Parody, the primary ingredient that makes college basketball amazing, could be spoiling right in front of our very eyes. It’s the ingredient that allows for a team ranked outside of the top 100 make for a memorable Thursday in mid-March.
Last year, we watched all 1 seeds make the Final Four for the first time in nearly 20 years.
This year, we are seeing a historic streak where the basketball season is beginning with ranked teams pitching a shutout against unranked teams.
This streak is crazy…
We’ve officially hit the longest stretch in AP Poll history 😳
Even with ranked teams continuing their perfect record against unranked opponents, the season has already delivered moments where the upset alarm blared loud enough to make everyone look twice. In early November, Towson pushed No. 3 Houston deep into the second half before a late 13–2 run finally gave the Cougars breathing room. UC Irvine nearly stunned No. 7 Arizona, leading for long stretches until Koa Peat’s late-game heroics bailed the Wildcats out in Tucson. Charleston had No. 12 Alabama tied inside the final four minutes before the Tide’s depth finally separated. Even mid-majors like Vermont (vs. Tennessee) and Saint Peter’s (vs. Villanova) hung around into crunch time, keeping the score within a single possession late. All of these games flirted with becoming the season’s first true shocker—yet every time, the ranked favorite found a solution. Those close calls highlight how thin the margin has been, but they also underscore the larger storyline: even when threatened, the top teams simply refuse to fall.
The Rich Getting Richer Makes for a Poorer Experience for the Non-Power Schools
In the NIL era, the old saying “the rich get richer” has never felt more literal in college basketball. Money has always mattered, but now it speaks with a megaphone. The programs with deep-pocketed collectives, national brands, and massive donor networks are stacking even more advantages on top of their already dominant positions. Top-50 recruits who might have once chosen high-mid-majors for immediate playing time are now opting for Power 5 schools because the financial opportunity simply isn’t comparable. Even proven mid-major stars in the transfer portal are being pulled upward by six-figure offers and long-term visibility that only the biggest programs can provide. The result is a consolidation of talent at the sport’s wealthiest institutions—where depth charts resemble NBA benches and even the “role players” were once featured options somewhere else. As NIL accelerates this talent migration, the power dynamic continues tightening around a small handful of resource-heavy schools, making the upset landscape feel thinner than ever.
Another dynamic is clearly missing from the college game There are nearly no scenarios where the nucleus of mid-major programs are cultivating with each other, and delivering results, within a four year window. If you think of the Wichita State teams from the early 2010s, there was a senior leadership that blended young stars (like Fred Van Fleet) and then blossomed come tournament time. The Butler Bulldogs of that same era grew as a unit with a mix of one or two NBA prospects with a remainder of just solid 4 year college basketball players.
Once a player does excel at the mid-major level, he jumps squarely onto everyone’s radar and therefore, likely, into the transfer portal.
Oscar Clufff is a rare case of a player journey from major, to minor, to a major conference once again.
The transfer portal has become more important than the traditional course of coaches recruiting from high schools. Look at 247sports.com listing of the top 100 players to transfer ahead of the 2025-2026 season. You’ll see the litany of instances to where a power school robs from the fruits of the mid-major level labors.
UCLA and Arizona showed a loyalty to the spirit of college basketball that not even the Pac-12 or Big10 conference could. Those two traditional college basketball powers prioritized a non-conference matchup with each other. This continues a great tradition, despite conference realignment that has shredded at the fabric of the sport.
As for the game between Arizona and UCLA, it delivered. And it was one of many consequential matchups between teams 1) looking to build a tournament resume OR 2) get a 1 or 2 seed.
Arizona outlasts UCLA in star-studded early season matchup
As for the game between Arizona and UCLA, it delivered. The Wildcats struck first with a flurry of transition buckets, but UCLA countered with a poised half-court approach that slowed the tempo and kept things tight. The difference came late, when Arizona leaned on its length and timely shot-making to pull away. It was the type of November game that felt like March—two proud programs trading punches and revealing both strengths and flaws that will matter months from now.
Montiejas Krivas was the x-factor in this one, as there were no answers for the 7-2 Lithuanian during some important stretches.
Gonzaga gets tough against an aspiring upset-minded Arizona State
Graham Ike showed an ability to take a punch and answer a serious shot from an upset-minded underdog. Arizona State has notoriously been a volatile bunch under the leadership of head coach Bobby Hurley. The Sun Devils can be hot as hell. They can also scorch themselves with foolish play. On this Friday night, Arizona State came out swinging and put up a nice run to start the game. Ike, a transfer who took his talents from Wyoming to Spoke two years ago, put up 20 points looking like an NBA prospect down low doing it.
