Close-up on College Basketball as Conference Schedules Get Rolling

After an eventful month plus of non-conference games with important outcomes, the college basketball season is transitioning into conference play where we are looking for the best leagues. As for the nation’s best teams, it feels like a band of heavyweights including Michigan, Arizona, and Duke remain squarely at the top. While Purdue was voted just barely outside of the top 5 in this week’s AP voting, they still remain one of the favorites to win a championship.

BY MATTY D.

There is a cluster of teams just below the top 5 that is intriguing to watch. In this week’s AP Top 25 Poll, Iowa State popped into the top 5, ranking as the 4th best team in the nation. This group also includes potential championship pedigree teams such as UCONN, Houston, and Gonzaga. This weekend I wanted to see another potential title contender from this class. I watched Michigan State struggle to separate itself from Penn State in a sleepy Saturday matinee in Happy Valley.

Sparty struggles with PSU signals what’s to come in conference play nationwide

This is a college basketball season where the cream has risen to the top like none other. The best freshman class of players in a generation were the subject of an arms race where major programs have never had more latitude to spend on their stars because of the NIL. However, despite all of this, the underdog still has a shot between the lines and within the 40 minute game clock.

The Michigan State Spartans took their top 10 national ranking into Penn State to play the first of 20 conference games as a heavy favorite, but the pesky Lions were neck-and-neck. This fight reminded me how the top seeded teams need to be on defense this winter against the rogue underdog. Regardless of how many 5-star athletes you have on your roster, a sleepy matinee can always rock a group of college kids who likely would rather sleep-in, anyway.

Arizona Separates Itself in Superior Stretch Against Offensive Juggernaut Alabama

This was the exact stretch where Arizona showed it isn’t just capable of trading blows with an offensive juggernaut — it knows how to end the fight. In a span of barely two minutes, the Wildcats ripped control away through depth, pressure, and poise. Ivan Kharchenkov set the tone with a steal and layup, Brayden Burries followed with another swipe, and suddenly Arizona was running downhill. Tobe Awaka hammered home a dunk off a Burries assist, and when Alabama tried to breathe, Burries calmly buried a three and then leaked out for a layup on the next possession. That sequence wasn’t about one star going nuclear — it was Arizona flaunting waves of contributors, each doing their job at full speed. Burries, though, was the engine. The #12 recruit in the nation looked every bit the part as a freshman, impacting the game as a scorer, facilitator, and disruptor. This is what separates contenders from pretenders: Arizona didn’t just survive the storm — it overwhelmed Alabama with depth, execution, and the kind of finishing instinct that championship teams develop early.

Other Observations from Outside the Top 10 in the AP Top 25

Nebraska is finally getting its due. The Cornhuskers had already proven their worth with a Feast Week tournament championship, but their undefeated record got another notch on the belt this week with an impressive win at Illinois. Nebraska is now finally in the 15th slot in the national rankings.

Kansas freshman superstar Darryn Peterson returned from injury after missing a few games and the Jayhawks responded. KU defeated NC State as a slight underdog and now maintain their ranking at 17th overall.

Florida already has four losses but somehow survived living in the AP Top 25 at 23rd overall.

Georgia and Virginia debut on the Top 25 for the first time this season, with programs like Kentucky, Clemson, and UCLA finding themselves on the outside looking in.

College Basketball Games to Watch for 2025 College Football Conference Championship Weekend

Although conference championship crowns are being captured this weekend, these are some pivotal college basketball matchups to watch closely as the non-conference schedule winds down.

PICKS BY MATTY D.

Michigan State hosts Duke as Sparty Sees Itself as Surprise +1.5 Underdog

I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. You have a darling blue blood who has all of the nation’s highest rated recruits sprinkled with some long tenured program guards who just know how to play basketball. Duke comes straight out of central casting for that one. Enter Tom Izzo’s bunch. They look more like a defensive line group, with perhaps a few black and blue eyes to match. This Motley Cru normally mucks up the action with physical play.

Michigan State finds itself as a surprising 30-1 underdog to win the National Championship at this point, after its already excelled in the non-conference session throughout November.

Give me the Spartans to win outright, but I’ll take the 1 1/2 points if they’re giving it.

Either way, this will be a very interesting test for Duke super freshman Cameron Boozer (among this incredible list of sons of NBA stars currently playing collect basketball) as he has so far cruised to 30 plus point games against major programs. He has made it look easy doing it.

