The Mountain West has opened the 2025–26 season with a competitive upper tier and several teams showing signs that the league could once again chase multiple NCAA Tournament bids. Early-season performances from Utah State, Colorado State, Boise State, Grand Canyon, and San Diego State have helped shape the conference’s identity heading into December.
Below is a focused check-in on these five teams, plus an updated look at Fresno State’s early results.
Utah State (4–0, KenPom No. 66)
Utah State has delivered one of the most complete early-season profiles in the conference. Their senior leadership and defensive cohesion have been clear strengths, allowing them to control pace and dictate matchups across their first four games.
Their win over VCU stands out as the defining moment of November. Seniors Kolby King, Garry Clark, and MJ Collins Jr. took command of the game from the opening tip. King steadied the offense and controlled tempo; Clark imposed himself physically inside; and Collins Jr. delivered steady perimeter defense and confident scoring. Anytime VCU attempted to swing momentum, one of Utah State’s veterans answered with a high-level possession. The Aggies never relinquished control, and the victory showcased their maturity and readiness to compete at the top of the conference.
Colorado State (4–1)
Colorado State continues to lean on strong spacing, smart ball movement, and dependable guard play. Their early-season results reflect a disciplined team that understands how to generate efficient offense even against superior size or athleticism.
Boise State (4–1)
Boise State has once again emerged as a physical and fundamentally solid team. Their home-court strength remains one of the most reliable factors in the conference, and the Broncos’ ability to defend without fouling has traveled well in the early weeks.
Grand Canyon (3–2, KenPom No. 87)
Grand Canyon’s efficiency ranking places them among the Mountain West’s early standouts. With length at multiple positions and defensive activity that disrupts rhythm, they’ve already shown they can handle high-major size and speed.
San Diego State (2–1, KenPom No. 80)
San Diego State continues to embody the traits that have defined their program for years—pressure defense, physical shot contests, and confident late-game execution. Even with limited sample size, they again look like one of the most dependable teams in the Mountain West.
Fresno State (5–2)
Fresno State has the win total, but not the profile. However, their losses at home to UC San Diego and especially SC Upstate—currently ranked 326th in KenPom—makes it so that we can’t take them seriously.
The Selection Sunday Show, broadcast exclusively by CBS Sports at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time, is just hours away. In the meantime, there’s a lot of housekeeping to take care of as a college basketball fan.
If you’re the fan of a bubble team, I hope your plans for this Sunday morning included going to church and saying a few Hail Mary’s. The quality of the bubble teams’ play down the stretch has left something to be desired. North Carolina couldn’t come up with a quality win. Boise State got crushed by Colorado State in its championship game. And, it’s felt like an eternity since we saw Wake Forest, Xavier and Ohio State play basketball.
Colorado State sophomore Rashaan Mbemba rises up over a defender for a hook shot.
Here are some sites to keep your eyes on before the 2025 March Madness bracket is revealed.
Best Underdogs Odds to Win a Title before 2025 March Madness Bracket Reveal
Another piece of housekeeping before the bracket is revealed includes jumping on some crazy odds before they dry up. For example, Yale was still spotted at 1,000-to-1 to win it all. Sure, this is a crazy bet, but if they (or a similar underdog) make the Sweet 16, you’d look like a genius with a lot of leverage in your pocket.
Sometimes you just have to see things for what they are. This is a college basketball season where the cream has been rising to, and is now congealed solid on, the top. The SEC powers and possible eventual champions Auburn, Alabama, Florida and Tennessee all handled their business in decisive fashion. Duke crushed its opponent, which was a desperate UNC team that needed a quality win. Will the dominance continue in semifinal and championship games?
Here are my predictions for a critical Saturday across the college basketball landscape. The team is begin with is the team I would take considering the spread.
Michigan -3.5 vs. Wisconsin College Basketball Prediction, Pick
Its the time of year wihen Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo leads guards who are peaking in their command of the game. Forwards are ripping the rebound away from the opponent. They are hungry, they are hungry, and they are well coached. Combo guard Jase Richardson finds himself climbing up NBA mock draft boards. [Click here to see a full list of NBA sons in NCAAB today].
Tennessee +5.5 vs. Auburn College Basketball Prediction, Pick
This Tennessee Vols team is interesting. Its starting five appears to have all the right parts, but with six losses in this SEC schedule, is there a ceiling for this team right below where the cream rises?
For today’s matchup I see Tennessee having something more to prove than Auburn and probably winning this game. I’d certainly like them getting five points.
Michigan +4.5 vs. Maryland College Basketball Prediction, Pick
Michigan is a highly talented team that looks like it’s still figuring each other out. Turnovers have cost them games. However, you wouldn’t expect that from a team with a lot of transfers but a lot of them with high stakes Madness games under their belts. Today a surging Maryland team will probably beat them outright, but I expect a wire-to-wire game where Michigan plus 4-and-a-half sounds good to me.
VCU -9.5 vs. Loyola Chicago College Basketball Prediction, Pick VCU’s defensive pressure has the potential to suffocate Loyola Chicago in this matchup. The Rams thrive on creating turnovers and converting them into easy buckets, a recipe that should overwhelm a Ramblers team that has struggled against elite defensive units. With their ability to control the glass and dictate the tempo, a double-digit win for VCU looks appealing.
Memphis -8.5 vs. Tulane College Basketball Prediction, Pick Memphis has the length, athleticism, and defensive chops to make life miserable for Tulane. The Tigers’ pressure defense should disrupt the Green Wave’s perimeter shooting while their ability to attack in transition will keep the scoreboard moving.
