What teams could make a late season surge in college basketball?
The question in college basketball is not who are the top teams, but instead we are keeping an eye on which teams could move from unranked to tournament sleeper. With an active transfer portal in the offseason, it’s hard to keep track of rosters from year to year. Who is on what team? The truth is that many teams in the top 10 have continuity from the past year, but then the next top 50 teams or so are fluid. There’s a lot of team chemistry that is still building, with head coaches like Kentucky’s Mark Pope a mad scientist experimenting with different lineups in an AAU-like scramble to achieve cohesion in one season.
College basketball’s favorites and underdogs for a 2024-2025 NCAA Championship
The top of the list has remained mostly the same. Duke and Auburn are taking turns as the nation’s number 1 overall ranked team, and therefore the lowest odds to win a title. As this article is being published, each team sits around 6-1 to win it all. Duke and Auburn started the season in that same 10-1 vicinity. They were joined then, and continue to be joined now, by Kansas, Gonzaga, Houston, UCONN, and Iowa State in the second tier of teams in the 10-1 to 25-1 range. Once you start reading below the 25-1 line, things get really dicey. There is a lot of volatility within college basketball’s rankings of say the 20th overall teams and the 60th overall teams. In late November, teams like UNC, Arkansas and Indiana were in the conversation as a third teir of title contenders. However, now those teams would be happy to even make the tournament.
A screenshot of DraftKings odds in late November shows how much has changed
What college basketball teams are underrated right now?
The team that probably headlines a list of surprising, surging, underdog teams, is the Louisville Cardinals. Led by longtime Wisconsin Badger point guard Chucky Hepburn and head coach Pat Kelsey, this team is really starting to put it together. In mid-January, the Cardinals raced away with a win against Syracuse at the former Carrier Dome. Coach Pat Kelsey is known for his track meet style, but even that 85-61 should make you pay attention. This team could race its way into a dangerous 5 or 6 seed before we know it.
Another team worth watching is UCF. Lefty Keyshawn Hall just dropped 40 on Arizona State in their building (including 29 in the first half) to bolster their record to 12-4.
UCF is not the only surprising team in the newly-mixed Big 12. West Virginia is a bubble team and has notched important resumes wins so far including a New Year’s Eve win at Allen Fieldhouse. Former Drake head coach Darian Devries has taken his talents (and his son Tucker) to Morgantown with a balanced athletic team led by top scorer Javon Small. This team features six players averaging at least 4 1/2 rebounds per game. When you watch, you’ll see they play for each other.
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What NCAAB teams to watch for on Saturday, January 18, 2025
UConn’s quest to 3-peat as champions is a testament to their resilience and their ability to adapt in high-pressure situations. After a turbulent holiday season marred by losses to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton, the Huskies looked far from their championship form. However, with the emergence of their star freshman—Liam McNeeley—and the steady leadership of Coach Dan Hurley, UConn has regained its focus. The freshman phenom has electrified the court, leading the team in scoring and providing the spark they needed during a critical midseason stretch. As the Huskies prepare for March Madness, their ability to rebound from adversity and channel their championship pedigree will be key to securing a historic third consecutive title.
Clemson and Wake Forest find themselves in a prime position to take control of an ACC conference that is facing an identity crisis. After Duke’s dominance at the top of the pack, tournament seeds are up for grabs in the league with traditional powers like Syracuse, UNC, and UVA experiencing user error. Clemson has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a strong defense and an emerging backcourt duo. Meanwhile, Wake Forest’s Steve Forbes is poised to make his mark. After several years of building his program, Forbes has assembled a team capable of making noise in the ACC. His emphasis on tough, physical basketball and disciplined play could give Wake Forest the edge it needs to capitalize on a wide-open conference race. The opportunity is there for the taking, but both teams will need to show consistency and poise as the season heats up.
In the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake is under pressure to prove it is the cream of the crop. Currently boasting a solid record and led by their prolific scorer Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging almost 18 points per game, the Bulldogs have been the team to beat in their league. However, questions remain about their ability to dominate when it matters most. With key matchups against rival programs on the horizon, Drake has the chance to solidify its status as a powerhouse in the conference. To do so, they’ll need to continue their balanced approach—combining high-octane offense with a stingy defense that can shut down opponents in crunch time. The Bulldogs’ performance over the next few weeks will be critical not just for their NCAA tournament aspirations but also for cementing their legacy within the Missouri Valley Conference.
Last but not least: Picks for Saturday, January 18th:
This is a teaser pick on FanDuel that took advantage of a 13-leg promotional105% boost. Louisville -10.5, UK 6.5, Clemoson +9.5, UCONN -1.5, Auburn +2.5, Wake Forest +4.5, Cincy -3.5, Xavier +15.5, Tennessee +2.5, Mizzou +3.5, Drake +1.5, A&M -5.5, BYU +6.5.
Whether you’re looking to snag a great price on a college basketball future, or just cramming before the 2025 NCAA Basketball tournament, this list will track the best 5 values.
Of course, this is a subjective opinion.
