Who’s your Fab Five?  We are officially now just one month away from March.  Before the Madness, you should pick your top 5 teams.  I still like Ohio State.  Despite them losing three straight in a difficult Big 10, they still have the talent to get to a Final Four.  We all know Aaron Craft is a defensive difference maker.  They are still reeling after losing Deshaun Thomas to the pros (French League).  However, I believe the scoring can be made up for by committee.  I had never heard of LaQuinton Ross before his big shot led the Buckeyes over Arizona and into the Elite Eight last year.  The freshman darling Starling Loving from Toledo is getting more minutes throughout the season.  I believe they have enough shooters with he, Lenzelle Smith Jr. and Shannon Scott to score by committee.  Ohio State rounds out my top 5 of teams I can envision actually WINNING a national championship.  Kansas is the “snub,” if you can call it that, because there is enough film in existence showing Joel Embiid struggling with a double team.

1.  Michigan State
2.  Arizona
3.  Florida
4.  St. Louis
5.  Ohio State

Where Joel at? A challenge to one-on-one

Now that is on the record, it leads right into my Saturday picks.  I like Ohio State + 4 1/2 against Wisconsin.  Both the Badgers and Buckeyes are desperate.  I think this game will come down to a final possession.  Two scoring possessions could take six minutes of game time against Wisconsin, so I like that extra half-point to handicap Ohio State 4 1/2.

I hated watching John Calapari bark at his young Wildcats, as Kentucky got embarrassed this week at LSU.  Johnny O’Brien III had his way will Willie Cauley-Stein.  However, Missouri doesn’t have that big man advantage today.  The Tigers have been like my Knicks.  Totally schizophrenic.  They just got a big win in Arkansas, which means they are due for a winning streak before disappointing their fans again.  If Calapari was as pissed against LSU, jumping onto the court to push Andrew Harrison into the right motion offense.  This isn’t a good luck for Kentucky.  They just too much of a mess to like getting 2 1/2 points.  Take Missouri.  This quality win for the Tigers could be the difference between them being that 3rd or 4th team from the SEC into the big dance.  National analysts are saying there will be four teams total from this conference.  Arkansas, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU would have to battle it out for that fourth spot.  I actually like five teams from this conference.

Utah is a team to beware of.  They lost to eventual champion Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship last year after putting forth a serious run at the Big Dance.  Days ago they had Arizona on the ropes before losing the game.  With Spence Dinwittie out for Colorado, I like the Utes getting 2 1/2 points.  Perhaps they can close out a game today.

Keeping with the West, I like Stanford to cover 4 1/2 against Arizona State.  Stanford is another team thirsty for revenge after playing Arizona tough.

Hey!  Did you see Duke has its 3rd and final Plumlee brother?  The Blue Devils are playing fantastic ball right now.  They’ve found their rim protector in Mashall Plumlee. I also love the fact that Andre Dawkins is providing senior leadership.  He played just 4 minutes in a loss against Arizona and 10 minutes in a win against Michigan.  Since then, he has averaged 16 1/2 minutes per game.  He, Plumlee and Rasheed Suulaimon are making quality contributions, which is something Duke was lacking from the bench early this season.  I am taking Duke +4 1/2 points visiting Syracuse.  Again, I think the Orange are overdue for that loss.

I don’t understand how Oklahoma is getting 9 points in Iowa State after how well they’ve played.  I am taking Lon Krueger’s Sooners and watching this team real closely as a sleeper 6, 7, 8 or 9 seed in the Big Dance.

I told myself after last week’s poor performance (2-5, 24-22 on the season) that I need to also pick favorites, not just underdogs.  I’ll take Arizona to cover 4 1/2 points in California.  I don’t believe in the Golden Bear’s bigs, and Kaleb Tarczewski is one of my favorite players in the land.  This means I am officially laying off the Michigan State Georgetown game.  Spartans are spotting the Hoyas eight points, but are reeling from injuries.  A win for either team would be very significant in the big picture.

Anyone actually reading my blog?  You’re tired of me talking about Florida State.  So let me get this out of the way: take the Seminoles -8 at Duke.  I think Duke actually wins this one, so I would wager $30 on the points line to every $5 on the Money Line favoring Florida State.

Let’s continue role-playing how I’d bet $100 bucks today…

Kansas State getting 9 1/2 in Ames against Iowa St. is a crap shoot.  I’m staying off of this one.  I could see it being blow-out city for “The Mayor” and the Iowa St. Cyclones.  However, K-State has surprised me a couple times this season already.  I respect the past performances (and the line).  The one Big 12 game I will wager is to favor Baylor -6 at home against Texas.  I think Texas has over-performed and Baylor is pissed it just got shielded by KU despite a most feisty effort.  I’d just put $5 on a Baylor cover, for the purposes of this exercise.

