combined with Arizona to win the championship would net $332.

Super sleeper underdogs who could compete in the 2026 March Madness tournament

As they say, “get in the dance and anything can happen.”

Here are some crazy underdogs that I am keeping an eye on at the 100-1 and lower vicinity.

Please note that most of these teams would have to win their own conference tournament championship to enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

St. Mary’s is 250-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

The Gaels actually have a recent history of making the tournament as an at large team, thanks in part to its conference mate Gonzaga’s gravitational pull as a national power plus its holding its own against those Bulldogs. This year, St. Mary’s returns an impressive veteran core that includes Harry Wessels and Paulius Murauskas, plus super sophomores Mikey Lewis and Andrew McKeever. McKeever, a 7 foot 2 center from California is averaging nearly a double double after 13 games (11-2 in that stretch).

Utah State 200-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

Someone is coming out of the Mountain West grandfathered in as the annual 7 through 11 seed, and this veteran laden bunch is as good a bet as any to win a few games.

Before conference play, Utah State Aggies quietly built a strong résumé for bettors seeking high-quality future value picks. The Aggies paired legitimate wins over programs like VCU and Tulane with dominant blowouts of Davidson, Charlotte, and Colorado State, showing both floor and ceiling. That blend of NET-relevant victories and decisive margins signaled a team undervalued nationally entering league play.

South Florida Bulls at +280 to win the American Conference

Before conference play fully shapes the market, the South Florida Bulls profile as an appealing future value bet under head coach Bryan Hodgson. Coming from the Nate Oats coaching tree, Hodgson emphasizes pace, spacing, and high-volume three-point shooting. His track record of rapid turnarounds and top-50 offenses suggests South Florida’s relentless attack could outperform preseason expectations. You cannot find South Florida on futures markets just yet, so we will leave the article here with a nasty haymaker pick. If you want to play this team, you can grab them at +280 to win their conference and add to that position if/when they make the tournament that way.

College Basketball Game Previews Weekend before Christmas

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The conference schedules are starting nationwide and college basketball teams have a better idea of how much work their tournament resumes need. Here are some highlights going into the games for the Saturday before Christmas.

BY MATTY D.

Kentucky Wildcats vs St. John’s Red Storm — Volatility Meets a Potential Energy Shift

The Kentucky Wildcats have been one of the hardest teams in the country to pin down so far, and that unpredictability is exactly what makes this spot fascinating. Getting overwhelmed by Gonzaga followed by a confidence-boosting win over Indiana illustrates a team still searching for its identity, but also one capable of sharp course correction. The biggest storyline hovering over this matchup is the possible debut of Jayden Quaintance, the Arizona State transfer whose arrival alone signals a shift in Kentucky’s ceiling. Video circulating of him exiting the team bus ahead of the St. John’s game hints that his first appearance this season could be imminent. If Quaintance is active, his athleticism, rebounding range, and defensive activity give Kentucky a game-changing element down low—exactly the kind of jolt that stabilizes a team still oscillating between extremes. This is less about one result and more about whether Kentucky starts to look structurally tougher and more connected.

Jayden Quaintance exits bus for St Johns game video courtesy BleedBlueCasy on Twitter

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Ohio State Buckeyes — The Market Undersells the Home Edge

The North Carolina Tar Heels feel undervalued laying only a short number at home against Ohio State Buckeyes. This is a classic situation where perception hasn’t quite caught up to reality. North Carolina has shown a steadiness and physical maturity that doesn’t always pop in headline results but consistently shows up over forty minutes, especially in Chapel Hill. Freshman phenom Caleb Wilson has been the model of consistency, scoring 20 points exactly for the past three consecutive games.

Ohio State has talent and can score in stretches, but the Tar Heels’ ability to control tempo, defend in space, and leverage their home environment creates separation that isn’t always reflected in a tight spread. This feels like a game where North Carolina’s cumulative advantages—experience, structure, and crowd energy—matter more than individual shot-making runs.

Memphis Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs — Two Programs Crossing Paths at a Fork in the Road

Timing is everything in college basketball, and the matchup between the Memphis Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs comes at a revealing moment for both programs. Mississippi State appears to be riding momentum after a meaningful win over Utah, a result that could serve as a confidence anchor as the season sharpens. It could also be an important resume bullet to score a tournament berth.

