Cinderella can reside in the Power 5. In 2021, Georgetown surged in unlikely fashion after a horrible regular season. The Hoyas went dancing in March Madness as the Big East Tournament winner. The team had only gone 7-9 in the conference regular season and had an overall record of .500 (13-13).
Similarly, Oregon State went from an expected pre-season bottom feeder in the Pac-12, to The Elite 8.
Here are seven teams that could burst a bubble team’s dreams. It shouldn’t shock anyone who is watching college basketball to see these teams in a conference tournament championship game.
Maryland Terps 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Big Ten Conference
In an era of global turmoil, it’s safe to say that Maryland still had a rocky season. They brought in two highly touted transfers in Fatts Russell and Qudus Wahab. However, the Terps season got off to a slow turtle crawl. They lost to in-state non-rival George Mason. And Head Coach Mark Turgeon and the administration, reportedly, agreed to part ways mid-season.
Danny Manning took over as head coach. As you watch the team play, they are slowly rounding into form. A game against Nebraska in mid-February showed off their ceiling. Yes, it’s a lousy Nebraska team, but you saw freshman forward Julian Reese show off his stuff.
The roster is still beefed up with veteran players who have been in plenty of March Madness battles. Eric Ayala and Donta Scott come to mind. It was Danny Manning and the Miracles which made one of college basketball’s most magical runs ever. If some Big Ten teams get complacent during their conference tournament, it could be the Terps that go on a miraculous run.
Florida Atlantic Owls 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Conference USA
By NCAA Tournament standards, Conference USA is a major conference. Just in the last decade, look at what Middle Tennessee and North Texas have done to wreak havoc on the bracket. UAB, North Texas and even Louisiana Tech have been on the radar for modest at-large chances this season. However, the Florida Atlantic Owls are staying up late into February with relevant play in its league. In a seven game stretch over January to February, they won 6 of 7 games in conference. That includes the Owls’ dominating win against Louisiana Tech where the Owls shot 52% from the field, 45% from 3 point territory, and led by as many as 20 points.
Like many deep sleepers, this team features some sizable international talent. Its front-court features size and versatility with players from Kosovo, Russia, Senegal and Kongo all contributing.
Arizona State Sun Devils 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Pac 12 Conference
This one is simple. You cannot watch the Arizona State Sun Devils inspired play against Final 4 favorite UCLA and not be inspired to think they can go on a magical run. After an era of Arizona State pumping guards into the NBA, its powerful forwards forced the action against UCLA late. They beat the Bruins and the Oregon Ducks in February. They also scored a win against Colorado and were very competitive against an AP Top 5 team in Arizona.
Forwards like Jalen Graham are dropping double digits with regularity late in the season.
Bobby Hurley is one of the sports all-time great point guards. Perhaps he can be the floor general as head coach of the Sun Devils and lead them to a conference crown.
Utah State 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Mountain West Conference
Google the phrase college basketball elder statesman, and Brock Miller’s mug shot might pop up. This team is as aged as the sandy ledge of a mountain boarding the small town of Sandy, Utah. And they can shoot. Sure, big man Neemias Queta moved on to bigger and better things. But there’s still plenty of residue remaining to roll up a run. You could look at their record and say they’re toast. Or, you could look at their record and give props to just how good the Mountain West has been this year. Wyoming, Colorado State, and San Diego State are likely tournament teams regardless of what happens in the Mountain West Tournament. The Aggies are only middle of the pack in terms of college basketball’s best three point shooting team. On February 24th they ranked 159th in the nation with a pedestrian 34% from 3PT. However, that’s not indicative of the shooting stroke you could see from senior leaders Miller and Justin Bean. So why not let loose in Vegas and roll the dice with a bunch of bombs from downtown during Champ Week?
Last year Georgetown and Oregon State were unlikely Cinderellas from Power 5 conferences. I think unlikely teams with a similar chance to win and shock a (highly ranked) conference tournament this year includes:
Northwestern Utah State George Mason Florida Atlantic Mizzou
This list included Mizzou and Northwester weeks ago, but their play has since soured.
George Mason 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Atlantic 10
The Atlantic 10 is filled with teams that are capable of “stealing a bid.” In fact, it will likely happen. Davidson has enjoyed a lead atop the league for most of the season. However, they face stiff competition with St. Louis, VCU, Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, and George Mason, to name a few. George Mason is coached by former Mizzou baller Kim English Jr. They are a bit of a mystery, with a lots of bad losses on their record. However, they have one of the conference’s purest shooters in Colorado transfer D’Shawn Schwartz. 6-9 forward Josh Oduro is having a solid season. He averages 18 points and 7 rebounds on the season. Their wins over St. Bonaventure, Dayton and Richmond should be noted as proof this team could compete for the conference championship.
A white head coach called a timeout in the final seconds to prolong a lop-sided victory, then grabbed an African American head coach by the arm to assert his opinion in the handshake line, but many people in the college basketball universe are calling for Juwan Howard to be suspended.
