Collegebasketballeyetest.com blogger Matty D. started March Madness on a roll with his picks against the spread going 12-2 on Thursday, and here he shares his picks for Friday.
Sports Betting Picks for Friday in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament
BY MATTY D.
Will Underdogs Continue to Cover on Friday after Competing All Day Thursday?
Every year I remind fellow college basketball fans how good underdogs always cover the first half spread. That’s one of the top 5 rules to always follow when betting March Madness on a budget.
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On Thursday, high seed underdogs Howard, McNeese, Penn, High Point, and Siena all covered the first half spreads. For Friday, I can see much of the same thing happening.
Predicted Teams to Cover First Half, Game Spread on Friday: Furman +20.5 California Baptist +14.5 Queens +24.5 Akron +7.5 Tennessee State +24.5
This photo was tweeted shortly after Selection Sunday, showing all of the against the spread picks for Thursday and Friday. Thursday is highlighted in blue and Friday yellow.
Does the Big 12’s Dominance Get Bigger and More Obvious After Friday?
With Duke, and even at times Michigan, struggling against high seeds in the first game of the NCAA Tournament, Big 12 teams like Houston, Iowa State, and Arizona have a chance to show us the separation their conference commands this season. With no clear obvious national contender registering a wire to wire thoroughbred sprint to victory on Thursday, the futures values tickets bought on Wednesday look much better. Having a High Point team beat Wisconsin outright doesn’t hurt. High Point will now play Arkansas, one of my top 10 futures values going into this tournament at 50-1 to win it all.
Click here to read my top 10 Cinderella Super Sleeper teams to Win March Madness:
Not listed in that article is my actual favorite future bet right now, which is not a “Cinderella” pick. Buying into the Big 12 at 2-1 to win a national championship feels like a steal considering how Arizona and Iowa State have manageable paths to the Final Four. TCU even won on Thursday, giving that futures weaponry another bullet.
Thanks for reading along and good luck in the tournament!
Field of 32 Update: Four Super-Sleeper Tickets Still Breathing
With the NCAA Tournament trimmed from the Field of 68 to the surviving 32 teams, five of the original “Cinderella haymaker” futures remain alive: Utah State, St. John’s, Texas, Nebraska, and Arkansas. The national-title betting market has tightened accordingly, with Arkansas now hovering in the roughly +5000 range, while St. John’s has drifted into the long-shot tier around +8000 at major sportsbooks as the bracket pressure intensifies.
Utah State continues to represent classic mid-major upside — a disciplined, veteran roster capable of stringing together upset wins in a wide-open region. Texas, meanwhile, carries the profile of a dangerous power-conference survivor: athletic, battle-tested, and still flying slightly under the radar compared to No. 1-seed headline contenders.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are also alive. They and their opponent, the Vanderbilt Commodores, each contain some value with a price around the 60-1 to 80-1 territory as they try to knock each other out.
Arkansas stands as the most actionable ticket remaining, combining elite guard play with SEC-level physicality that translates well into second-weekend matchups. St. John’s offers the emotional upside of Madison Square Garden energy and Rick Pitino’s tournament pedigree — the kind of narrative fuel that can ignite belief among fans and bettors alike.
At this stage, the value proposition is simple: five live tickets, five different paths to chaos — and a bracket that suddenly feels more open than expected.
Continue reading to see the top 10 that was listed when the 2026 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament began…
Oddsmakers Overlooking these Underdogs as the NCAA Basketball Tourney Begins
If you’re searching for March Madness sleeper picks, NCAA bracket tips, or long-shot teams that could bust your office pool wide open, this breakdown is designed to give you an edge. After watching a full season of college basketball matchups, momentum swings, and injury storylines, I’ve identified five potential Cinderella contenders priced at 60-to-1 odds or longer to win the national championship.
This article lays out the logic behind each pick, using visual scouting, late-season trends, and tournament-style matchup projections to help casual fans and bracket enthusiasts spot undervalued teams before the Madness truly begins.
This is the second edition of this article. A 5-pack of picks was expanded to 10 teams after four of the original picks found themselves in the West Region. In addition to sheer math making it impossible all four teams would make a run to the Sweet 16, those teams also landed in the same region with Arizona on Selection Sunday. Arizona is my pick to win it all. Still, there’s value in these sleepers.
For a printable bracket for March Madness 2026, click here, then see this top 10…
Troy Trojans (500-1 for Final 4) – Sleeper No. 10
Social media and TV producers alike will love this team. If you want a fun story to hitch your wagon to, learn more about the brothers “The Red Mambas.”
McNeese Cowboys (500-1 for Final 4) – Sleeper No. 9
There’s an opportunity cost of not taking McNeese State. Vanderbilt has completely overachieved this season and they should be commended for brining the program back from a rough stretch.