Memphis, on the other hand, is recalibrating after a loss to Vanderbilt Commodores, a team whose national ranking has validated that result as more than a stumble. Memphis looked like a super athletic scoring machine at times, but also an undisciplined train-wreck at others. In the middle of the first half, they looked dead. Memphis went on a scoring run around the mid-point of the game for a scoring comeback, but ultimately lost in overtime at home. This game reads like a directional check: Mississippi State trending upward with defensive buy-in and toughness, while Memphis searches for consistency after a setback that exposed some fault lines. When teams meet at these crossroads, the side with clarity and momentum often dictates the terms—and right now, Mississippi State looks closer to knowing exactly who it is.

Close-up on College Basketball as Conference Schedules Get Rolling

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After an eventful month plus of non-conference games with important outcomes, the college basketball season is transitioning into conference play where we are looking for the best leagues. As for the nation’s best teams, it feels like a band of heavyweights including Michigan, Arizona, and Duke remain squarely at the top. While Purdue was voted just barely outside of the top 5 in this week’s AP voting, they still remain one of the favorites to win a championship.

BY MATTY D.

There is a cluster of teams just below the top 5 that is intriguing to watch. In this week’s AP Top 25 Poll, Iowa State popped into the top 5, ranking as the 4th best team in the nation. This group also includes potential championship pedigree teams such as UCONN, Houston, and Gonzaga. This weekend I wanted to see another potential title contender from this class. I watched Michigan State struggle to separate itself from Penn State in a sleepy Saturday matinee in Happy Valley.

Sparty struggles with PSU signals what’s to come in conference play nationwide

This is a college basketball season where the cream has risen to the top like none other. The best freshman class of players in a generation were the subject of an arms race where major programs have never had more latitude to spend on their stars because of the NIL. However, despite all of this, the underdog still has a shot between the lines and within the 40 minute game clock.

The Michigan State Spartans took their top 10 national ranking into Penn State to play the first of 20 conference games as a heavy favorite, but the pesky Lions were neck-and-neck. This fight reminded me how the top seeded teams need to be on defense this winter against the rogue underdog. Regardless of how many 5-star athletes you have on your roster, a sleepy matinee can always rock a group of college kids who likely would rather sleep-in, anyway.

Arizona Separates Itself in Superior Stretch Against Offensive Juggernaut Alabama

This was the exact stretch where Arizona showed it isn’t just capable of trading blows with an offensive juggernaut — it knows how to end the fight. In a span of barely two minutes, the Wildcats ripped control away through depth, pressure, and poise. Ivan Kharchenkov set the tone with a steal and layup, Brayden Burries followed with another swipe, and suddenly Arizona was running downhill. Tobe Awaka hammered home a dunk off a Burries assist, and when Alabama tried to breathe, Burries calmly buried a three and then leaked out for a layup on the next possession. That sequence wasn’t about one star going nuclear — it was Arizona flaunting waves of contributors, each doing their job at full speed. Burries, though, was the engine. The #12 recruit in the nation looked every bit the part as a freshman, impacting the game as a scorer, facilitator, and disruptor. This is what separates contenders from pretenders: Arizona didn’t just survive the storm — it overwhelmed Alabama with depth, execution, and the kind of finishing instinct that championship teams develop early.

Other Observations from Outside the Top 10 in the AP Top 25

Nebraska is finally getting its due. The Cornhuskers had already proven their worth with a Feast Week tournament championship, but their undefeated record got another notch on the belt this week with an impressive win at Illinois. Nebraska is now finally in the 15th slot in the national rankings.

Kansas freshman superstar Darryn Peterson returned from injury after missing a few games and the Jayhawks responded. KU defeated NC State as a slight underdog and now maintain their ranking at 17th overall.

Florida already has four losses but somehow survived living in the AP Top 25 at 23rd overall.

Georgia and Virginia debut on the Top 25 for the first time this season, with programs like Kentucky, Clemson, and UCLA finding themselves on the outside looking in.

College Basketball Games to Watch for 2025 College Football Conference Championship Weekend

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Although conference championship crowns are being captured this weekend, these are some pivotal college basketball matchups to watch closely as the non-conference schedule winds down.

PICKS BY MATTY D.

Michigan State hosts Duke as Sparty Sees Itself as Surprise +1.5 Underdog

I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. You have a darling blue blood who has all of the nation’s highest rated recruits sprinkled with some long tenured program guards who just know how to play basketball. Duke comes straight out of central casting for that one. Enter Tom Izzo’s bunch. They look more like a defensive line group, with perhaps a few black and blue eyes to match. This Motley Cru normally mucks up the action with physical play.

