Category Archives: Preseason Predictions

The reason I created this blog – putting my predictions on record – for fun.

Fine Matchups Follow First Four

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NBA Jam Jayhawks

Do you start your Tuesday by watching Quinnipiac vs. LaSalle?  Are you planning your daily workout around LSU vs. UMass?  Today’s tip off marathon features a grand finale.  Kentucky plays Michigan St. followed by Kansas and Duke.  What’s even better is that these schools have committed a few years to rotate facing one another.  The new tradition is called the “First Four.”  Here are my picks for tonight’s featured games.  I am taking Duke giving 3 1/2, Michigan State  giving 2 1/2, and Florida getting 11 points from Wisconsin (I thought that was a misprint on http://www.vegasinsider.com).

You know how the Tournament Selection Committee picks bubble teams based on how they play against one another?  Well, a lot of those matchup actually happen in November.  Tis the season for out-of-conference tournaments.  Teams that excel can really boost their resume before the punishment of conference play come January and February.  Here are some great games on TV in November to keep an eye on.  They could double as bubble-busters before you fill out your bracket this March.

Tuesday, November 12th

*Florida at Wisconsin

Kansas @ DUKE
Kentucky @ Michigan St.

 

 

Thursday, November 21st – Florida St. @ VCU on ESPN U

 

 

  

*Don’t sleep on this Wisconsin Florida matchup.  Wisconsin debuted a convincing win against an athletic St. John’s team.  Florida welcomes one of the best high school recruits at a much-needed position.  Check out new point guard Kasey Hill.

 

 

This game features two of the most intimidating defenses in recent years.   Florida State’s fearsome defense led by coach Leonard Hamilton has taken a hiatus from the NCAA tourney.  I am looking for a bounce-back year after Hamilton has reshuffled the deck with some younger players.  I’m looking forward to seeing how VCU’s full court havoc defense stacks up to Florida State’s more traditional half-court ball pressure.  I predict VCU is too tough and covers the spread.

 

Monday, November 25th – Marquette at Arizona State

 

 

 

Monday, November 25th – Minnesota vs. Syracuse on ESPN2

 Marquette loses Vander Blue while Arizona State gets a year of maturity with speedster point guard Jahii Carson.  I think Marquette will cover this spread, but this would be a huge resume boost for the Sun Devils if they can beat an Elite 8 team from last year.

 

I’m curious to see what Syracuse’s backcourt will look like this year after losing both Carter Williams and Triche.  Enter Andre Hollins.  The Minnesota Gophers shed a lot of baggage from last year’s team.  It will be interesting to see if both Hollins players declare this as their team with a statement win against the Orange.  My prediction is that they won’t, not this early at least.  Take Cuse against the spread.

 

 

 

Matt’s A.T.S. Forecast – First Friday

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It’s the first Friday of college hoops.  This blog will show a log of how I do against the spread (A.T.S.).  Hence, Matt’s ATS is born.

Georgetown is giving three points, even though Oregon just suspended starting point guard Dominic Artis for selling apparel.  That would be my first Matty D Guarantee of the season, but I spend those very frugally.  Take Georgetown to the bank.

Wisconsin can go an entire half not scoring 15 points, so laying 5 1/2 is a difficult concept. However, I see their defense giving St. John’s difficulty.  Steve Lavin normally has a raw athletic bunch, so I’ll predict it takes them some weeks before figuring out how to play offense together.  The Wisconsin Badgers understanding defense will outweigh that athleticism.  Give that 5 1/2 and enjoy Jimmy Jackson’s kid play ball.

If you’ve read my blog, the next prediction is not a shocker.  I’m taking Colorado with the six points.  However, I think Baylor will be very good this season with the big man in his sophomore campaign.

Matts ATS – I will update this document throughout the season with my progress.

Teams My pick Final Score 1 if I won 1 if I lost
Colorado                           6
Baylor
Oregon
Georgetown -3
St. John’s
Wisconsin -5.5

Matt’s A.T.S. Forecast – First Friday

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It’s the first Friday of college hoops.  This blog will show a log of how I do against the spread (A.T.S.).  Hence, Matt’s ATS is born.

Georgetown is giving three points, even though Oregon just suspended starting point guard Dominic Artis for selling apparel.  That would be my first Matty D Guarantee of the season, but I spend those very frugally.  Take Georgetown to the bank.

Wisconsin can go an entire half not scoring 15 points, so laying 5 1/2 is a difficult concept. However, I see their defense giving St. John’s difficulty.  Steve Lavin normally has a raw athletic bunch, so I’ll predict it takes them some weeks before figuring out how to play offense together.  The Wisconsin Badgers understanding defense will outweigh that athleticism.  Give that 5 1/2 and enjoy Jimmy Jackson’s kid play ball.