However, McNeese State still passes the eye test despite losing coach Will Wade. They reloaded not only with a few returning players from last year’s field of 32 participants, but they hit the lottery when landing freshman Larry Johnson. He has been one of the most productive freshmen in the nation, in a year where that says a lot, averaging 17.5 per game. McNeese State will not be afraid to play against an SEC opponent and the Commodores need to bring their A+ game to win this one.
It’s important to shop around for future values, especially in this super Cinderella territory. The odds will differ dramatically. For example, McNeese is a 300-1 long-shot to reach a Final Four on DraftKings. On FanDuel, they are a much better price at 500-1 for that same outcome.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (150-1) — Sleeper No. 8
Kicking off this countdown of March Madness sleeper candidates is Nebraska, a team that has quietly built momentum through disciplined shot selection and improved defensive toughness late in the season. The Cornhuskers have shown the ability to dictate tempo in structured half-court settings, a valuable trait in tournament basketball where possessions tighten. When perimeter confidence aligns with physical rebounding effort, Nebraska becomes a far more dangerous matchup than its odds suggest. As the fifth-ranked sleeper on this list, Nebraska represents a battle-tested Big Ten roster capable of disrupting early-round expectations.
Futures tickets on the secondary market at PropSwap for Nebraska were seen around the 155-1 territory on St. Patrick’s Day.
St. John’s Red Storm (80-1) – Sleeper No. 7
I actually like a team that could play them in the Elite 8 (see below), but any chance to grab head coach Rick Pitino at this price is too good to pass up.
Texas Longhorns (400-1) — Sleeper No. 6
Chendall Weaver and the Texas Longhorns might not be a “sleeper” anymore after bursting on the scene in primetime during a play-in game. Weaver showed an incredible spark off the bench as NC State wasn’t able to keep the pace with the Longhorn’s workaholic ways. 7-0 sophomore big man Matas Vokietaitis showed off the perfect footwork down low and the Longhorns might just be the latest in a string of 11 seeds to go on a Sweet 16 run after competing in the play-in game.
California Baptist (2,000-1) — Sleeper No. 5
California Baptist has one of the best 5 scorers in the nation and is playing a team that has been very shaky down the stretch. Another lesson we’ve learned from recent tournament scripts is that when teams show us who they are (being a worsening team)… believe them.
Missouri Tigers (200-1) — Sleeper No. 4
Next in this sleeper countdown is Missouri, whose profile centers on interior efficiency and late-game composure. The Tigers feature multiple frontcourt contributors who finish effectively in the paint while also drawing fouls at a steady rate. That physical presence gives Missouri a path to control tempo against more perimeter-oriented opponents. Defensive length and rebounding stability further enhance their upset potential in grind-it-out matchups. As the fourth-ranked sleeper, Missouri offers a blend of size and toughness that could translate into bracket volatility.
As this countdown narrows toward the top overall value pick, Arkansas emerges as the most explosive high-major sleeper on the board. Freshman point guard Darius Acuff Jr. has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to take over games with confident shot creation and fearless late-clock scoring. That kind of dynamic guard play is often the defining ingredient in deep March runs. Arkansas also shows improving defensive intensity and transition scoring upside, traits that can fuel multiple upset wins. Positioned as the No. 2 sleeper in this ranking, the Razorbacks offer star-driven volatility at attractive long-shot odds.
The Razorbacks were 60-1 on Selection Sunday morning before winning the SEC title and moving to 50-1 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Utah State Aggies (200-1) — Sleeper No. 2 Overall Value
Finishing this sleeper countdown at the top spot is Utah State, whose toughness, cohesion, and competitive edge make them the most intriguing long-shot championship value on the board. The Aggies consistently display urgency on loose balls and defensive rotations, characteristics that translate well to neutral-floor tournament play. Their offensive rhythm and efficient scoring stretches suggest a team capable of sustaining momentum across multiple rounds. Notably, Utah State was briefly spotted at 500-to-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook on Selection Sunday, a rare market discount that underscores how quickly sleeper perception can shift. As the No. 1 value pick in this countdown, the Aggies combine effort, chemistry, and price to form a classic Cinderella profile.
🐶 Utah State is loaded with dogs who want it!!! Aztecs are a tourney team too. Look at this effort 👀 pic.twitter.com/VtetQ2Ehdt
South Florida Bulls (125-1 for a Final Four) — Sleeper No. 1
At the midpoint of this countdown sits South Florida, one of the nation’s most statistically intriguing sleeper teams because of its elite offensive rebounding production. The Bulls consistently generate second-chance opportunities, allowing them to remain competitive even during cold shooting stretches. That relentless effort on the glass also forces foul trouble and disrupts rhythm for higher-seeded opponents. Teams that create extra possessions naturally increase tournament variance — the lifeblood of Cinderella runs. Ranked third on this sleeper list, USF brings energy and physicality that can drag favorites into uncomfortable games.
