Although conference championship crowns are being captured this weekend, these are some pivotal college basketball matchups to watch closely as the non-conference schedule winds down.
Michigan State hosts Duke as Sparty Sees Itself as Surprise +1.5 Underdog
I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. You have a darling blue blood who has all of the nation’s highest rated recruits sprinkled with some long tenured program guards who just know how to play basketball. Duke comes straight out of central casting for that one. Enter Tom Izzo’s bunch. They look more like a defensive line group, with perhaps a few black and blue eyes to match. This Motley Cru normally mucks up the action with physical play.
Michigan State finds itself as a surprising 30-1 underdog to win the National Championship at this point, after its already excelled in the non-conference session throughout November.
Give me the Spartans to win outright, but I’ll take the 1 1/2 points if they’re giving it.
Overlooked Mid-major pick of the college basketball weekend
Not many people nationally are talking about the big upset win that Bowling Green scored at K-State this week. It was an impressive performance from the three point line and specifically for senior Sam Towns who dropped 17 points in the first half.
This, despite K-State having one of the nation’s highest paid players in Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty.
I don’t see a let down from Bowling Green here in this spot as they are spotting Utah Valley a casual 1 1/2 points, according to DraftKings line as of one hour before tip nationwide.
Believe it or not, a flurry of injuries in early November are already having an impact on the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Two of the nation’s most recognizable blue bloods have stars on the sidelines. And that will certainly have at least a trickle-down effect on the seeding and possibly even the viability of some bubble teams.
Seth Trimble’s Injury Leaves UNC’s Backcourt Even More Unproven
Days following a big non-conference win against Kansas, North Carolina senior point guard Seth Trimble broke a bone in his forearm during a team workout. The injury needed surgery and Trimble was expected to be out until at least late January. This news comes “on the heels” of another news item that worked against UNC’s backcourt strength. During the offseason, fellow UNC guard Elliot Cadeau announced that he was leaving for Michigan.
One would also assume that this injury also leaves more of the offensive productivity on the shoulders of super freshman Caleb Wilson. The 6-10 former Gatorade Player of the Year from the state of Georgia was already averaging an even 20.0 points per game when this news broke.
McDonald’s All-American Darryn Peterson Nursing Back to Health
Darryn Peterson could be a top pick in the NBA Draft in the spring of 2026, but March Madness fans of that same season will be holding their breath about whether they’ll see him at 100%. Darryn Peterson missed two games in mid-November with a hamstring strain before being listed as “day-to-day” before The Champions Classic on November 18th. Peterson scored 22 and 21 points in the two games he did play. Before we enshrine the Canton, Ohio native into any halls of fame, we’ll have to wait and see how he recovers from this notoriously nagging injury.
Notable Injuries Across the College Basketball Landscape for the 2025-2026 Season
BYU – The Cougars HR department is dealing with a mix of sick calls and personal days. Keba Keita suffered a concussion in a November game against UCONN while at the same time fellow big man Kennard Davis was benched for suspicion of driving drunk.
Houston – These Cougars are known for their depth and toughness, but their injury report is riddled with some nagging injuries for rotation players. Kordell Jefferson and Jacob McFarland were spotted on the injury report early in the season.
Illinois – A pair of 7 plus footer brothers were listed on the injury report recently. They make up an interesting storyline thread of the so-called “Balkan Gang” that has been assembled at Illinois.
Georgetown’s Spark-Plug Center to Miss Significant Time after Hot Start
The Georgetown Hoyas have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early going for the 2025-2026 season. College basketball observers aren’t surprised to see head coach Ed Cooley lead another middle-tier East Coast team to postseason relevance. However, in late November the undefeated Hoyas had to adjust to life without their spark-plug center, Vince Iwuchukwu.
According to TheHoya.com, Iwuchukwu transferred to Georgetown after playing at St. John’s last year: “Prior to attending St. John’s, Iwuchukwu played two years for the University of Southern California (USC). In his first year at USC, Iwuchukwu suffered a cardiac arrest during a July practice and missed half of the season.”
