Although conference championship crowns are being captured this weekend, these are some pivotal college basketball matchups to watch closely as the non-conference schedule winds down.
Michigan State hosts Duke as Sparty Sees Itself as Surprise +1.5 Underdog
I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. You have a darling blue blood who has all of the nation’s highest rated recruits sprinkled with some long tenured program guards who just know how to play basketball. Duke comes straight out of central casting for that one. Enter Tom Izzo’s bunch. They look more like a defensive line group, with perhaps a few black and blue eyes to match. This Motley Cru normally mucks up the action with physical play.
Michigan State finds itself as a surprising 30-1 underdog to win the National Championship at this point, after its already excelled in the non-conference session throughout November.
Give me the Spartans to win outright, but I’ll take the 1 1/2 points if they’re giving it.
Overlooked Mid-major pick of the college basketball weekend
Not many people nationally are talking about the big upset win that Bowling Green scored at K-State this week. It was an impressive performance from the three point line and specifically for senior Sam Towns who dropped 17 points in the first half.
This, despite K-State having one of the nation’s highest paid players in Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty.
I don’t see a let down from Bowling Green here in this spot as they are spotting Utah Valley a casual 1 1/2 points, according to DraftKings line as of one hour before tip nationwide.
March is finally here, and with it comes the excitement of college basketball’s most crucial stretch. With conference tournaments looming and Selection Sunday approaching, every game carries weight. Let’s break down today’s key matchups and make some predictions.
Clemson has been one of the most impressive underdogs throughout the season, showing strong performances against top-tier teams. Their size and experience give them a major advantage against a Virginia squad that has struggled to find consistency. Look for Clemson to control the game on both ends and cover the 7.5-point spread.
Maryland is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State, but this matchup against an inconsistent Penn State team presents a great opportunity for the Terrapins to bounce back. With a stronger defensive presence and the ability to capitalize on Penn State’s lapses, Maryland should be able to win and cover the spread.
Rivalry games are always tricky to predict. This matchup between Providence and UConn is no exception. UConn has been dominant in stretches but has shown some vulnerability. Providence, on the other hand, always plays tough in these contests. Six and a half points might be too much to lay in a rivalry battle, so this one could go either way.
Prediction: Providence covers (+6.5)
Butler at Villanova (-7.5)
Villanova looked like a tournament team just a few weeks ago, but their recent form has been shaky. The 6.5-point spread is a bit too generous for a Villanova team that hasn’t been at its best lately. Butler is fighting to finish as a .500 team this season, but just showed some feisty play against a top 10 St. John’s team. Give me the Bulldogs!
Prediction: Butler covers (+7.5)
Miami at North Carolina (-17.5)
North Carolina might be making the ultimate correction to their season in a last ditch effort to compete for an ACC (tournament) championship. However, 17.5 points is a massive spread in any conference game. While Miami has been blown out several times this season, they might be able to keep this one within reach. Still, UNC is the better team by far, and Miami’s defensive issues could make this an uphill battle for them. I am honestly staying away from this game altogether. If you need to pick this game, go with Miami!
(Of course, you should never feel like you need to make a sports betting pick. If you are struggling with a gambling addiction, help is available. For support, call 1-800-Gambler or visit this site).
Prediction: North Carolina wins, but Miami covers (+17.5)
Auburn at Kentucky (+5.5)
Auburn has been playing well, but they are due for an outright loss. Kentucky, playing at home, will have the crowd behind them and the talent to pull off the upset. Given Auburn’s recent trends and Kentucky’s potential for a big win, this could be the game where Auburn stumbles.
Prediction: Kentucky wins outright (+5.5)
March basketball is here, and the stakes are only going to get higher. Keep an eye on these games, and check back for more predictions as we get closer to tournament time!
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Coach John Calipari has the experience to guide Arkansas through a tough road test at South Carolina. With a tight spread, this game could come down to the wire, but Arkansas should have just enough to cover.
Prediction: Arkansas covers (+1)
Alabama (+3.5) at Tennessee
Alabama is hitting its stride at the right time, scoring at an elite level. While Tennessee is formidable at home, Alabama has a real shot to not only cover but also win outright.
Prediction: Alabama covers (+3.5) and could win outright
Oregon (-7.5) vs. USC
Oregon is coming off an inspirational comeback win against Wisconsin, and that momentum should carry over into this matchup. USC has been inconsistent, and Oregon’s depth and confidence should be enough to secure a comfortable win.