Each March, the NCAA Tournament introduces college basketball fans to a new group of mid-major champions who earned automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments. This blog article will evaluate the visual “eye test” qualities of each mid-major team that secured a place in the 2026 Men’s College Basketball Tournament bracket, focusing on those who punched their ticket prior to Gonzaga.
While Gonzaga appears on this conference outline, the program is widely regarded as a national power despite competing in a traditionally weaker conference structure. The goal of this article is to provide quick-hit visual scouting impressions of these mid-major qualifiers.
BY MATTY D.
Tennessee State Jumps Off the Page when Comparing Hype to the Eye Test
One of the first teams to punch their tickets to the 2026 Men’s College Basketball Tournament could be one of the most dangerous and dramatic upset candidates in the entire tourney. If you like riding underdogs on your bracket, you may enjoy how this team’s entry will be old news by the time Selection Sunday gets sorted out.
Guard Aaron Nkrumah absolutely jumps off the page. Or, should I say, he jumps off the TV screen with athleticism. The bouncy 6-6 senior scored 14 points in the championship win against Morehead State, but it was actually noteworthy that the Tigers enjoyed five players scoring in the teens during that game. This is on par with how Tennessee State has been finishing up its regular season. Since losing its last time this season to Morehead State, the Tigers have been beating teams by an average of 18 points, including two lopsided wins of 27 and 26 points against SIUE and Morehead State, respectively.
If you needed any more reasons to like Tennessee State as a sleeper team, consider its head coach. This past summer, former 4-year starting Duke point guard Nolan Smith was announced at the Tigers head coach. This, after serving as an assistant with Memphis and Louisville.
“Smith spent his entire playing career at Duke under Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski, widely regarded as one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history. That experience helped shape Smith’s foundation as a tactician, motivator, and leader.”
Seniority “On Brand” as UNI Finds the Field Once Again
In this age of NIL, it’s hard to find examples of seniority thriving in college basketball.
Yet, there’s a perfect example of hard work paying off in the Missouri Valley Conference. The University of Northern Iowa is led by 4-year senior guard Trey Campbell, who also led an Iowa high school team to a state championship.
Of course, it wouldn’t be “on brand” to say that UNI is a one man show. Campbell leads the team with 13 points per game, but has four other teammates averaging around double digits.
Northern Iowa also has seniority when it comes to its long tenured head coach. Ben Jacobson has been at the helm for the Panthers since 2006.
Furman Finds Itself As Another Fiesty 6 Seed to Fight Its Way Into the Tournament
Ironically, both the Furman Paladins and that Northern Iowa Panthers teams are making it into the tournament as former 6 seeds in their own conferences.
Furman is a well-put-together roster with capable athletes everywhere. Led by a true freshman in Alex Wilkins, he has brothers Cooper and Cole Bowser attacking the rim at his side.
Not only do UNI and Furman share similarities as 6 seeds to win their conference championship, but they also squared off earlier this season in non-conference play.
Former Syracuse Fan Favorite Fanning the Flames of Upstate New York Revival
If you live in New York, you might be happy to hear that three of the first 11 teams to make the NCAA Tournament are from the Empire State. Upstate New York may have been hopeful of a rejuvenation of Syracuse basketball with Carmelo Anthony’s son playing for the orange and blue.
However, it’s another former Syracuse Orange player who is making a splash.
Syracuse cult hero Gerry McNamara, aka “G-Mac” has led another Upstate New York program to prominence. You’ll remember Gerry McNamara as the starting point guard on the 2001 Syracuse Orange championship team. Now, the Siena Saints of the capital region will return to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament with McNamara as their head coach.
Siena Saints head coach Gerry McNamara courtesy SienaSaints.com Potographer Josh Miller
True to the script of how the universe is unfolding as it should, McNamara’s Saints are led by another gritty undersized under-recruited combo guard from Upstate New York. Gavin Doty of Fulton, NY is averaging 18 points for the Saints in his sophomore season. Siena was dominating Merrimack in the MAC Championship game in the first half before they had to fend off a more serious run.
What Else You Should Know about the First 10 Teams to Make March Madness 2026
As the bracket continues to take shape, six additional mid-major champions who punched their tickets before Gonzaga deserve at least a quick closing nod. Queens (N.C.) arrives from the ASUN with one of the nation’s most aggressive transition attacks, routinely pushing tempo behind dynamic guard play. High Point leaned on a prolific perimeter scoring profile during its Big South title run, spacing the floor with multiple double-figure shooters. Wright State brings a physically imposing interior presence that has powered one of the Horizon League’s most efficient paint-scoring units. Long Island surged late with disruptive on-ball pressure that fueled a top-tier steal rate in Northeast Conference play. And North Dakota State, long respected for disciplined execution, once again showcased a methodical half-court offense that finished near the top of the Summit League in shooting efficiency — a reminder that even in a tournament defined by chaos, structure and shot-making still travel well when the lights get brightest. Hofstra returns to March Madness with a reputation for elite ball security, consistently ranking among conference leaders in assist-to-turnover efficiency.
