Matty D here from CollegeBasketballItest.com, and I’m back again with another round of early college basketball picks. This approach worked well for me last week, and I’m looking to keep the momentum going. Let’s dive into some suspect spreads and intriguing matchups from today’s slate.
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M is favored by 1.5 points in this matchup against Tennessee. This might come as a surprise considering I’ve been high on Texas A&M as a potential championship contender at 40 or 50 to 1 odds. However, despite my faith in the Aggies, I think Tennessee is the better team. The Vols haven’t played to their full potential over the last month, but I see this as a good spot for them. I’m taking Tennessee and the 1.5 points here.
Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Oregon is an 8.5-point underdog against Wisconsin. The Badgers have been playing strong basketball recently, but Oregon is fighting for a tournament spot, and 8.5 points is a lot to be giving up. I like Oregon to cover in this one.
Florida State vs. Louisville
Louisville is favored by 13.5 points against Florida State. The Seminoles have struggled lately, and with Louisville’s up-tempo style of play under head coach Pat Kelsey, I think they have the potential to cover the spread. They’re a top-25 team, and with their current momentum, they could handle this one convincingly.
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
West Virginia is laying 11.5 points against Texas Tech. This is a tough game to call, especially with West Virginia missing one of its key players, Tucker DeVries, whose father, Darian DeVries, is the team’s head coach. If I had to pick, I’d lean toward West Virginia, but this might be a game to avoid altogether.
Iowa State vs. Houston
One of the marquee matchups of the day features Iowa State taking on Houston. Both teams are elite defensively and could make deep tournament runs. Surprisingly, Iowa State is getting 11.5 points. In what should be a low-scoring defensive battle, that’s a big number to be receiving. I like Iowa State to cover, especially since they might be looking for a bounce-back performance after a disappointing showing recently.
Georgia vs. Auburn
Auburn is a 16.5-point favorite against Georgia. The Bulldogs have been a tough out for some SEC teams this season, making this a tricky game. I’m staying away from this one because I don’t want to be sweating in the final moments to see if Auburn covers or not.
Clemson vs. SMU
SMU put on an offensive clinic against Notre Dame recently, so I’m surprised to see them as an underdog at home against Clemson. With SMU getting 1.5 points, I’m taking them in this spot.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas
Kansas is giving 14.5 points to Oklahoma State, and I don’t think they should be laying that many points to anyone right now. The Jayhawks have been inconsistent, especially during their trip out west against Utah and BYU. I’ll probably stay away from this game entirely, but if I had to pick, I’d take Oklahoma State with the points.
Florida vs. LSU
Florida is favored by 10.5 points against LSU. The Tigers are one of the few SEC teams unlikely to make the tournament, while Florida is in contention for a No. 1 seed. I believe Florida can cover the spread here, as they have much more at stake.
Kentucky vs. Alabama
This game was an instant classic when these two teams faced off in Lexington on MLK weekend. Now, Kentucky is a 10.5-point underdog as they travel to Alabama. That spread seems a bit high, but I’ll be holding off on making a final call until I see more developments.
St. Mary’s Visits Gonzaga as a 6 Point Favorite
St. Mary’s and Gonzaga battled things out about a month ago with St. Mary’s hosting as a slight underdog. In a bizarre display of many missed free throws, the Gaels survived an ugly contest. I just think Gonzaga is overdue for a good showing here at home and a quality win to solidify a tournament berth as a lower seed than we’re used to seeing the Bulldogs. My guess is that they’ll finish the season as a 9 or 10 seed.
College Basketball Against the Spread Picks – Closing Thought
That wraps up my early thoughts as I roll out of bed, checking for suspect spreads. Be sure to check out my website, CollegeBasketballItest.com, as well as my YouTube and Twitter for more picks and insights. Let me know what you’re seeing today, and enjoy the action!
It might be February first, but March Madness tournament resumes are starting to crystalize for some of college basketball’s most hopeful teams. Here are my picks combined with some recent analysis powered by Chatgpt-4.
