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BrackEYEtestology: Ranking the First 11 Teams in the Tourney

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Each March, the NCAA Tournament introduces college basketball fans to a new group of mid-major champions who earned automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments. This blog article will evaluate the visual “eye test” qualities of each mid-major team that secured a place in the 2026 Men’s College Basketball Tournament bracket, focusing on those who punched their ticket prior to Gonzaga.

While Gonzaga appears on this conference outline, the program is widely regarded as a national power despite competing in a traditionally weaker conference structure. The goal of this article is to provide quick-hit visual scouting impressions of these mid-major qualifiers.

BY MATTY D.

Tennessee State Jumps Off the Page when Comparing Hype to the Eye Test

One of the first teams to punch their tickets to the 2026 Men’s College Basketball Tournament could be one of the most dangerous and dramatic upset candidates in the entire tourney. If you like riding underdogs on your bracket, you may enjoy how this team’s entry will be old news by the time Selection Sunday gets sorted out.

Guard Aaron Nkrumah absolutely jumps off the page. Or, should I say, he jumps off the TV screen with athleticism. The bouncy 6-6 senior scored 14 points in the championship win against Morehead State, but it was actually noteworthy that the Tigers enjoyed five players scoring in the teens during that game. This is on par with how Tennessee State has been finishing up its regular season. Since losing its last time this season to Morehead State, the Tigers have been beating teams by an average of 18 points, including two lopsided wins of 27 and 26 points against SIUE and Morehead State, respectively.

If you needed any more reasons to like Tennessee State as a sleeper team, consider its head coach. This past summer, former 4-year starting Duke point guard Nolan Smith was announced at the Tigers head coach. This, after serving as an assistant with Memphis and Louisville.

Rookie head coach Nolan Smith was nominated as a finalist for one of the best mid-major coaches in America.

Tennessee State’s announcement of the Nolan news put it in context the best:

“Smith spent his entire playing career at Duke under Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski, widely regarded as one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history. That experience helped shape Smith’s foundation as a tactician, motivator, and leader.”

Seniority “On Brand” as UNI Finds the Field Once Again

In this age of NIL, it’s hard to find examples of seniority thriving in college basketball.

Yet, there’s a perfect example of hard work paying off in the Missouri Valley Conference. The University of Northern Iowa is led by 4-year senior guard Trey Campbell, who also led an Iowa high school team to a state championship.

Of course, it wouldn’t be “on brand” to say that UNI is a one man show. Campbell leads the team with 13 points per game, but has four other teammates averaging around double digits.

Northern Iowa also has seniority when it comes to its long tenured head coach. Ben Jacobson has been at the helm for the Panthers since 2006.

Furman Finds Itself As Another Fiesty 6 Seed to Fight Its Way Into the Tournament

Ironically, both the Furman Paladins and that Northern Iowa Panthers teams are making it into the tournament as former 6 seeds in their own conferences.

Furman is a well-put-together roster with capable athletes everywhere. Led by a true freshman in Alex Wilkins, he has brothers Cooper and Cole Bowser attacking the rim at his side.

Not only do UNI and Furman share similarities as 6 seeds to win their conference championship, but they also squared off earlier this season in non-conference play.

Former Syracuse Fan Favorite Fanning the Flames of Upstate New York Revival

If you live in New York, you might be happy to hear that three of the first 11 teams to make the NCAA Tournament are from the Empire State. Upstate New York may have been hopeful of a rejuvenation of Syracuse basketball with Carmelo Anthony’s son playing for the orange and blue.

However, it’s another former Syracuse Orange player who is making a splash.

Syracuse cult hero Gerry McNamara, aka “G-Mac” has led another Upstate New York program to prominence. You’ll remember Gerry McNamara as the starting point guard on the 2001 Syracuse Orange championship team. Now, the Siena Saints of the capital region will return to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament with McNamara as their head coach.

Siena Saints head coach Gerry McNamara courtesy SienaSaints.com Potographer Josh Miller

True to the script of how the universe is unfolding as it should, McNamara’s Saints are led by another gritty undersized under-recruited combo guard from Upstate New York. Gavin Doty of Fulton, NY is averaging 18 points for the Saints in his sophomore season. Siena was dominating Merrimack in the MAC Championship game in the first half before they had to fend off a more serious run.