The Ticket of Integrity: Saturday’s Smartest College Hoops Plays
A loaded slate of college basketball action means it’s time to lock in a Saturday ticket that blends sharp lines, big matchups, and teams with something to prove. This one’s dubbed The Ticket of Integrity, and there’s a lot to like. Let’s break it down pick by pick.
Florida Gators -9.5
The Gators are rolling at home and have a clear edge in both talent and tempo. They’ve been dominant in Gainesville lately, and their aggressive defense tends to overwhelm lesser opponents. Against a team that struggles to score in bunches, Florida should build a lead and keep the foot on the gas. Expect them to cover with some breathing room.
Baylor Bears +12.5
Baylor isn’t your typical double-digit underdog. Even in tough road environments, their backcourt is experienced and battle-tested. This line feels inflated—possibly reacting to a strong opponent—but Baylor’s ability to control pace and knock down timely threes makes them dangerous. They don’t even have to win, just keep it close—and they’re more than capable of that.
Jeremy Roach isn’t the only point guard who is playing his former team for a chance to advance. Roach plays a Duke program he spent three seasons with, but Tre Donaldson will be playing against his old Auburn team for a shot at the Elite 8. This fascination with revenge games, or at least awkward matchups among exes, is one of several trends fixed as annual traditions in recent years. Click here to read 5 more traditions that we now see on an every year basis.
Kentucky Wildcats +2
Kentucky’s youth is starting to gel at the right time. When they’re locked in, this is one of the most offensively explosive teams in the country. They’ll have the best player on the floor and a coaching edge in late-game scenarios. Getting them as an underdog is rare value—this is a live dog play all the way.
Alabama Crimson Tide -250 (Moneyline)
Alabama at home is a different beast. Their offensive firepower, led by elite guard play, can torch defenses in a hurry. While laying -250 on the moneyline is steep, this is about securing a key piece of the parlay with a team unlikely to lose outright. The Tide roll here—plain and simple.
Ironically, St. Mary’s remains one of my top remaining underdog values in the tournament. Click here to see what teams I had identified as the best 5 future values once the tourney began.
Iowa State Cyclones -5.5
Cyclone Nation is built on suffocating defense and Hilton Magic. Iowa State’s ability to force turnovers and control tempo makes them a nightmare matchup, especially in Ames. With a manageable spread, they’re in a perfect spot to not just win, but win decisively. Trust the home court to deliver once again.
Maryland Terrapins -7.5
The Terps have quietly become one of the more consistent home teams in conference play. Their defense has clamped down lately, and they’ve shown they can string together scoring runs that bury teams quickly. Against a weaker opponent, Maryland should flex early and often. A double-digit win is well within reach.
Arizona Wildcats -3.5
When Arizona is humming, they look like a Final Four team. Their inside-out balance and high tempo can overwhelm opponents who aren’t used to that kind of pace. With tournament positioning on the line, expect a focused effort and a margin that clears the number. The Wildcats know what’s at stake—and they’ll play like it.
We are sweetening the pot for the most intriguing thing about March Madness, rooting for the underdogs, by selling some futures tickets on our favorite underdogs to win the tourney. Blogger Matty D. has invested in all of these teams and will be riding the bandwagon with you. However, it’s time to hedge and sell off a portion of these shares as these teams are gaining value.
These futures tickets for the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament are listed on PropSwap.com, which is a secondary marketplace to resell physical tickets.
Texas A&M Futures Ticket for Resale Ahead of Major Matchup against Michigan
Wade Taylor IV and the Aggies are moving on after knocking off another one of my favorite future values this season, the Yale Bulldogs. They’ll square up against Michigan, which is a tough matchup with the two 7-footers they run out there. However, one of Texas A&M’s best assets is its depth. They’ll have plenty of bodies and plenty of fouls to throw at the Wolverines. Next up, a potential rematch with SEC foe Auburn. If Auburn’s first half performance against Alabama State is any indication, the Tigers could be vulnerable. If the Aggies get past those two challenging matchups, the sky is the limit. The Aggies also just beat Auburn to finish its historically great regular season (beating a #1 overall ranked team for the first time in its 100+ year history).
