As March basketball fever builds in New York, fans of St. John’s basketball, the New York Knicks, and passionate sports bettors alike are beginning to dream about a historic championship run. With Madison Square Garden once again at the center of the story, optimism is fueled by the resurgence of the Red Storm under Rick Pitino and the Knicks’ playoff push led by Jalen Brunson. This essay explores the emotional pull of New York hoops nostalgia, the rising championship odds, and the excitement surrounding a potential Knicks–St. John’s title parlay.
BY MATTY D.
An Essay that Imagines a St. John’s and New York Knicks Championship Year
There’s something magical about both St. John’s and the New York Knicks being relevant as spring begins.
The snow thaws…and the salt needs to be swept so that we can get these black sneakers in some pavement!
Growing up in New York State during the 1990s, there were the Johnny’s Felipe Lopez years aligned with Patrick Ewing’s crew.
I’m still not over how my Knicks didn’t pick Ron Artest in the draft.
The Emerald City. “The World’s Most Famous Arena.”
Now, as Rick Pitino of all people is gracing the sidelines in style for St John’s, this storyline has some major juice.
This next chapter features a New York Knicks team led by Jalen Brunson and a cast of players that continues to show signs of its depth.
This version of the Red Storm, also runs deep and is also led by the blue collar energy of Zuby. True fans are already looking at what pick the Knicks have in the draft so that we can get this guy.
Madison Square Garden, the site of some of the most memorable games in St John’s basketball history… could it also be this season’s home for the NBA Finals for its full time tenant?
An MSG parlay of a Knicks St John’s combo future – both to win a championship – started at 98–1 at the end of February. Now this joint ticket is 62-1.
Stay tuned to collegebasketballeyetest.com where this ticket might be available for sale, soon.
Collegebasketballeyetest.com blogger Matty D. started March Madness on a roll with his picks against the spread going 12-2 on Thursday, and here he shares his picks for Friday.
Sports Betting Picks for Friday in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament
BY MATTY D.
Will Underdogs Continue to Cover on Friday after Competing All Day Thursday?
Every year I remind fellow college basketball fans how good underdogs always cover the first half spread. That’s one of the top 5 rules to always follow when betting March Madness on a budget.
Please watch and subscribe to this video on our YouTube channel!
On Thursday, high seed underdogs Howard, McNeese, Penn, High Point, and Siena all covered the first half spreads. For Friday, I can see much of the same thing happening.
Predicted Teams to Cover First Half, Game Spread on Friday: Furman +20.5 California Baptist +14.5 Queens +24.5 Akron +7.5 Tennessee State +24.5
This photo was tweeted shortly after Selection Sunday, showing all of the against the spread picks for Thursday and Friday. Thursday is highlighted in blue and Friday yellow.
Does the Big 12’s Dominance Get Bigger and More Obvious After Friday?
With Duke, and even at times Michigan, struggling against high seeds in the first game of the NCAA Tournament, Big 12 teams like Houston, Iowa State, and Arizona have a chance to show us the separation their conference commands this season. With no clear obvious national contender registering a wire to wire thoroughbred sprint to victory on Thursday, the futures values tickets bought on Wednesday look much better. Having a High Point team beat Wisconsin outright doesn’t hurt. High Point will now play Arkansas, one of my top 10 futures values going into this tournament at 50-1 to win it all.
Click here to read my top 10 Cinderella Super Sleeper teams to Win March Madness:
Not listed in that article is my actual favorite future bet right now, which is not a “Cinderella” pick. Buying into the Big 12 at 2-1 to win a national championship feels like a steal considering how Arizona and Iowa State have manageable paths to the Final Four. TCU even won on Thursday, giving that futures weaponry another bullet.
Thanks for reading along and good luck in the tournament!
After a historic college basketball regular season filled with perhaps the most talented freshman class ever, here are picks against the spread for each region of March Madness for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
BY MATTY D.
CollegeBaketballEyeTest.com Reveals Entire Bracket on Twitter
As the nation weighs in on who they think will be the biggest underdogs to make a run in March Madness 2026, Collegebasketballeyetest.com author Matty D. has already released his full bracket of choices on Twitter.
I continue to look away from national “pundits.” My track record over the years is pretty good.
The South Region Shows the Highest Potential for Madness
The South Region offers a wide spectrum of point-spread opportunities, and CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com blogger Matty D. has identified several spots where the number itself creates betting value. In the Friday slate, Matty D. likes Iowa laying 2.5 points against Clemson, believing the Hawkeyes are positioned to clear the modest spread in that matchup.
Thursday’s board presents a deeper collection of underdog tickets. Matty D. is backing McNeese plus 11.5 points against Vanderbilt, viewing the double-digit cushion as a worthwhile investment. He is also taking Troy plus 13.5 against Nebraska, grabbing what he sees as one of the larger leverage spreads on the opening round card. In another early game, Matty D. likes VCU plus 2.5 points against North Carolina, siding with the Rams as short underdogs.