What Else You Should Know about the First 10 Teams to Make March Madness 2026

As the bracket continues to take shape, six additional mid-major champions who punched their tickets before Gonzaga deserve at least a quick closing nod. Queens (N.C.) arrives from the ASUN with one of the nation’s most aggressive transition attacks, routinely pushing tempo behind dynamic guard play. High Point leaned on a prolific perimeter scoring profile during its Big South title run, spacing the floor with multiple double-figure shooters. Wright State brings a physically imposing interior presence that has powered one of the Horizon League’s most efficient paint-scoring units. Long Island surged late with disruptive on-ball pressure that fueled a top-tier steal rate in Northeast Conference play. And North Dakota State, long respected for disciplined execution, once again showcased a methodical half-court offense that finished near the top of the Summit League in shooting efficiency — a reminder that even in a tournament defined by chaos, structure and shot-making still travel well when the lights get brightest. Hofstra returns to March Madness with a reputation for elite ball security, consistently ranking among conference leaders in assist-to-turnover efficiency.

Suspect Spreads Saturday Spots Two Major Snubs

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Two of America’s most overlooked teams within the AP Top 25 are totally being disrespected by this weekend’s odds for NCAA Men’s College Basketball games. That’s where we begin this Saturday’s rundown of suspect spreads.

BY MATTY D.

UVA “Flat Better than” other NCAA Tournament Teams

Will Wade understands it. The rest of us college basketball fans better get with the picture, too.

Virginia is steamrolling teams.

The Cavaliers’ dominant win against a bubble NC State team last weekend was noteworthy. It wasn’t much of a game. Virginia put on an offensive clinic with everyone getting a turn. The 23-year-old “freshman” from Belgium, Thijs De Ridder got to the rim with ease. De Ridder is averaging 16 points and 7 rebounds this season.

He and his Cav teammates blocked 11 shots in the game, many in the opening moments.

Head Coach Ryan Odom already had his “one shining moment” when his UMBC Retrievers became the first-ever team to beat a 1 seed as a 16 seed (in 2021). Despite breaking their hearts in that fashion, UVA actually decided to hire Odom as their next head coach after the long tenure of Tony Bennett had come to a conclusion. In a coincidental turn of events, no one is really giving UVA a shot right now, either. On the heels of their dominant performance against the Wolfpack, the Cavaliers will face Duke as a 10.5 point underdog (according to DraftKings).

Darius Acuff and Arkansas Overlooked

The Florida Gators have been playing good basketball of late, but they have zero business being a 10 point favorite against Arkansas on Saturday. Arkansas carries a 20th overall ranking.

The Razorbacks look at times like a Final Four contender. Point guard Darius Acuff Jr. is among the tier of freshman following the top 5 NBA lottery pick freshmen who you hear all about. However, this kid has as high of a ceiling as the others. Texas A&M was challenging Arkansas this past week, before Acuff put on a street-ball styled flurry of plays that just reminded the Aggies who they’re dealing with.

This matchup against the Gators on Saturday might be a classic example of strengths against weaknesses, and vice versa. Florida guards have seemed to settle in after transferring into those positions this year, but it will be Florida’s front court that will have the advantage in this game.

Conversely, the Arkansas guards including Acuff Jr., Dejuan Wagner Jr., and Billy Richomond III will be a lot of athleticism for the Gator guards to have to handle.

USC Nebraska a Litmus Test Game for Both Basketball Teams

We don’t really know if USC is a tournament team and we don’t really know if Nebraska really deserves to be in this 2 or 3 seed discussion. Sure, they went undefeated for the better portion of 3 months. Still, it seems like we’re left waiting for the other shoe to drop with Nebraska.

Nebraska went undefeated until getting beat by Michigan for the first time on January 27th. In the month that followed, Nebraska hasn’t been terribly impressive. They won 3 or their last 4 games, but none of them against ranked teams. They lost their last game against a ranked opponent when they played Purdue, although they came storming back from a huge deficit in that game. It just looks like teams have figured Nebraska. Nebraska and Vanderbilt both look similar at this juncture. Their stocks were skyrocketing in December or January, but are now plateauing if not coming back down to earth.

As for USC, Chad Baker-Mazara returned from the injury report two games ago, but the Trojans have struggled in that pair. They just got routed by UCLA, which has not exactly been firing on all cylinders this season.

Suspect Spreads Saturday for a weekend featuring Duke Michigan rivalry renewed

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College basketball delivers one of those Saturdays where what could have been a slow morning suddenly turns into a loaded slate with seeding implications, rivalry flashbacks, and potential market overreactions. As we inch closer to March Madness, these are the matchups that matter — not just for rankings, but for understanding which teams are peaking at the right time and which lines might be mispriced.