Alabama +3.5 vs. Florida College Basketball Prediction, Pick Alabama’s offensive attack is built to stretch defenses, and that’s exactly what I see happening against Florida. The Crimson Tide’s ability to hit threes in bunches and force a faster tempo should neutralize the Gators’ size advantage. With the way Alabama can take over games late, getting three-and-a-half points in this spot is something that stands out.
St. John’s -6.5 vs. Creighton College Basketball Prediction, Pick St. John’s thrives in chaotic games, and they should have Creighton playing at an uncomfortable pace. Their defensive pressure will create turnovers, and their depth will allow them to keep the pressure on for 40 minutes. At home, with the crowd at MSG fueling their energy, a win by at least seven looks like a sharp play. With old school New Yorkers crawling all around and inside the Garden, this is an ESPN Classic before it even tips.
Louisville +5.5 vs. Duke College Basketball Prediction, Pick Louisville has shown a scrappy edge lately, and that’s exactly what you need to stay competitive against Duke. The Cardinals’ physicality in the paint and ability to control the tempo should keep them within striking distance all game. Given the way they’ve been competing, getting five-and-a-half points in this spot looks like a clear value play. Two-way star Chucky Hepburn for Louisville has been the agitator and leader on this surging, high energy team. Coach Pat Kelsey has them playing a brand of basketball similar to the up-tempo exhausting pace that had both his Winthrop and College of Charleston underdogs in several tournaments in recent years. I like Louisville to compete with Duke throughout and possibly land a black eye with a giant haymaker here.
March Madness is almost here, and every college basketball fan wants an edge. Whether you’re tracking injuries, scouting underdogs, or looking for fun destinations to experience the madness firsthand, CollegeBasketballeyetest.com has you covered. Our latest Elite 8 Articles connect you with the most important topics leading up to the tournament.
📲 Your One-Stop Shop for College Hoops
We dive deep into the latest trends, hidden betting opportunities, and must-watch storylines. These articles guide you through every aspect of the tournament:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch – Key players battling injuries could make or break their team’s chances. Stay informed before placing any bets.
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars – Meet the next generation of basketball royalty making waves in college hoops.
🐶 Top 5 Underrated Underdogs – Every year, a few lower-seeded teams make a deep run. These are the squads to keep an eye on.
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions – From historic buzzer-beaters to iconic pep bands, relive the best traditions of the tournament.
📊 Season ATS Standings – Betting against the spread? Check which teams have been the most (and least) profitable all season.
💰 This Week’s Best Picks – Get expert insights on the best value plays leading up to Selection Sunday.
🕵️♂️ Fun Matchups the Committee Could Conspire – Which potential tournament matchups could stir up the most drama? We break down the possibilities.
✈️ Four Fun Destinations to Travel for March Madness – Want to experience the madness in person? Here are four great cities to catch the action live.
With these deep dives, our site connects college basketball fans to the info they crave. Click through to any article and stay ahead of the game this March! 🚀
If you are exploring the futures market or already filling out your bracket, you need to do a status check on these men’s college basketball player injuries first!
🏀🏀Selection Sunday Edition last updated March 15, 2025 🏀🏀
Will Cooper Flagg Play Injured During March Madness for the Duke Blue Devils?
Just as news was announced that Duke superstar freshman would miss the ACC Championship game, Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated were reporting that Flagg would be playing in the NCAA Tournament.
For Duke, it’s not only Cooper Flagg whose injury is stressing out fans. Fellow projected NBA pick and forward Maliq Brown has also been spotted on the sidelines wearing an arm wrap after dislocating his shoulder.
Texas Tech Twin Injuries that Could Ruin a Deep-Run for Red Raiders
Chance McMillian and Darrian Williams each missed Texas Tech’s last game in the Big 12 Tournament, which was also a lop-sided loss to Arizona.
Alabama snagged a 2-seed in the tournament, but wasn’t sure the tournament availability of its big man, Grant Nelson. On conference championship weekend, Alabama.com was reporting that the injury wasn’t structural.
Grant Nelson stretches the floor for a high scoring Alabama attack
Memphis Basketball Injury Status for Star Guard Tyrese Hunter
During the American Conference semifinal, Tyrese Hunter landed awkwardly on another players toes. He found himself on the sidelines in a walking boot for the rest of that contest against Tulane.
Tyrese Hunter gets a foot boot in the semifinal of his conference tournament.
Arkansas Hogs Hope for Big Bonus if their Bubble Berth Gets Buttoned-Up
Once expected to miss the entire season, Arkansas’s guard Boogie Fland could add a major boost to the Razorback’s roster if he rebounds from a hand injury. The setback happened in January, but reports started to surface around Selection Sunday that Fland is returning to practice.
Iowa State lists Nagging Injuries during Championship Week
The Cyclones are another team limping to the finish line of the regular season. Covers.com had both key rotation players Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey listed on the injury report as they both missed the Cyclone’s last game which was a rematch against BYU in the Big 12 Tournament. Lipsey and Gilbert had both played the prior game the day beforehand to Cincinnati, so one would assume they were being treated with care to avoid games on consecutive days.
Gilbert himself tweeted more information late Sunday, answering to speculation:
“Love/appreciate all of your support! i want yall to kno that there is nothing more to the situation. Im battling an injury that just can’t seem to get better while playing on it. But enough about me! We a 3 seed in Milwaukee .. Ik the guys are going to make you all proud!”-KG2Times on Twitter
Tender Wrist for St. John’s Hands-On Defense
Simeon Wilcher of St. John’s injured his hand in the semifinal game in the Big East Tournament, but played in the championship game the following day against Creighton.