Richmond s getting 3 1/2 points after beating UMASS against Dayton?  And the Spiders are hosting?  Throw a shekel ($5) on Richmond to win this game outright.  Why not?  They’re home and they’re on a roll.  Back-to-back wins against UMASS and Dayton can be a season-changer, and they know that.

We’re up to $45 wagered, on this fictitious exercise.

Florida is awesome, but Tennessee is desperate for a program win.  I will take the Volunteers $5 money line and $6 getting the 9 points.  This means if they cover, but don’t win, I break even.  However, I profit $17.75 for my measly $5 if they win outright.  If they get blown out, obviously I lose the $11 bucks.  Let’s do it (hypothetically).

Michigan State Michigan is the match up of the day.  You know why?  Because they are tightly matched up, especially because of the injuries Sparty is facing.  I think Michigan St. will win at home because senior Appling is facing freshman Walton at point.  But, it’s the highlight game of the day for a reason, and I’ll wager $24 that Michigan covers 6.

$20 bucks left.  $5 on Georgetown cover 11 1/2, $5 on Georgetown money line (+500) at Creighton.  $10 on BYU to cover 7 1/2 against Gonzaga.  I like BYU’s freshman center to keep this one interesting, and BYU has underperformed versus expectations.  I think the Gonzaga Bulldogs to squeak out a close one.

I only took 1 favorite compared to 6 underdogs.  But, that’s what I do.  I am shopping for great values and simulating the type of approach I’ll take during March Madness.  Matt’s ATS is 22-17 after a disappointing 3-4 last week.  That’s only 56% on the year.  My goal is to head into Vegas this March at least 60% on the season.  Let’s see how I fare when we take into account more practical pricing scenarios.

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Mid-majors.  Does that term exist anymore?  I’m going to make sure the little guys get some love here because, unless you’ve forgotten, North Dakota State, Florida Gulf Coast and Lehigh all had respectable recent runs in the tournament.

Eastern Kentucky dominated Belmont in a nationally televised game on its home court.  Both teams can shoot the three.  They are both in the top ten nationally for most 3-pointers made.  Belmont is a good team with quality wins for its program over some of the country’s giants.  Eastern Kentucky penetrated its defense, dunked on its front line, and matched its precision from behind the arc.   I always give bonus points when a team wins on a nationally televised game.  We’re looking for teams that can handle the pressure and Eastern Kentucky is on my radar after this win.

Green Bay has some dairy farmer country-strong type size.  The Horizon league squad has a kid Faust who lead its league in rebounding last year as a freshman.  It has an undersized but prolific scorer at point and a legitimate yet clumsy big body down low.  Hey, it’s the Horizon League.

The A-10 doesn’t belong in this conversation but I’m plugging it in here because the conference receives no respect.  Respect the line on your bracket if you see an A-10 team on an unassuming 6-11 matchup.  I’m talking about LaSalle, St. Louis, VCU, Temple all fared pretty well in recent March play.  (Temple has since left the conference).  Dayton, George Washington and St. Louis are my teams to watch for from this league this season.  Assuming the three make march madness, I would bet on a 2-1 record Thursday-Friday.

Headed to the guard-heavy MAAC conference, where I once got my jollies watching Fran McCaffery’s Siena Saints in Albany, New York. Even former NY Knick Anthony Mason’s kid plays for Niagara (and leads the country in scoring), Manhattan is currently listed as the Bracketology conference pick, but it’s Caniscius that I like.  My spell-check does not agree.  However, Billy Barron and the Golden Griffens rocked Iona (in Westchester) recently.  Barron has a big brother playing professionally in Rome, Italy who critiques his play after reviewing every game.  My critique would be that he plays like Jimmer Fredette.  He can shoot from anywhere.  He is also an underrated passer.  A lot of MAAC teams can spread the floor.  A clunky team like Baylor, Kentucky or Tennessee could struggle against them in a first round.

