What teams could make a late season surge in college basketball?
The question in college basketball is not who are the top teams, but instead we are keeping an eye on which teams could move from unranked to tournament sleeper. With an active transfer portal in the offseason, it’s hard to keep track of rosters from year to year. Who is on what team? The truth is that many teams in the top 10 have continuity from the past year, but then the next top 50 teams or so are fluid. There’s a lot of team chemistry that is still building, with head coaches like Kentucky’s Mark Pope a mad scientist experimenting with different lineups in an AAU-like scramble to achieve cohesion in one season.
College basketball’s favorites and underdogs for a 2024-2025 NCAA Championship
The top of the list has remained mostly the same. Duke and Auburn are taking turns as the nation’s number 1 overall ranked team, and therefore the lowest odds to win a title. As this article is being published, each team sits around 6-1 to win it all. Duke and Auburn started the season in that same 10-1 vicinity. They were joined then, and continue to be joined now, by Kansas, Gonzaga, Houston, UCONN, and Iowa State in the second tier of teams in the 10-1 to 25-1 range. Once you start reading below the 25-1 line, things get really dicey. There is a lot of volatility within college basketball’s rankings of say the 20th overall teams and the 60th overall teams. In late November, teams like UNC, Arkansas and Indiana were in the conversation as a third teir of title contenders. However, now those teams would be happy to even make the tournament.
A screenshot of DraftKings odds in late November shows how much has changed
What college basketball teams are underrated right now?
The team that probably headlines a list of surprising, surging, underdog teams, is the Louisville Cardinals. Led by longtime Wisconsin Badger point guard Chucky Hepburn and head coach Pat Kelsey, this team is really starting to put it together. In mid-January, the Cardinals raced away with a win against Syracuse at the former Carrier Dome. Coach Pat Kelsey is known for his track meet style, but even that 85-61 should make you pay attention. This team could race its way into a dangerous 5 or 6 seed before we know it.
Another team worth watching is UCF. Lefty Keyshawn Hall just dropped 40 on Arizona State in their building (including 29 in the first half) to bolster their record to 12-4.
UCF is not the only surprising team in the newly-mixed Big 12. West Virginia is a bubble team and has notched important resumes wins so far including a New Year’s Eve win at Allen Fieldhouse. Former Drake head coach Darian Devries has taken his talents (and his son Tucker) to Morgantown with a balanced athletic team led by top scorer Javon Small. This team features six players averaging at least 4 1/2 rebounds per game. When you watch, you’ll see they play for each other.
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What NCAAB teams to watch for on Saturday, January 18, 2025
UConn’s quest to 3-peat as champions is a testament to their resilience and their ability to adapt in high-pressure situations. After a turbulent holiday season marred by losses to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton, the Huskies looked far from their championship form. However, with the emergence of their star freshman—Liam McNeeley—and the steady leadership of Coach Dan Hurley, UConn has regained its focus. The freshman phenom has electrified the court, leading the team in scoring and providing the spark they needed during a critical midseason stretch. As the Huskies prepare for March Madness, their ability to rebound from adversity and channel their championship pedigree will be key to securing a historic third consecutive title.
Clemson and Wake Forest find themselves in a prime position to take control of an ACC conference that is facing an identity crisis. After Duke’s dominance at the top of the pack, tournament seeds are up for grabs in the league with traditional powers like Syracuse, UNC, and UVA experiencing user error. Clemson has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a strong defense and an emerging backcourt duo. Meanwhile, Wake Forest’s Steve Forbes is poised to make his mark. After several years of building his program, Forbes has assembled a team capable of making noise in the ACC. His emphasis on tough, physical basketball and disciplined play could give Wake Forest the edge it needs to capitalize on a wide-open conference race. The opportunity is there for the taking, but both teams will need to show consistency and poise as the season heats up.
In the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake is under pressure to prove it is the cream of the crop. Currently boasting a solid record and led by their prolific scorer Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging almost 18 points per game, the Bulldogs have been the team to beat in their league. However, questions remain about their ability to dominate when it matters most. With key matchups against rival programs on the horizon, Drake has the chance to solidify its status as a powerhouse in the conference. To do so, they’ll need to continue their balanced approach—combining high-octane offense with a stingy defense that can shut down opponents in crunch time. The Bulldogs’ performance over the next few weeks will be critical not just for their NCAA tournament aspirations but also for cementing their legacy within the Missouri Valley Conference.
Last but not least: Picks for Saturday, January 18th:
This is a teaser pick on FanDuel that took advantage of a 13-leg promotional105% boost. Louisville -10.5, UK 6.5, Clemoson +9.5, UCONN -1.5, Auburn +2.5, Wake Forest +4.5, Cincy -3.5, Xavier +15.5, Tennessee +2.5, Mizzou +3.5, Drake +1.5, A&M -5.5, BYU +6.5.
Whether you’re looking to snag a great price on a college basketball future, or just cramming before the 2025 NCAA Basketball tournament, this list will track the best 5 values.
Of course, this is a subjective opinion.
Best Long-shot odds for the 2024-2025 College Basketball Season
This website and its author Matty D. focuses on what is seen on TV (and occasionally in person), as compared to analytics and top 25 lists.
Odds for the 2024-2025 college basketball season started out with a log jam of great teams in the 9-1 to 16-1 territory. Auburn started the year around 16-1 or 20-1 to win it all, before climbing to the top one or two teams in the national rankings.
Both Auburn and Duke have spent weeks are the overwhelming favorites for odds to win it all, while a pack of second tier teams were separated starting around the 10-1, 12-1 territory afterwards. Some Sportsbooks have even listed a combined ticket of either Duke or Auburn to win a championship in the +120 moneyline territory.