Other Injuries from the Archives Only for the 2024-2025 College Basketball Season
<The headlines below are archival references preceding >
Kansas KJ Adams Misses Time, Jayhawks Take Opportunity to Develop Depth
KJ Adams missed some time for the Kansas Jayhawks in late January. The one major loss suffered during that period was an embarrassing late collapse at Allen Fieldhouse against the Houston Cougars. However, this could ultimately be a good thing. This allowed the Jayhawks to develop the depth of their roster. Freshman forward Flory Bidunga flourished despite losing to Houston. He got some rare playing time and showed flashes of greatness in the post. Add him to a front line that includes Hunter Dickinson, who is having a healthy season for the chalky Jayhawks, and KU is suddenly looking like a dangerous blood blood that somehow snuck under the radar.
It is impossible to replace the production that Hunter Dickinson brings to KU Hoops. After a 2023-2024 season that saw him miss some time, Dickinson has played every game for the Jayhawks in November, December and January. His game log (and our eye test) shows consistent rebounding numbers between 8 and 14 per game. Dickinson can also get hot as a scorer, with a high ceiling in the high 20s.
Xavier NBA Prospect Plays after Limping Off Court Against St. John’s Mid-January
Xavier Sophomore Dailyn Swain was averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds when his squad was riding a 3 game winning streak and battling St. John’s in a Big East showdown at MSG. Swain was injured late and limped off the court as Xavier was in the middle of squandering a health lead.
Still, Swain returned right to the lineup in the next game. Instead, Xavier basketball has three other injuries listed on the Covers.com site.
The week before Selection Sunday gives clarity on college basketball’s rising and falling stock.
BY MATTY D.
On the morning of Thursday, March 9th CBS Network bracketologist Jerry Palm had Michigan in and Rutgers out. Mississippi State was also on the edge of the March Madness bubble. And as quickly as games could tip on that day, the tournament landscape shifted again.
Michigan lost to Rutgers by 12 points, effectively losing its place on the bubble.
Conversely, Rutgers raised its stock on the right side of the bubble.
In the SEC, Mississippi State effectively punched its ticket with a close win against the Florida Gators. The Bulldogs will now play Alabama where it’s academic who wins. Both teams should be tournament teams.
Oklahoma State is another bubble team that couldn’t pop through its own glass ceiling. The Cowboys lost in the 7 vs. 2 matchup against Texas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. With Joe Lunardi listing them as one of the last four in, this loss almost certainly ensures they’ll show up as an 11 seed in a play-in game (if at all).
The ACC has a similar dynamic on its hand. None of its “bubble teams” are seizing the moment. Clemson, UNC, and Pittsburgh are all showing their warts within the final chapter of conference play.
Despite the typo, Joe Lunardi’s bubble was full of Big 10 and ACC teams.
Mid-major teams take care of business as bubble teams drop the ball
The team that is remiss from the bubble conversation on both Palm and ESPN bracketologist’s Joe Lunardi’s projection mid-way through Championship Week was Florida Atlantic. The Owls were a mainstay in the Top 25 before getting into the meat of its own difficult Conference USA schedule. They avoided this bubble conversation because they simply took care of business. Having only 3 losses on the season, FAU had slowly risen out of bubble talks and into the 9 or 10 seed on projections. Having played the likes of a talented North Texas and UAB squad, FAU’s regular conference season was not without its NET-boosting opportunities. The few losses that the Owls had suffered were respectable. The Owls were also able to upset the aforementioend Florida Gators in one of its few Quad 1 opportunities. FAU was still battling for its conference title heading into the weekend, but looking solid for an at-large bid regardless. Another mid-major team that took care of its business was College of Charleston. The Cougars went into Championship Week also as a 3 loss team. Joe Lunardi had them out of the tournament if it weren’t for a conference championship. But the Cougars took care of business. They beat a respectable challenger in Towson during the quarterfinals then capped off the crown with a win against UNCW. Teams like College of Charleston and FAU should be seen for what they are. They are hardened by a conference schedule where they were the hunted. And they survived. These teams should be much more fear than a fledurling Michigan or Wisconsin “bubble team” from the Big 10. (Wisconsin lost to a pathetic Ohio State team in the conference tournament).
Johnell Davis photo courtesy Mauricio Paiz/ fausports.com
Mountain West climbs towards five tournament teams as Selection Sunday nears
Utah State is considered a bubble team, although Aggies fans shouldn’t worry. Very rarely does a team within the top 25-30 of the NET not make the NCAA Tournament. This year, their losses are a lot more justified with the Mountain West ranking higher than the ACC in a lot of categories. Conference mate Boise State is also technically on the bubble line, although the Broncos are in a similar power position. Utah State could be the fifth tournament team from the Mountain West, joining Boise State, San Diego State (regular season champions), New Mexico and Nevada or San Jose State.
Other news and notes from NCAAB’s Championship Week:
Baylor is officially in damage control mode after getting swept this season by the Iowa State Cyclones of all teams. ISU beat the Bears three times total this season, including a conference tournament win Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.
Marquette messed around and was losing to 8 seeded St. John’s at halftime before conference player of the year Tyler Kylek and the Golden Eagles came back to win.
UCLA got great contributions from Amari Bailey and Adem Bona in their PAC-12 Tournament win against a fiesty Colorado Buffs program. Bailey and Bona are going to be crucially important as the Bruins just lost Jaylen Clark, likely out for the season.
March Madness 2023 is underway and this article is tracking the most important injuries to monitor. That includes watching how teams are adjusting after losing stars. Don’t fill out your 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket before checking on the health statuses here!
BY MATTY D.
The new headline is to track the status of a starting guard for the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship. Marcus Sasser missed the AAC Championship game against Memphis and is questionable going forward.