Prediction: Oregon covers (-7.5)
Houston (-13.5) vs. Cincinnati
Houston has the talent to dominate this matchup, but Cincinnati might keep it closer in the first half before the Cougars pull away late.
Prediction: Houston covers (-13.5), but not on the first-half line
Missouri (-2.5) at Vanderbilt
Missouri should be able to handle Vanderbilt on the road and still cover the 2.5-point spread. Their ability to close out games should help them secure the win.
Prediction: Missouri covers (-2.5)
Arizona State (+7.5) at Utah
Arizona State is getting too many points against a Utah team that just lost its head coach. This is the pick of the day, as Arizona State should keep this game close, if not win outright.
Prediction: Arizona State covers (+7.5) – Pick of the Day
Georgia (+4.5) at Texas
Texas tends to play close games, and Georgia is a live underdog in this spot. Expect Georgia to keep this one tight and potentially steal a win.
Prediction: Georgia covers (+4.5)
March basketball is here, and the stakes are only going to get higher. Keep an eye on these games, and check back for more predictions as we get closer to tournament time!
BYU (-10.5) vs. West Virginia
BYU has the home-court advantage and the firepower to handle West Virginia. The Mountaineers have struggled to find consistency this season, making this a prime spot for BYU to cover the double-digit spread.
Prediction: BYU covers (-10.5)
Texas A&M (+9.5) at Florida
Texas A&M plays its best basketball as an underdog, and after a surprising home loss to Vanderbilt, the Aggies will be looking for a strong response. Florida has been solid but not dominant, making this a great opportunity for Texas A&M to keep the game close and cover the spread.
Prediction: Texas A&M covers (+9.5)
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The Super Bowl is over a new wave of sports fans is turning its attention to the college basketball season. It’s been an above .500 showing for Matty D. and the College Basketball Eye Test picks thus far in 2025. Let’s see if we can continue the momentum!
As we settle into the action, let’s take a look at some of the most compelling matchups of the day and what they mean for the landscape of college hoops.
Clemson vs. Florida State: Two Teams in Opposite Directions
One of the early matchups on the schedule sees Clemson traveling to Florida State, and these programs are heading in very different directions. Florida State is in transition, with Coach Leonard Hamilton announcing that this will be his final season at the helm. The Seminoles have struggled to find consistency, and their season has reflected the uncertainty surrounding the program’s future.
Clemson, on the other hand, is surging and might just be establishing itself as the second-best team in the ACC behind Duke. A key piece of their success has been Victor Lakhin, a transfer from Cincinnati who has bolstered the team’s defense. He currently leads the conference in blocked shots, adding an intimidating presence in the paint. With momentum on their side, I expect Clemson to take care of business on the road in what could be another statement win for the Tigers.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas: Can the Aggies Cover the Spread?
Another game to watch is Texas A&M hosting Arkansas, where the Aggies are favored by eight points. While I’m high on Texas A&M overall, that spread feels too large given their style of play. Coach Buzz Williams likes to go deep into his bench, routinely playing 10 or 11 guys. While that’s a great strategy for building depth, it doesn’t always translate into blowout wins, especially against a team like Arkansas that is still fighting for a tournament berth.
Arkansas has had an up-and-down season, but they are still a dangerous team under Coach John Calipari. While they have struggled to stay consistent, they have enough talent to keep things interesting. I like Texas A&M to win outright, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Arkansas keeps it closer than expected.
Michigan State vs. Illinois: The Best Bet of the Day?
One of the most intriguing matchups of the day is Michigan State traveling to Illinois. Oddsmakers have Illinois as a heavy favorite, but I don’t quite understand that line. This matchup plays right into the strengths of Michigan State, and I think Coach Tom Izzo’s squad has a real shot at pulling off the upset.
Illinois has been plagued by turnovers, sometimes making inexplicable mistakes that could prove costly against a disciplined, well-coached opponent like Michigan State. Meanwhile, one of Illinois’s biggest strengths is their ability to crash the offensive boards, but Michigan State is built to neutralize that advantage. The Spartans are a tough, physical team that won’t allow Illinois many second-chance points, and that could be the deciding factor in this game.
If Michigan State does win, it would be a huge validation of their spot near the top 10 rankings. Keep an eye on this one—it could be the upset of the day.
Final Thoughts
With March Madness fast approaching, every game matters. Clemson looks like a force in the ACC, Texas A&M needs to prove they can cover a big spread, and Michigan State might just be the best underdog bet of the day. Whatever happens, today’s action is sure to have major implications for the tournament picture.