Look for links to buy some futures tickets from ourPropSwap page in the article below! Look for the stock up and the green check mark emojis. 📈✅
A stack of blue bloods cluttered at the top of the futures board to start the season. UCONN’s stock will drop, who will become the new odds-on favorite to win it all? #Duke, #KUBball, Bama, Houston literally vying for this ephemeral spot as we speak… pic.twitter.com/HC6UZlq4QI
With the fluctuating of top teams oscillating somewhere in this 10-1 or 20-1 territory, below are my favorite long-shot odds to win the title at 55-1 or longer. For your information, many teams are vacillating in the 20-1 to 50-1 price range. If you like the teams in that territory, this isn’t your article. But it’s still worth watching. For example, on February 8th Illinois had shifted from a 30-1 odds team to a 55-1 team to win it all. If you love the KU Jayhawks, it’s worth noting they’ve fluctuated between 30-1 and 35-1 quite routinely. If you love them so much, you should invest in that 35-1 number after their next loss. Following a win, they’ve been 25-1 or 30-1 on popular sites such as DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
BYU Odds to Win a Men’s College Basketball Championship, Link to Buy a Ticket
5. Continuity is an important ingredient in this exercise. Most times, when a new coach comes into a program, all players flee to find other opportunities. Not with BYU. Although new head coach Kevin Young has come in, a small core of important contributors have remained with the Cougars. And they’ve now been surrounded with NBA talent such as Russian Egor Demin, who is currently projected as the 18th overall pick in an mock draft on NBA.com. This team is hitting its stride with road wins in the late stages of the regular season against top tier teams such as Iowa State and Arizona. They demolished Kansas. And they get a huge volume of 3pt shots, which can overcome most deficits when they get down (its inevitable if you’re going to play multiple tournament games). This team started February in the 125-1 range, but look at them now!
Drake Bulldogs Perhaps America’s Best Underdogs at 500-1!
4. Two words. Bennett Stirtz. He is the smoothest point guard in America that no one is talking about. Drake has a wealth of Kansas City area kids and transfers from Northwestern Missouri State, where the new head coach has had championship success.
Northwest Missouri State’s championship pedigree under Ben McCollum is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His four national titles and 81.2% career win rate showcase his ability to build and sustain an elite program. McCollum’s proven ability to recruit, develop, and maximize talent will translate well as he steps onto a larger stage. His history of dominating conference play and guiding players to national accolades suggests that his approach—rooted in discipline, strategy, and player development—can immediately impact a Division I program. Expect his winning mentality to create a competitive and successful culture at the next level.
Yale Basketball Intriguing Odds at 1,000-1 to win it all
3. With the exception of center Danny Wolf who transferred to Michigan, this Ivy League power is an intelligent bet to make at 1,000 – 1 because of its returning talent and wisdom. This Yale squad upset Auburn last year in the 13 vs. 4 seed matchup. And with exception to its point guards, this is the same Auburn team that is currently ranked a heavy overall favorite to win the 2025 championship. Let’s get crazy and picture a scenario where, at 250-1 odds, Yale makes the Final Four and squares for a rematch with Auburn in 2025!
Ball handling is at a premium during the NCAA Tournament. And Yale has a healthy contingency of trusted guards. Senior starters Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas return to the 2025 roster with hopes to advance its Cinderella aspirations seen during 2024 March Madness. If you remember, Poulakidas has some dramatic shot making in the closing moments of that 2024 contest to march the Bulldogs back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter (equivalent).
John Poulakidas with a serious game face as he pulls off a career high in the 2024 tourney
As for this current iteration of the Yale Bulldogs in the 2024-2025 regular season, there’s an argument to be made that they’re a better team than last year. Yale basketball has been on a tear, riding a nine-game winning streak to a 16-6 record (9-0 in Ivy League play). The Bulldogs have dominated conference opponents with decisive wins over Harvard, Princeton, and Penn while also pulling out a nail-biting 72-71 victory over Pennsylvania. Their early-season struggles featured close losses to major conference opponents such as Minnesota (59-56) and UTEP (75-74), along with a high-scoring overtime defeat to Delaware (100-94), showcasing their ability to compete in tight matchups. Throughout the season, a core group of players has consistently led the way—John Poulakidas has been the team’s primary scorer, with standout performances like a 32-point outing against Cornell, while Danny Townsend and Yassine Gharram have been dominant on the glass. Bez Mbeng has been a steady facilitator, regularly leading in assists, including a 12-assist showing against Cornell. With their current momentum, Yale has established itself as the team to beat in the Ivy League.
St. Mary’s Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
2. The St. Mary’s Gaels get some respect here as a top choice for futures values. The Gaels roster combines some long-time players with tournament experience, but a splash of new generation players like combo guard Mikey Lewis. He and veteran point guard Augustus Marciulionis make for a formidable pairing in the backcourt. (Yes, Marciulonis is one of many sons of NBA players playing in college basketball right now. See the list here).
The Gaels got out to a great start this season, winning 9 of its first 10 games. As always, its tournament resume will be filtered in large part by whether it can beat Gonzaga. The play the Zags twice in February and won both matchups! They wrapped up the WCC regular season title on February 22nd, a stunning accomplishment for a team that’s barely ever ranked in the AP Top 25 (this season, at least).
At the time of this article being published, the Gaels futures odds had a large variability. On FanDuel, odds to make a Final Four were 45-1. On DraftKings, the same odds were 25-1.
St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga in an uncharacteristically low shooting percentage (including free throws) game for both teams to begin February, when St. Mary’s championship hopes stuck around 80-1.
Texas A&M Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Texas A&M has been on this list since it began the 2024-205 campaign at 80-1, so it will remain grandfathered on this “best of” list despite its price surging to around 30-1 while it sticks in the AP top 10 in mid-February.
The Aggies return 82% of their scoring from the 2023-2024 campaign and surge here to the best overall value to win the tournament. Led by point guard Wade Taylor IV, the Aggies have the depth, the coach, and the culture with its commitment to defense. Their roster is an embarrassment of riches when it comes to 6-7 to 6-9 athletes with a multi-faceted talents. However, they don’t really play many at 6-10 or taller.
Texas A&M started the season at 75-1 or 80-1 to win a title, based on where you’ve seen their odds.
If for some reason you don’t like Texas A&M, but you’re looking for a similarly valued team from the stacked SEC, consider the Missouri Tigers.
CUT LINE 2025:
“Also Receiving Votes” for College Basketball Best Future Value Teams for 2025
Michigan Wolverines Import Cinderella Ingredients to Make for an NCAAB Sleeper
Grand Canyon Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Removed from this List after losing to CA Baptist
We are still not over the pummeling that Grand Canyon suffered to California Baptist. I’ve never seen that program play, but it’s hard to put my support beyond the Antelopes after that ass beating. Here’s what was previously written: At 250-1 to win a title on DraftKings around the holidays, the Antelopes were be an intriguing lottery ticket to receive in the Christmas stocking. A blowout loss to California Baptist in early February gave you pause as it put the Antelopes behind Utah Valley in the conference standings. Still, this conference and this team is worth a pick as part of this list.