Why promote Black Lives Matter campaigns during in-game commercials and with warm up apparel on the sidelines, when we can’t seriously take a look at these aggressions (and micro-aggressions) as a society?
Greg Gard grabs Juwan Howard in handshake line courtesy CBS Sports HQ
Juwan Howard took a swing at a Wisconsin coach after this ugly scene played out. No one would argue that’s a justified act. However, in what universe is it okay for Wisconsin coach Greg Gard to put his hands on Juwan Howard in the first place? Any thoughts about why that’s acceptable can only be explained by white privilege.
Imagine if the shoe were on the other foot. What if Juwan Howard called a timeout in the closing moments to avoid his backup players from temporary embarrassment. As Greg Gard explained in the post-game interview, that’s exactly why he called this unnecessary timeout. He didn’t want his offense committing a 10 second violation while being covered full court by a Michigan man defense. Taking that violation wouldn’t have affected the outcome of the game. It would have instead saved college basketball from this ugly scrum.
What if Howard had done this? Do you think Greg Gard would have stood by like a little school boy, having his arm held for a quick lecture in the handshake line? The timeout needed no explanation. Only someone who feels privileged would be compelled to compound the insult with a lecturing justification.
Even the press release by the Big Ten Conference doesn’t reference the physical contact initiated by Greg Gard. Instead, it says “The Big Ten Conference is aware of a physical altercation involving Michigan Head Coach Juwan Howard…”
Some people are calling for a season-long suspension for Juwan Howard. He did not apologize in his post-game press conference. Few are calling for the aggressor, Greg Gard, to lose his job of even face a multiple game suspension. I think an equal penalty for both coaches would reflect a society that values equality.
The parody of the college basketball landscape in 2022 offers no shortage of long-shots with intriguing values. Many people (including myself) consider 7 or 8 teams that could easily win it all this year. However, none of those teams look like Baylor and Gonzaga did last year. It appeared inevitable those teams would face each other in a 2021 Championship game. Instead, those favorites right now are priced in the 4-1 to 6-1 territory. That’s teams like Gonzaga and Arizona. It would be hard to swallow paying a price in the 7-1 to 18-1 territory for any of these teams without the conviction of seeing them surge the way Gonzaga and Baylor had last season.
And so when the Madness of March begins, those 7 or 8 championship contenders could get upset and the list of possible champions would grow. Below are some of my favorite long-shot value picks to find themselves in the mix. If you’re considering any of these bets, please look at both the Final Four odds in addition to a National Championship ticket. The last thing you want is to have two of the four teams make the Final Four, neither win a national championship, and for you to not cash a ticket.
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Editor’s Notes: This article has remained intact as-is for over a month. I will stick with my gut here and roll with the teams that I had hand-picked in mid-February. Subtle edits have been made to the start of the summary for each team below.
Updated: Best Longshot Odds to win March Madness 2022
Here are 5 teams that are the best value bets right now for college basketball futures. You could call them sleeper teams, although their likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament at this point is better than them not.
Best Long-shots to win March Madness 2022 by future values
According to FanDuel Sports App, UAB will enter March Madness as a 400-1 underdog to win a national title. The Blazers earned a 12 seed and will play against Houston in the first round.
Here’s what I had written earlier in the season…
These Blazers were trailblazing their way to a regular season conference championship, until they stubbed their toes at Old Dominion on Super Bowl weekend. Its stock sunk some 50-1 points. Still, they make my top 5.
Coached by former Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy, the Blazers are as dangerous as they come. Conference USA has continued to play the disruptor role in the NCAA Tournament. And with no shortage of size on this UAB roster, the sky could quite literally be the limit.
On January 22nd the Blazers beat current conference rival LA Tech in their house, securing (for now) an inside track to its conference championship. Jordan “Jelly” Walker scored 37 points in that game. As you know, a sub 6’1″ scorer is a hallmark sign of a dangerous Cinderella program.
UAB’s stock did slip in the following days after being upset by Marshall. This puts the Blazers in jeopardy of not winning its conference regular season. Regardless, Conference USA will likely be a one bid league. Therefore, if you invest in UAB you’ll need them to win their conference tournament.
Assuming it wins its conference tournament, UAB would likely get a 12, 13 or 14 seed. That means they could play an LSU, Texas Tech, or other middle-of-the-pack team from a Power 5 school. UAB has a 7 footer at center in Clemson transfer Trey Jemison, so size won’t intimate them. The Blazers can score the ball, ranking just within the top 50 on Kenpom’s score for efficiency. If you like UAB at 250-1 to win a national title, you’re going to love them at 65-1 to make the Final 4.
Responsible sports betting is possible when a 10 cent wager can win you 6 bucks. This wager was placed January 26, 2022 and reflects the “Vegas odds” at that point.
After its dramatic game-winning buzzer beater win by Jelly Walker at Western Kentucky, UAB stood as the 41st ranked KenPom team on January 28th. Meantime, they were 37th in the NET rankings. Therefore, a legitimate case can be made for UAB as an at-large bid, even if they don’t win their conference tournament.