Myles Rice Maryland Tenure Stumbles Out of the Gates
Myles Rice showed flashes of being the best point guard in the country as his Washington State Cougars won a tournament game. But that was two teams ago for the now Maryland Terrapin. After playing for Washington State and Indiana, an ankle injury has been keeping Rice on the sidelines, for now.
Looking for smart betting picks for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups? This article breaks down four key NCAA Tournament games, with against-the-spread predictions for Michigan vs. Auburn, Michigan State vs. Ole Miss, BYU vs. Alabama, and Arizona vs. Duke. See which underdogs have value and which favorites are poised to cover based on matchups that pass the eye test.
It’s funny how reunions of both friends and foes are a constant theme of the college basketball tournament. Caleb Love will, again, be battling with his former in-conference rival, Duke. As you know, Love played for years at UNC where there were some classic clashes with the Blue Devils.
Michigan +8.5 vs. Auburn College Basketball Prediction, Pick Michigan enters this Sweet 16 matchup with one of the biggest frontcourts still standing. Auburn might be the higher seed, but the Wolverines can lean on their size and physicality to dictate the terms of this game. The rebounding edge is where this could tilt. Second-chance points, long possessions—those all benefit Michigan’s style of play. Auburn will try to run, but Michigan has enough discipline and toughness to weather that storm. It’s a tall task to win outright, but getting eight-and-a-half points here looks appealing.
Michigan State -3.5 vs. Ole Miss College Basketball Prediction, Pick It’s March. And that means one thing: Tom Izzo. His teams tend to tighten up their execution just when other squads start fraying. This version of the Spartans is classic Izzo—experienced guards, versatile forwards, and an edge in physical matchups like this one. Ole Miss has impressed with some big wins to get here, but Michigan State’s defense and discipline should win out in the late possessions. Laying 3.5 with Izzo in March? That always looks good to the eye.
BYU +4.5 vs. Alabama College Basketball Prediction, Pick
This is the most intriguing game of the night for me. Alabama is deep and dangerous, no doubt. But BYU is one of the few teams in the country that can go possession-for-possession with them and keep up the scoring. The Cougars have sharpshooters at every position and play with a pace and confidence that won’t shrink against the Crimson Tide’s press and length. In any 5-on-5 set, BYU can match Alabama bucket for bucket. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cougars win this one outright, and grabbing 4.5 points in a shootout like this looks like a lock.
Arizona +8.5 vs. Duke College Basketball Prediction, Pick
This is where things get tricky. Arizona has the physical tools and offensive firepower to give Duke problems—especially in transition. The Wildcats move the ball well and know how to punish mismatches. But let’s be real: Duke is playing with an NBA showcase right now. They’ve got four, maybe five pros on the floor, and they’re all playing like it’s draft week. Arizona should keep this tight with their own versatility, but I’m not sold on them pulling it out late. Still, 8.5 points feels like too many in a game with this much top-end talent. Arizona to cover looks like a confident lean, even if the Blue Devils escape with the W.
The Ticket of Integrity: Saturday’s Smartest College Hoops Plays
A loaded slate of college basketball action means it’s time to lock in a Saturday ticket that blends sharp lines, big matchups, and teams with something to prove. This one’s dubbed The Ticket of Integrity, and there’s a lot to like. Let’s break it down pick by pick.
Florida Gators -9.5
The Gators are rolling at home and have a clear edge in both talent and tempo. They’ve been dominant in Gainesville lately, and their aggressive defense tends to overwhelm lesser opponents. Against a team that struggles to score in bunches, Florida should build a lead and keep the foot on the gas. Expect them to cover with some breathing room.
Baylor Bears +12.5
Baylor isn’t your typical double-digit underdog. Even in tough road environments, their backcourt is experienced and battle-tested. This line feels inflated—possibly reacting to a strong opponent—but Baylor’s ability to control pace and knock down timely threes makes them dangerous. They don’t even have to win, just keep it close—and they’re more than capable of that.