Best Long-shot odds for the 2024-2025 College Basketball Season
This website and its author Matty D. focuses on what is seen on TV (and occasionally in person), as compared to analytics and top 25 lists.
Odds for the 2024-2025 college basketball season started out with a log jam of great teams in the 9-1 to 16-1 territory. Auburn started the year around 16-1 or 20-1 to win it all, before climbing to the top one or two teams in the national rankings.
Both Auburn and Duke have spent weeks are the overwhelming favorites for odds to win it all, while a pack of second tier teams were separated starting around the 10-1, 12-1 territory afterwards. Some Sportsbooks have even listed a combined ticket of either Duke or Auburn to win a championship in the +120 moneyline territory.
Look for links to buy some futures tickets from ourPropSwap page in the article below! Look for the stock up and the green check mark emojis. 📈✅
A stack of blue bloods cluttered at the top of the futures board to start the season. UCONN’s stock will drop, who will become the new odds-on favorite to win it all? #Duke, #KUBball, Bama, Houston literally vying for this ephemeral spot as we speak… pic.twitter.com/HC6UZlq4QI
With the fluctuating of top teams oscillating somewhere in this 10-1 or 20-1 territory, below are my favorite long-shot odds to win the title at 55-1 or longer. For your information, many teams are vacillating in the 20-1 to 50-1 price range. If you like the teams in that territory, this isn’t your article. But it’s still worth watching. For example, on February 8th Illinois had shifted from a 30-1 odds team to a 55-1 team to win it all. If you love the KU Jayhawks, it’s worth noting they’ve fluctuated between 30-1 and 35-1 quite routinely. If you love them so much, you should invest in that 35-1 number after their next loss. Following a win, they’ve been 25-1 or 30-1 on popular sites such as DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
BYU Odds to Win a Men’s College Basketball Championship, Link to Buy a Ticket
5. Continuity is an important ingredient in this exercise. Most times, when a new coach comes into a program, all players flee to find other opportunities. Not with BYU. Although new head coach Kevin Young has come in, a small core of important contributors have remained with the Cougars. And they’ve now been surrounded with NBA talent such as Russian Egor Demin, who is currently projected as the 18th overall pick in an mock draft on NBA.com. This team is hitting its stride with road wins in the late stages of the regular season against top tier teams such as Iowa State and Arizona. They demolished Kansas. And they get a huge volume of 3pt shots, which can overcome most deficits when they get down (its inevitable if you’re going to play multiple tournament games). This team started February in the 125-1 range, but look at them now!
Drake Bulldogs Perhaps America’s Best Underdogs at 500-1!
4. Two words. Bennett Stirtz. He is the smoothest point guard in America that no one is talking about. Drake has a wealth of Kansas City area kids and transfers from Northwestern Missouri State, where the new head coach has had championship success.
Northwest Missouri State’s championship pedigree under Ben McCollum is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His four national titles and 81.2% career win rate showcase his ability to build and sustain an elite program. McCollum’s proven ability to recruit, develop, and maximize talent will translate well as he steps onto a larger stage. His history of dominating conference play and guiding players to national accolades suggests that his approach—rooted in discipline, strategy, and player development—can immediately impact a Division I program. Expect his winning mentality to create a competitive and successful culture at the next level.
Yale Basketball Intriguing Odds at 1,000-1 to win it all
3. With the exception of center Danny Wolf who transferred to Michigan, this Ivy League power is an intelligent bet to make at 1,000 – 1 because of its returning talent and wisdom. This Yale squad upset Auburn last year in the 13 vs. 4 seed matchup. And with exception to its point guards, this is the same Auburn team that is currently ranked a heavy overall favorite to win the 2025 championship. Let’s get crazy and picture a scenario where, at 250-1 odds, Yale makes the Final Four and squares for a rematch with Auburn in 2025!
Ball handling is at a premium during the NCAA Tournament. And Yale has a healthy contingency of trusted guards. Senior starters Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas return to the 2025 roster with hopes to advance its Cinderella aspirations seen during 2024 March Madness. If you remember, Poulakidas has some dramatic shot making in the closing moments of that 2024 contest to march the Bulldogs back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter (equivalent).
John Poulakidas with a serious game face as he pulls off a career high in the 2024 tourney
As for this current iteration of the Yale Bulldogs in the 2024-2025 regular season, there’s an argument to be made that they’re a better team than last year. Yale basketball has been on a tear, riding a nine-game winning streak to a 16-6 record (9-0 in Ivy League play). The Bulldogs have dominated conference opponents with decisive wins over Harvard, Princeton, and Penn while also pulling out a nail-biting 72-71 victory over Pennsylvania. Their early-season struggles featured close losses to major conference opponents such as Minnesota (59-56) and UTEP (75-74), along with a high-scoring overtime defeat to Delaware (100-94), showcasing their ability to compete in tight matchups. Throughout the season, a core group of players has consistently led the way—John Poulakidas has been the team’s primary scorer, with standout performances like a 32-point outing against Cornell, while Danny Townsend and Yassine Gharram have been dominant on the glass. Bez Mbeng has been a steady facilitator, regularly leading in assists, including a 12-assist showing against Cornell. With their current momentum, Yale has established itself as the team to beat in the Ivy League.