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4. SAN FRANCISCO DONS BASKETBALL FUTURES 250-1
San Francisco drew a 10 seed and will play against a dangerous 7 seed in Murray State. Both of these programs are actually very dangerous in this position. Murray State is an even better value from a high-ceiling perspective. They enter the tournament at 500-1 to win a title according to FanDuel.
Here’s what I had written earlier this season…
There is a clear turning point in San Francisco’s season that has it skipping the line and getting into the middle of the mix as a great long-shot. After taking a large lead in pivotal games in January against Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, San Fran squandered those opportunities to punch their tickets. However, when February came, they blitzed BYU at their house. The Dons came out of halftime and continued pressuring the (weakened) post of BYU. They got out in transition and guarded well in transition. They took the life out of the crowd. It was the opposite of what those games in January looked like, and it could be a turning point for San Francisco to be considered one of America’s most dangerous underdogs.
San Francisco is lead by super senior point guard Jamaree Bouyee. He is one of the top 6-1 and under guards poised to upset some people in March Madness. They also have size down low, which is always a challenge for mid-major teams. San Francisco was available on the DraftKings app at 60-1 to make March Madness on February 3 and it’s unlikely that value will remain for long.
San Francisco stood at 200-1 to win a National Championship (and 80-1 to make the Final Four) on DraftKings on Valentine’s Day. Betters will love them even more if they can win a late February home game against Gonzaga before the tournament begins. They missed an opportunity to beat Gonzaga late in February, but the St. Mary’s Gaels did it on that same California road trip for the Bulldogs. The WCC has the pedigree to pull some upsets in this tournament.
Davidson draws a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament and plays against Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team. That’s bad news for Wildcats fans. However, Michigan State is beatable and so is Duke in the (possible) following round. I am rolling with Davidson at 400-1 here.
Here’s what I had written earlier in the season…
At the end of January, Davidson finally cracked into the AP Top 25 and officially became the most dangerous underdog in America. After the Wildcats went undefeated in its first six conference games with wins at St. Bonaventure and at VCU, they were honestly long overdue for this position. Throw in the fact that they beat Alabama and its Elite 8 pedigree.
The problem with Davidson going into the conference tournament “Champ Week” is that it faces about 5 other teams from the Atlantic 10 that could easily steal a bid. Richmond, VCU, Dayton, St. Louis and St. Bonaventure are all worthy opponents. Most of those teams are borderline tournament teams. Davidson finished February as a projected 11 seed in the tournament. That doesn’t leave much margin for error for Davidson to lose its conference tournament. If that happens, we could be looking at two A10 tournament teams, or a damn good Davidson team in the NIT.
A tempting bet in this direction is to take the Atlantic 10 at around 65-1 to have its team with the NCAA Basketball Tournament. That’s a great value if two teams make the tournament. It’s a lousy bet if only one does.
Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer gets the headlines as people talk about this team, but it’s really an extremely balanced squad. Loyer leads the team in assists. Four players average 12 or more points. Power forward Luka Brajkovic offers great hands and skill down low. The senior from Austria averages 7 rebounds per game. Junior guard Michael Jones showed everyone during a nationally televised game against Richmond that he can light it up. Jones was un-guardable that night as he scored 29 on 8 of 9 from the 3 point line. The Wildcats leading scorer is actually South Korean guard Hyunjung Lee. Lee averages 16 points per game with 6.7 rebounds with it. The stability of this upperclassman roster is anchored by a longtime winner, head coach Bob McKillop.
In his last bracket projection of January, Joe Lunardi had Davidson has a 9 seed. This is the type of mis-seeding that often happens to a mid-major team. This Davidson program probably had no business being a 10 seed with Stephen Curry before it made its magical Elite 8 run.
And while you can debate what Davidson’s seed would be, it’s not debatable anymore that it’s a tournament team. Therefore, even if you snag Davidson at 150-1 you could hedge it by taking the eventual round one matchup (today projected as BYU as a 125-1 underdog) and have some high ceiling options headed into the field of 32.
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USC’s value doubled as the bracket got announced, which means the payout is twice as great. I am doubling down on this team as they play a smaller Miami Hurricanes squad to start their March Madness journey.
Here’s what I wrote earlier this year about the Trojans…
USC defeated Oregon in their place on February 26th to bounce the Ducks from this list and insert themselves onto it.
I will admit to overlooking USC after one of its Mobley brothers (Evan) went to the NBA this season. While Evan Mobley is the likely NBA Rookie of the Year with the Cavaliers, big brother is one of the nation’s best veteran players. The 6-10 big man features great hands, range, rebounding, and the ability to orchestrate the offense from the post. Boogie Ellis is the actual orchestrator at point guard. He transferred from Memphis. Ellis is a streaky shooter who can definitely get hot. Shooting guard Drew Peterson is playing some really confident ball right now. He hit a dagger three to win that Oregon game and also went buck-wild against UCLA in a game that Mobley missed in early February.