Duke Overwhelms Indiana State with High-Powered Offensive Burst
Duke wasted no time imposing its talent on Indiana State. The Blue Devils came out flying, pushing tempo and getting early paint touches that broke the game open before halftime. What stood out most was how crisp the ball movement was — extra passes, kick-outs, and decisive drives that left the Sycamores scrambling. Duke’s depth also showed, as fresh legs kept the pressure high and the score climbing. By the time the second half settled in, Duke had full command and never looked back, showcasing the type of offensive ceiling that can dominate on any given night.
Michigan grinds out a tough win over TCU in a possession-by-possession battle
Michigan and TCU played one of the most competitive games of the night, a true rock fight that demanded execution on every trip. Both teams traded short runs but neither could fully separate, making the final minutes a test of poise. Michigan’s physicality on the glass and timely rim protection proved to be the difference, as the Wolverines finally strung together a few stops to clinch it. TCU showed resilience throughout, but Michigan’s ability to close late — especially against a veteran-heavy Horned Frogs lineup — was the defining moment of a well-earned road victory.
Other notable results shape the night across college basketball
Plenty of action beyond the headliners shifted the early-season landscape. Georgia quietly improved to 4-0 by taking down in-state rival Georgia Tech, a win that reinforces the Bulldogs’ steady climb under their current regime. Meanwhile, UCF pulled off one of the night’s biggest surprises by upsetting Texas A&M, a result that could age very well if the Knights continue trending upward. Taken together, these outcomes added another layer to what’s becoming a highly competitive and unpredictable start to the college basketball season.
An impressive roster of freshmen are jumping onto the college basketball scene in 2025-2026 and a few of them have familiar names from NBA greats.
The LeBron, Carmelo Era officially ending as active players as sons take the reins
The 2025 college basketball season is full of exciting storylines, especially from famous basketball families whose sons are now making their own names on the court. One of the biggest examples is Kiyan Anthony, the talented son of Carmelo Anthony. His success reminds fans of the 2003 NBA Draft, when his dad and LeBron James began their legendary careers. Now, over twenty years later, that moment feels like a distant memory as their kids and other second-generation stars bring fresh energy and talent to college basketball today.
The lineage of game-changing forwards continues to flourish across Division 1 ball
Carlos Boozer and Dominique Wilkins may have played in different eras of the NBA, but their sons enter a new generation of outstanding freshman talent across the college basketball landscape.
Georgia forward Jake Wilkins (21) during Georgia’s game against Morehead State at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens, Ga., on Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025. Photo courtesy Conor Dillon/UGAAA/On3.com
Dominique Wilkins’ son treating Georgia to familiar highlight films, again
The Human Highlight Film, Dominique Wilkins’ greatness maybe best on display during his heyday and epic battle against Michael Jordan in the 1988 NBA Dunk contest. Like many who battled against Jordan in that era, he never won a title, but his mark on the game will be everlasting.
That unbreakable legacy is being renewed right now by the same fresh legs and sporty number 21 still jumping out of gyms in and around Atlanta. Georgia’s Jake Wilkins looks just like pops.
Watch Wilkins make a mockery of an early season contest in the 2025 campaign as he channeled his father for a nostalgic windmill slam:VIDEO POSTED BY ESPN.
Carlos Boozer’s son looks to repeat a championship legacy at Duke
To watch the 2000-2001 Duke Blue Devils highlights on YouTube is like watching an NBA team from that same time period. We’re talking about a starting five that could have included Jay Williams, Dahntay Jones, Chris Duhon, Shane Battier, and Carlos Boozer. Oh, and Mike Dunleavy may be coming off the bench.
Now, Carlos Boozer’s son Cameron is riling up the Cameron Crazies as he attempts to repeat a family legacy: winning a national basketball championship.
Peja Stojaković’s DNA to score from anywhere passed down to Illinois Basketball
One of the best shooters of the modern NBA also has a son in college basketball. Peja Stojaković is regarded as one of the greatest shooters in NBA history, having made 1,760 three-point field goals in his career; this total ranked fourth all-time upon his retirement from the NBA. Stojaković won an NBA championship with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011.
Now, his son is a leading score for the certain tournament team in Illinois. Andrej Stojakovic actually played his first two college basketball seasons at Cal, but will finally see the light of day in the NCAA Tournament as he transferred to the Illini before the start of this season.
Andre Iguodala’s Son Playing for the Baylor Bears in College Basketball
Andre Iguodala’s impressive 19 year NBA career came to an end only two short years before his son started playing college hoops. Andre Iguodala II started his Division I career on the injury report with the Baylor Bears as a redshirt freshman. He should take some self-care advice from his pops. If Iguodala junior sips from that fountain of youth that his father discovered, he should be thriving on the court in no time.
