It’s the penultimate month before March and the college basketball picture looks a lot different from what was expected at the start of the 2025-2026 season. Nebraska went from being unranked in the preseason, to currently projected as a potential 1 seed in the tournament. It took until late January for the Cornhuskers to harvest their first loss of the season. Their Big 10 counterpart and victor in that game, Michigan, went from being a preseason 12th ranked program to looking unbeatable. The Wolverines have been absolutely crushing teams.
Dangerous mid-major underdogs roam wild across college basketball
As the major programs (and their coaches) whine about the lack of loyalty that happens in the new NIL portal-crazed climate (boo-whoo), the smaller mid-major programs are quietly putting together impressive resumes.
St. Louis Billikens basketball is currently the 21st ranked team in the nation. However, it’s not only the major power teams that are leveraging the transfer portal. The Billikens sport 10 newcomers on this roster. You may remember one of their transfers in the popular “Cream Adbul Jabbar” Robbie Avila, a transfer from Indiana State. Avila’s Sycamores got totally snubbed from the NCAA Tournament last season. They enter February with only 1 loss and are competing in an Atlantic 10 division that has a favorable argument to make for two teams getting invited to the tournament. George Mason and VCU have also been putting together tourney-contention-worthy resumes.
UNCW made its loudest statement of the season by walking into Baltimore and dominating Towson in a nationally televised game between two legitimate CAA contenders. That wasn’t a hot shooting night or a matchup fluke—it was a physical, controlled performance that showed roster maturity and a clear identity. The Seahawks’ rotation leans heavily on experienced guards and upper-class forwards who understand spacing, shot selection, and how to defend without gambling. UNCW dictated tempo, owned the glass, and took Towson out of its comfort zone early, turning a big conference game into a showcase. When a mid-major can impose itself on the road, on TV, against a peer, that’s the kind of résumé line that carries weight in February and credibility in March.
Liberty Flames continue to look like one of the most structurally sound teams in the country, regardless of conference label. Their depth is real, not theoretical, with a steady rotation of players who accept roles and execute them cleanly. Liberty’s offense doesn’t rely on one scorer or one action; it wears teams down with spacing, shot discipline, and relentless rebounding, especially on second chances. The experience across the roster shows up late in halves, when possessions matter and Liberty almost always gets a good look. This is the type of team metrics love and opponents hate, because nothing feels easy and mistakes are punished immediately.
South Florida deserves more attention than it’s getting nationally, because the Bulls consistently pass the eye test in ways that translate to tournament play. Their physicality stands out, particularly on the offensive glass, where they generate extra possessions at an elite rate and grind opponents into foul trouble. The Bulls lead the country in second chance points. It’s a big reason why they easily hit triple digits in games. USF doesn’t need to shoot lights-out to win games—they overwhelm teams with effort, depth, and pressure that accumulates over forty minutes. When you watch them against quality competition, the takeaway isn’t just that they’re winning, but how they’re winning. That profile—tough, rebounding-heavy, and comfortable playing ugly—is exactly what creates first-round upsets in March.
College Basketball Eye Test 