Unfortunately, this update also comes as one of the best players on one of the best teams just tore his ACL. Zakai Zeigler, the 5-9 spark plug for the Vols offense and defense just suffered the injury on the eve of March. Despite the cruel turn of events for this surging sophomore, he took to Twitter with a very positive message:
It’s all apart of God’s plan. Minor setback for a Major comeback🙏🏽🧡
Aside from Zeigler’s major injury, there are many student athletes still in recovery mode. Here are the top 11 injuries to monitor while those players are nursing different ailments. See more of a summary of how this affects each team in alphabetical order below.
Top Injuries to Monitor across College Basketball
To recap, here is a top 10 list (plus some) of the most important injuries to monitor:
14. Jett Howard – Michigan guard 13. Chucky Hepburn – Wisconsin guard 12. Moussa Cisse – Oklahoma State center 11. Anthony Anderson III – Oklahoma State guard – – – – – – – – – PROJECTED CUT – – – – – – – – – 11. Nijel Pack – Miami guard 10. Efton Reid III – Gonzaga center 9. Federiko Federiko – Pittsburgh center 8. Kendrick Davis – Memphis guard 7. Timmy Allen – Texas forward 6. Ben Vander Plas – Virginia forward 5. Zach Freemantle – Xavier forward 4. Keyonte George – Baylor guard 3. *Jaylen Clark – UCLA wing 2. *Zakai Zeigler – Tennessee guard 1. Marcus Sasser – Houston guard
In the case of 2 of the top 3 injuries here, there is no chance for a recovery. Both Jaylen Clark and Zakai Zeigler are *out for the remainder of the season. In these and similar cases, we are monitoring the team adjustments instead of the personal recoveries.
Players recently returned from injury add to resurgent college basketball teams
It’s not all bad news on this list. In fact, there’s a strong handful of players who are recently back into lineups and taking their teams to the next level. Nick Smith Jr. is adding a scoring punch to an Arkansas lineup that suddenly has found itself on the bubble. Justin Moore has a month under his belt after a torn Achilles. His Villanova Wildcats looks like Nova once again. And Dariq Whitehead has been back for Duke with the Blue Devils finally safely off the bubble.
See more about each team affected in alphabetical order below.
Arkansas and its future NBA lottery pick Nick Smith Jr. navigates knee “management”
Nick Smith Jr. returned to action on February 11th after missing nearly two months with “knee management.” He played just 21 game minutes in his first pair of games, but then averaged around 35 minutes after that. In fact, he played all 40 minutes in a close matchup against the Alabama Roll Tide in a game the Razorbacks were fighting from behind for most of. He dropped 24 points and grabbed 6 points in that game. It looks like Nick Smith Jr. is back to his NBA prospect self, but check his injury status pregame during March Madness just in case!
Keyonte George missed a game at Oklahoma State in late February, but it almost didn’t matter. The freshman shooting guard has glided right into a productive role with Baylor this season. But in his absence, the Baylor Bears just reloaded again. This team is already accustomed to losing one or two first round picks to the NBA every year. Now, it’s also been in the unfortunate habit of having injured players miss some of all of the season. Baylor has been in postseason position and jockeying for the Big 12 title this season, despite not having veteran forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. Now he is back.
In that Oklahoma State game that George missed with an ankle sprain, seldom used guard Dale Bonner filed right in with 15 points in 32 minutes. He had rarely played in the previous few games. Baylor coach Scott Drew has an abundance of riches. This team should be feared as a top pick to win it all.
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images
Duke started its season without the services of All-American freshmen, center Dereck Lively II and small forward Dariq Whitehead. In late February, Duke had a completely clean injury report according to Covers.com. Still, double-check these youthful Dukies for any bumps and bruises.
Gonzaga monitors the injury status of its rim protector off the bench Efton Reid III
If the Gonzaga Bulldogs are going to make a deep run in the tournament, they need to stand tall at the rim. After 7-foot something Chet Holmgren left for the NBA, the Bulldogs were a little thin on the inside. They added Efton Reid III, a big man from LSU. When Reid popped up on the injury report in late February, it was a concern for Gonzaga’s overall depth.
Reid has returned to action in March, but has played sparingly. He logged only four minutes in the WCC Championship game against St. Mary’s.
Memphis monitors a motley crew of injuries to its ball-handlers
Point guard Keynote Kennedy punched a wall after a loss to Houston and effectively sidelined himself for the rest of the regular season. He was the Tigers third leading scorer. Its top scorer and senior transfer Kendrick Davis also missed that game with a bad ankle. Davis averages around 21 points a game. Both of these teams are worth monitoring as Memphis will likely be an underdog in both its own conference tournament and if/when it makes the NCAA Basketball Tournament. They’ll need all hands on deck (and not against walls).
Miami misses Nijel Pack in a game they’d like to have back
Florida State stormed back to beat the Miami Hurricanes in a game their tournament seeding will likely want back. Florida State isn’t good this year. However, it’s important to note that K-State transfer guard Nijel Pack missed that game for Miami with a lower body injury. Watch this injury closely so that Miami doesn’t suffer anymore surprises.
Michigan plays it safe with Jett Howard’s injury, looks to get on right side of bubble
The coach’s son Jett Howard missed the Wisconsin game with an ankle injury in late February where the Wolverines nearly lost. One more loss in a close game like this might cost Michigan its tournament berth. Watch Jett Howard’s status. He is averaging 14.4 points per game for a Michigan team that can struggle at times to score.
(Missouri’s Kobe Brown out with an illness February 26th – should be short term).
Oklahoma State tournament chances on thin ice while starting center and guards out
It’s never good to have your starting center and starting guard out while you’re trying to play your way off the bubble. But that’s exactly the position that Oklahoma State finds itself in. Moussa Cisse and Anthony Anderson III are both missing time as we roll into March. Anderson’s injury might be more long-standing with him dealing with a wrist injury.