USC has a front line of muscular forwards who can outwork people on the offensive glass if defenses aren’t aware. Head coach Andy Enfield has already taken the college basketball world by surprise in his career (see Dunk City). This USC team was in the Elite 8 last year. Many players on the current roster played key roles in a Sweet 16 win against Oregon.
A bet worth looking at is the Pac-12 around 5-1 to have a national champion. Obviously, you’d get a favorite in Arizona, a preseason favorite in UCLA, and throw in a high-upside USC team at that rate. If a surprise team like Arizona State (see our list of possible Cinderellas for Champ Week), Colorado or Stanford win the Pac-12 tournament, you could have 4 or 5 teams for that one cost. Oregon is the unknown as a bubble team.
March Madness is all about unlikely outcomes. What is more unlikely than your coach getting fired for multiple violations stemming from an FBI investigation… and you still advance to the Final Four.
I actually love LSU as they draw Iowa State to start their March Madness journey. They would have to become the first 6 seed in 30 years to make a Final Four, however, if they have a magical run on their mind. Below is what I had written about the Tigers earlier this season…
On February 15, LSU stood at 16th overall in the NCAA Net Rankings, but still had a long-shot odd to win a national title. The Tigers were then 15-1 to reach the Final Four and 80-1 to win a national title. Those numbers don’t reflect how this team is getting healthy at the right time. Coming out of the SEC, which has two legitimate title favorites (unlike any other conference), the Tigers will be eager to devour any other competition aside from their in-conference opponents. Point guard Xavier Pinson has brought a lightning quick dimension to the offense. And this team gets after it on the defensive end unlike most teams. They are consistently top 5 in forced turnovers, defensive efficiency, and outright steals. LSU won’t come back from large deficits with three point prayers, but they might outwork their opponent on the offensive glass to get back into a game. They are mostly young and hungry, with a few key veterans like senior Darius Days. LSU has been flirting with the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 for the past few years, and shouldn’t be overlooked as players like Days and Pinson have returned from injury and are finding a rhythm. LSU plays a marquee matchup against Kentucky in late February. This can serve as a stress test to measure how legit they are. For now, the eye test says they are much better than 80-1 to win it all.
HOST CITIES FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF MARCH MADNESS 2021-2022
In college basketball’s regular season, top 10 match-ups rarely live up to their billing, but Arizona and UCLA looked like an Elite 8 game.
BY MATTY D.
UCLA hosted the game as the AP 7th ranked team in the nation. After only losing once this season, Arizona entered the game as the 3rd ranked team by the AP. With USC and Oregon finding its tournament resume footing, both teams are part of a PAC-12 Conference that has several dangerous threats for a Final 4.
Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd entered the game as the clear-cut front runner for coach of the year. The longtime Gonzaga Bulldogs assistant coach is leading his Wildcats to a 16-1 record as a first time head man.
Arizona vs. UCLA First Half Recap NCAA Basketball
The starting lineups for each team featured subtle different wrinkles as compared to their norm. Lithuanian big man for Arizona, Azuolas Tubelis, started the game on the bench because he was nursing a sprained ankle. He came in shortly after the game started and contributed immediately.
Jaylen Clark missed the game for UCLA after suffering an injury at practice, according to the ESPN telecast.
UCLA went with a “smaller” starting lineup, considering that Rutgers transfer and center Myles Johnson wasn’t in the starting lineup. UCLA went with Riley, Juzang, Jaquez Jr., Campbell and Bernard.
The start of the game showcased exactly why these are two Final 4 caliber teams. The shooting was electric. Both teams raced up and down the floor. UCLA point guard Tyger Campbell and shooting guard Johnny Juzang would probe the paint and then secure points. Arizona’s blossoming pro prospect Bennedict Mathurin would answer with a perfect posture three point shot. Each team started the game shooting at an unsustainably high percentage.
ESPN color commentator Bill Walton was on the call. He aptly described the game, multiple times, as a showcase of athletes in top physical fitness. This game started as a track meet.
After the electric start, Arizona suffered the first scoring drought of the game. They found themselves in a 36-25 hole after going 3 for 21 from the field during one stretch.
Arizona stopped the bleeding in terms of scoring droughts with its size down low. Oumar Ballo and Christian Koloko scored on a put-back and alley-oop styled layup respectively. Pelle Larsson then raced down the floor for a full court layup drill to cut the halftime lead to 40-29 UCLA.
Arizona vs. UCLA Second Half Recap NCAA Basketball
The second half started with Arizona eagerly double-teaming Johnny Juzang and feeding Christian Koloko in the post. Koloko missed hook shots on consecutive possessions as both teams started cold from the field.
Jaimie Jaquez scored his first points of the game to tie UCLA’s biggest lead of 15 at 44-29.
Bennedict Mathurin rushed the ball back down the floor for a do-it-yourself and-1 to cut the lead to 12. Johnny Juzang took the same approach with a one-man-fast-break against the half court defense after a free throw make.
Both UCLA and Arizona alternated between clubs that wanted to play half court offense and transition showtime. The on-ball pressure was also ratcheted up by both teams.
