Tag Archives: College Basketball Eye Test

Sunday Game Picks for NCAA Men’s College Basketball March Madness

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The Ticket of Integrity: Saturday’s Smartest College Hoops Plays

A loaded slate of college basketball action means it’s time to lock in a Saturday ticket that blends sharp lines, big matchups, and teams with something to prove. This one’s dubbed The Ticket of Integrity, and there’s a lot to like. Let’s break it down pick by pick.

Florida Gators -9.5

The Gators are rolling at home and have a clear edge in both talent and tempo. They’ve been dominant in Gainesville lately, and their aggressive defense tends to overwhelm lesser opponents. Against a team that struggles to score in bunches, Florida should build a lead and keep the foot on the gas. Expect them to cover with some breathing room.

Baylor Bears +12.5

Baylor isn’t your typical double-digit underdog. Even in tough road environments, their backcourt is experienced and battle-tested. This line feels inflated—possibly reacting to a strong opponent—but Baylor’s ability to control pace and knock down timely threes makes them dangerous. They don’t even have to win, just keep it close—and they’re more than capable of that.

Jeremy Roach isn’t the only point guard who is playing his former team for a chance to advance. Roach plays a Duke program he spent three seasons with, but Tre Donaldson will be playing against his old Auburn team for a shot at the Elite 8. This fascination with revenge games, or at least awkward matchups among exes, is one of several trends fixed as annual traditions in recent years. Click here to read 5 more traditions that we now see on an every year basis.

Kentucky Wildcats +2

Kentucky’s youth is starting to gel at the right time. When they’re locked in, this is one of the most offensively explosive teams in the country. They’ll have the best player on the floor and a coaching edge in late-game scenarios. Getting them as an underdog is rare value—this is a live dog play all the way.

Alabama Crimson Tide -250 (Moneyline)

Alabama at home is a different beast. Their offensive firepower, led by elite guard play, can torch defenses in a hurry. While laying -250 on the moneyline is steep, this is about securing a key piece of the parlay with a team unlikely to lose outright. The Tide roll here—plain and simple.

Ironically, St. Mary’s remains one of my top remaining underdog values in the tournament.
Click here to see what teams I had identified as the best 5 future values once the tourney began.

Iowa State Cyclones -5.5

Cyclone Nation is built on suffocating defense and Hilton Magic. Iowa State’s ability to force turnovers and control tempo makes them a nightmare matchup, especially in Ames. With a manageable spread, they’re in a perfect spot to not just win, but win decisively. Trust the home court to deliver once again.

Maryland Terrapins -7.5

The Terps have quietly become one of the more consistent home teams in conference play. Their defense has clamped down lately, and they’ve shown they can string together scoring runs that bury teams quickly. Against a weaker opponent, Maryland should flex early and often. A double-digit win is well within reach.

Arizona Wildcats -3.5

When Arizona is humming, they look like a Final Four team. Their inside-out balance and high tempo can overwhelm opponents who aren’t used to that kind of pace. With tournament positioning on the line, expect a focused effort and a margin that clears the number. The Wildcats know what’s at stake—and they’ll play like it.

🏆 Final 4 Fan-Favorite Articles 🏆

🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀

Let’s see if the Ticket of Integrity lives up to the name. Seven plays, one ticket, all winners? We’ll find out soon enough.

Friday’s March Madness Games, Odds, Picks from College Basketball Eye Test

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On Thursday the Men’s College Basketball Tournament got started in fitting fashion with two underdogs looking like title contenders but now it’s time to quickly turn attention to Friday’s games. Drake and McNeese State opened eyes across the nation not only beating their power conference opponents (Missouri and Clemson respectively), but looking like a dark-horse candidate for a Final 4 run in the process.

Click here for the Ultimate College Basketball Blog Hub

Yale got yanked from the tournament. They were my lone futures underdog that didn’t survive Thursday’s action. See my top 4 remaining underdog futures by clicking here.

1. Liberty +6.5 vs. Oregon (Grade: A+)

Liberty getting 6.5 against Oregon felt like a steal, and this one tops the list for good reason. The Flames have been a tough out all year with a disciplined system and three-point shooting that can keep them in any game. Colin Porter is a jitter bug undersized point guard who is fun to watch but hard to stay in front of. Catching nearly a touchdown against an Oregon team still figuring itself out? Chef’s kiss.