Further down the bracket, Matty D. is supporting Penn plus 23.5 against Illinois, locking in a substantial number that could create late-game cover potential. He is also taking Texas A&M plus 2.5 against Saint Mary’s, stepping in on the Aggies as a slight underdog in what projects as a competitive contest. Finally, Matty D. is laying the points with Houston at minus 22.5 against Idaho, trusting the Cougars to handle business against an overmatched first-round opponent.
These selections reflect a philosophy centered on spread value rather than bracket advancement projections. By targeting numbers that offer leverage relative to public perception and seeding expectations, Matty D. approaches the South Region as a collection of individual betting markets rather than a single elimination puzzle.
Field of 32 Update: Four Super-Sleeper Tickets Still Breathing
With the NCAA Tournament trimmed from the Field of 68 to the surviving 32 teams, five of the original “Cinderella haymaker” futures remain alive: Utah State, St. John’s, Texas, Nebraska, and Arkansas. The national-title betting market has tightened accordingly, with Arkansas now hovering in the roughly +5000 range, while St. John’s has drifted into the long-shot tier around +8000 at major sportsbooks as the bracket pressure intensifies.
Utah State continues to represent classic mid-major upside — a disciplined, veteran roster capable of stringing together upset wins in a wide-open region. Texas, meanwhile, carries the profile of a dangerous power-conference survivor: athletic, battle-tested, and still flying slightly under the radar compared to No. 1-seed headline contenders.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are also alive. They and their opponent, the Vanderbilt Commodores, each contain some value with a price around the 60-1 to 80-1 territory as they try to knock each other out.
Arkansas stands as the most actionable ticket remaining, combining elite guard play with SEC-level physicality that translates well into second-weekend matchups. St. John’s offers the emotional upside of Madison Square Garden energy and Rick Pitino’s tournament pedigree — the kind of narrative fuel that can ignite belief among fans and bettors alike.
At this stage, the value proposition is simple: five live tickets, five different paths to chaos — and a bracket that suddenly feels more open than expected.
Continue reading to see the top 10 that was listed when the 2026 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament began…
Oddsmakers Overlooking these Underdogs as the NCAA Basketball Tourney Begins
If you’re searching for March Madness sleeper picks, NCAA bracket tips, or long-shot teams that could bust your office pool wide open, this breakdown is designed to give you an edge. After watching a full season of college basketball matchups, momentum swings, and injury storylines, I’ve identified five potential Cinderella contenders priced at 60-to-1 odds or longer to win the national championship.
This article lays out the logic behind each pick, using visual scouting, late-season trends, and tournament-style matchup projections to help casual fans and bracket enthusiasts spot undervalued teams before the Madness truly begins.
This is the second edition of this article. A 5-pack of picks was expanded to 10 teams after four of the original picks found themselves in the West Region. In addition to sheer math making it impossible all four teams would make a run to the Sweet 16, those teams also landed in the same region with Arizona on Selection Sunday. Arizona is my pick to win it all. Still, there’s value in these sleepers.
For a printable bracket for March Madness 2026, click here, then see this top 10…
Troy Trojans (500-1 for Final 4) – Sleeper No. 10
Social media and TV producers alike will love this team. If you want a fun story to hitch your wagon to, learn more about the brothers “The Red Mambas.”
McNeese Cowboys (500-1 for Final 4) – Sleeper No. 9
There’s an opportunity cost of not taking McNeese State. Vanderbilt has completely overachieved this season and they should be commended for brining the program back from a rough stretch.
However, McNeese State still passes the eye test despite losing coach Will Wade. They reloaded not only with a few returning players from last year’s field of 32 participants, but they hit the lottery when landing freshman Larry Johnson. He has been one of the most productive freshmen in the nation, in a year where that says a lot, averaging 17.5 per game. McNeese State will not be afraid to play against an SEC opponent and the Commodores need to bring their A+ game to win this one.
It’s important to shop around for future values, especially in this super Cinderella territory. The odds will differ dramatically. For example, McNeese is a 300-1 long-shot to reach a Final Four on DraftKings. On FanDuel, they are a much better price at 500-1 for that same outcome.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (150-1) — Sleeper No. 8
Kicking off this countdown of March Madness sleeper candidates is Nebraska, a team that has quietly built momentum through disciplined shot selection and improved defensive toughness late in the season. The Cornhuskers have shown the ability to dictate tempo in structured half-court settings, a valuable trait in tournament basketball where possessions tighten. When perimeter confidence aligns with physical rebounding effort, Nebraska becomes a far more dangerous matchup than its odds suggest. As the fifth-ranked sleeper on this list, Nebraska represents a battle-tested Big Ten roster capable of disrupting early-round expectations.