Imagine: If Iguodala the Second does follow in his father’s footsteps, the NBA could have an Iguodala playing in the NBA in 84.4% of a 45 year stretch. This might be the eye test dot com, but that’s some fun data to throw around!
It’s also ironic that an Iguodala makes this list opposite of LeBron James’ son. James and Iguodala senior had some epic battles against each other as the Cleveland Cavaliers faced the Golden State Warriors in three consecutive NBA Finals. Iguodala won the series in that matchup, earning a Final MVP Award in the process.
LeBon James raises another son who makes it into Division 1 basketball
While LeBron has played as teammates with his older son Bronny, Bryce James is still enjoying his underclassmen years at basketball power, Arizona.
D.J. Wagner takes NBA pedigree to more of a leadership role at Arkansas The grandson of NBA veteran Milt Wagner and son of former pro Dajuan Wagner, D.J. is continuing his family legacy at Arkansas Razorbacks under coach John Calipari. In the 2024-25 season he started all 36 games, averaged 11.2 points, 2.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists, and led the team in assists on 16 occasions. He’s embraced more of a facilitator role while still showing scoring ability, and heading into 2025-26 he’s been recognized by the SEC media (preseason All-SEC third team) as a key piece of Arkansas’s plans. Arkansas Razorbacks While his shooting numbers haven’t yet turned into elite efficiency, Wagner’s role as lead guard and his family pedigree keep the spotlight on him — especially as the Razorbacks look to make noise in March.
Assistant Coaches Oversee Sons Carrying Family Legacies
Perhaps missing from this list could be a few 11th or 12th men on Division 1 benches who are not only the sons of an NBA player, but that player is now coaching them as an assistant. See, for example, Howard Eisley Jr. currently playing for the Michigan Wolverines. As of the first month of the season, Eisley Jr. had not logged a minute yet in the college basketball season. In the 2024-2025 season, he played just 4 minutes total over two games. Yet, he makes this list and enjoys the excitement of college basketball alongside his father. That, in and of itself, is pretty great.
Murray State races towards Mason Miller in the transfer portal Son of NBA champion sharpshooter Mike Miller, Mason began his collegiate career at Creighton Bluejays where he made strong strides, including leading the Big East in 3-point percentage in 2023-24 at 45 percent. For the 2025-26 season, he transferred to Murray State Racers, reuniting with his former assistant-coach-turned-head-coach Ryan Miller.
Standing at 6′9″, Mason blends floor-stretching shooting (76 career 3-pointers) with positional versatility, and his move to Murray State signals a new chapter where he may have expanded opportunity. With his height, shooting and the lineage of his father’s championship experience, Mason could surprise this season if his development continues the upward trend.
Other families ties across college basketball link to former NBA players
Liberty Flames redshirt senior guard JJ Abrams is the stepson of Bo Outlaw. Outlaw was a 15 year veteran of the league who did the dirty work for some of the NBA’s worst teams during that time. He played for the Clippers and Magic, to name a few. Outlaw snagged a few top 10 votes as the leagues defensive player of the year for his commitment on that end of the floor.
Abrams, a redshirt senior, could be seen this season in March Madness. The Liberty Flames are widely regarded as one of the nation’s best true mid-major programs remaining, under the leadership of head coach Ritchie McKay.
Looking for smart betting picks for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups? This article breaks down four key NCAA Tournament games, with against-the-spread predictions for Michigan vs. Auburn, Michigan State vs. Ole Miss, BYU vs. Alabama, and Arizona vs. Duke. See which underdogs have value and which favorites are poised to cover based on matchups that pass the eye test.
It’s funny how reunions of both friends and foes are a constant theme of the college basketball tournament. Caleb Love will, again, be battling with his former in-conference rival, Duke. As you know, Love played for years at UNC where there were some classic clashes with the Blue Devils.
Michigan +8.5 vs. Auburn College Basketball Prediction, Pick Michigan enters this Sweet 16 matchup with one of the biggest frontcourts still standing. Auburn might be the higher seed, but the Wolverines can lean on their size and physicality to dictate the terms of this game. The rebounding edge is where this could tilt. Second-chance points, long possessions—those all benefit Michigan’s style of play. Auburn will try to run, but Michigan has enough discipline and toughness to weather that storm. It’s a tall task to win outright, but getting eight-and-a-half points here looks appealing.