The game started to slow down around the 14 minute mark with each team getting to the free throw line more. Bennedict Mathurin was barking encouragement at his teammates. He fed Tubelis on a lob for a close range layup attempt where he was fouled. On the next possession, Mathurin hit a step back three pointer to cut the deficit to 10.
UCLA continued with the same four guards and forwards in the rotation, alternating Myles Johnson into the game around that 14 minute mark.
Jaime Jaquez continued getting hot as he drove the lane and scored after pump faking two defenders out of the picture. UCLA led 58-46 athe the 11 minute mark when Juzang drove the lane and fed Johnson for an and-1 bucket down low.
Scoring came to a screeching halt around the 10 to 8 minute marks. Finally, it looked like fatigued settled in slightly.
Senior UCLA guard David Singleton got some rare minutes around the 7 minute mark when he hit a three pointer. Jules Bernard doubled-down with another 3 for UCLA on the next possession. It looked like the dagger. Jaime Jaquez blocked his second shot (team’s 7th block) on the next defensive possession.
Arizona suffered its second long scoring drought around the mid-way point of the second half. The Wildcats missed 12 of 13 shots in one stretch. Guard Kerr Kriisa was 0 for 9 from the 3 point line as Arizona looked like it was taking some desperation shots. Azuolas Tubelis played limited minutes late as Justin Kier provided some scoring.
UCLA grew and sustained the lead for a final score of 75-59.
After watching the Arizona Wildcats versus the UCLA Bruins, you should be buying stock in both teams.
There is a rich history of 6 footish (and under) guards who were set to upset March Madness when their number was called. Here are some of the dangerous scorers who may be overlooked, quite literally, by their competition.
The saying normally goes, “he only needs an inch” to score. And while watching the Tar Heels try to triple team Alex Hunter around the 3 point line earlier this season, I thought: “maybe he just needs a centimeter” to score.
Hunter shoots 46% from the field and 43 percent from the 3 point line. He creates space with ease in a James Harden-like step back dribble. Hunter scored 17 against Louisville, 30 against UNC, and 21 against Mississippi State in the 2021-2022 campaign. So he welcomes the big moment.
Hunter also averages north of 3 assists per game.
I warned you guys about this dude Alex Hunter at #Furman now he is putting a real scare in Chapel Hill. #UNC#Tarheels double teaming him at the 3pt line because they’re tied up at half!!! pic.twitter.com/lVPP87qedJ
Jamaree Bouyee is a super senior who, like a fine wine, has been chilling and ready to show his game has gotten better with age. Saying someone can score in all three levels is cliche. Bouyee has that old cliche on lockdown. He can dance around the three point line to create his own show. Bouyee is solid shooting the ball off a screen in a midrange. And he has been seen to start and finish his own fast break.
The San Francisco Dons are part of a very strong WCC conference. You could say the league is stronger than the ACC. The Dons and their two guards emulate another West Coast backcourt in the Portland Trailblazers with Lillard and McCollum. Bouyee’s backcourt mate Khalil Shabazz is another dangerous scoring combo guard.
He scored 29 against Ohio State and then 26 against Florida en route to a Sweet 16 berth. With Oral Roberts tangling with some other Summit League opponents in conference this season, he has somehow slipped off the radar.
#OralRoberts takes a modest 6-5 record into conference play, but Max Abmas settles right back into Summit League conference play. He scored 22 in the first half and just hit a dagger 3 late at South Dakota. (Tasos Kamateros looked great for the Coyotes). pic.twitter.com/Y2CQsBBA08
Watching Darius McGhee is like watching Spud Webb with a modern step-back 3 point jump shot in his arsenal. McGhee has an insanely high vertical leap and can attack the rim with bad intentions. Yet, he shoots 41 percent from the 3pt line (Spud averaged 31% over his NBA career.).
Read about 5 value picks to win the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship from a website that produced 5 of 6 long-shot picks last season.
Last season, this website identified 6 value picks to win the tournament at an average of 392-1 odds. Five of those teams made the tournament and one of those teams made the Final Four after starting the season as a 50-1 underdog.
Watch Matty D’s prediction for this season below and get your hedging hat on in March!
The favorite of the underdogs is Louisiana Tech, starting the season at 200-1.
Big man Kenny Lofton Jr. is a big reason why the Bulldogs are a good value bet. He led the USA Men’s Basketball U19 team to a Gold performance this summer. His game resembles the girth and footwork of other college basketball legends, such as Glen “Big Baby” Davis. Watch some of Lofton Jr’s highlights from the summer in the link below. And be sure to see the other 4 picks as great futures values in our season preview.
As the country slowly re-opens while more states have legalized sports betting, here are tips for betting March Madness on a budget.
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What is the eye test? Here, the eye test means that you celebrate and respect the nuances on the basketball floor that can’t be seen in a stat sheet. A defender can affect an offensive set without a block or steal, a senior can hold an underclassmen accountable with tough love, and a hockey assist can set up a game winning basket. The collegebasketballeyetest.com is dedicated to retweeting and sharing first hand observations, whether that’s from fans inside the arena or watching all the action on television during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Here is a list of the most important players in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, according to the eye test over the stat sheet. In other words, here are the glue guys propelling the best teams in America. Enjoy our starting 5.