Grand Canyon has a lot of ingredients you look for when searching for a high ceiling stock. First, they have a winnable conference. You wouldn’t expect them to get an at-large, although it’s actually possible with this team. However, they should be able to handle in-conference competition such as Southern Utah and Abilene Christian in the WAC conference standings. Secondly, they have tournament experience. In fact, they logged a win against another team on this list.
As February began, CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm had them slated as a 13 seed due to play Memphis. That would be the type of winnable game that could propel the antelope into a position as the hunter and not the prey.
Grand Canyon was a 12 seed last year when it got a win. Last but not least, they have a star player who can go into takeover mode. Tyon Grant-Foster averages over 16 points per game (and dropped 22 in last year’s tournament win).
Michigan Basketball Cut from the Top Underdog List
Michigan was cut from this top 5 list after its performance became shaky in late February, but it’s ticket price become more costly. The Wolverines struggled to beat Rutgers at home and then got dominated by Illinois.
This blog had previously published how, “We can’t ignore how Michigan imported Dusty May, the 2023-2024 darling of the tournament leading his Florida Atlantic Owls to the Final 4. Also, they’ve added a 7-footer from that squad plus an additional 7-footer from another Cinderella Yale program.”
Arizona State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Arizona State was pulled from this list after getting into its conference schedule and playing typical unpredictable undisciplined basketball for a Bobby Hurley coached team (I know, counterintuitive, you would think). Previous comments: “This team might be a riskier pick than the aforementioned team with an equal price. The Sun Devils odds could be more volatile than coach Bobby Hurley’s behavior on the sidelines. That’s why they call it gambling. As a newcomer to the Big 12, you’ll have to monitor this team’s regular season performance. The Sun Devils have four guards averaging 9 points or more (three in double digits). As its name would suggest, this team can get hot (or cold) with devilish volatility.
The Sun Devils were 250-1 on DraftKings on December 14, 2024 to win it all.”
Penn State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship
Penn State got off to a hot start with a court-storming home win against Purdue, but as we continue to watch the Big 10 this season, it seems to be a down year for the overinflated league. Previously wrote: “The Big 10 is going to be a tough conference to predict with traditional powers such as Purdue and Ohio State seemingly in a bit of a program transition. Purdue suffered some upsets early in the season as it adjusts to life without Zack Edey. And Ohio State is a mess. In the meantime, a team like Penn State is jumping off the page with its futures odds sitting at 100-1 in mid-December.”
If you are exploring the futures market or already filling out your bracket, you need to do a status check on these men’s college basketball player injuries first!
🏀🏀Selection Sunday Edition last updated March 15, 2025 🏀🏀
Will Cooper Flagg Play Injured During March Madness for the Duke Blue Devils?
Just as news was announced that Duke superstar freshman would miss the ACC Championship game, Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated were reporting that Flagg would be playing in the NCAA Tournament.
For Duke, it’s not only Cooper Flagg whose injury is stressing out fans. Fellow projected NBA pick and forward Maliq Brown has also been spotted on the sidelines wearing an arm wrap after dislocating his shoulder.
Texas Tech Twin Injuries that Could Ruin a Deep-Run for Red Raiders
Chance McMillian and Darrian Williams each missed Texas Tech’s last game in the Big 12 Tournament, which was also a lop-sided loss to Arizona.
Alabama snagged a 2-seed in the tournament, but wasn’t sure the tournament availability of its big man, Grant Nelson. On conference championship weekend, Alabama.com was reporting that the injury wasn’t structural.
Grant Nelson stretches the floor for a high scoring Alabama attack
Memphis Basketball Injury Status for Star Guard Tyrese Hunter
During the American Conference semifinal, Tyrese Hunter landed awkwardly on another players toes. He found himself on the sidelines in a walking boot for the rest of that contest against Tulane.
Tyrese Hunter gets a foot boot in the semifinal of his conference tournament.
Arkansas Hogs Hope for Big Bonus if their Bubble Berth Gets Buttoned-Up
Once expected to miss the entire season, Arkansas’s guard Boogie Fland could add a major boost to the Razorback’s roster if he rebounds from a hand injury. The setback happened in January, but reports started to surface around Selection Sunday that Fland is returning to practice.
Iowa State lists Nagging Injuries during Championship Week
The Cyclones are another team limping to the finish line of the regular season. Covers.com had both key rotation players Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey listed on the injury report as they both missed the Cyclone’s last game which was a rematch against BYU in the Big 12 Tournament. Lipsey and Gilbert had both played the prior game the day beforehand to Cincinnati, so one would assume they were being treated with care to avoid games on consecutive days.
Gilbert himself tweeted more information late Sunday, answering to speculation:
“Love/appreciate all of your support! i want yall to kno that there is nothing more to the situation. Im battling an injury that just can’t seem to get better while playing on it. But enough about me! We a 3 seed in Milwaukee .. Ik the guys are going to make you all proud!”-KG2Times on Twitter
Tender Wrist for St. John’s Hands-On Defense
Simeon Wilcher of St. John’s injured his hand in the semifinal game in the Big East Tournament, but played in the championship game the following day against Creighton.
Other Injuries from the Archives Only for the 2024-2025 College Basketball Season
<The headlines below are archival references preceding >
Kansas KJ Adams Misses Time, Jayhawks Take Opportunity to Develop Depth
KJ Adams missed some time for the Kansas Jayhawks in late January. The one major loss suffered during that period was an embarrassing late collapse at Allen Fieldhouse against the Houston Cougars. However, this could ultimately be a good thing. This allowed the Jayhawks to develop the depth of their roster. Freshman forward Flory Bidunga flourished despite losing to Houston. He got some rare playing time and showed flashes of greatness in the post. Add him to a front line that includes Hunter Dickinson, who is having a healthy season for the chalky Jayhawks, and KU is suddenly looking like a dangerous blood blood that somehow snuck under the radar.