Florida Gators (UF) +5 vs. Tennessee Volunteers
The Florida Gators are set to face the Tennessee Volunteers today. In their last meeting, Florida secured a significant 30-point victory over Tennessee. The Volunteers will be seeking revenge in this matchup. We like Florida because of their strong defensive rebounding and ability to control the tempo against physical opponents.
Missouri Tigers (#Mizzou) +6 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Missouri Tigers, currently ranked 20th, are on the road against the 14th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs. Mississippi State is favored by 6.5 points in this matchup. We like Missouri because they have shown resilience in close games and have an effective perimeter shooting attack.
NC State Wolfpack +6 vs. Clemson Tigers
NC State is hosting the Clemson Tigers in a mid-afternoon game. The Wolfpack will look to leverage their home-court advantage in this ACC matchup. We like NC State because of their aggressive defensive pressure, which often forces turnovers and creates transition opportunities.
Auburn Tigers -5.5 vs. Ole Miss Rebels
The top-ranked Auburn Tigers are visiting the 23rd-ranked Ole Miss Rebels. Auburn is favored by 6.5 points in this SEC showdown. We like Auburn because of their deep rotation and ability to wear down opponents over 40 minutes.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Rutgers is hosting Michigan in a Big Ten matchup. The Scarlet Knights will aim to capitalize on their home advantage against the Wolverines. We like Rutgers because of their tenacious perimeter defense and ability to defend the three-point line effectively.
Kansas Jayhawks (#KUBBall) +2.5 vs. Baylor Bears
The 11th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks are on the road against the Baylor Bears. Baylor is favored by 2.5 points in this Big 12 clash. We like Kansas because of their disciplined half-court offense and experience in high-pressure matchups.
UCF Knights -2 vs. BYU Cougars
UCF is hosting BYU in an evening matchup. The Knights are favored by 2 points in this contest. We like UCF because of their strong interior presence and ability to dominate in the paint.
Texas Longhorns -1.5 vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Texas is visiting Oklahoma in a Big 12 rivalry game. The Longhorns are slight favorites with a 1.5-point advantage. We like Texas because of their balanced scoring and ability to handle defensive pressure.
North Carolina Tar Heels (UNC) +13.5 vs. Duke Blue Devils
The Tar Heels are facing their arch-rivals, the 2nd-ranked Duke Blue Devils, at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke is heavily favored by 13.5 points in this storied rivalry. We like North Carolina because of their fast-paced offense and ability to push the tempo against elite teams.
UConn Huskies +6.5 vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
UConn is on the road against Marquette. The Huskies are 6.5-point underdogs in this Big East matchup. We like UConn because of their disciplined defense and efficient guard play.
South Carolina Gamecocks +5 vs. Texas A&M
We like South Carolina because Texas A&M mixes and matches lineups so often that it never runs away with a game.
Kentucky -11 vs. Arkansas
South Carolina is visiting the Kentucky at Rupp Arena with a highly anticipation return for former Wildcats coach John Calipari. Kentucky is favored by 11 points in this SEC contest. We like Kentucky because Arkansas has been playing poorly all season and we don’t expect this high pressure environment to change that.
St. Mary’s Gaels +1.5 vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
In a late-night West Coast Conference showdown, St. Mary’s is hosting the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga is favored by 1.5 points in this closely contested matchup. We like St. Mary’s because of their methodical offensive execution and ability to control the pace of the game.
Your selections encompass a mix of underdogs and favorites, reflecting a strategic approach to today’s diverse slate of college basketball games. Monitoring each team’s recent performances and current form will be crucial as the day’s action unfolds.
After a long hiatus from publishing Saturday college basketball sports betting picks on Twitter, I’ve re-emerged as the same old dude.
Speaking of old dudes, the college basketball transfer portal and the “throw-everything-at-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks” approach to roster construction has led to my uncertainty in picking games early in the season. It takes teams longer to gel.