2. Grand Canyon +10.5 vs. Maryland (Grade: A)

This one had “sharp” written all over it. Grand Canyon has quietly become a defensive juggernaut in their conference, and catching double digits against an up-and-down Maryland squad was just too good to pass up. Even more appealing: Terps head coach Kevin Willard is surrounded by speculation as the potential next Villanova hire. With that kind of distraction hovering over the program, 10.5 points looks even tastier.

3. UConn ML vs. Oklahoma (Grade: A-)

Taking the reigning champs on the money line at a reasonable -192 was a smart anchor to this parlay. UConn’s size, depth, and defensive prowess make them a reliable choice in high-pressure games like this one, and Oklahoma just doesn’t have the tools to match them bucket-for-bucket.

4. Marquette ML vs. New Mexico (Grade: A-)

Another safe money line pick that added stability to the slate. Marquette’s high-octane offense and Shaka Smart’s defensive scheme give them an edge over New Mexico, even if the Lobos are no slouches. Laying -166 felt like a worthy investment.

5. Baylor +1.5 vs. Mississippi State (Grade: A-)

Catching points with Baylor? Yes, please. This Bears team is deep and battle-tested, and while Mississippi State is gritty, they don’t quite have the offensive firepower to pull away. This one had “tight game decided late” written all over it—perfect for that +1.5.

6. Bryant +17.5 vs. Michigan State (Grade: A-)

Taking Bryant with the points may have raised some eyebrows, but 17.5 is a lot to cover, even for Michigan State. Bryant has enough shooters and tempo control to keep it respectable, and the Spartans haven’t exactly been lighting it up offensively this season.

HALFTIME: You’ve reached the half-way mark of this article. Bookmark your next click…

🏆 Final 4 Fan-Favorite Articles:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀

7. Iowa State -14.5 vs. Lipscomb (Grade: A-)

A big number to lay, but Iowa State’s defense can suffocate mid-majors like Lipscomb. Once the Cyclones get rolling, they’re capable of creating scoring runs that blow things open fast. This felt like a smart move, even with the wide spread.

8. Arizona -13.5 vs. Akron (Grade: B+)

Arizona has the firepower to cover this kind of spread, but Akron isn’t a pushover. This pick leaned on Arizona’s athletic edge and transition game, which can turn a close game into a rout in a matter of minutes. Solid pick, just a bit of a sweat.

9. Alabama -22.5 vs. Robert Morris (Grade: B+)

This was a swing for the fences. Alabama can certainly run it up, and Robert Morris simply doesn’t have the horses to hang, but covering 22.5 requires perfection. High upside, but some risk baked in.

10. Saint Mary’s ML vs. Vanderbilt (Grade: B)

This one was all about trusting the system. Saint Mary’s grinds teams down and controls tempo as well as anyone, but Vanderbilt is athletic enough to throw them off rhythm. Still, at -170, it was a calculated play that made sense. St. Mary’s is one of my favorite values for futures betting. Click here to see which of those underdog teams are still remaining.

11. Kentucky -10.5 vs. Troy (Grade: B-)

Kentucky should absolutely take care of business against Troy, even on a neutral court. But covering 10.5 depends on which version of the Wildcats shows up. They’ve been erratic at times, especially with young lineups, which makes this one a little dicey despite the talent gap.

12. Memphis +2.5 vs. Colorado State (Grade: C-)

This was the most volatile pick on the card. Memphis has talent, but they’re wildly inconsistent, and Colorado State is one of those fundamentally sound teams that just doesn’t beat itself. Taking Memphis here was a gut play—and the gut doesn’t always win.

6 March Madness Trends Fixed as Annual Traditions in 2025

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BY MATT DE SARLE

Each year unlikely but not uncommon March Madness traditions rear their ugly, gorgeous heads

  1. Play-In Game Winners Gain Momentum and Beat the Odds

In 2025, North Carolina demolished San Diego State, a historically great defensive program. Their decisive win silenced all of their detractors who said they didn’t belong in the tournament. It also turned up the volume on this tradition that is no longer a cute trend. One of the most dangerous seeds in the entire bracket is the 11 seed.

Every year, an 11 seed that finds its mojo in Dayton. As improbable as this sounds, the play-in game winner becomes very dangerous. Those teams carry momentum. They get the natural advantage of getting familiar with the arena on a Tuesday or Wednesday before they play the at-large opponent on Thursday or Friday.