It is impossible to replace the production that Hunter Dickinson brings to KU Hoops. After a 2023-2024 season that saw him miss some time, Dickinson has played every game for the Jayhawks in November, December and January. His game log (and our eye test) shows consistent rebounding numbers between 8 and 14 per game. Dickinson can also get hot as a scorer, with a high ceiling in the high 20s.
Xavier NBA Prospect Plays after Limping Off Court Against St. John’s Mid-January
Xavier Sophomore Dailyn Swain was averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds when his squad was riding a 3 game winning streak and battling St. John’s in a Big East showdown at MSG. Swain was injured late and limped off the court as Xavier was in the middle of squandering a health lead.
Still, Swain returned right to the lineup in the next game. Instead, Xavier basketball has three other injuries listed on the Covers.com site.
Picks went 7-12 on Saturday, March 2nd bringing the season record to 20-24-1.
Time to prep for final exams! Here's part 1 of 2 for today's #ATS picks. These are games before 4:01 p.m. EST: UF +2, Providence-2.5, #UK -14, Zona -14, #Longhorns -10, Marquette+5.5, South Florida+4.5. ISU-4, Miss St+9.5. #SuspectSpreadsSaturday#GamblingX#GamblingTwitter
These picks finished the day 3-7 for a poor start in March.
Picks went 6-3-2 on February 10th for a season record of 13-12-1.
Anyone else living dangerously with slight road favorites today? My #SuspectSpreadsSaturday picks are: Auburn-2 at UF, UNC-3 at Miami, Ten-1.5 at A&M, UVA-2 at FSU. Houston -5 @ Cincy, Creighton-1.5 at X, then Rutgers+3.5, TCU+8, #MSU-3, #Duke-12.5, Gonzaga+5. #GamblingTwitter⚔️
After a handful of upsets in the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, many high value underdogs remain in the bracket. Here is some analysis and sports betting lines to consider.
BY MATTY D.
Princeton Tigers Remain a Live Dog +10 Against Creighton
It might seem counterintuitive, but Creighton has struggled at times this season to defend the post, and Princeton is rolling right now as it exposes the paint against other bigger teams. It will be interesting to watch whether 6-8 Ivy League Player of the Year Tosan Evbouomwan gets matched up against Ryan Kalkbrenner, or some of the smaller but very skilled defensive wings for the Creighton Bluejays. Either way, taking 10 points with Princeton feels like the best value based on what we’ve seen.
Arkansas Razorbacks +4 Against UCONN is a Slam Dunk
This is where we start to follow the trail that led us here. What teams have these teams beaten to get here? Arkansas handled Illinois, another evenly ranked team. Then, they knocked off the #1 seeded defending champion Kansas Jayhawks in dramatic fashion mounting a comeback in the final minutes.
On the flip side, the UCONN Huskies beat an Iona team that had its coach clearly on the way out (see Rick Pitino). Then, they beat a St. Mary’s team that was probably the most vulnerable top 25 team in terms of its propensity for serious droughts on offense.
Taking Texas on the moneyline against Xavier
If you haven’t caught the trend, I don’t think that more than one team from the Big East will make the Elite 8. Texas put out the fire on a red hot Penn State team and looked superior doing it. Xavier struggled at times against 14 seed Kennesaw State and then again against 11 seed Pittsburgh on its third game in five days. Sure, Xavier won by several possessions, but if you watched the game you noticed that Pitt hung around. Senior (Graduate) starting guard Souley Boum struggled on offense and was held scoreless for a majority of the game. I think you’re starting to see the liabilities for Xavier and its lack of depth with Zach Freemantle unavailable for the tournament. It’s awesome to see coach Sean Miller back on the basketball sidelines, but I just don’t see him in the Elite 8.
Track injury updates, get under-the-radar analysis, and learn some fun facts about this year’s 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Links our top 5 trending articles are listed below.
BY MATTY D.
Filling out this year’s bracket was like putting my hand to a ouija board. I would have never expected having throwback teams like Memphis, Kentucky and Michigan State in this year’s Sweet Sixteen within one region. Alas, here is how my bracket revealed itself:
College basketball blogger Matt DeSarle (ie. yours truly) will return to Las Vegas for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic to track trends and hunt value during this March Madness. Follow on YouTube for sports betting tips and fun human interest stories. He will also be updating these articles to keep you up-to-date on these top 5 storylines.
It’s often said that “this year’s tournament will be unlike any other.” While that is always true, this March it will especially be the case. The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will feature a high number of mid-major teams and a wide spectrum of ages. This tournament will feature kids who reclassified in high school to start playing college hoops at 17 years-old. Conversely, this will be one of the only tournaments you’ll ever see so many 24 and 25 year-olds (not to mention 26-year-old DeAndre Williams).
March Madness 2023 is underway and this article is tracking the most important injuries to monitor. That includes watching how teams are adjusting after losing stars. Don’t fill out your 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket before checking on the health statuses here!
BY MATTY D.
The new headline is to track the status of a starting guard for the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship. Marcus Sasser missed the AAC Championship game against Memphis and is questionable going forward.
Unfortunately, this update also comes as one of the best players on one of the best teams just tore his ACL. Zakai Zeigler, the 5-9 spark plug for the Vols offense and defense just suffered the injury on the eve of March. Despite the cruel turn of events for this surging sophomore, he took to Twitter with a very positive message:
It’s all apart of God’s plan. Minor setback for a Major comeback🙏🏽🧡
Aside from Zeigler’s major injury, there are many student athletes still in recovery mode. Here are the top 11 injuries to monitor while those players are nursing different ailments. See more of a summary of how this affects each team in alphabetical order below.
Top Injuries to Monitor across College Basketball
To recap, here is a top 10 list (plus some) of the most important injuries to monitor:
14. Jett Howard – Michigan guard 13. Chucky Hepburn – Wisconsin guard 12. Moussa Cisse – Oklahoma State center 11. Anthony Anderson III – Oklahoma State guard – – – – – – – – – PROJECTED CUT – – – – – – – – – 11. Nijel Pack – Miami guard 10. Efton Reid III – Gonzaga center 9. Federiko Federiko – Pittsburgh center 8. Kendrick Davis – Memphis guard 7. Timmy Allen – Texas forward 6. Ben Vander Plas – Virginia forward 5. Zach Freemantle – Xavier forward 4. Keyonte George – Baylor guard 3. *Jaylen Clark – UCLA wing 2. *Zakai Zeigler – Tennessee guard 1. Marcus Sasser – Houston guard
In the case of 2 of the top 3 injuries here, there is no chance for a recovery. Both Jaylen Clark and Zakai Zeigler are *out for the remainder of the season. In these and similar cases, we are monitoring the team adjustments instead of the personal recoveries.