Kansas Homecoming Could Be Comfortable Matchup Hosting Cincy

Kansas is finally coming home after playing five of its last eight games on the road, including tough trips to BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona, and Iowa State. That kind of travel stretch can harden a team, and KU has handled it well. Even without full availability from their projected lottery pick, the Jayhawks have been playing strong basketball and positioning themselves solidly in the national conversation. Flory Badunga has been playing out of his mind, giving Kansas a physical interior presence and consistent production. The guards have stepped up, and there’s real depth at that position. Allen Fieldhouse has a way of turning momentum into a celebration, and this feels like one of those games. Cincinnati has had a tough year, and this sets up as a comfortable homecoming spot for KU.

Tennessee Getting Points at Shaky Vanderbilt Is the Most Suspect Line of the Day

Vanderbilt started the year looking like a national title sleeper, but things have cooled off. The Commodores have dropped a couple of games and are managing injury concerns that I’ve outlined previously in my injury tracker heading toward March Madness. Instead of climbing, they now project closer to the middle of the national seeding picture. That’s why seeing Vanderbilt laying three and a half points to Tennessee raises eyebrows. Tennessee grades out better on paper and passes the eye test. They are more consistent defensively and more reliable possession to possession. This spread feels off, and it’s the most questionable line on the board for me.

Houston’s Star Power Is Real, But Arizona Has the Depth to Compete

This is the game of the day. Houston hosting Arizona brings Final Four energy. Watching Houston at Iowa State only strengthened my belief in this group. Kingston Flemings plays with the explosiveness and body control of a young Derrick Rose — the burst, the pace, the ability to stop and rise into a mid-range jumper. In a modern analytics era dominated by dunks and threes, Flemings’ mid-range efficiency keeps defenders off balance. Houston is elite. However, laying five and a half points feels heavy given that Arizona, even with Coa Pete sidelined, remains deep and physical. The Wildcats are seven or eight players strong and can match size and athleticism. Houston is the better team, but Arizona absolutely has the profile to compete.

Freshman phenom Koa Peat is reportedly still out with a lower leg strain.

Duke as an Underdog Against Michigan Is Too Good to Pass Up

Michigan and Duke renew a rivalry that brings back memories of Chris Webber, Christian Laettner, the Fab Five, and Duke’s early-90s dominance. It’s rare to see this kind of late-February non-conference matchup, and it’s great for the sport. From a betting perspective, getting Duke at plus two and a half is hard to ignore. Duke is clearly the class of the ACC and a legitimate national title contender. Michigan has been battle-tested in the Big Ten, but that league beats up on itself. This is a different environment, and I don’t love Michigan in the favorite role here. Duke is the side.

Final Thoughts

These are the matchups I’ll be watching closely as March Madness inches closer. The stakes are rising, the seeding implications are tightening, and the margins are shrinking. Follow along at CollegeBasketballItest.com and on social platforms for continued analysis as we move deeper into tournament season. Enjoy the action.

Kingston Flemings celebrates a shot made before the home crowd.
Photo taken by Stephen Pinchback Kingston Flemings, courtesy UHcougars.com

Injury Report: Injuries to Monitor before Filling Out Your March Madness 2026 Bracket

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Here are some injuries for you to monitor before filling out your bracket for March Madness 2026.

The end of the regular season is seeing its share of season ending injuries to stars, but there are plenty more injury statuses to keep an eye on. Even if these players have returned, its worth noting how they and their team have performed in the closing month of the season before the Madness begins.

UNC’s Caleb Wilson Out With Broken Hand

The headline of the college basketball injury landscape is Caleb Wilson’s broken hand. UNC star Caleb Wilson suffered a broken in late January, but has shared on social media how he looks forward to playing again at Chapel Hill. Because Wilson is a no-doubt NBA lottery pick, many people were speculating that he’ll never return to a UNC powder blue uniform again.

Wilson never made it back to the court to finish his freshman season, despite trying. He broke his hand again during practice while building up to game shape in early March.

Darius Acuff Ankle Acting Out to Start March

The Arkansas point guard was starting to get national player of the year consideration, led by some in the coaching community. ESPN reporter Pete Thamel reported that the star freshman’s ankle injury would keep him out for the season finale against the Missouri Tigers.

Losing to the 20th ranked Razorbacks certainly got Texas Head Coach Sean Miller’s attention. He called Acuff Jr. the best point guard he’d seen in 40 years.

BYU’s Richie Saunders Ruled Out for Season with ACL Tear

The headline of an injury-plagued second half of the college basketball season was this sad news. BYU sharpshooter Richie Saunders suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Saunders was a veteran leader for the Cougars, averaging around 18.8 points per game while shooting nearly 49% from the field and about 37.6% from three this season.