PG Joel Ayayi, Gonzaga
In today’s college basketball landscape, with the popularity of “one-and-dones” and “the transfer portal,” it takes a special player to commit to being an upperclassmen at a winning program. Enter Joel Ayayi who entered his junior year at a newly cemented blue blood program, Gonzaga. Ayayi did well in his sophomore campaign as a starting point guard, but still had room to grow. And so when other point guards entered the equation, many other players might have become a flight risk to guarantee playing time. Joel Ayayi stayed. And he proved that he can run among future lottery pick Jalen Suggs and newcomer transfer Andrew Nembhard. Ayayi can control a game with the way he defensive rebounds from the guard position and gets this dangerous offense into instant mode on the other end. His efficiency in the areas of free throw percentage and three pointers has only improved. He has great hands to harass and poke the ball from opponents in the post. Joel Ayayi has elite speed when dribbling. When you think of “getting downhill,” this guy comes to mind. It shouldn’t be a surprise if Ayayi cashes in a triple double in the tournament because his ten points are almost guaranteed and because of the way he rebounds. Consider this: he grabbed 18 rebounds in the game against Iowa and also finished with 6 assists and 11 points. I mean, that’s Iowa! Joel Ayayi is the glue guy we need running any successful Glue Guy All Star Team.
Joel Ayayı will rebound, lead transition, defend, and/or score his way into the All Glue Guy Team.
SG Da’Monte Williams, Illinois
One of the secrets to Illinois’s success this season has been the certainty of the rotation. Senior shooting guard Da’Monte Williams started the season at shooting guard, but slid to the bench mid-way into the season to make room for freshmen Adam Miller and Andre Curbello, who started to accumulate more minutes. Did Williams complain? No. He only responded by continuing to check the other team’s most dangerous wing scorer, rebound on all areas of the floor, and take an open 3 pointer with no hesitation to expose teams that haven’t scouted properly. Williams is a strong shooting guard who can help out in a variety of ways in the post. He can have a mean streak on the floor, ripping balls away from opponents and showing lots of fire at both ends. Da’Monte Williams is the type of player championship teams need. Entering the tournament, he should be proud of co-leading the Illini program that he helped re-establish with a 1 seed.
My eye test reveals this "glue guy" starting 5 from the top 25: PG Joel Ayayi of #Gonzaga, SG Da'Monte Williams of #Illinois, SF Kyle Young at #OhioState, F Jonathan "Every Day John" Tchamwa Tchatchoua of #Baylor, and C Myles Johnson of #Rutgers!
The midseason All Glue Guy Team differed slightly from the final roster.
SF Jordan Schakel, San Diego State
Jordan Schakel might be the Aztecs starting shooting guard, but we are slotting him into the all glue guy team here at small forward. At 6 foot 6, Schakel can confuse the opponent with exactly which position he does play. When starting forward and fellow senior Matt Mitchell was out with injury this mid-season, Schakel picked up the slack in terms of scoring. And so Schakel offers flexibility for the roster. Aztec fans tell me on Twitter that he has started 20 games this season at the shooting guard spot, but can play small forward as well.
Jordan Schakel’s San Diego Aztecs team made it comfortably into March Madness as a 6 seed after winning the Mountain West.
Schakel is third in the nation in 3 point efficiency. He has a knack for knowing when to double the post. Schakel can be seen calling out plays on the defensive end like a veteran linebacker. Jordan Schakel doesn’t block a lot of shots, but when you watch him you’ll see that he contests everything. He plays 29 minutes a game and has reached the 24 point plateau in four games this season. But as you watch him play, you realize he never hunts shots. Still, he averages 14 points per game which is up 4 points from his junior year. This guy is a selfless example on the court and epitomizes what it means to be a glue guy.
Aztecs senior Jordan Schakel rushes over to help with a double team and sticks with the All Glue team.
PF Kyle Young, Ohio State
Kyle Young ended the season in concussion protocol. The Ohio State Buckeyes need their glue guy if they’re going to advance to a Final Four. Young rebounds, defends the best post player most times, can knock down threes, and definitely shows the best hustle among all the glue guys nationally. Young is the type of player that wins over a neutral crowd with his hustle. It’s too bad that he’s in concussion protocol and that there isn’t a neutral crowd of people this year. Still, Kyle Young is a slam dunk for the All Glue Guy team.
Myles Johnson is cool under pressure and snags the rebound or blocks a shot when his Rutgers team really needs it. He is the prototypical last line of defense that can erase mistakes up front. Moreover, he is just a great player and a total teammate. You can even look to what his leadership has been doing off the court. Myles Johnson has a long wing-span and uses it perfectly for outlet passes and passes from the post. When doing so, he looks like an Olympic Athlete in water polo. His arm slings back and his body patiently buoys before making the right play. He never see him sweat or the paddling underneath. Johnson is a favorite to watch. His effort, rebounding and timely plays are to be admired. In this year’s Big 10, you almost needed a legitimate center to compete for an NCAA bid. Myles Johnson rounds out the All Glue Guy Team with a lot of class.