Jeremy Roach isn’t the only point guard who is playing his former team for a chance to advance. Roach plays a Duke program he spent three seasons with, but Tre Donaldson will be playing against his old Auburn team for a shot at the Elite 8. This fascination with revenge games, or at least awkward matchups among exes, is one of several trends fixed as annual traditions in recent years. Click here to read 5 more traditions that we now see on an every year basis.
Kentucky Wildcats +2
Kentucky’s youth is starting to gel at the right time. When they’re locked in, this is one of the most offensively explosive teams in the country. They’ll have the best player on the floor and a coaching edge in late-game scenarios. Getting them as an underdog is rare value—this is a live dog play all the way.
Alabama Crimson Tide -250 (Moneyline)
Alabama at home is a different beast. Their offensive firepower, led by elite guard play, can torch defenses in a hurry. While laying -250 on the moneyline is steep, this is about securing a key piece of the parlay with a team unlikely to lose outright. The Tide roll here—plain and simple.
Ironically, St. Mary’s remains one of my top remaining underdog values in the tournament. Click here to see what teams I had identified as the best 5 future values once the tourney began.
Iowa State Cyclones -5.5
Cyclone Nation is built on suffocating defense and Hilton Magic. Iowa State’s ability to force turnovers and control tempo makes them a nightmare matchup, especially in Ames. With a manageable spread, they’re in a perfect spot to not just win, but win decisively. Trust the home court to deliver once again.
Maryland Terrapins -7.5
The Terps have quietly become one of the more consistent home teams in conference play. Their defense has clamped down lately, and they’ve shown they can string together scoring runs that bury teams quickly. Against a weaker opponent, Maryland should flex early and often. A double-digit win is well within reach.
Arizona Wildcats -3.5
When Arizona is humming, they look like a Final Four team. Their inside-out balance and high tempo can overwhelm opponents who aren’t used to that kind of pace. With tournament positioning on the line, expect a focused effort and a margin that clears the number. The Wildcats know what’s at stake—and they’ll play like it.
The madness has arrived, and with it comes the challenge of picking winners against the spread. With upsets brewing and lines set to tempt bettors, I’m locking in my best plays for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The key? Taking value where the market gives it and, in the case of BYU and Michigan, paying a small premium on the money line to avoid sweating the points.
This game should be an old-fashioned pick ‘em. Both teams have the talent to make a run, and I don’t see a clear favorite here. When that’s the case, I’m gladly taking the 2.5 points with Creighton, knowing they have just as much of a chance to win outright as Louisville.
High Point (+8.5) vs. Purdue
Purdue isn’t a No. 1 seed this year, but they still have the size and experience to be dangerous. That said, High Point is built to cover this spread. Their perimeter shooting and ability to speed up the pace make them a sneaky play at +8.5.
Montana (+16.5) vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin plays a slow, grinding style, which makes covering a big number like 16.5 tough. Montana should be able to keep this game within reach simply by limiting possessions and playing solid defense.
McNeese State (+7.5) vs. Clemson
McNeese is one of the strongest mid-majors in this tournament, and they match up well against Clemson. Their defense and ability to control the tempo make them a live dog here. I’ll take the 7.5 points with confidence.
BYU (Money Line, -142) vs. VCU
Rather than sweating BYU covering the spread, I’m backing them on the money lineat -142. The Cougars have the edge in talent and efficiency, and I trust them to win outright without worrying about VCU sneaking in a late cover.
Georgia (+6.5) vs. Gonzaga
This isn’t the same dominant Gonzaga team we’ve seen in years past. Georgia has the athleticism to keep this one close, and they’re more than capable of hanging within 6.5 points.
Arkansas (+4.5) vs. Kansas
Kansas has been shaky down the stretch, and Arkansas has the athleticism and defensive intensity to make this a dogfight. With Kansas showing inconsistency, I’ll take the Razorbacks and the 4.5 points.
Yale (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M
The Ivy League has a history of bracket-busting, and Yale fits the mold of a team that can make things uncomfortable for a higher seed. Their methodical offense and tough defense should keep this game close, making 7.5 points an easy take.