In 2022, 11-seeded Notre Dame beat Rutgers in a close (play-in) game and then crushed 6-seeded Alabama by 14 points in the next matchup. Notre Dame then gave 3-seed Texas Tech trouble before losing by 6 points.

In 2021, UCLA won its play-in game as an 11 seed and continued its magical run all the way to the Final Four.

In 2018, Syracuse made the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed after beating Arizona State in the play-in game.

In 2017, 11-seed USC upset (4-loss) SMU in the first round after winning its play-in game.

In 2016, Fred VanVleet and the 11-seed Wichita State Shockers beat Vanderbilt in the playoff game before upsetting 6-seed Arizona.

And so this trend of the 11 seed gaining momentum…is gaining momentum.

Fun fact: In the last 30 years, an 11 seed is much more likely to make a Final Four as compared to a 6 seed. The last 6 seed to make a Final Four was the Fab Five in 1993. Meantime, there have been four 11 seeds to make the Final Four since 2006 (George Mason, VCU, Loyola Chicago, and UCLA).

  1. Sunday’s Made-for-TV Matchup Returns

The potential Baylor vs. Duke matchup on Sunday looms as another prime-time showdown tailor-made for TV drama. CBS and the NCAA continue their tradition of arranging Sunday games that capture maximum attention and create compelling narratives. This is nothing new. Wichita State basketball fans still aren’t over the letdown of losing to 8-seed Kentucky on Sunday, March 23rd, 2014.

Illinois basketball fans can relate, as the committee arranged a Sunday matinee for Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago to renew their Cinderella ways against an in-state foe in 2021. Loyola was arguably a top-10 team nationally, yet they were given a 9 seed, ensuring a high-profile matchup with 1-seed Illinois within the first weekend. It was just too good of a television programming moment for the committee and/or television executives to pass up.

  1. Fear the Nation’s Leading Scorer, Regardless of Seed Line

If CJ McCollum and Harold “The Show” Arceneaux haven’t taught us anything, then Max Abmas and Oral Roberts made it officially official: The scoring abilities of a guard who ranks in the top five (or first overall) nationwide can translate in the tournament.

History tells us to keep an eye on these types of players!

  1. Shaky Teams Get Shocked in the First Showdown

Duke is limping to the finish line and is about to be shocked. The Blue Devils have two superstars nursing injuries (Click here to see the injury tracker), and while their roster is stacked with first-round projected NBA picks, that doesn’t always equate to Final Four finishes. Oftentimes, these players are preoccupied with other priorities.

With two losses in late February and an early exit from the SEC Tournament, perhaps we should have seen the 2021-22 Kentucky Wildcats struggling with 15-seed Saint Peter’s in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is another team that lost to this same Saint Peter’s bunch. The Boilermakers also showed signs of trouble late in the season. They lost three games in the final two weeks of the regular season (at Michigan State, at Wisconsin, and home to Iowa).

Do we expect Purdue to be undefeated the final two weeks in a tough Big Ten gauntlet of a schedule? No. Were the warning signs there for a team stacked with NBA talent? Yes.

  1. Future NBA Greats Don’t Always Dominate

Tre Johnson, the freshman phenom at Texas, is the player to watch in this category. If he’s as dominant as advertised, he has a path to shine. He would have winnable games against Illinois and Kentucky if his bracket broke according to the favorites. However, history tells us that not all elite prospects make deep runs in the tournament.

If you’re a fan of 1990s NBA hoops, think of the best players of the past three decades who actually played some college basketball: Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan. None made a Final Four. In fact, most of these greats struggled to advance beyond the first weekend. Conversely, media darlings like Jimmer Fredette and Luka Garza became National Players of the Year yet never cracked the Sweet 16.

  1. Committee’s Fascination with Reunions and Revenge Games

The orchestration of great storylines goes beyond Sunday matchups. The committee loves arranging revenge games and reuniting old foes. A potential Kansas vs. Missouri game could dictate who makes an Elite Eight from the former Big Eight conference. It’s not the first time the committee has set up a meeting between exes. In case you don’t know the history, the rivalry between Kansas and Missouri goes back to the violent quarrels that led up to the Civil War itself.

The most recent example is how Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer played against his old team in round one. The committee didn’t even wait for the field of 32 to reunite that broken relationship! It happens frequently for coaches, too. One example that comes to mind is when 11-seeded Arizona State got paired with 6-seeded Buffalo in the first round, setting up an awkward meeting between Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley and his former school. Not only did Buffalo face their ex-coach, but they did so in their highest-ever tournament seeding, making for compelling drama. Buffalo beat Arizona State in 2019, proving once again that storylines drive the bracket.