Michigan State -3.5 vs. Ole Miss College Basketball Prediction, Pick It’s March. And that means one thing: Tom Izzo. His teams tend to tighten up their execution just when other squads start fraying. This version of the Spartans is classic Izzo—experienced guards, versatile forwards, and an edge in physical matchups like this one. Ole Miss has impressed with some big wins to get here, but Michigan State’s defense and discipline should win out in the late possessions. Laying 3.5 with Izzo in March? That always looks good to the eye.
BYU +4.5 vs. Alabama College Basketball Prediction, Pick
This is the most intriguing game of the night for me. Alabama is deep and dangerous, no doubt. But BYU is one of the few teams in the country that can go possession-for-possession with them and keep up the scoring. The Cougars have sharpshooters at every position and play with a pace and confidence that won’t shrink against the Crimson Tide’s press and length. In any 5-on-5 set, BYU can match Alabama bucket for bucket. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cougars win this one outright, and grabbing 4.5 points in a shootout like this looks like a lock.
Arizona +8.5 vs. Duke College Basketball Prediction, Pick
This is where things get tricky. Arizona has the physical tools and offensive firepower to give Duke problems—especially in transition. The Wildcats move the ball well and know how to punish mismatches. But let’s be real: Duke is playing with an NBA showcase right now. They’ve got four, maybe five pros on the floor, and they’re all playing like it’s draft week. Arizona should keep this tight with their own versatility, but I’m not sold on them pulling it out late. Still, 8.5 points feels like too many in a game with this much top-end talent. Arizona to cover looks like a confident lean, even if the Blue Devils escape with the W.
The Ticket of Integrity: Saturday’s Smartest College Hoops Plays
A loaded slate of college basketball action means it’s time to lock in a Saturday ticket that blends sharp lines, big matchups, and teams with something to prove. This one’s dubbed The Ticket of Integrity, and there’s a lot to like. Let’s break it down pick by pick.
Florida Gators -9.5
The Gators are rolling at home and have a clear edge in both talent and tempo. They’ve been dominant in Gainesville lately, and their aggressive defense tends to overwhelm lesser opponents. Against a team that struggles to score in bunches, Florida should build a lead and keep the foot on the gas. Expect them to cover with some breathing room.
Baylor Bears +12.5
Baylor isn’t your typical double-digit underdog. Even in tough road environments, their backcourt is experienced and battle-tested. This line feels inflated—possibly reacting to a strong opponent—but Baylor’s ability to control pace and knock down timely threes makes them dangerous. They don’t even have to win, just keep it close—and they’re more than capable of that.
Jeremy Roach isn’t the only point guard who is playing his former team for a chance to advance. Roach plays a Duke program he spent three seasons with, but Tre Donaldson will be playing against his old Auburn team for a shot at the Elite 8. This fascination with revenge games, or at least awkward matchups among exes, is one of several trends fixed as annual traditions in recent years. Click here to read 5 more traditions that we now see on an every year basis.
Kentucky Wildcats +2
Kentucky’s youth is starting to gel at the right time. When they’re locked in, this is one of the most offensively explosive teams in the country. They’ll have the best player on the floor and a coaching edge in late-game scenarios. Getting them as an underdog is rare value—this is a live dog play all the way.
Alabama Crimson Tide -250 (Moneyline)
Alabama at home is a different beast. Their offensive firepower, led by elite guard play, can torch defenses in a hurry. While laying -250 on the moneyline is steep, this is about securing a key piece of the parlay with a team unlikely to lose outright. The Tide roll here—plain and simple.
Ironically, St. Mary’s remains one of my top remaining underdog values in the tournament. Click here to see what teams I had identified as the best 5 future values once the tourney began.
Iowa State Cyclones -5.5
Cyclone Nation is built on suffocating defense and Hilton Magic. Iowa State’s ability to force turnovers and control tempo makes them a nightmare matchup, especially in Ames. With a manageable spread, they’re in a perfect spot to not just win, but win decisively. Trust the home court to deliver once again.
Maryland Terrapins -7.5
The Terps have quietly become one of the more consistent home teams in conference play. Their defense has clamped down lately, and they’ve shown they can string together scoring runs that bury teams quickly. Against a weaker opponent, Maryland should flex early and often. A double-digit win is well within reach.
Arizona Wildcats -3.5
When Arizona is humming, they look like a Final Four team. Their inside-out balance and high tempo can overwhelm opponents who aren’t used to that kind of pace. With tournament positioning on the line, expect a focused effort and a margin that clears the number. The Wildcats know what’s at stake—and they’ll play like it.
We are sweetening the pot for the most intriguing thing about March Madness, rooting for the underdogs, by selling some futures tickets on our favorite underdogs to win the tourney. Blogger Matty D. has invested in all of these teams and will be riding the bandwagon with you. However, it’s time to hedge and sell off a portion of these shares as these teams are gaining value.