His absence was felt both on the scoreboard. The guard tore his ACL on Feb. 14. The Cougars were 19–6 at the time, but have gone just 2–4 in the games since the injury, dropping five of their last seven overall and sliding out of the AP Top 25. A key moment was when BYU visited Cincinnati to begin March and lose what could be a defacto playoff game if The Big 12 gets only one bubble team into the tournament.

Since Saunders went down, AJ Dybantsa has taken on an even larger scoring burden. His production has climbed from 24.4 points per game before the injury to 27.2 afterward, but the added volume has come with lower efficiency, as his field-goal percentage has dropped from 53.6% to 46.6% over the last five games.

Illinois Injury Shuffle: Boswell Returns, Stojakovic Now Sidelined

It was guard off the IL, one guard remaining on the IL for Illinois. After an extended absence from the lineup, Kylan Boswell returned to the lineup for a convincing win at home against Indiana, giving the Illini a much-needed jolt of experience and steadiness. However, Andrej Stojakovic has been now nursing an ankle injury of his own, and Illinois suddenly finds itself toggling between getting healthier and losing another key contributor.

For readers tracking bloodlines across the sport, check out our companion link following the growing list of sons of NBA players now in college hoops.

Gonzaga’s Braden Huff Injury Could Loom Larger Than Expected

Braden Huff was emerging as one of those classic Gonzaga program players who evolves from a skinny modest contributor to a major force down low. His verstality as a stretch 4 has been noticeably missing since his 4–8 week absence began a few weeks ago with a knee injury. However, as his timetable stalls and the postseason competition intensifies, this injury could become more consequential as the weeks go by.

Arizona’s Koa Peat Avoids Reported Injury List But Still Worth Monitoring

Koa Peat missed a few games in February, but Arizona did just fine without him. I’m not saying that Arizona doesn’t need him. I’m saying that Arizona is a national championship contender, even if a star goes down. They are 8 players deep, easily.

Fun Fact: One of Lebron James’ sons are on the team, but he can’t even get playing time with how talented the Wildcats are.

Click here to see a full roster of sons of NBA players in college hoops.

Kansas Star Darren Paterson: Injury Mystery or Draft Countdown?

There’s been some confusion surrounding KU basketball star Darren Paterson’s status this season. Right now, it remains unclear whether he is doing college basketball part time before cashing in his NBA Lottery ticket, or whether he has a tangible injury that we should be monitoring. Kansas has not provided a fully transparent update, and that ambiguity has fueled speculation at the worst possible time of year. A Kansas Jayhawks loss at Arizona State has the questions more about team chemistry than it does Paterson’s health status. The Jayhawks also lost at home to Cincinnati when Paterson played his most minutes of the season.

Kentucky’s Jayden Quaintance Remains Sidelined With Knee Injury

Jayden Quaintance has missed an extended stretch of games for Kentucky while dealing with a knee injury, and his status remains one of the most important health questions for the Wildcats entering the heart of the postseason. The former Arizona State transfer brings rare athleticism and size to Kentucky’s frontcourt, making his absence especially noticeable in matchups against bigger opponents. Reports in mid-February indicated that the length of the injury has also begun to impact outside perceptions of his season and availability. Until Quaintance is cleared to return, Kentucky’s rotation continues to operate without one of its most physically dynamic interior pieces.

Vanderbilt’s Depth Tested as February Wears On

Vanderbilt’s backcourt and frontcourt have been thin in February and the Commodores record has suffered as a result. Duke Miles and Frankie Collins health statuses are worth monitoring, because Vanderbilt simply doesn’t have the margin for error that deeper SEC contenders enjoy down the stretch. Vanderbilt lost three straight games (Texas, Florida, Arkansas) in February while Frankie Collins was out of the lineup. Despite gaining their starting guards back, Vanderbilt suffered enough losses in 2026 to where they found themselves on the tournament bubble.

USC’s Engine: Chad Baker-Mazara Shut Down

We don’t know if feelings got injured or if a body part got injured, but USC shut down Chad Baker-Mazara to start March. The program announced that he is no longer on the team. He was tthe engine that made the Trojans go. After transferring from Auburn, Baker-Mazara has emerged as USC’s most consistent offensive force, providing scoring, shot creation, and leadership in late-game moments.

Nebraska Monitoring Multiple Questionable Rotation Pieces

Nebraska has several rotation players currently appearing on the injury board, including forward Lawrence Curtis, forward Uros Jarusevicius, and forward Harv Burt, all listed as questionable with undisclosed issues. The most statistically meaningful absence, however, is guard CJ Essegian, who remains out with an ankle injury after providing one of Nebraska’s better perimeter scoring options earlier in the year. Essegian averaged roughly 10 points per game last season and has been a career 40 percent three-point shooter at the college level, making him the most proven offensive contributor among this group as Nebraska pushes toward March.