Final Thought: March Madness always delivers its usual dose of insanity, and 2025 is proving to be no different. As you pick your bracket, remember that future NCAA legends should be good, but not too great. The team should be must-see TV, but not have a tragic character whose reputation could never outpace his play. Good luck with that.

Exciting Thursday Games: Betting Insights and Predictions for March Madness 2025

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The madness has arrived, and with it comes the challenge of picking winners against the spread. With upsets brewing and lines set to tempt bettors, I’m locking in my best plays for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The key? Taking value where the market gives it and, in the case of BYU and Michigan, paying a small premium on the money line to avoid sweating the points.

🏆 Final 4 Fan-Favorite Articles:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀

Creighton (+2.5) vs. Louisville

This game should be an old-fashioned pick ‘em. Both teams have the talent to make a run, and I don’t see a clear favorite here. When that’s the case, I’m gladly taking the 2.5 points with Creighton, knowing they have just as much of a chance to win outright as Louisville.

High Point (+8.5) vs. Purdue

Purdue isn’t a No. 1 seed this year, but they still have the size and experience to be dangerous. That said, High Point is built to cover this spread. Their perimeter shooting and ability to speed up the pace make them a sneaky play at +8.5.

Montana (+16.5) vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin plays a slow, grinding style, which makes covering a big number like 16.5 tough. Montana should be able to keep this game within reach simply by limiting possessions and playing solid defense.

McNeese State (+7.5) vs. Clemson

McNeese is one of the strongest mid-majors in this tournament, and they match up well against Clemson. Their defense and ability to control the tempo make them a live dog here. I’ll take the 7.5 points with confidence.

BYU (Money Line, -142) vs. VCU

Rather than sweating BYU covering the spread, I’m backing them on the money line at -142. The Cougars have the edge in talent and efficiency, and I trust them to win outright without worrying about VCU sneaking in a late cover.

Georgia (+6.5) vs. Gonzaga

This isn’t the same dominant Gonzaga team we’ve seen in years past. Georgia has the athleticism to keep this one close, and they’re more than capable of hanging within 6.5 points.

Arkansas (+4.5) vs. Kansas

Kansas has been shaky down the stretch, and Arkansas has the athleticism and defensive intensity to make this a dogfight. With Kansas showing inconsistency, I’ll take the Razorbacks and the 4.5 points.

Yale (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M

The Ivy League has a history of bracket-busting, and Yale fits the mold of a team that can make things uncomfortable for a higher seed. Their methodical offense and tough defense should keep this game close, making 7.5 points an easy take.

What makes Yale one of the best overall underdogs in the tournament is their continuity and discipline. The Bulldogs don’t rely on one or two star players; they execute as a unit, making them less susceptible to off-nights from individual performers. They also control tempo exceptionally well, which forces more athletic teams into uncomfortable half-court battles. That’s a nightmare for an opponent like Texas A&M, which thrives in transition. If you’re looking for an underdog with serious long-term value, Yale deserves your attention.

Click here to check out the full top 5 underdogs worth backing for futures!

Drake (+6.5) vs. Missouri

Drake has already proven they can compete with Power Five schools. Missouri has been inconsistent, and this feels like a classic mid-major value pick. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Drake wins outright.

Beyond this game, Drake is one of the best underdog teams in the entire tournament field. The biggest reason? Bennett Stirtz. He’s the smoothest point guard in the country that no one is talking about. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent from the Kansas City area and transfers from Northwest Missouri State, where new head coach Ben McCollum has built a championship-winning culture.

McCollum’s dominance at the Division II level—where he won four national titles and posted an 81.2% career win rate—is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His system is proven, and now he has the resources and talent to execute it on a larger stage. Expect his winning mentality and attention to detail to make Drake one of the most dangerous low seeds in the entire field.

Click here to see why Drake made my top 5 underdogs for futures!

Michigan (Money Line, -150) vs. UC San Diego

Another spot where I’m avoiding the spread and simply backing Michigan to win outright. UC San Diego is no pushover, but Michigan’s talent gap should be enough to get the job done. I’ll take the money line at -150 rather than sweating a possible tight finish.