Saint Mary’s Futures Ticket for Resale for Those Who Like to Grind Out Wins
There are more exciting teams to watch than St. Mary’s, but the Gaels are good enough to make a Final Four. They have veteran leadership, have an identity with their methodical pace, and have beaten a good Gonzaga team on multiple occasions this season. Therefore, they’re proven.
Join the Drake Train While You Can at a Crazy Number for a Huge Payout
At the time that this ticket was listed, it was the first and only Drake ticket listed on the PropSwap marketplace. Therefore, let the bidding begin at 100-1!
If you watched Drake dismantle a good Missouri team, it’s not hard to imagine this ticket gaining value. PropSwap currently has this ticket rated as a “poor” value, but I disagree!
PropSwap is not a sponsor of this article. For business inquiries about this blog, please email mattydmedia@gmail.com today.
Each year unlikely but not uncommon March Madness traditions rear their ugly, gorgeous heads
Play-In Game Winners Gain Momentum and Beat the Odds
In 2025, North Carolina demolished San Diego State, a historically great defensive program. Their decisive win silenced all of their detractors who said they didn’t belong in the tournament. It also turned up the volume on this tradition that is no longer a cute trend. One of the most dangerous seeds in the entire bracket is the 11 seed.
Every year, an 11 seed that finds its mojo in Dayton. As improbable as this sounds, the play-in game winner becomes very dangerous. Those teams carry momentum. They get the natural advantage of getting familiar with the arena on a Tuesday or Wednesday before they play the at-large opponent on Thursday or Friday.
In 2022, 11-seeded Notre Dame beat Rutgers in a close (play-in) game and then crushed 6-seeded Alabama by 14 points in the next matchup. Notre Dame then gave 3-seed Texas Tech trouble before losing by 6 points.
In 2021, UCLA won its play-in game as an 11 seed and continued its magical run all the way to the Final Four.
In 2018, Syracuse made the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed after beating Arizona State in the play-in game.
In 2017, 11-seed USC upset (4-loss) SMU in the first round after winning its play-in game.
In 2016, Fred VanVleet and the 11-seed Wichita State Shockers beat Vanderbilt in the playoff game before upsetting 6-seed Arizona.
And so this trend of the 11 seed gaining momentum…is gaining momentum.
Fun fact: In the last 30 years, an 11 seed is much more likely to make a Final Four as compared to a 6 seed. The last 6 seed to make a Final Four was the Fab Five in 1993. Meantime, there have been four 11 seeds to make the Final Four since 2006 (George Mason, VCU, Loyola Chicago, and UCLA).
Sunday’s Made-for-TV Matchup Returns
The potential Baylor vs. Duke matchup on Sunday looms as another prime-time showdown tailor-made for TV drama. CBS and the NCAA continue their tradition of arranging Sunday games that capture maximum attention and create compelling narratives. This is nothing new. Wichita State basketball fans still aren’t over the letdown of losing to 8-seed Kentucky on Sunday, March 23rd, 2014.
Illinois basketball fans can relate, as the committee arranged a Sunday matinee for Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago to renew their Cinderella ways against an in-state foe in 2021. Loyola was arguably a top-10 team nationally, yet they were given a 9 seed, ensuring a high-profile matchup with 1-seed Illinois within the first weekend. It was just too good of a television programming moment for the committee and/or television executives to pass up.
Fear the Nation’s Leading Scorer, Regardless of Seed Line
If CJ McCollum and Harold “The Show” Arceneaux haven’t taught us anything, then Max Abmas and Oral Roberts made it officially official: The scoring abilities of a guard who ranks in the top five (or first overall) nationwide can translate in the tournament.
History tells us to keep an eye on these types of players!
Shaky Teams Get Shocked in the First Showdown
Sometimes when a roster is stacked with first-round projected NBA picks, that doesn’t always equate to Final Four finishes. Oftentimes, these players are preoccupied with other priorities.
Shaky tournament résumés are not limited to flawed mid-majors or inconsistent veteran teams. Even rosters featuring elite NBA lottery talent can fall short of the Elite Eight, reinforcing how fragile March success can be. See our #2 tradition below for more on that phenomena.
Some more specific team examples come to mind in recent years. With two losses in late February and an early exit from the SEC Tournament, perhaps we should have seen the 2021-22 Kentucky Wildcats struggling with 15-seed Saint Peter’s in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is another team that lost to this same Saint Peter’s bunch. The Boilermakers also showed signs of trouble late in the season. They lost three games in the final two weeks of the regular season (at Michigan State, at Wisconsin, and home to Iowa). Do we expect Purdue to be undefeated the final two weeks in a tough Big Ten gauntlet of a schedule? No. Were the warning signs there for a team stacked with NBA talent? Yes.