Pittsburgh wins play-in-game despite not having a center in the starting lineup
The nation learned who Federiko Federiko was on Tuesday night as the tournament tipped off with its play-in games. The Panthers center was listed as a game time decision, according to Pittsburgh Sports now, but he ended up sitting out the game while nursing a knee injury. The nation watched as the Panthers battled to win a tight one point game against Mississippi State. Jorge Diaz Graham did a nice job as a substitute center, stretching Miss St. center Tolu Smith outside of the paint. The smaller lineup worked out for Pittsburgh.
(TCU’s Eddie Lampkin Jr. out with undisclosed injury late February).
Tennessee suffers major blow with Zakai Ziegler’s injury
Ziegler’s injury leaves the Vols very thin at point guard. The Volunteers just lost Kennedy Chandler to the NBA (and Memphis Grizzlies) after a one-and-done campaign. Shooting guard Santiago Vescovi is expected to do more ball handling. Tyreke Key is also expected to get more minutes.
Wisconsin watches Chucky Hepburn’s injury status
Wisconsin’s starting point guard Chucky Hepburn missed some minutes against Michigan in a critical game to finish February. He remains on the injury report with a lower body injury. Hepburn played the last few games for the Badgers, including a first round win against Bradley in the NIT Tournament.
Xavier’s Zach Freemantle ruled out for remainder of the season
For a second straight season, Zach Freemantle’s foot is finding itself on the injury report at the most inconvenient time. As March began, the power forward was ruled out for the remainder of the season. This leaves a gaping hole in the front-court of Sean Miller’s core unit. Fellow big man Jack Nunge will now need to continue (Freemantle has been out for weeks) picking up the slack on the boards and with help defense. The power forward was enjoying the fruits of a veteran team playing winning basketball with Sean Miller’s return to the Musketeers sidelines. Xavier is a 3 seed and will play against upset-minded 14 seed Kennesaw State. Kennesaw State has surged onto the national radar with an impressive program turnaround against coach Amir Abdur-Rahim.
UCLA loses super athletic wing Jaylen Clark for the season in major postseason loss
UCLA has a major problem on its hands. Despite how consistent guards Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have been over their careers, the Bruins rely on some offense you can’t draw up. This is where Jaylen Clark has come into play. He is a great slasher, finisher, and just the type of super athletic wing who you don’t have to feed the ball to in order to get productivity. His athleticism finds a way. Clark had more than doubled his offensive productivity from a season ago and averaged 16 points a game. He gave Campbell and Jaquez a great third option in the early or late stages of a shot clock. And Clark is a great defender. Now, UCLA will head into the tournament without their most athletic wing. This is a major problem.
Bolch points to how UCLA went 6-1 while freshman guard Amari Bailey was out for a month with a foot injury. This is an apples to oranges comparison to the superior athleticism that Jaylen Clark brings on the floor. Bailey is a primary ball-handler, which UCLA already has in full supply with Tyger Campbell. Instead of thinking about Bailey as a replacement, freshman Dylan Andrews is more of the prototypical wing who Bruins fans need to look forward to stepping up.
Avoiding any chance of being upset is a good thing. That’s especially true in college basketball. On a weekend when the Super Bowl is expected to feature a tight matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles, college basketball’s conference standings are tight as well. Many important conference tournaments in college hoops have bye games for its top teams. Here’s a glance at college basketball games for Super Bowl weekend, with an eye on what teams can capture those all-important byes.
Mountain West Offers High Ceiling and High Seeding
The team that climbs to the top of the Mountain West Conference this season will reach certain heights in the college hoops landscape. The Mountain West is the fourth best conference in college basketball this year. Therefore, the conference winner will get regional preference and a top 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There will also be a pack of hikers from the league who have a high ceiling. Conversely, someone in the middle of the pack will slip and suffer a dramatic fall. Right now San Diego State is the only team from the conference that is technically “ranked” in the Top 25. The veteran team is again loaded with experienced players who can contribute 6 points or more.
The team that captures the top of the Mountain West will capture a high seed.
The second pack of teams from the conference is a force to be reckoned with. CBS Sports bracketology expert Jerry Palm has Nevada, Boise State and New Mexico all projected in the tournament on Super Bowl weekend. New Mexico just took a bad loss to Air Force on Friday night. The Lobos could be the character that slips from the rocks and falls out of the picture.
Two teams that could back-fill their position are Utah State and UNLV. Today they stand in the NET rankings at 33 and 82 respectively. UNLV is a current victim of how daunting this Mountain West conference actually is. However, when you watch them play, you recognize the high ceiling. The Runnin’ Rebels November matchup against another underrated conference team in Dayton was a good barameter for UNLVs’ potential. Former Oklahoma Sooner transfer Elijah Harmless led the way with 24 points. The Rebels have a fleet of skilled guards and a do-the-dirty work center in David Muoka who can compete with anyone at the rim.
On Saturday, UNLV gets an enormous chance to boost its tournament resume with a game at San Diego State. It’s unlikely that UNLV wins. It’s also unlikely that UNLV makes the NCAA tournament as an at large team. However, this game is a good litmus test to watch whether UNLV has its A game ready for the Mountain West Tournament. With six conference games remaining, it’s also unlikely that UNLV grabs a first round bye in the Mountain West Tournament. The Rebels were one slot short of that accomplishment last season. Right now they are four games behind Utah State in the loss column with six games left.