Enjoy the games, and let me know what you think about today’s matchups!
These college basketball teams are all high value picks as longshots to win it all.
BY MATTY D.
This has been a volatile year for college basketball’s top 25. After the long-standing favorite of Houston, numbers 2 through 10 have been a game of musical chairs. The Houston Cougars currently sit at 6-1 odds to win it all.
Best longshot odds to win the 2023 NCAA Basketball Championship
Meanwhile, college basketball fans have been treated to some real surprising performances from mid-major teams this season. This article outlines my favorite value picks for current odds to win it all. Two of those teams have improved from an off-the-radar mid-major to a staple of the AP Top 25. Only one of my 5 value teams from the start of the season have stuck on this top 5 list.
#5 Florida Atlantic 175-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
The Owls have come out of nowhere, so if you’re scratching your head, welcome to my list. The Owls haunted the Florida Gators and their high hopes for a tournament caliber year by dominating them in Gainesville. That was the start. Florida Atlantic continued their momentum into conference play where they’ve beaten tournament-relevant programs like UAB, North Texas and Western Kentucky. They have repeatedly been ranked in weekly polls in the 21-25 territory. Yet, they’re somehow still 175-1 to win it all. That, according to FanDuel Sportsbook app on February 15th.
The Owls can knock down the three. FAU’s bench can score — its two top scorers come off the bench. They rank among the top 10 teams in the nation in scoring and have a perimeter surrounded with combo guards who can create their own shots. Take your shot by considering this heavy underdog for at least a Final Four ticket. The Conference USA teams are always dangerous in March Madness (think Middle Tennessee and North Texas).
#4 Arkansas Razorbacks 50-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
This is the only SEC team to currently make the list, but there could have been many others. Missouri, Auburn, and Texas A&M are also very intriguing. Arkansas makes the list because tits resume is 95% stamped for approval and a tournament team. Those other teams may be in the 65-75% range. At 50-1, Arkansas carries the flag for a conference that is still largely underrated by the futures market. If you are a futures shopper you should consider investing in the conference itself to win it all. You might even find a 4-1 or 5-1 steal and suddenly be invested in all the high level teams — Tennessee, Alabama, the list goes on.
As for Arkansas, the roster has turned over completely for 2022-2023, but the identity remains the same. Late season news for Arkansas has been a mixed bag. They took some questionable losses like losing to Vanderbilt in mid-January and losing to Mississippi State at home mid-February. The good news is that super hyped NBA prospect combo guard Nick Smith Jr. has recently returned from his knee injury. Smith Jr. is slowing gaining more minutes and productivity as March approaches.
Smith Jr. and fellow freshman Anthony Black were especially gelling in an SEC tournament game against Auburn where they scored 14 and 19 respectively with great efficiency. This team is hitting its stride as the tournament nears.
The Hogs defend hard, play fast, and challenge at the rim on both ends. This is a better team on the defensive end, ranking in kenpom’s top 20. The Mitchell brothers offer some size and athleticism down low. Jordan Walsh is really fun to watch with his Dennis Rodman-like tenacity. The team is loaded with McDonald’s All-Americans (three current, one more committed). If you are reading mock NBA draft boards and like this team because of prospect Nick Smith Jr., don’t. Smith has not been a consistent piece of this lineup. That said, if he emerges into the rotation during the start of the tournament itself, it might be time to jump on the bandwagon. That might be a guy, and this might be a team, looking to improve its stock greatly on the national stage.
#3 College of Charleston 400-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
This one honestly made me do a double-take. I can’t believe College of Charleston is being disrespected in this way. If 400-1 is too rich for your blood (or too thrifty in this case), then you should at least consider CoC at 90-1 or 100-1 to make a magical run to a Final Four. This is a tournament team. The Cougars have cracked the AP Top 25 a few weeks ago and have stuck there in the 18-25 range. Even though they play in a mid-major conference, they may not need to win their conference tournament championship. However, they did win their conference tournament and earned a spot as a 3 loss team.
Two losses in conference took this team from 300-1 to 400-1. That includes a four point loss to Hofstra and a one point loss to Drexel. Otherwise, the Cougars only loss was against UNC early in the season. The Cougars struggled with Towson which has a great scorer in Nicholas Timberlake. The way that College of Charleston beat Towson in comeback fashion in early March and again during the Colonial Athletic Tournament shows that the Cougars can take a punch. They were the hunted all season long within their conference.