Future NBA Greats Don’t Always Dominate
Tre Johnson, the freshman phenom at Texas, is the player to watch in this category. If he’s as dominant as advertised, he has a path to shine. He would have winnable games against Illinois and Kentucky if his bracket broke according to the favorites. However, history tells us that not all elite prospects make deep runs in the tournament.
If you’re a fan of 1990s NBA hoops, think of the best players of the past three decades who actually played some college basketball: Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan. None made a Final Four. In fact, most of these greats struggled to advance beyond the first weekend. Conversely, media darlings like Jimmer Fredette and Luka Garza became National Players of the Year yet never cracked the Sweet 16.
Kevin Durant remains one of the most famous examples, producing one of the greatest freshman seasons in modern college basketball history at Texas yet still exiting before the regional finals. More recently, Cade Cunningham carried Oklahoma State as the projected No. 1 overall pick in 2021, only to see the Cowboys upset in the Round of 32. Jabari Smith Jr. faced a similar fate the following season, when a highly seeded Auburn team bowed out on the tournament’s first weekend despite his status as a top-three draft selection. Brandon Miller’s 2023 Alabama squad advanced further but still could not break through to the Elite Eight, falling short of the program’s lofty expectations during his dominant freshman campaign.
And while they are often cited as cautionary tales of star power without postseason payoff, both 1st overall picks in the NBA Draft Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons did not reach the NCAA Tournament at all during their lone college seasons!
Collectively, these cases underscore a recurring reality for bettors and bracket analysts alike: even transcendent individual talent rarely guarantees a deep March run when team form, matchup dynamics, and late-season warning signs begin to surface.
Committee’s Fascination with Reunions and Revenge Games
The orchestration of great storylines goes beyond Sunday matchups. The committee loves arranging revenge games and reuniting old foes. A potential Kansas vs. Missouri game could dictate who makes an Elite Eight from the former Big Eight conference. It’s not the first time the committee has set up a meeting between exes. In case you don’t know the history, the rivalry between Kansas and Missouri goes back to the violent quarrels that led up to the Civil War itself.
The most recent example is how Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer played against his old team in round one. The committee didn’t even wait for the field of 32 to reunite that broken relationship! It happens frequently for coaches, too. One example that comes to mind is when 11-seeded Arizona State got paired with 6-seeded Buffalo in the first round, setting up an awkward meeting between Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley and his former school. Not only did Buffalo face their ex-coach, but they did so in their highest-ever tournament seeding, making for compelling drama. Buffalo beat Arizona State in 2019, proving once again that storylines drive the bracket.
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The madness has arrived, and with it comes the challenge of picking winners against the spread. With upsets brewing and lines set to tempt bettors, I’m locking in my best plays for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The key? Taking value where the market gives it and, in the case of BYU and Michigan, paying a small premium on the money line to avoid sweating the points.
This game should be an old-fashioned pick ‘em. Both teams have the talent to make a run, and I don’t see a clear favorite here. When that’s the case, I’m gladly taking the 2.5 points with Creighton, knowing they have just as much of a chance to win outright as Louisville.
High Point (+8.5) vs. Purdue
Purdue isn’t a No. 1 seed this year, but they still have the size and experience to be dangerous. That said, High Point is built to cover this spread. Their perimeter shooting and ability to speed up the pace make them a sneaky play at +8.5.
Montana (+16.5) vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin plays a slow, grinding style, which makes covering a big number like 16.5 tough. Montana should be able to keep this game within reach simply by limiting possessions and playing solid defense.
McNeese State (+7.5) vs. Clemson
McNeese is one of the strongest mid-majors in this tournament, and they match up well against Clemson. Their defense and ability to control the tempo make them a live dog here. I’ll take the 7.5 points with confidence.
BYU (Money Line, -142) vs. VCU
Rather than sweating BYU covering the spread, I’m backing them on the money lineat -142. The Cougars have the edge in talent and efficiency, and I trust them to win outright without worrying about VCU sneaking in a late cover.
Georgia (+6.5) vs. Gonzaga
This isn’t the same dominant Gonzaga team we’ve seen in years past. Georgia has the athleticism to keep this one close, and they’re more than capable of hanging within 6.5 points.
Arkansas (+4.5) vs. Kansas
Kansas has been shaky down the stretch, and Arkansas has the athleticism and defensive intensity to make this a dogfight. With Kansas showing inconsistency, I’ll take the Razorbacks and the 4.5 points.
Yale (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M
The Ivy League has a history of bracket-busting, and Yale fits the mold of a team that can make things uncomfortable for a higher seed. Their methodical offense and tough defense should keep this game close, making 7.5 points an easy take.
What makes Yale one of the best overall underdogs in the tournament is their continuity and discipline. The Bulldogs don’t rely on one or two star players; they execute as a unit, making them less susceptible to off-nights from individual performers. They also control tempo exceptionally well, which forces more athletic teams into uncomfortable half-court battles. That’s a nightmare for an opponent like Texas A&M, which thrives in transition. If you’re looking for an underdog with serious long-term value, Yale deserves your attention.