These futures tickets for the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament are listed on PropSwap.com, which is a secondary marketplace to resell physical tickets.
Texas A&M Futures Ticket for Resale Ahead of Major Matchup against Michigan
Wade Taylor IV and the Aggies are moving on after knocking off another one of my favorite future values this season, the Yale Bulldogs. They’ll square up against Michigan, which is a tough matchup with the two 7-footers they run out there. However, one of Texas A&M’s best assets is its depth. They’ll have plenty of bodies and plenty of fouls to throw at the Wolverines. Next up, a potential rematch with SEC foe Auburn. If Auburn’s first half performance against Alabama State is any indication, the Tigers could be vulnerable. If the Aggies get past those two challenging matchups, the sky is the limit. The Aggies also just beat Auburn to finish its historically great regular season (beating a #1 overall ranked team for the first time in its 100+ year history).
Saint Mary’s Futures Ticket for Resale for Those Who Like to Grind Out Wins
There are more exciting teams to watch than St. Mary’s, but the Gaels are good enough to make a Final Four. They have veteran leadership, have an identity with their methodical pace, and have beaten a good Gonzaga team on multiple occasions this season. Therefore, they’re proven.
Join the Drake Train While You Can at a Crazy Number for a Huge Payout
At the time that this ticket was listed, it was the first and only Drake ticket listed on the PropSwap marketplace. Therefore, let the bidding begin at 100-1!
If you watched Drake dismantle a good Missouri team, it’s not hard to imagine this ticket gaining value. PropSwap currently has this ticket rated as a “poor” value, but I disagree!
PropSwap is not a sponsor of this article. For business inquiries about this blog, please email mattydmedia@gmail.com today.
On Thursday the Men’s College Basketball Tournament got started in fitting fashion with two underdogs looking like title contenders but now it’s time to quickly turn attention to Friday’s games. Drake and McNeese State opened eyes across the nation not only beating their power conference opponents (Missouri and Clemson respectively), but looking like a dark-horse candidate for a Final 4 run in the process.
Yale got yanked from the tournament. They were my lone futures underdog that didn’t survive Thursday’s action. See my top 4 remaining underdog futures by clicking here.
1. Liberty +6.5 vs. Oregon (Grade: A+)
Liberty getting 6.5 against Oregon felt like a steal, and this one tops the list for good reason. The Flames have been a tough out all year with a disciplined system and three-point shooting that can keep them in any game. Colin Porter is a jitter bug undersized point guard who is fun to watch but hard to stay in front of. Catching nearly a touchdown against an Oregon team still figuring itself out? Chef’s kiss.
2. Grand Canyon +10.5 vs. Maryland (Grade: A)
This one had “sharp” written all over it. Grand Canyon has quietly become a defensive juggernaut in their conference, and catching double digits against an up-and-down Maryland squad was just too good to pass up. Even more appealing: Terps head coach Kevin Willard is surrounded by speculation as the potential next Villanova hire. With that kind of distraction hovering over the program, 10.5 points looks even tastier.
3. UConn ML vs. Oklahoma (Grade: A-)
Taking the reigning champs on the money line at a reasonable -192 was a smart anchor to this parlay. UConn’s size, depth, and defensive prowess make them a reliable choice in high-pressure games like this one, and Oklahoma just doesn’t have the tools to match them bucket-for-bucket.
4. Marquette ML vs. New Mexico (Grade: A-)
Another safe money line pick that added stability to the slate. Marquette’s high-octane offense and Shaka Smart’s defensive scheme give them an edge over New Mexico, even if the Lobos are no slouches. Laying -166 felt like a worthy investment.
5. Baylor +1.5 vs. Mississippi State (Grade: A-)
Catching points with Baylor? Yes, please. This Bears team is deep and battle-tested, and while Mississippi State is gritty, they don’t quite have the offensive firepower to pull away. This one had “tight game decided late” written all over it—perfect for that +1.5.
6. Bryant +17.5 vs. Michigan State (Grade: A-)
Taking Bryant with the points may have raised some eyebrows, but 17.5 is a lot to cover, even for Michigan State. Bryant has enough shooters and tempo control to keep it respectable, and the Spartans haven’t exactly been lighting it up offensively this season.
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A big number to lay, but Iowa State’s defense can suffocate mid-majors like Lipscomb. Once the Cyclones get rolling, they’re capable of creating scoring runs that blow things open fast. This felt like a smart move, even with the wide spread.
8. Arizona -13.5 vs. Akron (Grade: B+)
Arizona has the firepower to cover this kind of spread, but Akron isn’t a pushover. This pick leaned on Arizona’s athletic edge and transition game, which can turn a close game into a rout in a matter of minutes. Solid pick, just a bit of a sweat.