Which College Basketball Rosters Have a Healthy Chemistry with a touch of Transfers
I don’t like teams like Texas that seemingly always have one sub-group of transfer portal elders mixed with one diaper dandy expected to go in the NBA Lottery round. As a college basketball fan, I do love teams that have a healthy incumbent core and are adding a few seasoned transfers for their first and only cameo in the portal with the hopes of winning a championship. A guy like Mason Gillis comes to mind in that scenario. He played multiple seasons with the Purdue Boilermakers, including a championship game runner-up last season, before transferring to Duke where he hopes to finally cut down a net with a championship ring.
Underdogs to Watch for College Basketball Games on Saturday, January 25, 2025
The Tennessee Volunteers find themselves in a rare position as a 5 point underdog this weekend against Auburn. Both teams have injury concerns among their low post stars, but with the Vols sporting two of the best guards in the country, this seems like an easy bet.
Another team that has a surprising number today is the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. You’d think that with two potential NBA Lottery picks and one of the best coaches in the game, Rutgers would be in better position right now. However, they are getting 5 1/2 points at home hosting Michigan State. I will take the five-and-a-half knowing that Rutgers postseason hopes really rest on games like these.
What teams could make a late season surge in college basketball?
The question in college basketball is not who are the top teams, but instead we are keeping an eye on which teams could move from unranked to tournament sleeper. With an active transfer portal in the offseason, it’s hard to keep track of rosters from year to year. Who is on what team? The truth is that many teams in the top 10 have continuity from the past year, but then the next top 50 teams or so are fluid. There’s a lot of team chemistry that is still building, with head coaches like Kentucky’s Mark Pope a mad scientist experimenting with different lineups in an AAU-like scramble to achieve cohesion in one season.
College basketball’s favorites and underdogs for a 2024-2025 NCAA Championship
The top of the list has remained mostly the same. Duke and Auburn are taking turns as the nation’s number 1 overall ranked team, and therefore the lowest odds to win a title. As this article is being published, each team sits around 6-1 to win it all. Duke and Auburn started the season in that same 10-1 vicinity. They were joined then, and continue to be joined now, by Kansas, Gonzaga, Houston, UCONN, and Iowa State in the second tier of teams in the 10-1 to 25-1 range. Once you start reading below the 25-1 line, things get really dicey. There is a lot of volatility within college basketball’s rankings of say the 20th overall teams and the 60th overall teams. In late November, teams like UNC, Arkansas and Indiana were in the conversation as a third teir of title contenders. However, now those teams would be happy to even make the tournament.
A screenshot of DraftKings odds in late November shows how much has changed
What college basketball teams are underrated right now?
The team that probably headlines a list of surprising, surging, underdog teams, is the Louisville Cardinals. Led by longtime Wisconsin Badger point guard Chucky Hepburn and head coach Pat Kelsey, this team is really starting to put it together. In mid-January, the Cardinals raced away with a win against Syracuse at the former Carrier Dome. Coach Pat Kelsey is known for his track meet style, but even that 85-61 should make you pay attention. This team could race its way into a dangerous 5 or 6 seed before we know it.
Another team worth watching is UCF. Lefty Keyshawn Hall just dropped 40 on Arizona State in their building (including 29 in the first half) to bolster their record to 12-4.
UCF is not the only surprising team in the newly-mixed Big 12. West Virginia is a bubble team and has notched important resumes wins so far including a New Year’s Eve win at Allen Fieldhouse. Former Drake head coach Darian Devries has taken his talents (and his son Tucker) to Morgantown with a balanced athletic team led by top scorer Javon Small. This team features six players averaging at least 4 1/2 rebounds per game. When you watch, you’ll see they play for each other.
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What NCAAB teams to watch for on Saturday, January 18, 2025
UConn’s quest to 3-peat as champions is a testament to their resilience and their ability to adapt in high-pressure situations. After a turbulent holiday season marred by losses to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton, the Huskies looked far from their championship form. However, with the emergence of their star freshman—Liam McNeeley—and the steady leadership of Coach Dan Hurley, UConn has regained its focus. The freshman phenom has electrified the court, leading the team in scoring and providing the spark they needed during a critical midseason stretch. As the Huskies prepare for March Madness, their ability to rebound from adversity and channel their championship pedigree will be key to securing a historic third consecutive title.