If you’ve read my blog, the next prediction is not a shocker.  I’m taking Colorado with the six points.  However, I think Baylor will be very good this season with the big man in his sophomore campaign.

Matts ATS – I will update this document throughout the season with my progress.

Teams My pick Final Score 1 if I won 1 if I lost
Colorado
Baylor 6
Oregon
Georgetown -3
St. John’s
Wisconsin -5.5

Sorry Sequel Squads

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Do you remember Speed 2?  Neither do I.  Some sequels should never be made.  Maybe there’s just one actor remaining from the original, but Hollywood forces it on you anyways.  Enter Yogi Farrell on this year’s Indiana team.  The Hoosiers top my flab five of teams destined for a flat showing compared to the 2012-13 campaign:
1.     Indiana
2.     Oregon
3.     New Mexico
4.     Gonzaga
5.     Wichita St.
Oregon was one of the coolest stories last March.  They ran the table in the Pac 12 Championships, were insulted with a 12-seed, then corralled the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  They beat a great St. Louis squad before meeting their match in eventual champion Louisville.  They deserve all the credit in the world, which is what they’re getting with a AP Top 25 ranking pre-season.  However, again, they’ve lost the actors.  Emery, Kazemi and Singler are gone.  They added Mosier from UNLV, but have you checked what success he’s had tournament time with the “Running Rebels?”
I feel the same way about Wichita State.  I was totally drinking the kool-aid last season with the Shockers.  However, they’ve lost a starting point guard in Amstead, the most winningest Shocker in program history with Williams, and a grown man in Hall.  Players matter.

Touring Terre Haute

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Touring Terre Haute

“Terre Haute, that’s where Larry Bird is from!” I feverishly snapped a picture out of the Budget Rental Truck as we flew by the isolated exit on an Indiana highway.  I could have told my girlfriend “LeBron James grew up here,” and she would not have batted an eye.  Luckily we needed to get gas.  I fact-checked myself.  Larry Bird is from French Lick, duh.  How could I forget that?


                Jake Odum is from Terre Haute.  Indiana State, Larry Bird’s alma mater, is also in Terra Haute, where Odum plays.  If you check out Bleacher Report’s top 22 point guards nationally, you won’t find Jake Odum.   But I’m giving the 6’4” senior some love right here.  With Creighton leaving the Missouri Valley Conference for greener pastures, the Sycamores have a real opportunity.  Odum is one of those guys who looks like he is playing in slow-motion, but already has the play diagnosed.  Over Odum’s career his conference has sent quality competitors to the big dance with Creighton, Wichita State and Northern Iowa.  All the while, he has put up nearly 450 assists.  Odum scored more in his junior campaign, averaging 13.6 points per game.  Look for he and backcourt mate Manny Arop to drop in on the national conversation come March.

My starting LINE up

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I placed this bet last Thanksgiving

I placed this bet last Thanksgiving

I like to start my season by finding some underdog teams that will soon become the darlings of the nation.  Last year around Thanksgiving I put $10 bucks on Wichita State at 150/1.  That was part of my “starting lineup.”  I take $100 bucks.  I identify teams I love from last year with enough remaining pieces.  I spread the $100 dollars among as many teams to win at least $1,000 if I get lucky and pick the champion.  Last March I had many options to hedge my bet when Wichita State was in the final four.  Here’s this year’s “Starting Lineup:”

$30 Oklahoma St.  35/1 = $1,050
$25 VCU 40/1 = $1,000
$17 UCONN 60/1 =  $1,020
$14 St. Louis 75/1 = $1,050
$14 Colorado 75/1 = 1,050
Sorry KU fans, but Oklahoma State tops this list.  Marcus Smart is just a winner.  The Cowboys are slightly undersized, but I’m still shocked to see 35/1 odds at the beginning of the season for them to win a championship.   I think those odds will look more like 15/1 come March.
Shaka Smart and VCU only get better this year.  I expect New Yorker Melvin Johnson to play a bigger role.  VCU is known for havoc on defense, but I think this is the year guys like Johnson get involved in a more diverse scoring attack.
Something special was happening with Kevin Ollie’s UConn Huskies last year.  I expect his team to continue responding to his coaching style with his sophomore campaign.
I went hard wagering behind St. Louis last March.  They ran into a red-hot Oregon team in the tournament and were out the first weekend.  I still expect Jett, Loe and Evans to come back with a vengeance this season.
Finally, Colorado can really ball.  I compare Spencer Dinwittie to Victor Oladipo last season.  He is a great defender who no one is talking about heading into this season.  However, I think he has lottery pick talent.  Xavier Johnson and Askia Booker also made progress scoring last season.  I hope to see you in Vegas come March looking good to win a thousand bucks and more.