What makes Yale one of the best overall underdogs in the tournament is their continuity and discipline. The Bulldogs don’t rely on one or two star players; they execute as a unit, making them less susceptible to off-nights from individual performers. They also control tempo exceptionally well, which forces more athletic teams into uncomfortable half-court battles. That’s a nightmare for an opponent like Texas A&M, which thrives in transition. If you’re looking for an underdog with serious long-term value, Yale deserves your attention.
Drake has already proven they can compete with Power Five schools. Missouri has been inconsistent, and this feels like a classic mid-major value pick. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Drake wins outright.
Beyond this game, Drake is one of the best underdog teams in the entire tournament field. The biggest reason? Bennett Stirtz. He’s the smoothest point guard in the country that no one is talking about. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent from the Kansas City area and transfers from Northwest Missouri State, where new head coach Ben McCollum has built a championship-winning culture.
McCollum’s dominance at the Division II level—where he won four national titles and posted an 81.2% career win rate—is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His system is proven, and now he has the resources and talent to execute it on a larger stage. Expect his winning mentality and attention to detail to make Drake one of the most dangerous low seeds in the entire field.
Another spot where I’m avoiding the spread and simply backing Michigan to win outright. UC San Diego is no pushover, but Michigan’s talent gap should be enough to get the job done. I’ll take the money line at -150 rather than sweating a possible tight finish.
UNC Wilmington (+15.5) vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech can score, but they also allow teams to hang around. UNC Wilmington has the offensive tools to keep this from getting out of hand, making 15.5 points too good to pass up.
St. John’s is built to run teams out of the gym, and Omaha doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. When the Red Storm get rolling, they don’t let up, and I expect this one to be over early. Lay the 18.5 and trust the blowout.
Thursday’s Games with Huge Favorites
There are a handful of Thursday games that I’m passing on simply because the spreads are too outrageous to find real value. These include Auburn vs. Alabama State/Saint Francis, Florida vs. Norfolk State, Duke vs. American/Mount St. Mary’s, Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville, and Tennessee vs. Wofford. These matchups feature top-seeded teams against overmatched opponents, where the favorites are more than capable of running away with the game—but covering a massive number in the first round is always a gamble. While a few of these underdogs might hang around early, there’s too much risk in relying on them to keep it close for 40 minutes or expecting the favorites to stay locked in for a full blowout cover. Sometimes, the best play is no play at all.
Final Thoughts
This tournament is full of value plays, and I’m taking a mix of live underdogs and sharp money line bets to maximize profit potential. BYU and Michigan are worth paying a small premium to avoid the spread, while teams like Drake, Yale, and McNeese could all exceed expectations. If you’re looking for underdogs that can make a deep run, check out the full list of the top 5 underdogs for futures bets!
With the NCAA Tournament bracket officially revealed, the first look at each region reveals key storylines, potential upsets, and teams set up for deep runs. Here’s an initial breakdown from CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com author Matty D.
Texas A&M and Michigan got no favors in their draw, facing nightmare high seeds with a potential meeting against Auburn looming. Meanwhile, under-seeded teams like Louisville, Marquette, and Creighton could create chaos in this region. The 11-seed looks dangerous and could roll through the bracket. As for upsets, Bryant has a legitimate chance to beat Michigan State outright, but at the very least, they’re a lock to cover the first half spread.
East Region: Duke on Upset Alert
Duke might be one of the biggest names in the East, but they’re far from safe. Baylor, Arizona, BYU, or Alabama all have the firepower to take them down. The SEC’s representation in this region is interesting, with Vanderbilt sneaking in as a 10-seed and Alabama managing to hold onto a 2-seed. While most lower seeds don’t pose a significant Sweet 16 threat, Liberty has the tools to take out Oregon in the first round.
Midwest Region: Houston’s to Lose, But Upsets Lurk
The Midwest Region looks like Houston’s to lose, but there’s plenty of room for chaos. The winner of the Clemson vs. McNeese matchup could make the most noise in this section of the bracket. Purdue sits as a high seed, but High Point has a real shot at taking them down. Meanwhile, Texas is a team to watch—if they build momentum, they could be a dangerous 11-seed no one wants to face.