Clemson and Wake Forest find themselves in a prime position to take control of an ACC conference that is facing an identity crisis. After Duke’s dominance at the top of the pack, tournament seeds are up for grabs in the league with traditional powers like Syracuse, UNC, and UVA experiencing user error. Clemson has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a strong defense and an emerging backcourt duo. Meanwhile, Wake Forest’s Steve Forbes is poised to make his mark. After several years of building his program, Forbes has assembled a team capable of making noise in the ACC. His emphasis on tough, physical basketball and disciplined play could give Wake Forest the edge it needs to capitalize on a wide-open conference race. The opportunity is there for the taking, but both teams will need to show consistency and poise as the season heats up.
In the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake is under pressure to prove it is the cream of the crop. Currently boasting a solid record and led by their prolific scorer Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging almost 18 points per game, the Bulldogs have been the team to beat in their league. However, questions remain about their ability to dominate when it matters most. With key matchups against rival programs on the horizon, Drake has the chance to solidify its status as a powerhouse in the conference. To do so, they’ll need to continue their balanced approach—combining high-octane offense with a stingy defense that can shut down opponents in crunch time. The Bulldogs’ performance over the next few weeks will be critical not just for their NCAA tournament aspirations but also for cementing their legacy within the Missouri Valley Conference.
Last but not least: Picks for Saturday, January 18th:
This is a teaser pick on FanDuel that took advantage of a 13-leg promotional105% boost. Louisville -10.5, UK 6.5, Clemoson +9.5, UCONN -1.5, Auburn +2.5, Wake Forest +4.5, Cincy -3.5, Xavier +15.5, Tennessee +2.5, Mizzou +3.5, Drake +1.5, A&M -5.5, BYU +6.5.
Whether you’re looking to snag a great price on a college basketball future, or just cramming before the 2025 NCAA Basketball tournament, this list will track the best 5 values.
Of course, this is a subjective opinion.
Best Long-shot odds for the 2024-2025 College Basketball Season
This website and its author Matty D. focuses on what is seen on TV (and occasionally in person), as compared to analytics and top 25 lists.
Odds for the 2024-2025 college basketball season started out with a log jam of great teams in the 9-1 to 16-1 territory. Auburn started the year around 16-1 or 20-1 to win it all, before climbing to the top one or two teams in the national rankings.
Both Auburn and Duke have spent weeks are the overwhelming favorites for odds to win it all, while a pack of second tier teams were separated starting around the 10-1, 12-1 territory afterwards. Some Sportsbooks have even listed a combined ticket of either Duke or Auburn to win a championship in the +120 moneyline territory.
Look for links to buy some futures tickets from ourPropSwap page in the article below! Look for the stock up and the green check mark emojis. 📈✅
A stack of blue bloods cluttered at the top of the futures board to start the season. UCONN’s stock will drop, who will become the new odds-on favorite to win it all? #Duke, #KUBball, Bama, Houston literally vying for this ephemeral spot as we speak… pic.twitter.com/HC6UZlq4QI
With the fluctuating of top teams oscillating somewhere in this 10-1 or 20-1 territory, below are my favorite long-shot odds to win the title at 55-1 or longer. For your information, many teams are vacillating in the 20-1 to 50-1 price range. If you like the teams in that territory, this isn’t your article. But it’s still worth watching. For example, on February 8th Illinois had shifted from a 30-1 odds team to a 55-1 team to win it all. If you love the KU Jayhawks, it’s worth noting they’ve fluctuated between 30-1 and 35-1 quite routinely. If you love them so much, you should invest in that 35-1 number after their next loss. Following a win, they’ve been 25-1 or 30-1 on popular sites such as DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
BYU Odds to Win a Men’s College Basketball Championship, Link to Buy a Ticket
5. Continuity is an important ingredient in this exercise. Most times, when a new coach comes into a program, all players flee to find other opportunities. Not with BYU. Although new head coach Kevin Young has come in, a small core of important contributors have remained with the Cougars. And they’ve now been surrounded with NBA talent such as Russian Egor Demin, who is currently projected as the 18th overall pick in an mock draft on NBA.com. This team is hitting its stride with road wins in the late stages of the regular season against top tier teams such as Iowa State and Arizona. They demolished Kansas. And they get a huge volume of 3pt shots, which can overcome most deficits when they get down (its inevitable if you’re going to play multiple tournament games). This team started February in the 125-1 range, but look at them now!