Long story, short, let’s get to the picks.  How is Virginia giving Florida State 6 points?  Probably because the Cavaliers scraped the Seminoles earlier this season.  I think 9 times out-of-10 Florida State covers that spread.  Put a little on Florida State to win money line.  Holy Toledo!  I didn’t talk about the other MAC conference.  Toledo looked awesome at Allen Fieldhouse in a 10 point loss earlier this season.  Therefore, I am taking them plus a point at Akron.  I think Oklahoma has been exploited the moment it snuck into the top 25.  I’ll take Baylor here minus 6 1/2 to right its ship and smack around the Sooners who lack an answer inside to Baylor’s bigs.  Keeping with the Big 12, Kansas has hit its stride.  I cannot see them not covering 4 points at home against Oklahoma State.  The cliche thing to say here is “Oklahoma State is without Michael Cobbins who is injured.”  I won’t say that.  Oklahoma State is fully capable of beating Kansas.  But not at Allen Fieldhouse.   Not now.  They’ll run into a power-saw Saturday.  I got burned last week betting against Syracuse giving 7 points.  I’ll play with fire again.  Take Pittsburgh plus 7 against the Orangemen.  Something’s got to give.  Syracuse is not so elite to remain one of three national unbeatens.  Sorry.  (Not really).  Speaking of unbeatens, Wichita State will not cover 11 1/2 against Indiana State.  One of my first blog posts was about Jake Odom, an awesome point guard at Terre Haute who gets absolutely no ink whatsover.  One more to go to make seven.  I’ll finish with a random selection.  Creighton has been on a roll.   However, they have struggled with quicker teams.  I feel Providence falls into that category for the value of six points.  Take the Friars to cover against the Blue Birds.  Enjoy another Saturday of college hoops and don’t forget to follow this blog officially by clicking “respect the line” in the top left corner and choose either e-mail updates or a simple follow through word press (if you’re a member).  Respect the Line.

Matty D is 14-11 against the spread (aka Matt’s ATS) thus far this season.

Syracuse just struggled at home versus Miami, a less developed team than the struggling North Carolina Tar Heels.  However, the Orange is still spotting UNC 7 points today.  I say Roy Williams boys go into the dome and cover the spread.  The key to this game, as it normally is with UNC, is the play of James Michael McAdoo.  I can’t see Syracuse’s undefeated streak extending for much longer.  The bigger spending that I am, I’d probably throw $15 on a UNC cover and $5 on a money line win.

“Respect the line.”  That is what I repeatedly say to myself when I see inflated spreads.  Kansas is getting major respect in its 11 point spread in the Sunflower State Showdown today hosting Kansas State.  I will, in fact, respect this line.  Vegas is telling me that KU should win this game handily.  After watching Bill Self’s squad figure some things out about its roster in Norman.  I saw K-State get killed on the glass early in the season against Charlotte.  I say Self’s rotation finds a hungry Tarik Black and an ever-improving Joel Embiid.  KU will continue its incline and cover the 11 points.

Headed down to SEC country, I like Georgia playing with momentum after earning its coach a win amidst his mourning his father.  Alabama has disappointed my expectations so far this season.  I would take Georgia getting the one point.  Staying in that conference, Marshall Henderson is out as expected for Ole Miss.  Meanwhile, its opponent Mississippi State just gave Kentucky a run for its money.  Because I like Henderson’s energy so much, I would take Miss St. here giving a point.

To round out the seven, I’ll take Georgetown giving Butler 1 1/2, Villanova -4 1/2 at St. John’s and New Mexico giving 11 1/2 at St. Jose State.  All three of those teams are just playing too well right now not to cover.

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#3 Ohio State is a perfect 15-0 but is getting 5 1/2 points from #5 Michigan State.  Take Michigan State.  That is all.

pic.twitter.com/XEbVwvDY85

See Exhibit A Above.

This loyal Auburn fan bought a $100 bet on his Tigers at 500 to 1 odds.  He will not hedge his bet.  Meaning, he will either win $50,000 tonight or nothing at all.  Auburn was a -600 favorite.  This is the line in which he could consider hedging his bet.  For example, if he wagered $6,000 on Auburn, he would at least win $1,000 if his Auburn Tigers lost the game.  One problem is finding $6,000 lying around.  However, a larger problem for Mark, the Auburn fan, is that his team loyalty would not allow him to bet on the other team.  Follow @markjskiba on Twitter for his dramatic one-liners during tonight’s BCS Championship game, with Auburn up 21-10 at halftime.  Good luck @markjskiba !

P.S. – I understand your nerves…

I placed this bet last Thanksgiving

Merry Christmas!  An early gift of top 25 action has arrived.  Stuff your stocking by taking Colorado, KU, Florida State and Illinois today.  Matt’s ATS is 6-7 on the year before this post.

Matt’s ATS is 5-5 so far this year.  Let’s bust that open with some picks today.

I like Tennessee to cover 6 at Wichita State, KU to cover 6 in the Sprint Center of Kansas City, and Kentucky’s Julius Randle to cover getting 3 at North Carolina.

Stepping away from hoops for a second, cause this 2010 commercial is crazy-ironic