Drake has already proven they can compete with Power Five schools. Missouri has been inconsistent, and this feels like a classic mid-major value pick. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Drake wins outright.
Beyond this game, Drake is one of the best underdog teams in the entire tournament field. The biggest reason? Bennett Stirtz. He’s the smoothest point guard in the country that no one is talking about. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent from the Kansas City area and transfers from Northwest Missouri State, where new head coach Ben McCollum has built a championship-winning culture.
McCollum’s dominance at the Division II level—where he won four national titles and posted an 81.2% career win rate—is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His system is proven, and now he has the resources and talent to execute it on a larger stage. Expect his winning mentality and attention to detail to make Drake one of the most dangerous low seeds in the entire field.
Another spot where I’m avoiding the spread and simply backing Michigan to win outright. UC San Diego is no pushover, but Michigan’s talent gap should be enough to get the job done. I’ll take the money line at -150 rather than sweating a possible tight finish.
UNC Wilmington (+15.5) vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech can score, but they also allow teams to hang around. UNC Wilmington has the offensive tools to keep this from getting out of hand, making 15.5 points too good to pass up.
St. John’s is built to run teams out of the gym, and Omaha doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. When the Red Storm get rolling, they don’t let up, and I expect this one to be over early. Lay the 18.5 and trust the blowout.
Thursday’s Games with Huge Favorites
There are a handful of Thursday games that I’m passing on simply because the spreads are too outrageous to find real value. These include Auburn vs. Alabama State/Saint Francis, Florida vs. Norfolk State, Duke vs. American/Mount St. Mary’s, Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville, and Tennessee vs. Wofford. These matchups feature top-seeded teams against overmatched opponents, where the favorites are more than capable of running away with the game—but covering a massive number in the first round is always a gamble. While a few of these underdogs might hang around early, there’s too much risk in relying on them to keep it close for 40 minutes or expecting the favorites to stay locked in for a full blowout cover. Sometimes, the best play is no play at all.
Final Thoughts
This tournament is full of value plays, and I’m taking a mix of live underdogs and sharp money line bets to maximize profit potential. BYU and Michigan are worth paying a small premium to avoid the spread, while teams like Drake, Yale, and McNeese could all exceed expectations. If you’re looking for underdogs that can make a deep run, check out the full list of the top 5 underdogs for futures bets!
When I say “the committee,” what do you think of? If you envision the power players who sit together on Selection Sunday to reveal the most unrivaled postseason format in U.S. Sports History, you would be correct. The committee is just days (or maybe hours depending on when you’re reading this) away from unveiling the Division 1 Men’s College Basketball Tournament bracket. With so many superior teams at the top of the rankings, there are sure to be some intriguing matchups with the middle of the pack. As much attention and sometimes scorn that this group gets, the tournament committee routinely fixes matchups that offer awesome storylines.
(This is one of 6 fixed traditions that I expect each year from the bracket – click here to see those).
And while you anxiously await the bracket, here are 5 fun matchups to hope for.
Border War Between Missouri and Kansas Could Re-ignite
The rivalry between Kansas and Missouri dates back much further than the Jayhawks and the Tigers. It dates back to the conflicts that preceded the American Civil War. Therefore, this basketball matchup was always a highly intense event. Kansas and Missouri spent years battling it out on the hardwood as they were Big 12 (or Big 8) conference rivals. In recent years, Missouri joined the SEC but had the good sense to still respect this history and schedule a non-conference matchup against each other. Although this has led to plenty of hotly contested games, nothing would stir the pot more dramatically than head-to-head combat in the NCAA Tournament.
The author of this blog is also a YouTube producer who created a horror stories series featuring many ghost stories dating back to Bleeding Kansas Era. Click here to watch some.
With KU struggling to finish its season strong, it could be dropping to a 6 or 7 seed. This could put them in position to play a 2 or 3 seeded Missouri Tigers team in the field of 32.
The violent confrontations between Kansas and Missouri during the Civil War era are commonly referred to as “Bleeding Kansas” or the “Border War.” These terms describe the series of violent civil confrontations between pro-slavery and anti-slavery forces in the Kansas Territory and western Missouri between 1854 and 1859. The conflict was characterized by electoral fraud, raids, assaults, and murders carried out by pro-slavery “border ruffians” and retaliatory raids by anti-slavery “free-staters.” This period of violence significantly shaped American politics and contributed to the onset of the Civil War.
Pitinos Pitted Against Each Other?