UNC Wilmington (+15.5) vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech can score, but they also allow teams to hang around. UNC Wilmington has the offensive tools to keep this from getting out of hand, making 15.5 points too good to pass up.

This game also has a few key injuries to consider. Click here for our injury tracker.

St. John’s (-18.5) vs. Omaha

St. John’s is built to run teams out of the gym, and Omaha doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. When the Red Storm get rolling, they don’t let up, and I expect this one to be over early. Lay the 18.5 and trust the blowout.

Thursday’s Games with Huge Favorites

There are a handful of Thursday games that I’m passing on simply because the spreads are too outrageous to find real value. These include Auburn vs. Alabama State/Saint Francis, Florida vs. Norfolk State, Duke vs. American/Mount St. Mary’s, Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville, and Tennessee vs. Wofford. These matchups feature top-seeded teams against overmatched opponents, where the favorites are more than capable of running away with the game—but covering a massive number in the first round is always a gamble. While a few of these underdogs might hang around early, there’s too much risk in relying on them to keep it close for 40 minutes or expecting the favorites to stay locked in for a full blowout cover. Sometimes, the best play is no play at all.

Final Thoughts

This tournament is full of value plays, and I’m taking a mix of live underdogs and sharp money line bets to maximize profit potential. BYU and Michigan are worth paying a small premium to avoid the spread, while teams like Drake, Yale, and McNeese could all exceed expectations. If you’re looking for underdogs that can make a deep run, check out the full list of the top 5 underdogs for futures bets!

March Madness 2025: First Impressions of Each Region

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Men’s College Basketball Tournament Preview

With the NCAA Tournament bracket officially revealed, the first look at each region reveals key storylines, potential upsets, and teams set up for deep runs. Here’s an initial breakdown from CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com author Matty D.

Click here to find a printable bracket as a PDF.

🏆 Elite 8 Articles 🏆
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
✈️ Fun Destinations for March Madness Travel✈️
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀
⚔️Rivalry Reignited⚔️
📊 Season ATS Standings 📊
😎Coolest Player Names😎

South Region: Tough Roads and Underseeded Teams

Texas A&M and Michigan got no favors in their draw, facing nightmare high seeds with a potential meeting against Auburn looming. Meanwhile, under-seeded teams like Louisville, Marquette, and Creighton could create chaos in this region. The 11-seed looks dangerous and could roll through the bracket. As for upsets, Bryant has a legitimate chance to beat Michigan State outright, but at the very least, they’re a lock to cover the first half spread.

East Region: Duke on Upset Alert

Duke might be one of the biggest names in the East, but they’re far from safe. Baylor, Arizona, BYU, or Alabama all have the firepower to take them down. The SEC’s representation in this region is interesting, with Vanderbilt sneaking in as a 10-seed and Alabama managing to hold onto a 2-seed. While most lower seeds don’t pose a significant Sweet 16 threat, Liberty has the tools to take out Oregon in the first round.

Midwest Region: Houston’s to Lose, But Upsets Lurk

The Midwest Region looks like Houston’s to lose, but there’s plenty of room for chaos. The winner of the Clemson vs. McNeese matchup could make the most noise in this section of the bracket. Purdue sits as a high seed, but High Point has a real shot at taking them down. Meanwhile, Texas is a team to watch—if they build momentum, they could be a dangerous 11-seed no one wants to face.

West Region: Cinderella Runs and a Potential Border War

The West Region might be the most unpredictable of them all. The winner of Missouri vs. Drake is primed for an Elite Eight run, while a potential “Border War” clash between Kansas and Missouri could add a historic rivalry to the mix. In the first round, Maryland vs. Grand Canyon could be the best game to watch. Meanwhile, Walter Clayton Jr. and Florida is built for a deep run and could find themselves in the Elite Eight, no matter if they’re facing a No. 6, 7, or 11 seed along the way.

First Takeaway

The bracket is set, and early impressions reveal a mix of powerhouse teams, potential Cinderella stories, and major upset possibilities. As always, March Madness promises chaos, and this year’s first look suggests we’re in for another wild ride.