Teams Currently Carrying Completely Clean Injury Reports

Some of America’s top programs currently show completely free injury reports, giving them a major advantage as the season tightens:

  • UCONN
  • Florida
  • Arkansas
  • Wisconsin
  • Virginia
  • Louisville

Multiple mid-major teams pass the college basketball eye test in February

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It’s the penultimate month before March and the college basketball picture looks a lot different from what was expected at the start of the 2025-2026 season. Nebraska went from being unranked in the preseason, to currently projected as a potential 1 seed in the tournament. It took until late January for the Cornhuskers to harvest their first loss of the season. Their Big 10 counterpart and victor in that game, Michigan, went from being a preseason 12th ranked program to looking unbeatable. The Wolverines have been absolutely crushing teams.

Dangerous mid-major underdogs roam wild across college basketball

As the major programs (and their coaches) whine about the lack of loyalty that happens in the new NIL portal-crazed climate (boo-whoo), the smaller mid-major programs are quietly putting together impressive resumes.

St. Louis Billikens basketball is currently the 21st ranked team in the nation. However, it’s not only the major power teams that are leveraging the transfer portal. The Billikens sport 10 newcomers on this roster. You may remember one of their transfers in the popular “Cream Adbul Jabbar” Robbie Avila, a transfer from Indiana State. Avila’s Sycamores got totally snubbed from the NCAA Tournament last season. They enter February with only 1 loss and are competing in an Atlantic 10 division that has a favorable argument to make for two teams getting invited to the tournament. George Mason and VCU have also been putting together tourney-contention-worthy resumes.

UNCW made its loudest statement of the season by walking into Baltimore and dominating Towson in a nationally televised game between two legitimate CAA contenders. That wasn’t a hot shooting night or a matchup fluke—it was a physical, controlled performance that showed roster maturity and a clear identity. The Seahawks’ rotation leans heavily on experienced guards and upper-class forwards who understand spacing, shot selection, and how to defend without gambling. UNCW dictated tempo, owned the glass, and took Towson out of its comfort zone early, turning a big conference game into a showcase. When a mid-major can impose itself on the road, on TV, against a peer, that’s the kind of résumé line that carries weight in February and credibility in March.

Liberty Flames continue to look like one of the most structurally sound teams in the country, regardless of conference label. Their depth is real, not theoretical, with a steady rotation of players who accept roles and execute them cleanly. Liberty’s offense doesn’t rely on one scorer or one action; it wears teams down with spacing, shot discipline, and relentless rebounding, especially on second chances. The experience across the roster shows up late in halves, when possessions matter and Liberty almost always gets a good look. This is the type of team metrics love and opponents hate, because nothing feels easy and mistakes are punished immediately.

South Florida deserves more attention than it’s getting nationally, because the Bulls consistently pass the eye test in ways that translate to tournament play. Their physicality stands out, particularly on the offensive glass, where they generate extra possessions at an elite rate and grind opponents into foul trouble. The Bulls lead the country in second chance points. It’s a big reason why they easily hit triple digits in games. USF doesn’t need to shoot lights-out to win games—they overwhelm teams with effort, depth, and pressure that accumulates over forty minutes. When you watch them against quality competition, the takeaway isn’t just that they’re winning, but how they’re winning. That profile—tough, rebounding-heavy, and comfortable playing ugly—is exactly what creates first-round upsets in March.

Who is good in college basketball this year? The Answer is still TBD January of 2026

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The college basketball landscape is wide open as the calendar turns to 2026 and these teams outside of the top 5 have built a compelling tournament resume.

BY MATTY D.

Utah State Looking Like the Aztecs in Terms of Mountain West Dominance

College basketball fans like myself, who have been watching for the past 20-30 years, just assume that the San Diego State Aztecs are going to dominate the Mountain West and then represent the conference honorably in March. This year, there’s a different wrinkle to that picture. Utah State is not only winning, but they are dominating. This weekend they went into Boise State and beat the shit out of a Broncos team that actually just took those same Aztecs into triple overtime. And so they’re good. However, it wasn’t a contest when Utah State visited Boise a few days later.

Watch the first half highlights from this game. The Aggies came out angry and athletic, a deadly.combo.

AJ Storr and a talented Ole Miss orchestra of guards playing in harmony after discord

AJ Storr and his coach Chris Beard went viral to start the season because of their uncomfortable moment at the postgame podium. When you’re a player like Storr who has literally played for four college programs, it’s easy for basketball fans to critque you for your lack of coommitment to basketball’s fundamentals. But Storr’s play at times this season, justified that jeering.