Drake Bulldogs Perhaps America’s Best Underdogs at 500-1!
4. Two words. Bennett Stirtz. He is the smoothest point guard in America that no one is talking about. Drake has a wealth of Kansas City area kids and transfers from Northwestern Missouri State, where the new head coach has had championship success.
Northwest Missouri State’s championship pedigree under Ben McCollum is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His four national titles and 81.2% career win rate showcase his ability to build and sustain an elite program. McCollum’s proven ability to recruit, develop, and maximize talent will translate well as he steps onto a larger stage. His history of dominating conference play and guiding players to national accolades suggests that his approach—rooted in discipline, strategy, and player development—can immediately impact a Division I program. Expect his winning mentality to create a competitive and successful culture at the next level.
Yale Basketball Intriguing Odds at 1,000-1 to win it all
3. With the exception of center Danny Wolf who transferred to Michigan, this Ivy League power is an intelligent bet to make at 1,000 – 1 because of its returning talent and wisdom. This Yale squad upset Auburn last year in the 13 vs. 4 seed matchup. And with exception to its point guards, this is the same Auburn team that is currently ranked a heavy overall favorite to win the 2025 championship. Let’s get crazy and picture a scenario where, at 250-1 odds, Yale makes the Final Four and squares for a rematch with Auburn in 2025!
Ball handling is at a premium during the NCAA Tournament. And Yale has a healthy contingency of trusted guards. Senior starters Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas return to the 2025 roster with hopes to advance its Cinderella aspirations seen during 2024 March Madness. If you remember, Poulakidas has some dramatic shot making in the closing moments of that 2024 contest to march the Bulldogs back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter (equivalent).
John Poulakidas with a serious game face as he pulls off a career high in the 2024 tourney
As for this current iteration of the Yale Bulldogs in the 2024-2025 regular season, there’s an argument to be made that they’re a better team than last year. Yale basketball has been on a tear, riding a nine-game winning streak to a 16-6 record (9-0 in Ivy League play). The Bulldogs have dominated conference opponents with decisive wins over Harvard, Princeton, and Penn while also pulling out a nail-biting 72-71 victory over Pennsylvania. Their early-season struggles featured close losses to major conference opponents such as Minnesota (59-56) and UTEP (75-74), along with a high-scoring overtime defeat to Delaware (100-94), showcasing their ability to compete in tight matchups. Throughout the season, a core group of players has consistently led the way—John Poulakidas has been the team’s primary scorer, with standout performances like a 32-point outing against Cornell, while Danny Townsend and Yassine Gharram have been dominant on the glass. Bez Mbeng has been a steady facilitator, regularly leading in assists, including a 12-assist showing against Cornell. With their current momentum, Yale has established itself as the team to beat in the Ivy League.
St. Mary’s Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
2. The St. Mary’s Gaels get some respect here as a top choice for futures values. The Gaels roster combines some long-time players with tournament experience, but a splash of new generation players like combo guard Mikey Lewis. He and veteran point guard Augustus Marciulionis make for a formidable pairing in the backcourt. (Yes, Marciulonis is one of many sons of NBA players playing in college basketball right now. See the list here).
The Gaels got out to a great start this season, winning 9 of its first 10 games. As always, its tournament resume will be filtered in large part by whether it can beat Gonzaga. The play the Zags twice in February and won both matchups! They wrapped up the WCC regular season title on February 22nd, a stunning accomplishment for a team that’s barely ever ranked in the AP Top 25 (this season, at least).
At the time of this article being published, the Gaels futures odds had a large variability. On FanDuel, odds to make a Final Four were 45-1. On DraftKings, the same odds were 25-1.
St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga in an uncharacteristically low shooting percentage (including free throws) game for both teams to begin February, when St. Mary’s championship hopes stuck around 80-1.