Overlooked Mid-major pick of the college basketball weekend

Not many people nationally are talking about the big upset win that Bowling Green scored at K-State this week. It was an impressive performance from the three point line and specifically for senior Sam Towns who dropped 17 points in the first half.

This, despite K-State having one of the nation’s highest paid players in Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty.

I don’t see a let down from Bowling Green here in this spot as they are spotting Utah Valley a casual 1 1/2 points, according to DraftKings line as of one hour before tip nationwide.

Men’s College Basketball Picks Against the Spread for February 22, 2025

Rolling Out of Bed with College Basketball Picks

Matty D here from CollegeBasketballItest.com, and I’m back again with another round of early college basketball picks. This approach worked well for me last week, and I’m looking to keep the momentum going. Let’s dive into some suspect spreads and intriguing matchups from today’s slate.

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M is favored by 1.5 points in this matchup against Tennessee. This might come as a surprise considering I’ve been high on Texas A&M as a potential championship contender at 40 or 50 to 1 odds. However, despite my faith in the Aggies, I think Tennessee is the better team. The Vols haven’t played to their full potential over the last month, but I see this as a good spot for them. I’m taking Tennessee and the 1.5 points here.

Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Oregon is an 8.5-point underdog against Wisconsin. The Badgers have been playing strong basketball recently, but Oregon is fighting for a tournament spot, and 8.5 points is a lot to be giving up. I like Oregon to cover in this one.

Florida State vs. Louisville

Louisville is favored by 13.5 points against Florida State. The Seminoles have struggled lately, and with Louisville’s up-tempo style of play under head coach Pat Kelsey, I think they have the potential to cover the spread. They’re a top-25 team, and with their current momentum, they could handle this one convincingly.

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia

West Virginia is laying 11.5 points against Texas Tech. This is a tough game to call, especially with West Virginia missing one of its key players, Tucker DeVries, whose father, Darian DeVries, is the team’s head coach. If I had to pick, I’d lean toward West Virginia, but this might be a game to avoid altogether.

Iowa State vs. Houston

One of the marquee matchups of the day features Iowa State taking on Houston. Both teams are elite defensively and could make deep tournament runs. Surprisingly, Iowa State is getting 11.5 points. In what should be a low-scoring defensive battle, that’s a big number to be receiving. I like Iowa State to cover, especially since they might be looking for a bounce-back performance after a disappointing showing recently.

Georgia vs. Auburn

Auburn is a 16.5-point favorite against Georgia. The Bulldogs have been a tough out for some SEC teams this season, making this a tricky game. I’m staying away from this one because I don’t want to be sweating in the final moments to see if Auburn covers or not.

Clemson vs. SMU

SMU put on an offensive clinic against Notre Dame recently, so I’m surprised to see them as an underdog at home against Clemson. With SMU getting 1.5 points, I’m taking them in this spot.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas

Kansas is giving 14.5 points to Oklahoma State, and I don’t think they should be laying that many points to anyone right now. The Jayhawks have been inconsistent, especially during their trip out west against Utah and BYU. I’ll probably stay away from this game entirely, but if I had to pick, I’d take Oklahoma State with the points.

Florida vs. LSU

Florida is favored by 10.5 points against LSU. The Tigers are one of the few SEC teams unlikely to make the tournament, while Florida is in contention for a No. 1 seed. I believe Florida can cover the spread here, as they have much more at stake.

Kentucky vs. Alabama

This game was an instant classic when these two teams faced off in Lexington on MLK weekend. Now, Kentucky is a 10.5-point underdog as they travel to Alabama. That spread seems a bit high, but I’ll be holding off on making a final call until I see more developments.

St. Mary’s Visits Gonzaga as a 6 Point Favorite

St. Mary’s and Gonzaga battled things out about a month ago with St. Mary’s hosting as a slight underdog. In a bizarre display of many missed free throws, the Gaels survived an ugly contest. I just think Gonzaga is overdue for a good showing here at home and a quality win to solidify a tournament berth as a lower seed than we’re used to seeing the Bulldogs. My guess is that they’ll finish the season as a 9 or 10 seed.

St. Mary’s has a son of a former NBA star on its roster. Can you name him?
👶Click here for the list of sons of NBA players in the 2025 Men’s College Basketball Season👶

College Basketball Against the Spread Picks – Closing Thought

That wraps up my early thoughts as I roll out of bed, checking for suspect spreads. Be sure to check out my website, CollegeBasketballItest.com, as well as my YouTube and Twitter for more picks and insights. Let me know what you’re seeing today, and enjoy the action!