Michigan State finds itself as a surprising 30-1 underdog to win the National Championship at this point, after its already excelled in the non-conference session throughout November.

Give me the Spartans to win outright, but I’ll take the 1 1/2 points if they’re giving it.

Either way, this will be a very interesting test for Duke super freshman Cameron Boozer (among this incredible list of sons of NBA stars currently playing collect basketball) as he has so far cruised to 30 plus point games against major programs. He has made it look easy doing it.

Overlooked Mid-major pick of the college basketball weekend

Not many people nationally are talking about the big upset win that Bowling Green scored at K-State this week. It was an impressive performance from the three point line and specifically for senior Sam Towns who dropped 17 points in the first half.

This, despite K-State having one of the nation’s highest paid players in Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty.

I don’t see a let down from Bowling Green here in this spot as they are spotting Utah Valley a casual 1 1/2 points, according to DraftKings line as of one hour before tip nationwide.

Feast Week Debrief – College Basketball 2025 Recap

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The college basketball regular season is very irregular, so it behooves fans who hope to pick the (nearly) perfect bracket to pay attention to what happened around the holidays. Feast Week during Thanksgiving is one of the most important weeks. That’s because teams with Final Four aspirations are building up their “non-conference resume.” Later, the conference schedule gets clogged with league opponents in January and February.

BY MATTY D.

My family laughs at me because I am so locked in during Feast Week, paying attention to who is performing well on a neutral floor. That irregular schedule for college hoops starts with a flurry of very important measuring stick games between teams who don’t naturally play each other. January can be more low-key as a bad loss in conference could be excused. However, in February and especially early March, bubble teams need to win every game to solidify their resume for a tournament birth. And, even the teams ranked in the top 10 want wins so that they can lock up 1 and 2 seeds. Here are some of the teams that looked like 1 or 2 seeds this Feast Week.

Looking Like 1 or 2 Seed NCAA Tournament Teams in November

This college basketball season started with an eye-opening performance by Arizona. More specifically, it was a coming out party for freshman Koa Peat, who dominated a game against Florida. However, as the Gators no longer look like a top 10 team and that Wildcats victory fades into our memory, a new red hot team is jumping onto the radar.

Can Wolverines Continue to Dominate College Basketball?

For a brief moment there during the Feast Week festivities, Gonzaga looked like they would be proclaimed the people’s champion and front-runner for the 2026 Championship. The newer “Players Era” Championship feast week tournament has become all the rage. The stock for traditional tournaments such as The Battle for Atlantis and The Mauii Invitational has lost value. In the Players Era semifinals, Gonzaga put a hurting on the always-tough defensive unit that is San Diego State. They looked like a very veteran team that could possibly sail to an unblemished non-conference record and then an even more comfortable conference schedule in the West Coast Conference.

However, then Michigan happened. Gonzaga played Michigan in the championship game and it was never even close. Michigan won by 40 points, Trey McKenney scored 17, and Yexel Lendeborg was named tournament MVP for his blossoming play.

Lendeborg, a native of Puerto Rico, has had an interesting pathway to Division 1 success. He not only played the last two seasons in relative obscurity at UAB, but he also barely knew that he’d be a college athlete during his major life adjustment over high school. Watch a special report by News 11 in Yuma, Arizona, where Lendeborg played junior college basketball.

Another Team in Michigan Carries an Undefeated Record into December

Michigan State was another notable program to pass on the tournament format during Feast Week. They and Duke continued rolling in their own paths. The Spartans continue to be fueled by the nation’s best dunker, Coen Carr and the steady hand of point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. A showcase game between Michigan State and UNC saw the experience and athleticism of the Spartans outpace the sometimes sensational play of UNC super freshman Caleb Wilson.

Houston Out-bullied by the Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee’s win over Houston wasn’t just a notch on the Vols’ non-conference belt — it was a toughness test, and they passed it in the final possessions. In a game defined by defensive clamps and half-court grit, it was Tennessee that made the firmer cuts, secured the harder rebounds, and executed the cleaner possessions when it mattered most. Houston rarely gets out-muscled in winning time, but the Vols did just enough of the dirty work to finish the job and earn one of November’s most meaningful victories. Ja’Kobi Gillespie proved that he was one of the best point guards in the nation (exemplified by how he carried himself in a postgame interview that has since gone viral) and Jaylen Carey was just a men amongst boys down low.