The Ultimate College Basketball Hub: Stay Ahead This March Madness

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🏆 Elite 8 Articles 🏆

🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
✈️ 4 Fun Destinations to March Madness Travel✈️
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 7 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀
📊 Season ATS Standings 📊
💰 This Week’s Best Picks 💰
🕵️‍♂️ Fun Matchups the Committee Could Conspire 🕵️‍♂️

March Madness is almost here, and every college basketball fan wants an edge. Whether you’re tracking injuries, scouting underdogs, or looking for fun destinations to experience the madness firsthand, CollegeBasketballeyetest.com has you covered. Our latest Elite 8 Articles connect you with the most important topics leading up to the tournament.

📲 Your One-Stop Shop for College Hoops

We dive deep into the latest trends, hidden betting opportunities, and must-watch storylines. These articles guide you through every aspect of the tournament:

🔥 Top Injuries to Watch – Key players battling injuries could make or break their team’s chances. Stay informed before placing any bets.

🏀 Sons of NBA Stars – Meet the next generation of basketball royalty making waves in college hoops.

🐶 Top 5 Underrated Underdogs – Every year, a few lower-seeded teams make a deep run. These are the squads to keep an eye on.

🎉 6 March Madness Traditions – From historic buzzer-beaters to iconic pep bands, relive the best traditions of the tournament.

📊 Season ATS Standings – Betting against the spread? Check which teams have been the most (and least) profitable all season.

💰 This Week’s Best Picks – Get expert insights on the best value plays leading up to Selection Sunday.

🕵️‍♂️ Fun Matchups the Committee Could Conspire – Which potential tournament matchups could stir up the most drama? We break down the possibilities.

✈️ Four Fun Destinations to Travel for March Madness – Want to experience the madness in person? Here are four great cities to catch the action live.

With these deep dives, our site connects college basketball fans to the info they crave. Click through to any article and stay ahead of the game this March! 🚀

Men’s College Basketball Picks Against the Spread for February 22, 2025

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Rolling Out of Bed with College Basketball Picks

Matty D here from CollegeBasketballItest.com, and I’m back again with another round of early college basketball picks. This approach worked well for me last week, and I’m looking to keep the momentum going. Let’s dive into some suspect spreads and intriguing matchups from today’s slate.

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M is favored by 1.5 points in this matchup against Tennessee. This might come as a surprise considering I’ve been high on Texas A&M as a potential championship contender at 40 or 50 to 1 odds. However, despite my faith in the Aggies, I think Tennessee is the better team. The Vols haven’t played to their full potential over the last month, but I see this as a good spot for them. I’m taking Tennessee and the 1.5 points here.

Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Oregon is an 8.5-point underdog against Wisconsin. The Badgers have been playing strong basketball recently, but Oregon is fighting for a tournament spot, and 8.5 points is a lot to be giving up. I like Oregon to cover in this one.

Florida State vs. Louisville

Louisville is favored by 13.5 points against Florida State. The Seminoles have struggled lately, and with Louisville’s up-tempo style of play under head coach Pat Kelsey, I think they have the potential to cover the spread. They’re a top-25 team, and with their current momentum, they could handle this one convincingly.

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia

West Virginia is laying 11.5 points against Texas Tech. This is a tough game to call, especially with West Virginia missing one of its key players, Tucker DeVries, whose father, Darian DeVries, is the team’s head coach. If I had to pick, I’d lean toward West Virginia, but this might be a game to avoid altogether.

Iowa State vs. Houston

One of the marquee matchups of the day features Iowa State taking on Houston. Both teams are elite defensively and could make deep tournament runs. Surprisingly, Iowa State is getting 11.5 points. In what should be a low-scoring defensive battle, that’s a big number to be receiving. I like Iowa State to cover, especially since they might be looking for a bounce-back performance after a disappointing showing recently.

Georgia vs. Auburn

Auburn is a 16.5-point favorite against Georgia. The Bulldogs have been a tough out for some SEC teams this season, making this a tricky game. I’m staying away from this one because I don’t want to be sweating in the final moments to see if Auburn covers or not.

Clemson vs. SMU

SMU put on an offensive clinic against Notre Dame recently, so I’m surprised to see them as an underdog at home against Clemson. With SMU getting 1.5 points, I’m taking them in this spot.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas

Kansas is giving 14.5 points to Oklahoma State, and I don’t think they should be laying that many points to anyone right now. The Jayhawks have been inconsistent, especially during their trip out west against Utah and BYU. I’ll probably stay away from this game entirely, but if I had to pick, I’d take Oklahoma State with the points.

Florida vs. LSU

Florida is favored by 10.5 points against LSU. The Tigers are one of the few SEC teams unlikely to make the tournament, while Florida is in contention for a No. 1 seed. I believe Florida can cover the spread here, as they have much more at stake.