This team is especially a case where you need to shop around as a futures investor. The odds for this team are all over the place. On March 10th, three major sportsbooks had them listed with large discrepancies. Ceasars had them listed as 500-1 underdogs to win it all, while FanDuel had them at 400-1 and MGM at 250-1 (according to VegasInsider.com).
Anyone who buys this ticket should also be rooting for Florida Atlantic to win its conference tournament. Like the Owls, the Cougars don’t want to put this decision in the tournament committee hands. And if both Florida Atlantic and College of Charleston get upset in their own conference tournament, it’s highly unlikely that both get a tournament bid. Although, it would be really cool if they played each other in a play-in game! I would love that more than seeing some middle-of-the-pack power six teams play each other.
This was the conference standings for CoC in mid-February showing a dominant record.
C of C has been totally running their league opponents out of the gym. They are consistently winning by 15, 20, 25 points or more. The are undefeated in the Colonial Athletic Conference and only have one loss to their name at 21-1. It has wins over Kent State, Virginia Tech, Davidson and Colorado State. Its only loss is to UNC. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has them slotted as a 10 seed. Even if they lose one or two games in their conference, you could easily see this squad as a play-in-game 11 or 12 seed. Head coach Pat Kelsey has come over from Winthrop where he has brought his renowned conditioning and winning ways. The Cougars are deep, tall, can shoot, sprint to the ball, and play a ton of guys. A recent box score showed Kelsey playing 13 people. I didn’t even know that was possible. In that game, 10 players scored and 10 players played 9 minutes or more. Kelsey gives his guys no excuses not to run to a loose ball, hustle to a rebound, and get out in transition. The makeup of this team is perfectly suited for a tournament situation. If a 6 or 7 seed overlooks them, they’ll at least get the attention of the 2 or 3 seed in the next matchup.
#2: San Diego State 75-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
Could this be the year that the Mountain West actually clicks? If it does, this will be the team to do it. However, there is reason for suspicion. The Mountain West went winless in last season’s tournament. This year, there is a lot of noise about the conference being fourth, fifth, or sixth best in the country. They compare favorably to the ACC, which will likely get seven teams in the tournament. With so many teams with a NET ranking in the 30s or 40s, you’d assume that the Mountain West would also get multiple bids. New Mexico is fading down the stretch of the season. Nevada and Boise State are also projected tournament teams at this point. However, it’s the Aztecs that have the experienced nucleus and chronically under-the-radar culture.
Longtime Steve Fisher assistant, and now longtime San Diego State coach, Brian Dutcher has his Aztecs playing great defense as always. The Aztecs actually rank 27th on Kenpom.com in defensive efficiency, which is perhaps lower than you’d expect from the standard set there.
If you watch college basketball, the cast of characters at San Diego State is comically familiar. It seems guys like Matt Bradley and Nathan Mensah have been there for a lifetime. And they’ve achieved so much. The starting lineup features four seniors and one junior. Bradley has reached a new level with his offensive production. He is averaging 17 points in the month of February. I would hate to have a futures ticket on a young team like Arkansas and have to face a veteran bunch like San Diego State in the tournament. ESPN college basketball Seth Greenberg talks about being “invested in winning.” By that standard, it’s time that the Aztecs commitment pays dividends. The team’s Twitter hashtag is even “The Time is Now.” If you have any belief that the Mountain West will rebound and represent itself well in the tournament this season, San Diego State is a no-brainer.
#1 Drake Bulldogs 300-1 to win a College Basketball Championship
#1 Drake Bulldogs 300-1 to win a College Basketball Championship
If it weren’t for the pandemic, this team might be a household name as an underdog similar to how Oral Roberts will be perceived coming into the 2023 March Madness. Drake is big, experienced, and boast the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year. In a conference that recently sent Cinderella Loyola Chicago to the Final 4, no one should be sleeping on the Bulldogs. Point guard Roman Penn is a powerful asset as an ambidextrous and wise veteran player. The Siena transfer had battled injuries throughout his collegiate career but is looking poised to lead a deep run in another tournament. Drake ran Bradley out of the gym in its conference championship game in St. Louis. Bradley was considered to be a good team. You don’t have to worry about this mid-major team not having the size to battle against a power 5 school. Darnell Brodie is built like a right guard but can guard any center nationwide. Brodie also has a sweet stroke from the charity stripe, just saying. Book the Bulldogs, Owls or Cougars in your Sweet 16 if the bracket allows for it and make for an exciting March Madness!