St. Mary’s Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
2. The St. Mary’s Gaels get some respect here as a top choice for futures values. The Gaels roster combines some long-time players with tournament experience, but a splash of new generation players like combo guard Mikey Lewis. He and veteran point guard Augustus Marciulionis make for a formidable pairing in the backcourt. (Yes, Marciulonis is one of many sons of NBA players playing in college basketball right now. See the list here).
The Gaels got out to a great start this season, winning 9 of its first 10 games. As always, its tournament resume will be filtered in large part by whether it can beat Gonzaga. The play the Zags twice in February and won both matchups! They wrapped up the WCC regular season title on February 22nd, a stunning accomplishment for a team that’s barely ever ranked in the AP Top 25 (this season, at least).
At the time of this article being published, the Gaels futures odds had a large variability. On FanDuel, odds to make a Final Four were 45-1. On DraftKings, the same odds were 25-1.
St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga in an uncharacteristically low shooting percentage (including free throws) game for both teams to begin February, when St. Mary’s championship hopes stuck around 80-1.
Texas A&M Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Texas A&M has been on this list since it began the 2024-205 campaign at 80-1, so it will remain grandfathered on this “best of” list despite its price surging to around 30-1 while it sticks in the AP top 10 in mid-February.
The Aggies return 82% of their scoring from the 2023-2024 campaign and surge here to the best overall value to win the tournament. Led by point guard Wade Taylor IV, the Aggies have the depth, the coach, and the culture with its commitment to defense. Their roster is an embarrassment of riches when it comes to 6-7 to 6-9 athletes with a multi-faceted talents. However, they don’t really play many at 6-10 or taller.
Texas A&M started the season at 75-1 or 80-1 to win a title, based on where you’ve seen their odds.
If for some reason you don’t like Texas A&M, but you’re looking for a similarly valued team from the stacked SEC, consider the Missouri Tigers.
CUT LINE 2025:
“Also Receiving Votes” for College Basketball Best Future Value Teams for 2025
Michigan Wolverines Import Cinderella Ingredients to Make for an NCAAB Sleeper
Grand Canyon Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Removed from this List after losing to CA Baptist
We are still not over the pummeling that Grand Canyon suffered to California Baptist. I’ve never seen that program play, but it’s hard to put my support beyond the Antelopes after that ass beating. Here’s what was previously written: At 250-1 to win a title on DraftKings around the holidays, the Antelopes were be an intriguing lottery ticket to receive in the Christmas stocking. A blowout loss to California Baptist in early February gave you pause as it put the Antelopes behind Utah Valley in the conference standings. Still, this conference and this team is worth a pick as part of this list.
Grand Canyon has a lot of ingredients you look for when searching for a high ceiling stock. First, they have a winnable conference. You wouldn’t expect them to get an at-large, although it’s actually possible with this team. However, they should be able to handle in-conference competition such as Southern Utah and Abilene Christian in the WAC conference standings. Secondly, they have tournament experience. In fact, they logged a win against another team on this list.
As February began, CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm had them slated as a 13 seed due to play Memphis. That would be the type of winnable game that could propel the antelope into a position as the hunter and not the prey.
Grand Canyon was a 12 seed last year when it got a win. Last but not least, they have a star player who can go into takeover mode. Tyon Grant-Foster averages over 16 points per game (and dropped 22 in last year’s tournament win).
Michigan Basketball Cut from the Top Underdog List
Michigan was cut from this top 5 list after its performance became shaky in late February, but it’s ticket price become more costly. The Wolverines struggled to beat Rutgers at home and then got dominated by Illinois.
This blog had previously published how, “We can’t ignore how Michigan imported Dusty May, the 2023-2024 darling of the tournament leading his Florida Atlantic Owls to the Final 4. Also, they’ve added a 7-footer from that squad plus an additional 7-footer from another Cinderella Yale program.”
Arizona State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Arizona State was pulled from this list after getting into its conference schedule and playing typical unpredictable undisciplined basketball for a Bobby Hurley coached team (I know, counterintuitive, you would think). Previous comments: “This team might be a riskier pick than the aforementioned team with an equal price. The Sun Devils odds could be more volatile than coach Bobby Hurley’s behavior on the sidelines. That’s why they call it gambling. As a newcomer to the Big 12, you’ll have to monitor this team’s regular season performance. The Sun Devils have four guards averaging 9 points or more (three in double digits). As its name would suggest, this team can get hot (or cold) with devilish volatility.
The Sun Devils were 250-1 on DraftKings on December 14, 2024 to win it all.”
Penn State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Penn State got off to a hot start with a court-storming home win against Purdue, but as we continue to watch the Big 10 this season, it seems to be a down year for the overinflated league. Previously wrote: “The Big 10 is going to be a tough conference to predict with traditional powers such as Purdue and Ohio State seemingly in a bit of a program transition. Purdue suffered some upsets early in the season as it adjusts to life without Zack Edey. And Ohio State is a mess. In the meantime, a team like Penn State is jumping off the page with its futures odds sitting at 100-1 in mid-December.”
College Basketball Eye Test 