Kentucky vs. Alabama

This game was an instant classic when these two teams faced off in Lexington on MLK weekend. Now, Kentucky is a 10.5-point underdog as they travel to Alabama. That spread seems a bit high, but I’ll be holding off on making a final call until I see more developments.

St. Mary’s Visits Gonzaga as a 6 Point Favorite

St. Mary’s and Gonzaga battled things out about a month ago with St. Mary’s hosting as a slight underdog. In a bizarre display of many missed free throws, the Gaels survived an ugly contest. I just think Gonzaga is overdue for a good showing here at home and a quality win to solidify a tournament berth as a lower seed than we’re used to seeing the Bulldogs. My guess is that they’ll finish the season as a 9 or 10 seed.

St. Mary’s has a son of a former NBA star on its roster. Can you name him?
👶Click here for the list of sons of NBA players in the 2025 Men’s College Basketball Season👶

College Basketball Against the Spread Picks – Closing Thought

That wraps up my early thoughts as I roll out of bed, checking for suspect spreads. Be sure to check out my website, CollegeBasketballItest.com, as well as my YouTube and Twitter for more picks and insights. Let me know what you’re seeing today, and enjoy the action!

Matty D’s ATS Record this Season for 2025 College Basketball Picks

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This blog started over 10 years ago with the goal of spotting human interest stories, huge underdogs, and sharing opinions across the college basketball ecosystem. Lead blogger Matty D. has delivered a few outstanding longshot picks over the years and on this website. That includes spotting UCONN 50-1 when Kemba Walker graced the Garden as a champion, Wichita State at 100-1 when it made the Final Four as a 9 seed, and also listed FAU as a season-long best underdog the year it made a Final Four as a 9 seed.

If you want to see this year’s top 5 picks for high value future underdogs to win a championship, click here:

To see Matty D’s resume for this season, read on.

Picks are posted before noon every Saturday. Those picks are given the appropriate hashtag “Suspect Spreads Saturday,” as we are looking for games where the sports books have the wrong numbers when it comes to their idea of a fair handicap for that game.

Here’s a running tally of this season’s record: 72-66 ATS Overall:

7-4 ATS on March 20th with this article
3-5 ATS on March 15th with a blog article
10-10 ATS on March 8th with this Tweet
5-10 ATS on March 1st with this Tweet
7-7 ATS on February 22nd with this Tweet
9-3 ATS on February 15th with this Tweet
7-7 ATS on February 8th with this Tweet
7-10 ATS on February 1st with this Article
17-10 to Start the Season with these picks

Bet on Kansas City Championships: Chiefs & Jayhawks Parlay

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Kansas City Championship Dream: Chiefs and Jayhawks Parlay Ticket Auction

Imagine the thrill of Kansas City’s favorite teams delivering back-to-back championship parades! This is your chance to secure a future bet combining the Kansas City Chiefs and Kansas Jayhawks to win it all in their respective leagues.

Picture it: Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid leading the Chiefs to another Super Bowl triumph in February, followed by Bill Self and the Jayhawks cutting down the nets in April. It’s a double-dose of Kansas City glory that fans dream about—and you could hold the ticket that brings it all together.

This parlay ticket is not just a bet; it’s a celebration of excellence and a tribute to the relentless pursuit of greatness by two iconic teams. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just love the excitement of a high-stakes gamble, this is your chance to join the ride.

Don’t miss the opportunity to own a piece of this thrilling Kansas City sports journey. Bid now and envision the joy of two championship runs—and the incredible payout that comes with it! College basketball eye test has a profile on the PropSwap exchange. Click here for this ticket and more!

Midseason Eye Test with Picks for Saturday, January 18th NCAAB Game Picks

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What teams could make a late season surge in college basketball?

The question in college basketball is not who are the top teams, but instead we are keeping an eye on which teams could move from unranked to tournament sleeper. With an active transfer portal in the offseason, it’s hard to keep track of rosters from year to year. Who is on what team? The truth is that many teams in the top 10 have continuity from the past year, but then the next top 50 teams or so are fluid. There’s a lot of team chemistry that is still building, with head coaches like Kentucky’s Mark Pope a mad scientist experimenting with different lineups in an AAU-like scramble to achieve cohesion in one season.