Players recently returned from injury add to resurgent college basketball teams
It’s not all bad news on this list. In fact, there’s a strong handful of players who are recently back into lineups and taking their teams to the next level. Nick Smith Jr. is adding a scoring punch to an Arkansas lineup that suddenly has found itself on the bubble. Justin Moore has a month under his belt after a torn Achilles. His Villanova Wildcats looks like Nova once again. And Dariq Whitehead has been back for Duke with the Blue Devils finally safely off the bubble.
See more about each team affected in alphabetical order below.
Arkansas and its future NBA lottery pick Nick Smith Jr. navigates knee “management”
Nick Smith Jr. returned to action on February 11th after missing nearly two months with “knee management.” He played just 21 game minutes in his first pair of games, but then averaged around 35 minutes after that. In fact, he played all 40 minutes in a close matchup against the Alabama Roll Tide in a game the Razorbacks were fighting from behind for most of. He dropped 24 points and grabbed 6 points in that game. It looks like Nick Smith Jr. is back to his NBA prospect self, but check his injury status pregame during March Madness just in case!
Keyonte George missed a game at Oklahoma State in late February, but it almost didn’t matter. The freshman shooting guard has glided right into a productive role with Baylor this season. But in his absence, the Baylor Bears just reloaded again. This team is already accustomed to losing one or two first round picks to the NBA every year. Now, it’s also been in the unfortunate habit of having injured players miss some of all of the season. Baylor has been in postseason position and jockeying for the Big 12 title this season, despite not having veteran forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. Now he is back.
In that Oklahoma State game that George missed with an ankle sprain, seldom used guard Dale Bonner filed right in with 15 points in 32 minutes. He had rarely played in the previous few games. Baylor coach Scott Drew has an abundance of riches. This team should be feared as a top pick to win it all.
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images
Duke started its season without the services of All-American freshmen, center Dereck Lively II and small forward Dariq Whitehead. In late February, Duke had a completely clean injury report according to Covers.com. Still, double-check these youthful Dukies for any bumps and bruises.
Gonzaga monitors the injury status of its rim protector off the bench Efton Reid III
If the Gonzaga Bulldogs are going to make a deep run in the tournament, they need to stand tall at the rim. After 7-foot something Chet Holmgren left for the NBA, the Bulldogs were a little thin on the inside. They added Efton Reid III, a big man from LSU. When Reid popped up on the injury report in late February, it was a concern for Gonzaga’s overall depth.
Reid has returned to action in March, but has played sparingly. He logged only four minutes in the WCC Championship game against St. Mary’s.
Memphis monitors a motley crew of injuries to its ball-handlers
Point guard Keynote Kennedy punched a wall after a loss to Houston and effectively sidelined himself for the rest of the regular season. He was the Tigers third leading scorer. Its top scorer and senior transfer Kendrick Davis also missed that game with a bad ankle. Davis averages around 21 points a game. Both of these teams are worth monitoring as Memphis will likely be an underdog in both its own conference tournament and if/when it makes the NCAA Basketball Tournament. They’ll need all hands on deck (and not against walls).
Miami misses Nijel Pack in a game they’d like to have back
Florida State stormed back to beat the Miami Hurricanes in a game their tournament seeding will likely want back. Florida State isn’t good this year. However, it’s important to note that K-State transfer guard Nijel Pack missed that game for Miami with a lower body injury. Watch this injury closely so that Miami doesn’t suffer anymore surprises.
Michigan plays it safe with Jett Howard’s injury, looks to get on right side of bubble
The coach’s son Jett Howard missed the Wisconsin game with an ankle injury in late February where the Wolverines nearly lost. One more loss in a close game like this might cost Michigan its tournament berth. Watch Jett Howard’s status. He is averaging 14.4 points per game for a Michigan team that can struggle at times to score.
(Missouri’s Kobe Brown out with an illness February 26th – should be short term).
Oklahoma State tournament chances on thin ice while starting center and guards out
It’s never good to have your starting center and starting guard out while you’re trying to play your way off the bubble. But that’s exactly the position that Oklahoma State finds itself in. Moussa Cisse and Anthony Anderson III are both missing time as we roll into March. Anderson’s injury might be more long-standing with him dealing with a wrist injury.
Pittsburgh wins play-in-game despite not having a center in the starting lineup
The nation learned who Federiko Federiko was on Tuesday night as the tournament tipped off with its play-in games. The Panthers center was listed as a game time decision, according to Pittsburgh Sports now, but he ended up sitting out the game while nursing a knee injury. The nation watched as the Panthers battled to win a tight one point game against Mississippi State. Jorge Diaz Graham did a nice job as a substitute center, stretching Miss St. center Tolu Smith outside of the paint. The smaller lineup worked out for Pittsburgh.
(TCU’s Eddie Lampkin Jr. out with undisclosed injury late February).
Tennessee suffers major blow with Zakai Ziegler’s injury
Ziegler’s injury leaves the Vols very thin at point guard. The Volunteers just lost Kennedy Chandler to the NBA (and Memphis Grizzlies) after a one-and-done campaign. Shooting guard Santiago Vescovi is expected to do more ball handling. Tyreke Key is also expected to get more minutes.
Wisconsin watches Chucky Hepburn’s injury status
Wisconsin’s starting point guard Chucky Hepburn missed some minutes against Michigan in a critical game to finish February. He remains on the injury report with a lower body injury. Hepburn played the last few games for the Badgers, including a first round win against Bradley in the NIT Tournament.