9. Alabama -22.5 vs. Robert Morris (Grade: B+)
This was a swing for the fences. Alabama can certainly run it up, and Robert Morris simply doesn’t have the horses to hang, but covering 22.5 requires perfection. High upside, but some risk baked in.
10. Saint Mary’s ML vs. Vanderbilt (Grade: B)
This one was all about trusting the system. Saint Mary’s grinds teams down and controls tempo as well as anyone, but Vanderbilt is athletic enough to throw them off rhythm. Still, at -170, it was a calculated play that made sense. St. Mary’s is one of my favorite values for futures betting. Click here to see which of those underdog teams are still remaining.
11. Kentucky -10.5 vs. Troy (Grade: B-)
Kentucky should absolutely take care of business against Troy, even on a neutral court. But covering 10.5 depends on which version of the Wildcats shows up. They’ve been erratic at times, especially with young lineups, which makes this one a little dicey despite the talent gap.
12. Memphis +2.5 vs. Colorado State (Grade: C-)
This was the most volatile pick on the card. Memphis has talent, but they’re wildly inconsistent, and Colorado State is one of those fundamentally sound teams that just doesn’t beat itself. Taking Memphis here was a gut play—and the gut doesn’t always win.
Each of these March Madness traditions are already rearing their ugly, or beautiful, heads.
Play-In Game Winners Gain Momentum and Beat the Odds
North Carolina is demolishing San Diego State, a historically great defensive program. Their decisive win is silencing all of their detractors who said they didn’t belong in the tournament. UNC’s newfound momentum now finds them as the annual dangerous 11 seed that finds its mojo in Dayton. As improbable as this sounds, the play-in game winner has become very dangerous. Those teams carry momentum. They get the natural advantage of getting familiar with the arena on a Tuesday or Wednesday before they play the at-large opponent on Thursday or Friday.
In 2022, 11-seeded Notre Dame beat Rutgers in a close (play-in) game and then crushed 6-seeded Alabama by 14 points in the next matchup. Notre Dame then gave 3-seed Texas Tech trouble before losing by 6 points.
In 2021, UCLA won its play-in game as an 11 seed and continued its magical run all the way to the Final Four.
In 2018, Syracuse made the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed after beating Arizona State in the play-in game.
In 2017, 11-seed USC upset (4-loss) SMU in the first round after winning its play-in game.
In 2016, Fred VanVleet and the 11-seed Wichita State Shockers beat Vanderbilt in the playoff game before upsetting 6-seed Arizona.
And so this trend of the 11 seed gaining momentum…is gaining momentum.
Fun fact: In the last 30 years, an 11 seed is much more likely to make a Final Four as compared to a 6 seed. The last 6 seed to make a Final Four was the Fab Five in 1993. Meantime, there have been four 11 seeds to make the Final Four since 2006 (George Mason, VCU, Loyola Chicago, and UCLA).
Sunday’s Made-for-TV Matchup Returns
The potential Baylor vs. Duke matchup on Sunday looms as another prime-time showdown tailor-made for TV drama. CBS and the NCAA continue their tradition of arranging Sunday games that capture maximum attention and create compelling narratives. This is nothing new. Wichita State basketball fans still aren’t over the letdown of losing to 8-seed Kentucky on Sunday, March 23rd, 2014.
Illinois basketball fans can relate, as the committee arranged a Sunday matinee for Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago to renew their Cinderella ways against an in-state foe in 2021. Loyola was arguably a top-10 team nationally, yet they were given a 9 seed, ensuring a high-profile matchup with 1-seed Illinois within the first weekend. It was just too good of a television programming moment for the committee and/or television executives to pass up.
If CJ McCollum and Harold “The Show” Arceneaux haven’t taught us anything, then Max Abmas and Oral Roberts made it officially official: The scoring abilities of a guard who ranks in the top five (or first overall) nationwide can translate in the tournament. Donovan Dent, the nation’s eighth-leading scorer, is now leading a dangerous 10-seed in a winnable eighth fraction of the bracket in the South. History tells us to keep an eye on these types of players.
Shaky Teams Get Shocked in the First Showdown
Duke is limping to the finish line and is about to be shocked. The Blue Devils have two superstars nursing injuries (Click here to see the injury tracker), and while their roster is stacked with first-round projected NBA picks, that doesn’t always equate to Final Four finishes. Oftentimes, these players are preoccupied with other priorities.