College basketball’s favorites and underdogs for a 2024-2025 NCAA Championship

The top of the list has remained mostly the same. Duke and Auburn are taking turns as the nation’s number 1 overall ranked team, and therefore the lowest odds to win a title. As this article is being published, each team sits around 6-1 to win it all. Duke and Auburn started the season in that same 10-1 vicinity. They were joined then, and continue to be joined now, by Kansas, Gonzaga, Houston, UCONN, and Iowa State in the second tier of teams in the 10-1 to 25-1 range. Once you start reading below the 25-1 line, things get really dicey. There is a lot of volatility within college basketball’s rankings of say the 20th overall teams and the 60th overall teams. In late November, teams like UNC, Arkansas and Indiana were in the conversation as a third teir of title contenders. However, now those teams would be happy to even make the tournament.

A screenshot of DraftKings odds in late November shows how much has changed

What college basketball teams are underrated right now?

The team that probably headlines a list of surprising, surging, underdog teams, is the Louisville Cardinals. Led by longtime Wisconsin Badger point guard Chucky Hepburn and head coach Pat Kelsey, this team is really starting to put it together. In mid-January, the Cardinals raced away with a win against Syracuse at the former Carrier Dome. Coach Pat Kelsey is known for his track meet style, but even that 85-61 should make you pay attention. This team could race its way into a dangerous 5 or 6 seed before we know it.

Another team worth watching is UCF. Lefty Keyshawn Hall just dropped 40 on Arizona State in their building (including 29 in the first half) to bolster their record to 12-4.

Click here to read more about Hall’s 40 point game on The Ledger.com

UCF is not the only surprising team in the newly-mixed Big 12. West Virginia is a bubble team and has notched important resumes wins so far including a New Year’s Eve win at Allen Fieldhouse. Former Drake head coach Darian Devries has taken his talents (and his son Tucker) to Morgantown with a balanced athletic team led by top scorer Javon Small. This team features six players averaging at least 4 1/2 rebounds per game. When you watch, you’ll see they play for each other.

Follow this and other tweets from CBBEyeTest on X.

What NCAAB teams to watch for on Saturday, January 18, 2025

UConn’s quest to 3-peat as champions is a testament to their resilience and their ability to adapt in high-pressure situations. After a turbulent holiday season marred by losses to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton, the Huskies looked far from their championship form. However, with the emergence of their star freshman—Liam McNeeley—and the steady leadership of Coach Dan Hurley, UConn has regained its focus. The freshman phenom has electrified the court, leading the team in scoring and providing the spark they needed during a critical midseason stretch. As the Huskies prepare for March Madness, their ability to rebound from adversity and channel their championship pedigree will be key to securing a historic third consecutive title.

Clemson and Wake Forest find themselves in a prime position to take control of an ACC conference that is facing an identity crisis. After Duke’s dominance at the top of the pack, tournament seeds are up for grabs in the league with traditional powers like Syracuse, UNC, and UVA experiencing user error. Clemson has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a strong defense and an emerging backcourt duo. Meanwhile, Wake Forest’s Steve Forbes is poised to make his mark. After several years of building his program, Forbes has assembled a team capable of making noise in the ACC. His emphasis on tough, physical basketball and disciplined play could give Wake Forest the edge it needs to capitalize on a wide-open conference race. The opportunity is there for the taking, but both teams will need to show consistency and poise as the season heats up.

In the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake is under pressure to prove it is the cream of the crop. Currently boasting a solid record and led by their prolific scorer Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging almost 18 points per game, the Bulldogs have been the team to beat in their league. However, questions remain about their ability to dominate when it matters most. With key matchups against rival programs on the horizon, Drake has the chance to solidify its status as a powerhouse in the conference. To do so, they’ll need to continue their balanced approach—combining high-octane offense with a stingy defense that can shut down opponents in crunch time. The Bulldogs’ performance over the next few weeks will be critical not just for their NCAA tournament aspirations but also for cementing their legacy within the Missouri Valley Conference.

Last but not least: Picks for Saturday, January 18th:

This is a teaser pick on FanDuel that took advantage of a 13-leg promotional105% boost. Louisville -10.5, UK 6.5, Clemoson +9.5, UCONN -1.5, Auburn +2.5, Wake Forest +4.5, Cincy -3.5, Xavier +15.5, Tennessee +2.5, Mizzou +3.5, Drake +1.5, A&M -5.5, BYU +6.5.