Big brands re-emerge in the Big East
There has been a bit of a Renaissance in the Big East. With exception of Georgetown, the big brand names remain relevant late in the season. College basketball fans were treated to a UCONN season where the Huskies were an AP Top 5 team. Sean Miller has returned to Xavier and immediately made them an AP Top 25 team. Although they are not a tournament team, even St. John’s is playing relevant basketball and perhaps looking at an NIT or a CBI bid.
However, the biggest mover right now is the Villanova Wildcats. This statement has caused a storm of debate on our Twitter page. However, with veteran guard Justin Moore back from an achilles tear in last year’s Big Dance, Villanova looks much better than its record shows.
Join the Villanova debate by following CBBEyeTest on Twitter.
The tournament committee is stubborn about a lot of things. One thing they have historically actually shown common sense about is judging a team that had a major injury. With Justin Moore back today from Achilles injury, Villanova is back in the tournament hunt as well.
Villanova was leading Creighton in Omaha on the game Justin Moore returned. They lost that one, but rebounded by beating up on Depaul. With an 11-13 record, they now play Seton Hall, Butler, Providence and Xavier next. That’s four winnable games and two Quad 1 opportunities. If they win five straight in this stretch, they will be 15-13 with an opportunity to avenge their loss against Crieghton to go to 16-13. Let’s assume they lose one more of their remaining Big East schedule. They would head into Madison Square Garden as a dangerous, experienced, battle-tested, ball security advocate in the Big East Tournament at 18-14. I don’t see the tournament committee keeping this group out of the Big Dance if they win 2 of 3 in the Big East Tournament in that scenario finishing at 20-15. That’s me. Or they could just win the Big East tournament.
The scrum of college basketball teams to grab the loose bids intensifies on Super Bowl weekend.
Cinderella can reside in the Power 5. In 2021, Georgetown surged in unlikely fashion after a horrible regular season. The Hoyas went dancing in March Madness as the Big East Tournament winner. The team had only gone 7-9 in the conference regular season and had an overall record of .500 (13-13).
Similarly, Oregon State went from an expected pre-season bottom feeder in the Pac-12, to The Elite 8.
Here are seven teams that could burst a bubble team’s dreams. It shouldn’t shock anyone who is watching college basketball to see these teams in a conference tournament championship game.
Maryland Terps 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Big Ten Conference
In an era of global turmoil, it’s safe to say that Maryland still had a rocky season. They brought in two highly touted transfers in Fatts Russell and Qudus Wahab. However, the Terps season got off to a slow turtle crawl. They lost to in-state non-rival George Mason. And Head Coach Mark Turgeon and the administration, reportedly, agreed to part ways mid-season.
Danny Manning took over as head coach. As you watch the team play, they are slowly rounding into form. A game against Nebraska in mid-February showed off their ceiling. Yes, it’s a lousy Nebraska team, but you saw freshman forward Julian Reese show off his stuff.
The roster is still beefed up with veteran players who have been in plenty of March Madness battles. Eric Ayala and Donta Scott come to mind. It was Danny Manning and the Miracles which made one of college basketball’s most magical runs ever. If some Big Ten teams get complacent during their conference tournament, it could be the Terps that go on a miraculous run.
Florida Atlantic Owls 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Conference USA
By NCAA Tournament standards, Conference USA is a major conference. Just in the last decade, look at what Middle Tennessee and North Texas have done to wreak havoc on the bracket. UAB, North Texas and even Louisiana Tech have been on the radar for modest at-large chances this season. However, the Florida Atlantic Owls are staying up late into February with relevant play in its league. In a seven game stretch over January to February, they won 6 of 7 games in conference. That includes the Owls’ dominating win against Louisiana Tech where the Owls shot 52% from the field, 45% from 3 point territory, and led by as many as 20 points.
Like many deep sleepers, this team features some sizable international talent. Its front-court features size and versatility with players from Kosovo, Russia, Senegal and Kongo all contributing.
Arizona State Sun Devils 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Pac 12 Conference
This one is simple. You cannot watch the Arizona State Sun Devils inspired play against Final 4 favorite UCLA and not be inspired to think they can go on a magical run. After an era of Arizona State pumping guards into the NBA, its powerful forwards forced the action against UCLA late. They beat the Bruins and the Oregon Ducks in February. They also scored a win against Colorado and were very competitive against an AP Top 5 team in Arizona.
Forwards like Jalen Graham are dropping double digits with regularity late in the season.
Bobby Hurley is one of the sports all-time great point guards. Perhaps he can be the floor general as head coach of the Sun Devils and lead them to a conference crown.
Utah State 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Mountain West Conference
Google the phrase college basketball elder statesman, and Brock Miller’s mug shot might pop up. This team is as aged as the sandy ledge of a mountain boarding the small town of Sandy, Utah. And they can shoot. Sure, big man Neemias Queta moved on to bigger and better things. But there’s still plenty of residue remaining to roll up a run. You could look at their record and say they’re toast. Or, you could look at their record and give props to just how good the Mountain West has been this year. Wyoming, Colorado State, and San Diego State are likely tournament teams regardless of what happens in the Mountain West Tournament. The Aggies are only middle of the pack in terms of college basketball’s best three point shooting team. On February 24th they ranked 159th in the nation with a pedestrian 34% from 3PT. However, that’s not indicative of the shooting stroke you could see from senior leaders Miller and Justin Bean. So why not let loose in Vegas and roll the dice with a bunch of bombs from downtown during Champ Week?
Last year Georgetown and Oregon State were unlikely Cinderellas from Power 5 conferences. I think unlikely teams with a similar chance to win and shock a (highly ranked) conference tournament this year includes:
Northwestern Utah State George Mason Florida Atlantic Mizzou
This list included Mizzou and Northwester weeks ago, but their play has since soured.