Myles Johnson rounds out the All Glue Guy Team for 2020-2021 Men’s College Basketball at center.
The full body caricatures were designed by the artist Eilvain on Fiverr.com.
When it comes to college basketball experts, I am the 15 seed. I play with an independent league of opinionated amateurs on Facebook and Twitter, but I am also the budget bettor that no sports book “wants to see” in its bracket. There’s no major sponsor or platform here.
Now that we got that out of the way, let’s roll into my official picks for March Madness 2021!
Predictions for the NCAA Men’s Basketball West Region
When it comes to this West Region, I agree with CBS’s Gary Parrish. There is no imagination coming from the committee when you have the possibility of rematches between Gonzaga and either/all of Kansas, Iowa, and/or Virginia. And that’s why I think only one of those rematches will happen: the most important one. This is also why I think Iowa is the first sexy futures bet at 16-1 as of March 16th. A rematch is always tricky for any victor. And in the December showdown between Iowa and Gonzaga, the Hawkeyes were simply blown out. Although Iowas has since lost Jack Nunge, the cliche is true when you can say they are “battle tested” by a historically great Big 10. I mean, to put the greatness of the Big 10 into context, this COVID-19 shortened season still cost the jobs of Indiana coach Archie Miller and 8 year head man at Minnesota, Richie Pitino. But I digress. Iowa can legitimately beat Gonzaga, I would comofortably have them covering any 2-3 possession line, but I have to go with Jalen Suggs and Gonzaga to advance.
Everyone is picking against Creighton, and they clearly had a rough start to the month of March. But maybe they’ll be the team that goes in like a lamb and out like a lion. Its win against a popular UConn team showed us what telnet they have. I am also taking Ohio because Jason Preston is someone I cannot root against. As ESPN documented in the game telecasts, he lost his mother as a 16-year-old to cancer. And he plays like the moniker says, “life is short.” His imagination passing the ball and risk taking could capture the nation’s imagination. That’s the emotional side of my brain on that pick. The logical side of my brain also says that UVA is having a rough patch with COVID-19 scares and may not even play the game as the 4 seed there.
The West Region can include a Sweet 16 of two Pac-12 teams
Oregon and USC will represent the PAC-12 well in this region. Each had disappointing losses in the conference tournament, but should not be the judge of how talented each team is.
Predictions for the NCAA Men’s Basketball East Region
I watched Colorado and Texas all season. They’re too talented to come up short in this tournament. And I also watched Saint Bonaventure shred VCU in the A-10 Championship game. That game was not as close as the score would lead you to believe. I have major upsets happening in this region, because you’re not truly picking a March Madness bracket without the madness part. I will have 9 seed advance to the Elite 8 and 3 seed Texas represent the region in the Final Four.
The triangles that you see on my bracket are the underdogs who I like to cover the point spread along the way.
Predictions for the NCAA Men’s College Basketball South Region
When you look at the history of the bracket, the cumulative total when you add up all the seed number is the Final Four is normally almost always 10 or more. And so this is where I am picking the hometown team Purdue Boilermakers to represent the South region as the highest seed to enter the Final Four and get my cumulative seed count up to 10 exactly. Everyone and their mom expects UNC’s size and muscle to give Baylor a run for their money. But I am looking a step ahead and saying that Purdue’s size will actually give Baylor trouble, paired with the Boilermakers outstanding freshmen class. Players like Jaden Ivey just haven’t gotten enough publicity this season. I expect this team to be March Madness-ready after, again, the rigors of the Big 10 Conference have prepared them.
I also like 6 seeds to show up in the Sweet 16 this year and won’t be surprised if one of them break into the Final Four. A 6 seed hasn’t made the Final Four since 1991-1992 with the Fab Five.
Predictions for the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Midwest Region
The committee did Illinois no favors in its draw. If we are looking for a 1 seed to have a difficult time, I think this would be the region for it. And who better to spoil the party than Cinderella herself, Loyola Chicago and Sister Jean? I would love to see a field of 32 matchup between Cam Krutwig and Kofi Cockburn. It would harken back to my childhood and watching giants tussle in the WWE (formerly WWF). Here are 8 other field of 32 player matchups I am hoping to see.
If Illinois avoids a field of 32 upset from a scrappy Georgia Tech or Ramblers bunch, they have #1 overall NBA pick Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State to look forward (potentially).
Texas wins the National Tittle among a Final 4 of Houston, Purdue and Gonzaga.
A team often overlooked is Houston because it plays in the American Athletic Conference (which got weaker with UConn’s exit). I also think the college basketball powers to be aren’t trying to promote Kelvin Sampson, a once-disgraced coach for NCAA infractions. However, with the shooting stroke of Quentin Grimes, return of Fabian White, and a great balance among other upper/underclassmen in the rotation, I think this team is destined for the Final Four. They return really the entire nucleus from a canceled 2019-2020 season with exception of Caleb Mills.