West Region: Cinderella Runs and a Potential Border War
The West Region might be the most unpredictable of them all. The winner of Missouri vs. Drake is primed for an Elite Eight run, while a potential “Border War” clash between Kansas and Missouri could add a historic rivalry to the mix. In the first round, Maryland vs. Grand Canyon could be the best game to watch. Meanwhile, Walter Clayton Jr. and Florida is built for a deep run and could find themselves in the Elite Eight, no matter if they’re facing a No. 6, 7, or 11 seed along the way.
First Takeaway
The bracket is set, and early impressions reveal a mix of powerhouse teams, potential Cinderella stories, and major upset possibilities. As always, March Madness promises chaos, and this year’s first look suggests we’re in for another wild ride.
Sometimes you just have to see things for what they are. This is a college basketball season where the cream has been rising to, and is now congealed solid on, the top. The SEC powers and possible eventual champions Auburn, Alabama, Florida and Tennessee all handled their business in decisive fashion. Duke crushed its opponent, which was a desperate UNC team that needed a quality win. Will the dominance continue in semifinal and championship games?
Here are my predictions for a critical Saturday across the college basketball landscape. The team is begin with is the team I would take considering the spread.
Michigan -3.5 vs. Wisconsin College Basketball Prediction, Pick
Its the time of year wihen Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo leads guards who are peaking in their command of the game. Forwards are ripping the rebound away from the opponent. They are hungry, they are hungry, and they are well coached. Combo guard Jase Richardson finds himself climbing up NBA mock draft boards. [Click here to see a full list of NBA sons in NCAAB today].
Tennessee +5.5 vs. Auburn College Basketball Prediction, Pick
This Tennessee Vols team is interesting. Its starting five appears to have all the right parts, but with six losses in this SEC schedule, is there a ceiling for this team right below where the cream rises?
For today’s matchup I see Tennessee having something more to prove than Auburn and probably winning this game. I’d certainly like them getting five points.
Michigan +4.5 vs. Maryland College Basketball Prediction, Pick
Michigan is a highly talented team that looks like it’s still figuring each other out. Turnovers have cost them games. However, you wouldn’t expect that from a team with a lot of transfers but a lot of them with high stakes Madness games under their belts. Today a surging Maryland team will probably beat them outright, but I expect a wire-to-wire game where Michigan plus 4-and-a-half sounds good to me.
VCU -9.5 vs. Loyola Chicago College Basketball Prediction, Pick VCU’s defensive pressure has the potential to suffocate Loyola Chicago in this matchup. The Rams thrive on creating turnovers and converting them into easy buckets, a recipe that should overwhelm a Ramblers team that has struggled against elite defensive units. With their ability to control the glass and dictate the tempo, a double-digit win for VCU looks appealing.
Memphis -8.5 vs. Tulane College Basketball Prediction, Pick Memphis has the length, athleticism, and defensive chops to make life miserable for Tulane. The Tigers’ pressure defense should disrupt the Green Wave’s perimeter shooting while their ability to attack in transition will keep the scoreboard moving.
Alabama +3.5 vs. Florida College Basketball Prediction, Pick Alabama’s offensive attack is built to stretch defenses, and that’s exactly what I see happening against Florida. The Crimson Tide’s ability to hit threes in bunches and force a faster tempo should neutralize the Gators’ size advantage. With the way Alabama can take over games late, getting three-and-a-half points in this spot is something that stands out.
St. John’s -6.5 vs. Creighton College Basketball Prediction, Pick St. John’s thrives in chaotic games, and they should have Creighton playing at an uncomfortable pace. Their defensive pressure will create turnovers, and their depth will allow them to keep the pressure on for 40 minutes. At home, with the crowd at MSG fueling their energy, a win by at least seven looks like a sharp play. With old school New Yorkers crawling all around and inside the Garden, this is an ESPN Classic before it even tips.