Removed from List: Creighton Bluejays 30-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
***Creighton has been removed from this list, as the cutoff for how to define an “underdog” has been drawn at the 60-1 threshold. Still, if you might like the argument below to buy in at 30-1.
Creighton’s futures tickets have been selling at a discount since a stretch when they lost 5 of 6 to start December. After then going on an 8 game winning streak, they just lost on Valentine’s Day to another ranked team at Providence. But when you look closer at the details, you see that this is still a Final Four caliber team. Creighton started the season ranked in the Top 10 of the AP Top 25. Futures for Creighton to win a NCAA Basketball Championship started around 35-1, dropped as low as 80-1, and have now regained strength around 35-1 again. After the Providence loss, the odds stuck at 25-1. If you are shopping, you could likely still grab this team at 30-1 or even 35-1.
Creighton has regained its footing with a solid performance within the Big East. However, its non-conference wins early in the season might be its saving grace. The Big 12 and SEC get a lot of hype as the best conferences in basketball. Well, Creighton beat Texas Tech (Big 12) and Arkansas (SEC) right before that losing streak started. And, the losing streak could certainly be attributed to losing their starting center, Ryan Kalkbrenner, to injury. Once Kalkbrenner returned, Creighton went 4-2 immediately. The loses they suffered during that rocky stretch included respectable losses to probably tournament teams. They lost to Arizona, BYU, Texas and Marquette in that stretch. This gives you an idea of how aggressively this team was scheduling. They had high hopes since challenging eventual champion Kansas in last year’s NCAA tournament.
Creighton was 65-1 to win it all on the FanDuel Sportsbook app on January 25, 2023.
Creighton’s athletic wings Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander set the tone for a stellar defensive squad. South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman is a strong guard who can score at all three levels. He was arguably the most sought after transfer in America this offseason. And sophomore point guard Ryan Nembhard is a poised point guard who can control and take over games. Despite the turbulence, Creighton is still projected as we publish this as a tournament team. You can buy them at half off their 30-1 starting price when the season started.
When it comes to college basketball futures for March Madness 2023, Creighton lives in the same neighborhood as some blue blood programs. Duke, UNC, Creighton and Indiana all have roughly 50-1 odds to win a championship as February 2023 began. A recent poll by College Basketball Eye Test on Twitter showed that Indiana is the most popular pick among these values.
Which #NCAAB long shot is the best value right now?
Find free picks against the spread every Saturday for college basketball here on collegebasketballeytest.com. The theme of this article is to find incorrect odds, otherwise known as “suspect spreads.” Picks are tweeted before Saturday’s tip.
College basketball eye test’s record against the spread stands at 40-46 heading into the start of March.
Because Saturdays are really the most exciting national showcase of college basketball action, we focus on this day to have some fun.
This website and its author Matty D. took a 56% winning percentage from the 2021-2022 season into the 2022-2023 campaign. Click here to see a breakdown of last year’s picks. An archive of every pick from the 2022-2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Season is recorded below.
College Basketball Odds and Picks Against the Odds for Today
If sports betting isn’t your thing, the odds are still a great measuring tool to debate the best teams. Join the college hoops conversation by following us here on Twitter.
The final picks for February went 8-3 to put an unlucky streak to an end.
NCAAB Record Against the Odds for 2022-2023 by College Basketball Eye Test
Below is a log of some of the tweets from this season with picks, good and bad.
After starting with a poor record of 9-17 to start the season, the record ATS improved to 15-21 and then 18-22 after consecutive winning weeks. That record improved to 23-25 after going 5-3 during the SEC Big 12 Challenge. However, the picks had a difficult February. Picks took a nose-dive during a 1-4 showing on the first Saturday of February. The site then went back-to back losing weeks in mid February (a disgusting 2-7 performance on the heels of a 6-7 showing).
On January 7th, the picks were particularly bad. The one saving grace being that 5 of 6 favorites taken to cover at least hit ML. Kansas State the call of the day yet another +6 dog to win outright. Picking +6 underdogs to win outright has randomly been a strength of this website.
It’s the first #SuspectSpreadSaturday for me and I’m dipping my toe in the water. I’m loving Wake Forest -2 Arizona -2 Auburn -1 Arkansas -4.5. Those are all suspect spreads based on the small samples size I’ve seen so far. You?
College Basketball Eye Test 