Xavier’s Zach Freemantle ruled out for remainder of the season
For a second straight season, Zach Freemantle’s foot is finding itself on the injury report at the most inconvenient time. As March began, the power forward was ruled out for the remainder of the season. This leaves a gaping hole in the front-court of Sean Miller’s core unit. Fellow big man Jack Nunge will now need to continue (Freemantle has been out for weeks) picking up the slack on the boards and with help defense. The power forward was enjoying the fruits of a veteran team playing winning basketball with Sean Miller’s return to the Musketeers sidelines. Xavier is a 3 seed and will play against upset-minded 14 seed Kennesaw State. Kennesaw State has surged onto the national radar with an impressive program turnaround against coach Amir Abdur-Rahim.
UCLA loses super athletic wing Jaylen Clark for the season in major postseason loss
UCLA has a major problem on its hands. Despite how consistent guards Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have been over their careers, the Bruins rely on some offense you can’t draw up. This is where Jaylen Clark has come into play. He is a great slasher, finisher, and just the type of super athletic wing who you don’t have to feed the ball to in order to get productivity. His athleticism finds a way. Clark had more than doubled his offensive productivity from a season ago and averaged 16 points a game. He gave Campbell and Jaquez a great third option in the early or late stages of a shot clock. And Clark is a great defender. Now, UCLA will head into the tournament without their most athletic wing. This is a major problem.
Bolch points to how UCLA went 6-1 while freshman guard Amari Bailey was out for a month with a foot injury. This is an apples to oranges comparison to the superior athleticism that Jaylen Clark brings on the floor. Bailey is a primary ball-handler, which UCLA already has in full supply with Tyger Campbell. Instead of thinking about Bailey as a replacement, freshman Dylan Andrews is more of the prototypical wing who Bruins fans need to look forward to stepping up.
Avoiding any chance of being upset is a good thing. That’s especially true in college basketball. On a weekend when the Super Bowl is expected to feature a tight matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles, college basketball’s conference standings are tight as well. Many important conference tournaments in college hoops have bye games for its top teams. Here’s a glance at college basketball games for Super Bowl weekend, with an eye on what teams can capture those all-important byes.
Mountain West Offers High Ceiling and High Seeding
The team that climbs to the top of the Mountain West Conference this season will reach certain heights in the college hoops landscape. The Mountain West is the fourth best conference in college basketball this year. Therefore, the conference winner will get regional preference and a top 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There will also be a pack of hikers from the league who have a high ceiling. Conversely, someone in the middle of the pack will slip and suffer a dramatic fall. Right now San Diego State is the only team from the conference that is technically “ranked” in the Top 25. The veteran team is again loaded with experienced players who can contribute 6 points or more.
The team that captures the top of the Mountain West will capture a high seed.
The second pack of teams from the conference is a force to be reckoned with. CBS Sports bracketology expert Jerry Palm has Nevada, Boise State and New Mexico all projected in the tournament on Super Bowl weekend. New Mexico just took a bad loss to Air Force on Friday night. The Lobos could be the character that slips from the rocks and falls out of the picture.
Two teams that could back-fill their position are Utah State and UNLV. Today they stand in the NET rankings at 33 and 82 respectively. UNLV is a current victim of how daunting this Mountain West conference actually is. However, when you watch them play, you recognize the high ceiling. The Runnin’ Rebels November matchup against another underrated conference team in Dayton was a good barameter for UNLVs’ potential. Former Oklahoma Sooner transfer Elijah Harmless led the way with 24 points. The Rebels have a fleet of skilled guards and a do-the-dirty work center in David Muoka who can compete with anyone at the rim.
On Saturday, UNLV gets an enormous chance to boost its tournament resume with a game at San Diego State. It’s unlikely that UNLV wins. It’s also unlikely that UNLV makes the NCAA tournament as an at large team. However, this game is a good litmus test to watch whether UNLV has its A game ready for the Mountain West Tournament. With six conference games remaining, it’s also unlikely that UNLV grabs a first round bye in the Mountain West Tournament. The Rebels were one slot short of that accomplishment last season. Right now they are four games behind Utah State in the loss column with six games left.
Big brands re-emerge in the Big East
There has been a bit of a Renaissance in the Big East. With exception of Georgetown, the big brand names remain relevant late in the season. College basketball fans were treated to a UCONN season where the Huskies were an AP Top 5 team. Sean Miller has returned to Xavier and immediately made them an AP Top 25 team. Although they are not a tournament team, even St. John’s is playing relevant basketball and perhaps looking at an NIT or a CBI bid.
However, the biggest mover right now is the Villanova Wildcats. This statement has caused a storm of debate on our Twitter page. However, with veteran guard Justin Moore back from an achilles tear in last year’s Big Dance, Villanova looks much better than its record shows.
Join the Villanova debate by following CBBEyeTest on Twitter.
The tournament committee is stubborn about a lot of things. One thing they have historically actually shown common sense about is judging a team that had a major injury. With Justin Moore back today from Achilles injury, Villanova is back in the tournament hunt as well.
Villanova was leading Creighton in Omaha on the game Justin Moore returned. They lost that one, but rebounded by beating up on Depaul. With an 11-13 record, they now play Seton Hall, Butler, Providence and Xavier next. That’s four winnable games and two Quad 1 opportunities. If they win five straight in this stretch, they will be 15-13 with an opportunity to avenge their loss against Crieghton to go to 16-13. Let’s assume they lose one more of their remaining Big East schedule. They would head into Madison Square Garden as a dangerous, experienced, battle-tested, ball security advocate in the Big East Tournament at 18-14. I don’t see the tournament committee keeping this group out of the Big Dance if they win 2 of 3 in the Big East Tournament in that scenario finishing at 20-15. That’s me. Or they could just win the Big East tournament.
The scrum of college basketball teams to grab the loose bids intensifies on Super Bowl weekend.
These college basketball teams are all high value picks as longshots to win it all.
BY MATTY D.
This has been a volatile year for college basketball’s top 25. After the long-standing favorite of Houston, numbers 2 through 10 have been a game of musical chairs. The Houston Cougars currently sit at 6-1 odds to win it all.
Best longshot odds to win the 2023 NCAA Basketball Championship
Meanwhile, college basketball fans have been treated to some real surprising performances from mid-major teams this season. This article outlines my favorite value picks for current odds to win it all. Two of those teams have improved from an off-the-radar mid-major to a staple of the AP Top 25. Only one of my 5 value teams from the start of the season have stuck on this top 5 list.