George Mason 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Atlantic 10
The Atlantic 10 is filled with teams that are capable of “stealing a bid.” In fact, it will likely happen. Davidson has enjoyed a lead atop the league for most of the season. However, they face stiff competition with St. Louis, VCU, Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, and George Mason, to name a few. George Mason is coached by former Mizzou baller Kim English Jr. They are a bit of a mystery, with a lots of bad losses on their record. However, they have one of the conference’s purest shooters in Colorado transfer D’Shawn Schwartz. 6-9 forward Josh Oduro is having a solid season. He averages 18 points and 7 rebounds on the season. Their wins over St. Bonaventure, Dayton and Richmond should be noted as proof this team could compete for the conference championship.
The parody of the college basketball landscape in 2022 offers no shortage of long-shots with intriguing values. Many people (including myself) consider 7 or 8 teams that could easily win it all this year. However, none of those teams look like Baylor and Gonzaga did last year. It appeared inevitable those teams would face each other in a 2021 Championship game. Instead, those favorites right now are priced in the 4-1 to 6-1 territory. That’s teams like Gonzaga and Arizona. It would be hard to swallow paying a price in the 7-1 to 18-1 territory for any of these teams without the conviction of seeing them surge the way Gonzaga and Baylor had last season.
And so when the Madness of March begins, those 7 or 8 championship contenders could get upset and the list of possible champions would grow. Below are some of my favorite long-shot value picks to find themselves in the mix. If you’re considering any of these bets, please look at both the Final Four odds in addition to a National Championship ticket. The last thing you want is to have two of the four teams make the Final Four, neither win a national championship, and for you to not cash a ticket.
Read also my favorite 14 picks ATS on Thursday and Friday by clicking here. If you are struggling to moderate your gambling, help is available. Please visit https://www.ncpgambling.org or call 1-800-522-4700 to get help anonymously.
Editor’s Notes: This article has remained intact as-is for over a month. I will stick with my gut here and roll with the teams that I had hand-picked in mid-February. Subtle edits have been made to the start of the summary for each team below.
Updated: Best Longshot Odds to win March Madness 2022
Here are 5 teams that are the best value bets right now for college basketball futures. You could call them sleeper teams, although their likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament at this point is better than them not.
Best Long-shots to win March Madness 2022 by future values
According to FanDuel Sports App, UAB will enter March Madness as a 400-1 underdog to win a national title. The Blazers earned a 12 seed and will play against Houston in the first round.
Here’s what I had written earlier in the season…
These Blazers were trailblazing their way to a regular season conference championship, until they stubbed their toes at Old Dominion on Super Bowl weekend. Its stock sunk some 50-1 points. Still, they make my top 5.
Coached by former Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy, the Blazers are as dangerous as they come. Conference USA has continued to play the disruptor role in the NCAA Tournament. And with no shortage of size on this UAB roster, the sky could quite literally be the limit.
On January 22nd the Blazers beat current conference rival LA Tech in their house, securing (for now) an inside track to its conference championship. Jordan “Jelly” Walker scored 37 points in that game. As you know, a sub 6’1″ scorer is a hallmark sign of a dangerous Cinderella program.
UAB’s stock did slip in the following days after being upset by Marshall. This puts the Blazers in jeopardy of not winning its conference regular season. Regardless, Conference USA will likely be a one bid league. Therefore, if you invest in UAB you’ll need them to win their conference tournament.
Assuming it wins its conference tournament, UAB would likely get a 12, 13 or 14 seed. That means they could play an LSU, Texas Tech, or other middle-of-the-pack team from a Power 5 school. UAB has a 7 footer at center in Clemson transfer Trey Jemison, so size won’t intimate them. The Blazers can score the ball, ranking just within the top 50 on Kenpom’s score for efficiency. If you like UAB at 250-1 to win a national title, you’re going to love them at 65-1 to make the Final 4.
Responsible sports betting is possible when a 10 cent wager can win you 6 bucks. This wager was placed January 26, 2022 and reflects the “Vegas odds” at that point.
After its dramatic game-winning buzzer beater win by Jelly Walker at Western Kentucky, UAB stood as the 41st ranked KenPom team on January 28th. Meantime, they were 37th in the NET rankings. Therefore, a legitimate case can be made for UAB as an at-large bid, even if they don’t win their conference tournament.
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4. SAN FRANCISCO DONS BASKETBALL FUTURES 250-1
San Francisco drew a 10 seed and will play against a dangerous 7 seed in Murray State. Both of these programs are actually very dangerous in this position. Murray State is an even better value from a high-ceiling perspective. They enter the tournament at 500-1 to win a title according to FanDuel.
Here’s what I had written earlier this season…
There is a clear turning point in San Francisco’s season that has it skipping the line and getting into the middle of the mix as a great long-shot. After taking a large lead in pivotal games in January against Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, San Fran squandered those opportunities to punch their tickets. However, when February came, they blitzed BYU at their house. The Dons came out of halftime and continued pressuring the (weakened) post of BYU. They got out in transition and guarded well in transition. They took the life out of the crowd. It was the opposite of what those games in January looked like, and it could be a turning point for San Francisco to be considered one of America’s most dangerous underdogs.
San Francisco is lead by super senior point guard Jamaree Bouyee. He is one of the top 6-1 and under guards poised to upset some people in March Madness. They also have size down low, which is always a challenge for mid-major teams. San Francisco was available on the DraftKings app at 60-1 to make March Madness on February 3 and it’s unlikely that value will remain for long.
San Francisco stood at 200-1 to win a National Championship (and 80-1 to make the Final Four) on DraftKings on Valentine’s Day. Betters will love them even more if they can win a late February home game against Gonzaga before the tournament begins. They missed an opportunity to beat Gonzaga late in February, but the St. Mary’s Gaels did it on that same California road trip for the Bulldogs. The WCC has the pedigree to pull some upsets in this tournament.