This weekend, Storr had his best game in store.

He scored 26 on a highly efficient night. He shot 50% from the field, 4-6 from 3PT, and a perfect 6-6 from the free throw line.

This could be a turning point to the season to where Ole Miss starts cooking.

Iowa exposed inside on big win by the Baltic built Illinois basketball team

Illinois didn’t just beat Iowa. They physically exposed them.

This was not a game decided by hot shooting or clever sets. This was decided by mass, leverage, and a level of interior strength that Iowa simply did not have answers for. From the opening possessions, Illinois lived in the paint, and Iowa absorbed it. By halftime, Illinois had already dropped 24 points in the paint.

That production came straight from the Balkan Five. Tomislav Ivišić, Zvonimir Ivišić, Andrej Stojaković, Mihailo Petrović, and David Mirković brought a level of size and physical comfort that Iowa could not match. These are adult frames. These are players who are used to contact. And they played like it.

When Illinois rolls that group out, it doesn’t look like a college lineup. It looks like a EuroLeague frontcourt wandered into the Big Ten.

Kylan Boswell was the steady hand that made all of it work. He played 38 minutes, scored 17 points, hit timely shots, and more importantly, kept the offense organized. He didn’t over-dribble. He didn’t force. He consistently got Illinois into their actions and delivered the ball where it needed to go. In a game built on physical advantage, that kind of point guard control is everything. Iowa never disrupted him, and Illinois never lost rhythm.

Stojaković is especially interesting in this group, not just because of his strength, but because of his bloodlines. As Peja Stojaković’s son, he connects Illinois to this growing wave of sons of NBA players currently impacting college basketball (click here for the full article).

Illinois is not just international. They are grown.

Best Underdog Future Values to Find Under the Christmas Tree

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College basketball future tickets for an underdog team to win the national championship in 2026 could make for a perfect stocking stuffer for 2025. Here are a few tickets I’d love to see under my Christmas tree.

BY MATTY D.

Big 10 offers ample opportunities for high value underdogs in NCAAB Futures market

Let’s start our search for future values in the Big 10 Conference, where the league is making a sound argument as being the nation’s best league, with multiple different suitors for a Final Four bid. Nebraska is the poster child for the high ceiling teams within this group. In mid-November, you could find the Cornhuskers around 250-1 to win it all. Now, after winning its first 12 games and scoring key resume win against Illinois, K-State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Creighton, this team is still a bargain at 60-1.

Here are some more Big 10 teams to consider for your portfolio. Michigan State stands at 20-1, Illinois 22-1, Iowa at 100-1, and Indiana at 120-1. Those odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and posted on Christmas Eve.

Of course, Michigan stands alone at the top with the biggest amount of respect given in the futures market currently. They are +450 to win it all. That’s at least twice as expensive as any other team in the nation.

Which favorite is the best future value to win the 2026 college basketball championship?

With the Wolverines sitting at +450, that leaves a fleet of still great value picks around that 10-1 neighborhood. Arizona is +850, UCONN 10-1, and Duke 11-1. That group is followed by Iowa State, Purdue, and Houston at 12-1 or 13-1.

From that group, I would choose Arizona and Duke. In fact, I could easily see these teams steamrolling the competition to represent the West and East regions respectively in the national championship game itself. Having two tickets at +850 and 11-1 with that championship matchup together would be a good problem to have.

If those odds aren’t cheap enough for your liking, consider this. This is also the time of the sports calendar year where NFL teams are starting to separate themselves and either pass the eye test, or not. While teams like the Buccaneers, Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs are all suffering some unlikely knockout punches, teams like the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers are showing some incredible value.

For example, a $5 bet on the 49ers to win the NFC combined with Arizona to win the championship would net $332.

Super sleeper underdogs who could compete in the 2026 March Madness tournament

As they say, “get in the dance and anything can happen.”

Here are some crazy underdogs that I am keeping an eye on at the 100-1 and lower vicinity.

Please note that most of these teams would have to win their own conference tournament championship to enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

St. Mary’s is 250-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

The Gaels actually have a recent history of making the tournament as an at large team, thanks in part to its conference mate Gonzaga’s gravitational pull as a national power plus its holding its own against those Bulldogs. This year, St. Mary’s returns an impressive veteran core that includes Harry Wessels and Paulius Murauskas, plus super sophomores Mikey Lewis and Andrew McKeever. McKeever, a 7 foot 2 center from California is averaging nearly a double double after 13 games (11-2 in that stretch).

Utah State 200-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

Someone is coming out of the Mountain West grandfathered in as the annual 7 through 11 seed, and this veteran laden bunch is as good a bet as any to win a few games.