With two losses in late February and an early exit from the SEC Tournament, perhaps we should have seen the 2021-22 Kentucky Wildcats struggling with 15-seed Saint Peter’s in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is another team that lost to this same Saint Peter’s bunch. The Boilermakers also showed signs of trouble late in the season. They lost three games in the final two weeks of the regular season (at Michigan State, at Wisconsin, and home to Iowa).
Do we expect Purdue to be undefeated the final two weeks in a tough Big Ten gauntlet of a schedule? No. Were the warning signs there for a team stacked with NBA talent? Yes.
Future NBA Greats Don’t Always Dominate
Tre Johnson, the freshman phenom at Texas, is the player to watch in this category. If he’s as dominant as advertised, he has a path to shine. He would have winnable games against Illinois and Kentucky if his bracket broke according to the favorites. However, history tells us that not all elite prospects make deep runs in the tournament.
If you’re a fan of 1990s NBA hoops, think of the best players of the past three decades who actually played some college basketball: Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan. None made a Final Four. In fact, most of these greats struggled to advance beyond the first weekend. Conversely, media darlings like Jimmer Fredette and Luka Garza became National Players of the Year yet never cracked the Sweet 16.
Committee’s Fascination with Reunions and Revenge Games
The orchestration of great storylines goes beyond Sunday matchups. The committee loves arranging revenge games and reuniting old foes. A potential Kansas vs. Missouri game could dictate who makes an Elite Eight from the former Big Eight conference. It’s not the first time the committee has set up a meeting between exes. In case you don’t know the history, the rivalry between Kansas and Missouri goes back to the violent quarrels that led up to the Civil War itself.
The most recent example is how Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer played against his old team in round one. The committee didn’t even wait for the field of 32 to reunite that broken relationship! It happens frequently for coaches, too. One example that comes to mind is when 11-seeded Arizona State got paired with 6-seeded Buffalo in the first round, setting up an awkward meeting between Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley and his former school. Not only did Buffalo face their ex-coach, but they did so in their highest-ever tournament seeding, making for compelling drama. Buffalo beat Arizona State in 2019, proving once again that storylines drive the bracket.
Final Thought: March Madness always delivers its usual dose of insanity, and 2025 is proving to be no different. As you pick your bracket, remember that future NCAA legends should be good, but not too great. The team should be must-see TV, but not have a tragic character whose reputation could never outpace his play. Good luck with that.
The madness has arrived, and with it comes the challenge of picking winners against the spread. With upsets brewing and lines set to tempt bettors, I’m locking in my best plays for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The key? Taking value where the market gives it and, in the case of BYU and Michigan, paying a small premium on the money line to avoid sweating the points.
This game should be an old-fashioned pick ‘em. Both teams have the talent to make a run, and I don’t see a clear favorite here. When that’s the case, I’m gladly taking the 2.5 points with Creighton, knowing they have just as much of a chance to win outright as Louisville.
High Point (+8.5) vs. Purdue
Purdue isn’t a No. 1 seed this year, but they still have the size and experience to be dangerous. That said, High Point is built to cover this spread. Their perimeter shooting and ability to speed up the pace make them a sneaky play at +8.5.
Montana (+16.5) vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin plays a slow, grinding style, which makes covering a big number like 16.5 tough. Montana should be able to keep this game within reach simply by limiting possessions and playing solid defense.
McNeese State (+7.5) vs. Clemson
McNeese is one of the strongest mid-majors in this tournament, and they match up well against Clemson. Their defense and ability to control the tempo make them a live dog here. I’ll take the 7.5 points with confidence.
BYU (Money Line, -142) vs. VCU
Rather than sweating BYU covering the spread, I’m backing them on the money lineat -142. The Cougars have the edge in talent and efficiency, and I trust them to win outright without worrying about VCU sneaking in a late cover.
Georgia (+6.5) vs. Gonzaga
This isn’t the same dominant Gonzaga team we’ve seen in years past. Georgia has the athleticism to keep this one close, and they’re more than capable of hanging within 6.5 points.
Arkansas (+4.5) vs. Kansas
Kansas has been shaky down the stretch, and Arkansas has the athleticism and defensive intensity to make this a dogfight. With Kansas showing inconsistency, I’ll take the Razorbacks and the 4.5 points.
Yale (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M
The Ivy League has a history of bracket-busting, and Yale fits the mold of a team that can make things uncomfortable for a higher seed. Their methodical offense and tough defense should keep this game close, making 7.5 points an easy take.
What makes Yale one of the best overall underdogs in the tournament is their continuity and discipline. The Bulldogs don’t rely on one or two star players; they execute as a unit, making them less susceptible to off-nights from individual performers. They also control tempo exceptionally well, which forces more athletic teams into uncomfortable half-court battles. That’s a nightmare for an opponent like Texas A&M, which thrives in transition. If you’re looking for an underdog with serious long-term value, Yale deserves your attention.