#5 Florida Atlantic 175-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
The Owls have come out of nowhere, so if you’re scratching your head, welcome to my list. The Owls haunted the Florida Gators and their high hopes for a tournament caliber year by dominating them in Gainesville. That was the start. Florida Atlantic continued their momentum into conference play where they’ve beaten tournament-relevant programs like UAB, North Texas and Western Kentucky. They have repeatedly been ranked in weekly polls in the 21-25 territory. Yet, they’re somehow still 175-1 to win it all. That, according to FanDuel Sportsbook app on February 15th.
The Owls can knock down the three. FAU’s bench can score — its two top scorers come off the bench. They rank among the top 10 teams in the nation in scoring and have a perimeter surrounded with combo guards who can create their own shots. Take your shot by considering this heavy underdog for at least a Final Four ticket. The Conference USA teams are always dangerous in March Madness (think Middle Tennessee and North Texas).
#4 Arkansas Razorbacks 50-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
This is the only SEC team to currently make the list, but there could have been many others. Missouri, Auburn, and Texas A&M are also very intriguing. Arkansas makes the list because tits resume is 95% stamped for approval and a tournament team. Those other teams may be in the 65-75% range. At 50-1, Arkansas carries the flag for a conference that is still largely underrated by the futures market. If you are a futures shopper you should consider investing in the conference itself to win it all. You might even find a 4-1 or 5-1 steal and suddenly be invested in all the high level teams — Tennessee, Alabama, the list goes on.
As for Arkansas, the roster has turned over completely for 2022-2023, but the identity remains the same. Late season news for Arkansas has been a mixed bag. They took some questionable losses like losing to Vanderbilt in mid-January and losing to Mississippi State at home mid-February. The good news is that super hyped NBA prospect combo guard Nick Smith Jr. has recently returned from his knee injury. Smith Jr. is slowing gaining more minutes and productivity as March approaches.
Smith Jr. and fellow freshman Anthony Black were especially gelling in an SEC tournament game against Auburn where they scored 14 and 19 respectively with great efficiency. This team is hitting its stride as the tournament nears.
The Hogs defend hard, play fast, and challenge at the rim on both ends. This is a better team on the defensive end, ranking in kenpom’s top 20. The Mitchell brothers offer some size and athleticism down low. Jordan Walsh is really fun to watch with his Dennis Rodman-like tenacity. The team is loaded with McDonald’s All-Americans (three current, one more committed). If you are reading mock NBA draft boards and like this team because of prospect Nick Smith Jr., don’t. Smith has not been a consistent piece of this lineup. That said, if he emerges into the rotation during the start of the tournament itself, it might be time to jump on the bandwagon. That might be a guy, and this might be a team, looking to improve its stock greatly on the national stage.
#3 College of Charleston 400-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
This one honestly made me do a double-take. I can’t believe College of Charleston is being disrespected in this way. If 400-1 is too rich for your blood (or too thrifty in this case), then you should at least consider CoC at 90-1 or 100-1 to make a magical run to a Final Four. This is a tournament team. The Cougars have cracked the AP Top 25 a few weeks ago and have stuck there in the 18-25 range. Even though they play in a mid-major conference, they may not need to win their conference tournament championship. However, they did win their conference tournament and earned a spot as a 3 loss team.
Two losses in conference took this team from 300-1 to 400-1. That includes a four point loss to Hofstra and a one point loss to Drexel. Otherwise, the Cougars only loss was against UNC early in the season. The Cougars struggled with Towson which has a great scorer in Nicholas Timberlake. The way that College of Charleston beat Towson in comeback fashion in early March and again during the Colonial Athletic Tournament shows that the Cougars can take a punch. They were the hunted all season long within their conference.
This team is especially a case where you need to shop around as a futures investor. The odds for this team are all over the place. On March 10th, three major sportsbooks had them listed with large discrepancies. Ceasars had them listed as 500-1 underdogs to win it all, while FanDuel had them at 400-1 and MGM at 250-1 (according to VegasInsider.com).
Anyone who buys this ticket should also be rooting for Florida Atlantic to win its conference tournament. Like the Owls, the Cougars don’t want to put this decision in the tournament committee hands. And if both Florida Atlantic and College of Charleston get upset in their own conference tournament, it’s highly unlikely that both get a tournament bid. Although, it would be really cool if they played each other in a play-in game! I would love that more than seeing some middle-of-the-pack power six teams play each other.
This was the conference standings for CoC in mid-February showing a dominant record.
C of C has been totally running their league opponents out of the gym. They are consistently winning by 15, 20, 25 points or more. The are undefeated in the Colonial Athletic Conference and only have one loss to their name at 21-1. It has wins over Kent State, Virginia Tech, Davidson and Colorado State. Its only loss is to UNC. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has them slotted as a 10 seed. Even if they lose one or two games in their conference, you could easily see this squad as a play-in-game 11 or 12 seed. Head coach Pat Kelsey has come over from Winthrop where he has brought his renowned conditioning and winning ways. The Cougars are deep, tall, can shoot, sprint to the ball, and play a ton of guys. A recent box score showed Kelsey playing 13 people. I didn’t even know that was possible. In that game, 10 players scored and 10 players played 9 minutes or more. Kelsey gives his guys no excuses not to run to a loose ball, hustle to a rebound, and get out in transition. The makeup of this team is perfectly suited for a tournament situation. If a 6 or 7 seed overlooks them, they’ll at least get the attention of the 2 or 3 seed in the next matchup.
#2: San Diego State 75-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
Could this be the year that the Mountain West actually clicks? If it does, this will be the team to do it. However, there is reason for suspicion. The Mountain West went winless in last season’s tournament. This year, there is a lot of noise about the conference being fourth, fifth, or sixth best in the country. They compare favorably to the ACC, which will likely get seven teams in the tournament. With so many teams with a NET ranking in the 30s or 40s, you’d assume that the Mountain West would also get multiple bids. New Mexico is fading down the stretch of the season. Nevada and Boise State are also projected tournament teams at this point. However, it’s the Aztecs that have the experienced nucleus and chronically under-the-radar culture.