When it comes to teams he previously coached, legend Rick Pitino has plenty of exes. There’s Iona, Louisville, Kentucky — all of which could make this year’s tourney. And if the NCAA Tournament bracket falls into place just right, college basketball fans could witness a rare and emotionally charged showdown between a father and son on the sidelines. St. John’s is having a storybook season where Pitino has resurrected the program to already clinch a Big East regular season title as March begins.
With Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad projected as a potential No. 2 or 3 seed, and his son Richard Pitino’s New Mexico team positioned as a dangerous 10 or 11 seed, the path to an unforgettable coaching clash is on the table. Should the Lobos pull off a first-round victory, the second-round matchup could pit the legendary Hall of Fame coach against his own son, turning the family dynamic into a high-stakes chess match on college basketball’s biggest stage. It would be a moment filled with pride, strategy, and inevitable heartbreak—one Pitino would move on, the other would go home.
Chucky’s Revenge
Now that the transfer portal has become a mainstay of how college basketball rosters are filled out, there will be no shortage of opportunities for awkward reunions. Players who thought they were tranfersring to greener pastures will undoubtedly face a program that has done fine without them, also qualifying for the tourney. Among those intriguing storylines brewing—one that could pit Louisville’s Chucky Hepburn against his former Wisconsin team in a high-stakes, win-or-go-home battle. With both programs eyeing a spot in the field of 68, a potential reunion on the court wouldn’t just be compelling—it would be personal.
Hepburn, who spent three seasons as Wisconsin’s floor general before transferring to Louisville, has quickly become an integral piece for the Cardinals. His defensive tenacity and poise under pressure once made him a beloved figure in Madison, but now, those same traits could spell trouble for the Badgers should they meet in the tournament. Depending on how the bracket shakes out, Louisville could enter as a lower-seeded team looking to pull off an upset, while Wisconsin’s steadier season might earn them a more favorable placement. That kind of disparity would only heighten the drama if the two programs are matched up in the early rounds.
If the selection committee delivers this potential clash, fans would be treated to a rare and emotionally charged battle where Hepburn’s deep knowledge of Wisconsin’s system could work in Louisville’s favor. Would his familiarity with Greg Gard’s schemes give the Cardinals an edge? Or would the Badgers’ defense, one he helped define during his tenure in Madison, have the perfect blueprint to shut him down?
Fingerprints of Former Florida Atlantic Stars All Over Tourney Bracket
Speaking of the transfer portal, the Cinderella story of the 2023 NCAA Tournament will have its fingerprints all over this college basketball bracket. Four former Owls—Johnell Davis (Arkansas), Alijah Martin (Florida), Vladislav Goldin (Michigan), and Nick Boyd (San Diego State) are all key contributors on their new teams. With each of their squads in the mix for a March Madness berth, the tournament could deliver an emotional reunion—this time as opponents.
Davis, the explosive guard who helped lead FAU’s magical run, has brought his scoring prowess to Arkansas, while Martin is making his presence felt at Florida. Goldin, a dominant force in the paint, provides Michigan with size and rim protection, and Boyd’s veteran leadership has been crucial for a normally mature San Diego State program.
Even the 2023 FAU’s head coach Dusty May could resurface in this storyline. He cashed in the 2023 run for a head coaching position at Michigan and took Vladislav Goldin with him.
Even Brenen Lorient, a role player at best on that FAU Final 4 team, could pop onto the radar screen. His North Texas Mean Green team wouldn’t be a big surprise to win the American Athletic Conference tournament because they’re currently slated as a 2 seed there. They’d likely have to knock off AP Top 25 team Memphis in the process.
If you are looking for fun future parlays to play for a small investment but huge payout involving college hoops, you’ve come to the right place.
Kansas City Chiefs and Kansas Jayhawks Championship Parlay Ticket for Sale
If you can envision the parade route in front of Union Station painted red in February before Mass Street gets swarmed with Crimson and Blue in March (and April), then this future is for you.
At the sports-books, a ticket teaming up two Hall of Fame coaches in Andy Reid and Bill Self will currently go for about 100-1. You can pay a small premium and buy it here through PropSwap today before the Chiefs have their way with the Houston Texans.
Detroit Lions and Michigan Wolverines Championship Parlay Ticket for Sale
Is Detroit a Michigan Wolverine town or a Michigan State Spartans city? The good news for state residents is that both of their basketball teams are currently slated to make the 2025 NCAA Tournament. And as intimidating as Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell is on the sidelines, two 7-footers for the Wolverines are looking even more intimidating as Big 10 play rolls on.
We have a Sweet 16 in December! College basketball fans could be practicing their bracket-filling skills during this rare opportunity. The FIFA 2022 World Cup is being played in Qatar in the winter this unprecedented year. First grade teachers nationwide would be proud of the hand-writing skills being put to the test at office printers nationwide.
College Basketball Eye Test 