The bracket is in. And, as always, a bunch of couch potatoes like myself are predicting the future. And if my Crystal Ball is on point this season, below are a bunch of second round matchups that would be extra fun to watch.
This would be the David versus Goliath, Three Point Competition Edition. Gonzaga is the #1 overall seed in March Madness. Corey Kispert is their golden boy three point shooter who can go on a tear. However, Michael Almonacy at App State shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to his three point efficiency. Check out our top 8 sharpshooters in the tourney.
7. DJ Burns vs. Trevion Williams
If Winthrop upsets Villanova and rolls into the field of 32, they could have a matchup against Purdue. And that would pin two heavyweights against each other. Trevion Williams had shed some pounds after coming into the Purdue program a few years ago. DJ Burns might have ticked up a few pounds during this COVID-19 off-season. Whatever the pre-fight weigh in might be, watching these two athletic whirling dervishes down low would be amazing. DJ Burns is coming off a Conference Championship game where he looked like Zach Randolph with his rolling around the paint and sticking quick left-handed hook shots. Williams almost completed a massive comeback victory against Ohio State in the Big 10 tournament. And so both these big boys come rolling into the Big Dance.
6. Moses Moody vs. Mac McClung
If you like shooting guards who can score, this matchup would be for you. Mac McClung is a YouTube sensation for his dunks. Moses Moody is probably an NBA Lottery pick next year. Each guy can fill it up. And each team feeds them when they’re hot. This would be a classic 3 vs. 6 seed matchup, in where whichever team’s highest scorer gets hot late might just advance.
5. Franck Kepnang vs. Luka Garza
Franck Kepnang is from Cameroon and just reclassified in high school so that he can be playing for Oregon this season (and in this tournament). Meanwhile, Luka Garza is from the nation’s capital, a national player of the year, and 22-years-old. If you think experience always wins, this might be a game where your theory gets a scare. Kepnang is an enforcer on the defensive end and definitely doesn’t look like he should be a high school senior at this point. It could be fun to watch the 6-11 freshman battle the 6-11 senior. That is, if things play according to script and the 2 seed takes on the 7 seed.
Photo courtesy GoDucks.com
4. Cameron Krutwig vs. Kofi Cockburn
See, if you’re a fan of the NBA, you might think the traditional post up big man is extinct. Yet, this would be another fantastic matchup of two mammoth men. Cameron Krutwig was a starter on the Loyola Chicago team that made a Cinderella Final 4 run in 2018. Cockburn is a player who has slowly progressed for an Illinois team that earned its place as a #1 seed. These guys are, again, players who their teams know to feed when it’s evidence they’re hungry down low. Help defenders might need some armor in this one.
3. James Bouknight vs. Jahvon Quinerly
Both of these guards are silky smooth and surrounded with other talented guards in their respective backcourts. If 2 seed Alabama plays 7 seed UConn, you might see what equates to pickup basketball highlights here. Quinerly is another YouTube star because of his handles and finger rolling. Bouknight has a ridiculous wingspan for a guard and uses it to finish while seemingly staying in the air forever. These guys would have been a mainstay matchup in the Big East had Quinerly stayed at Villanova. Now we might be treated to this matchup if each team holds its end of the bargain on the first round of games.
2. Kai Jones vs. Aaron Henry
Doesn’t it feel like destiny that Michigan State will advance and play another mainstay NCAA team? How about a second round matchup between 3 seed Texas and 11 seed Michigan State? Aaron Henry is an established forward for Michigan State who can guard, defend, rebound, do it all. Kai Jones is like a track-and-field athlete with a basketball in his hand. He can run for days and finish strong on a fast break. As a freshman, he is already talked about as a top NBA pick. It would be fascinating to watch Tom Izzo’s team try and clog down this game, and athletes like Kai Jones at Texas. It’s how the Spartans got into the tournament: slowing the games down and playing a more physical brand of basketball. With Aaron Henry having played in the national championship game two years ago, he is the type of player who it would be fascinating to watch display his game savvy over some of the lesser experienced top prospects with the Longhorns.
Scottie Barnes vs. McKinley Wright IV
Scottie Barners is the modern NBA point guard. He’s a freshman and about 6-7. So he looks like a point forward, but he is transitioning well into a role for Florida State as a point guard (he did not play the position in high school). On the opposite end of the origin story spectrum, senior McKinley Wright IV may look like an undersized point guard to an NBA scout, but his heart and determination are like Kobe Bryant. Don’t sell Wright IV and his Colorado Buffs short because they lost to Oregon State in the PAC 12 Championship game. These things happen in college basketball and, besides, Colorado was clearly celebrating its semifinal victory against USC. And so they just had a let down game. This would be a matchup between point guards that you could look back on 10 or 15 years from now with at least one if not both of these guys making a day job for themselves on the next level.
College Basketball Eye Test 