Drake has already proven they can compete with Power Five schools. Missouri has been inconsistent, and this feels like a classic mid-major value pick. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Drake wins outright.
Beyond this game, Drake is one of the best underdog teams in the entire tournament field. The biggest reason? Bennett Stirtz. He’s the smoothest point guard in the country that no one is talking about. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent from the Kansas City area and transfers from Northwest Missouri State, where new head coach Ben McCollum has built a championship-winning culture.
McCollum’s dominance at the Division II level—where he won four national titles and posted an 81.2% career win rate—is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His system is proven, and now he has the resources and talent to execute it on a larger stage. Expect his winning mentality and attention to detail to make Drake one of the most dangerous low seeds in the entire field.
Another spot where I’m avoiding the spread and simply backing Michigan to win outright. UC San Diego is no pushover, but Michigan’s talent gap should be enough to get the job done. I’ll take the money line at -150 rather than sweating a possible tight finish.
UNC Wilmington (+15.5) vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech can score, but they also allow teams to hang around. UNC Wilmington has the offensive tools to keep this from getting out of hand, making 15.5 points too good to pass up.
St. John’s is built to run teams out of the gym, and Omaha doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. When the Red Storm get rolling, they don’t let up, and I expect this one to be over early. Lay the 18.5 and trust the blowout.
Thursday’s Games with Huge Favorites
There are a handful of Thursday games that I’m passing on simply because the spreads are too outrageous to find real value. These include Auburn vs. Alabama State/Saint Francis, Florida vs. Norfolk State, Duke vs. American/Mount St. Mary’s, Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville, and Tennessee vs. Wofford. These matchups feature top-seeded teams against overmatched opponents, where the favorites are more than capable of running away with the game—but covering a massive number in the first round is always a gamble. While a few of these underdogs might hang around early, there’s too much risk in relying on them to keep it close for 40 minutes or expecting the favorites to stay locked in for a full blowout cover. Sometimes, the best play is no play at all.
Final Thoughts
This tournament is full of value plays, and I’m taking a mix of live underdogs and sharp money line bets to maximize profit potential. BYU and Michigan are worth paying a small premium to avoid the spread, while teams like Drake, Yale, and McNeese could all exceed expectations. If you’re looking for underdogs that can make a deep run, check out the full list of the top 5 underdogs for futures bets!
With the NCAA Tournament bracket officially revealed, the first look at each region reveals key storylines, potential upsets, and teams set up for deep runs. Here’s an initial breakdown from CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com author Matty D.
Texas A&M and Michigan got no favors in their draw, facing nightmare high seeds with a potential meeting against Auburn looming. Meanwhile, under-seeded teams like Louisville, Marquette, and Creighton could create chaos in this region. The 11-seed looks dangerous and could roll through the bracket. As for upsets, Bryant has a legitimate chance to beat Michigan State outright, but at the very least, they’re a lock to cover the first half spread.
East Region: Duke on Upset Alert
Duke might be one of the biggest names in the East, but they’re far from safe. Baylor, Arizona, BYU, or Alabama all have the firepower to take them down. The SEC’s representation in this region is interesting, with Vanderbilt sneaking in as a 10-seed and Alabama managing to hold onto a 2-seed. While most lower seeds don’t pose a significant Sweet 16 threat, Liberty has the tools to take out Oregon in the first round.
Midwest Region: Houston’s to Lose, But Upsets Lurk
The Midwest Region looks like Houston’s to lose, but there’s plenty of room for chaos. The winner of the Clemson vs. McNeese matchup could make the most noise in this section of the bracket. Purdue sits as a high seed, but High Point has a real shot at taking them down. Meanwhile, Texas is a team to watch—if they build momentum, they could be a dangerous 11-seed no one wants to face.
West Region: Cinderella Runs and a Potential Border War
The West Region might be the most unpredictable of them all. The winner of Missouri vs. Drake is primed for an Elite Eight run, while a potential “Border War” clash between Kansas and Missouri could add a historic rivalry to the mix. In the first round, Maryland vs. Grand Canyon could be the best game to watch. Meanwhile, Walter Clayton Jr. and Florida is built for a deep run and could find themselves in the Elite Eight, no matter if they’re facing a No. 6, 7, or 11 seed along the way.
First Takeaway
The bracket is set, and early impressions reveal a mix of powerhouse teams, potential Cinderella stories, and major upset possibilities. As always, March Madness promises chaos, and this year’s first look suggests we’re in for another wild ride.
College Basketball Eye Test 