Before conference play, Utah State Aggies quietly built a strong résumé for bettors seeking high-quality future value picks. The Aggies paired legitimate wins over programs like VCU and Tulane with dominant blowouts of Davidson, Charlotte, and Colorado State, showing both floor and ceiling. That blend of NET-relevant victories and decisive margins signaled a team undervalued nationally entering league play.

South Florida Bulls at +280 to win the American Conference

Before conference play fully shapes the market, the South Florida Bulls profile as an appealing future value bet under head coach Bryan Hodgson. Coming from the Nate Oats coaching tree, Hodgson emphasizes pace, spacing, and high-volume three-point shooting. His track record of rapid turnarounds and top-50 offenses suggests South Florida’s relentless attack could outperform preseason expectations. You cannot find South Florida on futures markets just yet, so we will leave the article here with a nasty haymaker pick. If you want to play this team, you can grab them at +280 to win their conference and add to that position if/when they make the tournament that way.

Close-up on College Basketball as Conference Schedules Get Rolling

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After an eventful month plus of non-conference games with important outcomes, the college basketball season is transitioning into conference play where we are looking for the best leagues. As for the nation’s best teams, it feels like a band of heavyweights including Michigan, Arizona, and Duke remain squarely at the top. While Purdue was voted just barely outside of the top 5 in this week’s AP voting, they still remain one of the favorites to win a championship.

BY MATTY D.

There is a cluster of teams just below the top 5 that is intriguing to watch. In this week’s AP Top 25 Poll, Iowa State popped into the top 5, ranking as the 4th best team in the nation. This group also includes potential championship pedigree teams such as UCONN, Houston, and Gonzaga. This weekend I wanted to see another potential title contender from this class. I watched Michigan State struggle to separate itself from Penn State in a sleepy Saturday matinee in Happy Valley.

Sparty struggles with PSU signals what’s to come in conference play nationwide

This is a college basketball season where the cream has risen to the top like none other. The best freshman class of players in a generation were the subject of an arms race where major programs have never had more latitude to spend on their stars because of the NIL. However, despite all of this, the underdog still has a shot between the lines and within the 40 minute game clock.

The Michigan State Spartans took their top 10 national ranking into Penn State to play the first of 20 conference games as a heavy favorite, but the pesky Lions were neck-and-neck. This fight reminded me how the top seeded teams need to be on defense this winter against the rogue underdog. Regardless of how many 5-star athletes you have on your roster, a sleepy matinee can always rock a group of college kids who likely would rather sleep-in, anyway.

Arizona Separates Itself in Superior Stretch Against Offensive Juggernaut Alabama

This was the exact stretch where Arizona showed it isn’t just capable of trading blows with an offensive juggernaut — it knows how to end the fight. In a span of barely two minutes, the Wildcats ripped control away through depth, pressure, and poise. Ivan Kharchenkov set the tone with a steal and layup, Brayden Burries followed with another swipe, and suddenly Arizona was running downhill. Tobe Awaka hammered home a dunk off a Burries assist, and when Alabama tried to breathe, Burries calmly buried a three and then leaked out for a layup on the next possession. That sequence wasn’t about one star going nuclear — it was Arizona flaunting waves of contributors, each doing their job at full speed. Burries, though, was the engine. The #12 recruit in the nation looked every bit the part as a freshman, impacting the game as a scorer, facilitator, and disruptor. This is what separates contenders from pretenders: Arizona didn’t just survive the storm — it overwhelmed Alabama with depth, execution, and the kind of finishing instinct that championship teams develop early.

Other Observations from Outside the Top 10 in the AP Top 25

Nebraska is finally getting its due. The Cornhuskers had already proven their worth with a Feast Week tournament championship, but their undefeated record got another notch on the belt this week with an impressive win at Illinois. Nebraska is now finally in the 15th slot in the national rankings.

Kansas freshman superstar Darryn Peterson returned from injury after missing a few games and the Jayhawks responded. KU defeated NC State as a slight underdog and now maintain their ranking at 17th overall.

Florida already has four losses but somehow survived living in the AP Top 25 at 23rd overall.

Georgia and Virginia debut on the Top 25 for the first time this season, with programs like Kentucky, Clemson, and UCLA finding themselves on the outside looking in.

College Basketball Games to Watch for 2025 College Football Conference Championship Weekend

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Although conference championship crowns are being captured this weekend, these are some pivotal college basketball matchups to watch closely as the non-conference schedule winds down.

PICKS BY MATTY D.