Davidson draws a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament and plays against Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team. That’s bad news for Wildcats fans. However, Michigan State is beatable and so is Duke in the (possible) following round. I am rolling with Davidson at 400-1 here.
Here’s what I had written earlier in the season…
At the end of January, Davidson finally cracked into the AP Top 25 and officially became the most dangerous underdog in America. After the Wildcats went undefeated in its first six conference games with wins at St. Bonaventure and at VCU, they were honestly long overdue for this position. Throw in the fact that they beat Alabama and its Elite 8 pedigree.
The problem with Davidson going into the conference tournament “Champ Week” is that it faces about 5 other teams from the Atlantic 10 that could easily steal a bid. Richmond, VCU, Dayton, St. Louis and St. Bonaventure are all worthy opponents. Most of those teams are borderline tournament teams. Davidson finished February as a projected 11 seed in the tournament. That doesn’t leave much margin for error for Davidson to lose its conference tournament. If that happens, we could be looking at two A10 tournament teams, or a damn good Davidson team in the NIT.
A tempting bet in this direction is to take the Atlantic 10 at around 65-1 to have its team with the NCAA Basketball Tournament. That’s a great value if two teams make the tournament. It’s a lousy bet if only one does.
Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer gets the headlines as people talk about this team, but it’s really an extremely balanced squad. Loyer leads the team in assists. Four players average 12 or more points. Power forward Luka Brajkovic offers great hands and skill down low. The senior from Austria averages 7 rebounds per game. Junior guard Michael Jones showed everyone during a nationally televised game against Richmond that he can light it up. Jones was un-guardable that night as he scored 29 on 8 of 9 from the 3 point line. The Wildcats leading scorer is actually South Korean guard Hyunjung Lee. Lee averages 16 points per game with 6.7 rebounds with it. The stability of this upperclassman roster is anchored by a longtime winner, head coach Bob McKillop.
In his last bracket projection of January, Joe Lunardi had Davidson has a 9 seed. This is the type of mis-seeding that often happens to a mid-major team. This Davidson program probably had no business being a 10 seed with Stephen Curry before it made its magical Elite 8 run.
And while you can debate what Davidson’s seed would be, it’s not debatable anymore that it’s a tournament team. Therefore, even if you snag Davidson at 150-1 you could hedge it by taking the eventual round one matchup (today projected as BYU as a 125-1 underdog) and have some high ceiling options headed into the field of 32.
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USC’s value doubled as the bracket got announced, which means the payout is twice as great. I am doubling down on this team as they play a smaller Miami Hurricanes squad to start their March Madness journey.
Here’s what I wrote earlier this year about the Trojans…
USC defeated Oregon in their place on February 26th to bounce the Ducks from this list and insert themselves onto it.
I will admit to overlooking USC after one of its Mobley brothers (Evan) went to the NBA this season. While Evan Mobley is the likely NBA Rookie of the Year with the Cavaliers, big brother is one of the nation’s best veteran players. The 6-10 big man features great hands, range, rebounding, and the ability to orchestrate the offense from the post. Boogie Ellis is the actual orchestrator at point guard. He transferred from Memphis. Ellis is a streaky shooter who can definitely get hot. Shooting guard Drew Peterson is playing some really confident ball right now. He hit a dagger three to win that Oregon game and also went buck-wild against UCLA in a game that Mobley missed in early February.
USC has a front line of muscular forwards who can outwork people on the offensive glass if defenses aren’t aware. Head coach Andy Enfield has already taken the college basketball world by surprise in his career (see Dunk City). This USC team was in the Elite 8 last year. Many players on the current roster played key roles in a Sweet 16 win against Oregon.
A bet worth looking at is the Pac-12 around 5-1 to have a national champion. Obviously, you’d get a favorite in Arizona, a preseason favorite in UCLA, and throw in a high-upside USC team at that rate. If a surprise team like Arizona State (see our list of possible Cinderellas for Champ Week), Colorado or Stanford win the Pac-12 tournament, you could have 4 or 5 teams for that one cost. Oregon is the unknown as a bubble team.
March Madness is all about unlikely outcomes. What is more unlikely than your coach getting fired for multiple violations stemming from an FBI investigation… and you still advance to the Final Four.
I actually love LSU as they draw Iowa State to start their March Madness journey. They would have to become the first 6 seed in 30 years to make a Final Four, however, if they have a magical run on their mind. Below is what I had written about the Tigers earlier this season…
On February 15, LSU stood at 16th overall in the NCAA Net Rankings, but still had a long-shot odd to win a national title. The Tigers were then 15-1 to reach the Final Four and 80-1 to win a national title. Those numbers don’t reflect how this team is getting healthy at the right time. Coming out of the SEC, which has two legitimate title favorites (unlike any other conference), the Tigers will be eager to devour any other competition aside from their in-conference opponents. Point guard Xavier Pinson has brought a lightning quick dimension to the offense. And this team gets after it on the defensive end unlike most teams. They are consistently top 5 in forced turnovers, defensive efficiency, and outright steals. LSU won’t come back from large deficits with three point prayers, but they might outwork their opponent on the offensive glass to get back into a game. They are mostly young and hungry, with a few key veterans like senior Darius Days. LSU has been flirting with the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 for the past few years, and shouldn’t be overlooked as players like Days and Pinson have returned from injury and are finding a rhythm. LSU plays a marquee matchup against Kentucky in late February. This can serve as a stress test to measure how legit they are. For now, the eye test says they are much better than 80-1 to win it all.
HOST CITIES FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF MARCH MADNESS 2021-2022
College Basketball Eye Test 