Texas A&M Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Texas A&M has been on this list since it began the 2024-205 campaign at 80-1, so it will remain grandfathered on this “best of” list despite its price surging to around 30-1 while it sticks in the AP top 10 in mid-February.
The Aggies return 82% of their scoring from the 2023-2024 campaign and surge here to the best overall value to win the tournament. Led by point guard Wade Taylor IV, the Aggies have the depth, the coach, and the culture with its commitment to defense. Their roster is an embarrassment of riches when it comes to 6-7 to 6-9 athletes with a multi-faceted talents. However, they don’t really play many at 6-10 or taller.
Texas A&M started the season at 75-1 or 80-1 to win a title, based on where you’ve seen their odds.
If for some reason you don’t like Texas A&M, but you’re looking for a similarly valued team from the stacked SEC, consider the Missouri Tigers.
CUT LINE 2025:
“Also Receiving Votes” for College Basketball Best Future Value Teams for 2025
Michigan Wolverines Import Cinderella Ingredients to Make for an NCAAB Sleeper
Grand Canyon Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Removed from this List after losing to CA Baptist
We are still not over the pummeling that Grand Canyon suffered to California Baptist. I’ve never seen that program play, but it’s hard to put my support beyond the Antelopes after that ass beating. Here’s what was previously written: At 250-1 to win a title on DraftKings around the holidays, the Antelopes were be an intriguing lottery ticket to receive in the Christmas stocking. A blowout loss to California Baptist in early February gave you pause as it put the Antelopes behind Utah Valley in the conference standings. Still, this conference and this team is worth a pick as part of this list.
Grand Canyon has a lot of ingredients you look for when searching for a high ceiling stock. First, they have a winnable conference. You wouldn’t expect them to get an at-large, although it’s actually possible with this team. However, they should be able to handle in-conference competition such as Southern Utah and Abilene Christian in the WAC conference standings. Secondly, they have tournament experience. In fact, they logged a win against another team on this list.
As February began, CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm had them slated as a 13 seed due to play Memphis. That would be the type of winnable game that could propel the antelope into a position as the hunter and not the prey.
Grand Canyon was a 12 seed last year when it got a win. Last but not least, they have a star player who can go into takeover mode. Tyon Grant-Foster averages over 16 points per game (and dropped 22 in last year’s tournament win).
Michigan Basketball Cut from the Top Underdog List
Michigan was cut from this top 5 list after its performance became shaky in late February, but it’s ticket price become more costly. The Wolverines struggled to beat Rutgers at home and then got dominated by Illinois.
This blog had previously published how, “We can’t ignore how Michigan imported Dusty May, the 2023-2024 darling of the tournament leading his Florida Atlantic Owls to the Final 4. Also, they’ve added a 7-footer from that squad plus an additional 7-footer from another Cinderella Yale program.”
Arizona State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Arizona State was pulled from this list after getting into its conference schedule and playing typical unpredictable undisciplined basketball for a Bobby Hurley coached team (I know, counterintuitive, you would think). Previous comments: “This team might be a riskier pick than the aforementioned team with an equal price. The Sun Devils odds could be more volatile than coach Bobby Hurley’s behavior on the sidelines. That’s why they call it gambling. As a newcomer to the Big 12, you’ll have to monitor this team’s regular season performance. The Sun Devils have four guards averaging 9 points or more (three in double digits). As its name would suggest, this team can get hot (or cold) with devilish volatility.
The Sun Devils were 250-1 on DraftKings on December 14, 2024 to win it all.”
Penn State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Penn State got off to a hot start with a court-storming home win against Purdue, but as we continue to watch the Big 10 this season, it seems to be a down year for the overinflated league. Previously wrote: “The Big 10 is going to be a tough conference to predict with traditional powers such as Purdue and Ohio State seemingly in a bit of a program transition. Purdue suffered some upsets early in the season as it adjusts to life without Zack Edey. And Ohio State is a mess. In the meantime, a team like Penn State is jumping off the page with its futures odds sitting at 100-1 in mid-December.”
College Basketball Eye Test 