Michigan State hosts Duke as Sparty Sees Itself as Surprise +1.5 Underdog

I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. You have a darling blue blood who has all of the nation’s highest rated recruits sprinkled with some long tenured program guards who just know how to play basketball. Duke comes straight out of central casting for that one. Enter Tom Izzo’s bunch. They look more like a defensive line group, with perhaps a few black and blue eyes to match. This Motley Cru normally mucks up the action with physical play.

Michigan State finds itself as a surprising 30-1 underdog to win the National Championship at this point, after its already excelled in the non-conference session throughout November.

Give me the Spartans to win outright, but I’ll take the 1 1/2 points if they’re giving it.

Either way, this will be a very interesting test for Duke super freshman Cameron Boozer (among this incredible list of sons of NBA stars currently playing collect basketball) as he has so far cruised to 30 plus point games against major programs. He has made it look easy doing it.

Overlooked Mid-major pick of the college basketball weekend

Not many people nationally are talking about the big upset win that Bowling Green scored at K-State this week. It was an impressive performance from the three point line and specifically for senior Sam Towns who dropped 17 points in the first half.

This, despite K-State having one of the nation’s highest paid players in Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty.

I don’t see a let down from Bowling Green here in this spot as they are spotting Utah Valley a casual 1 1/2 points, according to DraftKings line as of one hour before tip nationwide.

Feast Week Debrief – College Basketball 2025 Recap

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The college basketball regular season is very irregular, so it behooves fans who hope to pick the (nearly) perfect bracket to pay attention to what happened around the holidays. Feast Week during Thanksgiving is one of the most important weeks. That’s because teams with Final Four aspirations are building up their “non-conference resume.” Later, the conference schedule gets clogged with league opponents in January and February.

BY MATTY D.

My family laughs at me because I am so locked in during Feast Week, paying attention to who is performing well on a neutral floor. That irregular schedule for college hoops starts with a flurry of very important measuring stick games between teams who don’t naturally play each other. January can be more low-key as a bad loss in conference could be excused. However, in February and especially early March, bubble teams need to win every game to solidify their resume for a tournament birth. And, even the teams ranked in the top 10 want wins so that they can lock up 1 and 2 seeds. Here are some of the teams that looked like 1 or 2 seeds this Feast Week.

Looking Like 1 or 2 Seed NCAA Tournament Teams in November

This college basketball season started with an eye-opening performance by Arizona. More specifically, it was a coming out party for freshman Koa Peat, who dominated a game against Florida. However, as the Gators no longer look like a top 10 team and that Wildcats victory fades into our memory, a new red hot team is jumping onto the radar.

Can Wolverines Continue to Dominate College Basketball?

For a brief moment there during the Feast Week festivities, Gonzaga looked like they would be proclaimed the people’s champion and front-runner for the 2026 Championship. The newer “Players Era” Championship feast week tournament has become all the rage. The stock for traditional tournaments such as The Battle for Atlantis and The Mauii Invitational has lost value. In the Players Era semifinals, Gonzaga put a hurting on the always-tough defensive unit that is San Diego State. They looked like a very veteran team that could possibly sail to an unblemished non-conference record and then an even more comfortable conference schedule in the West Coast Conference.

However, then Michigan happened. Gonzaga played Michigan in the championship game and it was never even close. Michigan won by 40 points, Trey McKenney scored 17, and Yexel Lendeborg was named tournament MVP for his blossoming play.

Lendeborg, a native of Puerto Rico, has had an interesting pathway to Division 1 success. He not only played the last two seasons in relative obscurity at UAB, but he also barely knew that he’d be a college athlete during his major life adjustment over high school. Watch a special report by News 11 in Yuma, Arizona, where Lendeborg played junior college basketball.

Another Team in Michigan Carries an Undefeated Record into December

Michigan State was another notable program to pass on the tournament format during Feast Week. They and Duke continued rolling in their own paths. The Spartans continue to be fueled by the nation’s best dunker, Coen Carr and the steady hand of point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. A showcase game between Michigan State and UNC saw the experience and athleticism of the Spartans outpace the sometimes sensational play of UNC super freshman Caleb Wilson.

Houston Out-bullied by the Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee’s win over Houston wasn’t just a notch on the Vols’ non-conference belt — it was a toughness test, and they passed it in the final possessions. In a game defined by defensive clamps and half-court grit, it was Tennessee that made the firmer cuts, secured the harder rebounds, and executed the cleaner possessions when it mattered most. Houston rarely gets out-muscled in winning time, but the Vols did just enough of the dirty work to finish the job and earn one of November’s most meaningful victories. Ja’Kobi Gillespie proved that he was one of the best point guards in the nation (exemplified by how he carried himself in a postgame interview that has since gone viral) and Jaylen Carey was just a men amongst boys down low.