Louisville +5.5 vs. Duke College Basketball Prediction, Pick Louisville has shown a scrappy edge lately, and that’s exactly what you need to stay competitive against Duke. The Cardinals’ physicality in the paint and ability to control the tempo should keep them within striking distance all game. Given the way they’ve been competing, getting five-and-a-half points in this spot looks like a clear value play. Two-way star Chucky Hepburn for Louisville has been the agitator and leader on this surging, high energy team. Coach Pat Kelsey has them playing a brand of basketball similar to the up-tempo exhausting pace that had both his Winthrop and College of Charleston underdogs in several tournaments in recent years. I like Louisville to compete with Duke throughout and possibly land a black eye with a giant haymaker here.
March is here, and with it comes the most exciting stretch of the college basketball season. The regular season is winding down, and teams are making their final push before conference tournaments and the madness that follows. With only a handful of games left, the stakes are higher than ever. Some teams are fighting for seeding, others are clawing for a spot in the Big Dance, and a few are just looking to end their seasons on a high note. As we dive into the last weekend of regular season action, it’s time for another round of free picks against the spread—a 20-leg betting adventure featuring some of the most intriguing lines of the weekend.
FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD FOR MARCH 8, 2025
St. John’s University (+3.5) – Can the Red Storm keep it close in a critical matchup?
Kentucky (+5.5) – The Wildcats look to cover against a tough opponent.
Georgia (-5.5) – A favorable line for the Bulldogs at home.
Wisconsin (-11) – The Badgers aim to dominate in their final home game.
Kansas State (+6.5) – The Wildcats fight to stay competitive.
Louisville (-11) – Louisville seeks a big win to cap off the season.
Yale University (-7.5) – The Ivy League race heats up.
Tennessee Volunteers (-16.5) – The Vols hope to cruise to victory.
Wake Forest University (-6.5) – A strong play for the Demon Deacons.
Seton Hall University (+18.5) – The Pirates look to cover a big spread.
University of Alabama (+7.5) – Can Bama pull off the upset or at least keep it close?
Drake University (-7.5) – A strong mid-major play.
Louisiana State University (+6.5) – LSU fights to stay relevant.
University of Arizona (+3.5) – The Wildcats look to outshine expectations.
Clemson University (-17.5) – A big team that thrives on punishing opponents inside, but is this spread too big for them to cover?
University of Florida (-11.5) – Gators look to cover with ease.
UNC(+10.5) – A big spread for a blue-blood program
Texas Tech University (-11.5) – Red Raiders aim to finish strong.
With all these matchups on deck, this weekend is shaping up to be an exciting one. Whether you’re tailing these picks, making your own adjustments, or just enjoying the final weekend of regular-season college hoops, there’s plenty to look forward to before the madness begins. Be sure to follow along with #SuspectSpreadsSaturday for more insights and analysis!
March Madness is almost here, and every college basketball fan wants an edge. Whether you’re tracking injuries, scouting underdogs, or looking for fun destinations to experience the madness firsthand, CollegeBasketballeyetest.com has you covered. Our latest Elite 8 Articles connect you with the most important topics leading up to the tournament.
📲 Your One-Stop Shop for College Hoops
We dive deep into the latest trends, hidden betting opportunities, and must-watch storylines. These articles guide you through every aspect of the tournament:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch – Key players battling injuries could make or break their team’s chances. Stay informed before placing any bets.
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars – Meet the next generation of basketball royalty making waves in college hoops.
🐶 Top 5 Underrated Underdogs – Every year, a few lower-seeded teams make a deep run. These are the squads to keep an eye on.
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions – From historic buzzer-beaters to iconic pep bands, relive the best traditions of the tournament.
📊 Season ATS Standings – Betting against the spread? Check which teams have been the most (and least) profitable all season.
💰 This Week’s Best Picks – Get expert insights on the best value plays leading up to Selection Sunday.
🕵️♂️ Fun Matchups the Committee Could Conspire – Which potential tournament matchups could stir up the most drama? We break down the possibilities.
✈️ Four Fun Destinations to Travel for March Madness – Want to experience the madness in person? Here are four great cities to catch the action live.
With these deep dives, our site connects college basketball fans to the info they crave. Click through to any article and stay ahead of the game this March! 🚀
College Basketball Eye Test 