Longtime Steve Fisher assistant, and now longtime San Diego State coach, Brian Dutcher has his Aztecs playing great defense as always. The Aztecs actually rank 27th on Kenpom.com in defensive efficiency, which is perhaps lower than you’d expect from the standard set there.
If you watch college basketball, the cast of characters at San Diego State is comically familiar. It seems guys like Matt Bradley and Nathan Mensah have been there for a lifetime. And they’ve achieved so much. The starting lineup features four seniors and one junior. Bradley has reached a new level with his offensive production. He is averaging 17 points in the month of February. I would hate to have a futures ticket on a young team like Arkansas and have to face a veteran bunch like San Diego State in the tournament. ESPN college basketball Seth Greenberg talks about being “invested in winning.” By that standard, it’s time that the Aztecs commitment pays dividends. The team’s Twitter hashtag is even “The Time is Now.” If you have any belief that the Mountain West will rebound and represent itself well in the tournament this season, San Diego State is a no-brainer.
#1 Drake Bulldogs 300-1 to win a College Basketball Championship
#1 Drake Bulldogs 300-1 to win a College Basketball Championship
If it weren’t for the pandemic, this team might be a household name as an underdog similar to how Oral Roberts will be perceived coming into the 2023 March Madness. Drake is big, experienced, and boast the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year. In a conference that recently sent Cinderella Loyola Chicago to the Final 4, no one should be sleeping on the Bulldogs. Point guard Roman Penn is a powerful asset as an ambidextrous and wise veteran player. The Siena transfer had battled injuries throughout his collegiate career but is looking poised to lead a deep run in another tournament. Drake ran Bradley out of the gym in its conference championship game in St. Louis. Bradley was considered to be a good team. You don’t have to worry about this mid-major team not having the size to battle against a power 5 school. Darnell Brodie is built like a right guard but can guard any center nationwide. Brodie also has a sweet stroke from the charity stripe, just saying. Book the Bulldogs, Owls or Cougars in your Sweet 16 if the bracket allows for it and make for an exciting March Madness!
Removed from List: Creighton Bluejays 30-1 to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
***Creighton has been removed from this list, as the cutoff for how to define an “underdog” has been drawn at the 60-1 threshold. Still, if you might like the argument below to buy in at 30-1.
Creighton’s futures tickets have been selling at a discount since a stretch when they lost 5 of 6 to start December. After then going on an 8 game winning streak, they just lost on Valentine’s Day to another ranked team at Providence. But when you look closer at the details, you see that this is still a Final Four caliber team. Creighton started the season ranked in the Top 10 of the AP Top 25. Futures for Creighton to win a NCAA Basketball Championship started around 35-1, dropped as low as 80-1, and have now regained strength around 35-1 again. After the Providence loss, the odds stuck at 25-1. If you are shopping, you could likely still grab this team at 30-1 or even 35-1.
Creighton has regained its footing with a solid performance within the Big East. However, its non-conference wins early in the season might be its saving grace. The Big 12 and SEC get a lot of hype as the best conferences in basketball. Well, Creighton beat Texas Tech (Big 12) and Arkansas (SEC) right before that losing streak started. And, the losing streak could certainly be attributed to losing their starting center, Ryan Kalkbrenner, to injury. Once Kalkbrenner returned, Creighton went 4-2 immediately. The loses they suffered during that rocky stretch included respectable losses to probably tournament teams. They lost to Arizona, BYU, Texas and Marquette in that stretch. This gives you an idea of how aggressively this team was scheduling. They had high hopes since challenging eventual champion Kansas in last year’s NCAA tournament.
Creighton was 65-1 to win it all on the FanDuel Sportsbook app on January 25, 2023.
Creighton’s athletic wings Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander set the tone for a stellar defensive squad. South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman is a strong guard who can score at all three levels. He was arguably the most sought after transfer in America this offseason. And sophomore point guard Ryan Nembhard is a poised point guard who can control and take over games. Despite the turbulence, Creighton is still projected as we publish this as a tournament team. You can buy them at half off their 30-1 starting price when the season started.
When it comes to college basketball futures for March Madness 2023, Creighton lives in the same neighborhood as some blue blood programs. Duke, UNC, Creighton and Indiana all have roughly 50-1 odds to win a championship as February 2023 began. A recent poll by College Basketball Eye Test on Twitter showed that Indiana is the most popular pick among these values.
Which #NCAAB long shot is the best value right now?
Find free picks against the spread every Saturday for college basketball here on collegebasketballeytest.com. The theme of this article is to find incorrect odds, otherwise known as “suspect spreads.” Picks are tweeted before Saturday’s tip.
College basketball eye test’s record against the spread stands at 40-46 heading into the start of March.
Because Saturdays are really the most exciting national showcase of college basketball action, we focus on this day to have some fun.
This website and its author Matty D. took a 56% winning percentage from the 2021-2022 season into the 2022-2023 campaign. Click here to see a breakdown of last year’s picks. An archive of every pick from the 2022-2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Season is recorded below.
College Basketball Odds and Picks Against the Odds for Today
If sports betting isn’t your thing, the odds are still a great measuring tool to debate the best teams. Join the college hoops conversation by following us here on Twitter.
The final picks for February went 8-3 to put an unlucky streak to an end.
NCAAB Record Against the Odds for 2022-2023 by College Basketball Eye Test
Below is a log of some of the tweets from this season with picks, good and bad.
After starting with a poor record of 9-17 to start the season, the record ATS improved to 15-21 and then 18-22 after consecutive winning weeks. That record improved to 23-25 after going 5-3 during the SEC Big 12 Challenge. However, the picks had a difficult February. Picks took a nose-dive during a 1-4 showing on the first Saturday of February. The site then went back-to back losing weeks in mid February (a disgusting 2-7 performance on the heels of a 6-7 showing).
On January 7th, the picks were particularly bad. The one saving grace being that 5 of 6 favorites taken to cover at least hit ML. Kansas State the call of the day yet another +6 dog to win outright. Picking +6 underdogs to win outright has randomly been a strength of this website.
It’s the first #SuspectSpreadSaturday for me and I’m dipping my toe in the water. I’m loving Wake Forest -2 Arizona -2 Auburn -1 Arkansas -4.5. Those are all suspect spreads based on the small samples size I’ve seen so far. You?
College Basketball Eye Test 