Futures tickets on the secondary market at PropSwap for Nebraska were seen around the 155-1 territory on St. Patrick’s Day.
St. John’s Red Storm (80-1) – Sleeper No. 7
I actually like a team that could play them in the Elite 8 (see below), but any chance to grab head coach Rick Pitino at this price is too good to pass up.
Texas Longhorns (400-1) — Sleeper No. 6
Chendall Weaver and the Texas Longhorns might not be a “sleeper” anymore after bursting on the scene in primetime during a play-in game. Weaver showed an incredible spark off the bench as NC State wasn’t able to keep the pace with the Longhorn’s workaholic ways. 7-0 sophomore big man Matas Vokietaitis showed off the perfect footwork down low and the Longhorns might just be the latest in a string of 11 seeds to go on a Sweet 16 run after competing in the play-in game.
California Baptist (2,000-1) — Sleeper No. 5
California Baptist has one of the best 5 scorers in the nation and is playing a team that has been very shaky down the stretch. Another lesson we’ve learned from recent tournament scripts is that when teams show us who they are (being a worsening team)… believe them.
Missouri Tigers (200-1) — Sleeper No. 4
Next in this sleeper countdown is Missouri, whose profile centers on interior efficiency and late-game composure. The Tigers feature multiple frontcourt contributors who finish effectively in the paint while also drawing fouls at a steady rate. That physical presence gives Missouri a path to control tempo against more perimeter-oriented opponents. Defensive length and rebounding stability further enhance their upset potential in grind-it-out matchups. As the fourth-ranked sleeper, Missouri offers a blend of size and toughness that could translate into bracket volatility.
As this countdown narrows toward the top overall value pick, Arkansas emerges as the most explosive high-major sleeper on the board. Freshman point guard Darius Acuff Jr. has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to take over games with confident shot creation and fearless late-clock scoring. That kind of dynamic guard play is often the defining ingredient in deep March runs. Arkansas also shows improving defensive intensity and transition scoring upside, traits that can fuel multiple upset wins. Positioned as the No. 2 sleeper in this ranking, the Razorbacks offer star-driven volatility at attractive long-shot odds.
The Razorbacks were 60-1 on Selection Sunday morning before winning the SEC title and moving to 50-1 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Utah State Aggies (200-1) — Sleeper No. 2 Overall Value
Finishing this sleeper countdown at the top spot is Utah State, whose toughness, cohesion, and competitive edge make them the most intriguing long-shot championship value on the board. The Aggies consistently display urgency on loose balls and defensive rotations, characteristics that translate well to neutral-floor tournament play. Their offensive rhythm and efficient scoring stretches suggest a team capable of sustaining momentum across multiple rounds. Notably, Utah State was briefly spotted at 500-to-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook on Selection Sunday, a rare market discount that underscores how quickly sleeper perception can shift. As the No. 1 value pick in this countdown, the Aggies combine effort, chemistry, and price to form a classic Cinderella profile.
🐶 Utah State is loaded with dogs who want it!!! Aztecs are a tourney team too. Look at this effort 👀 pic.twitter.com/VtetQ2Ehdt
South Florida Bulls (125-1 for a Final Four) — Sleeper No. 1
At the midpoint of this countdown sits South Florida, one of the nation’s most statistically intriguing sleeper teams because of its elite offensive rebounding production. The Bulls consistently generate second-chance opportunities, allowing them to remain competitive even during cold shooting stretches. That relentless effort on the glass also forces foul trouble and disrupts rhythm for higher-seeded opponents. Teams that create extra possessions naturally increase tournament variance — the lifeblood of Cinderella runs. Ranked third on this sleeper list, USF brings energy and physicality that can drag favorites into uncomfortable games.
Each March, the NCAA Tournament introduces college basketball fans to a new group of mid-major champions who earned automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments. This blog article will evaluate the visual “eye test” qualities of each mid-major team that secured a place in the 2026 Men’s College Basketball Tournament bracket, focusing on those who punched their ticket prior to Gonzaga.
While Gonzaga appears on this conference outline, the program is widely regarded as a national power despite competing in a traditionally weaker conference structure. The goal of this article is to provide quick-hit visual scouting impressions of these mid-major qualifiers.
BY MATTY D.
Tennessee State Jumps Off the Page when Comparing Hype to the Eye Test
One of the first teams to punch their tickets to the 2026 Men’s College Basketball Tournament could be one of the most dangerous and dramatic upset candidates in the entire tourney. If you like riding underdogs on your bracket, you may enjoy how this team’s entry will be old news by the time Selection Sunday gets sorted out.
Guard Aaron Nkrumah absolutely jumps off the page. Or, should I say, he jumps off the TV screen with athleticism. The bouncy 6-6 senior scored 14 points in the championship win against Morehead State, but it was actually noteworthy that the Tigers enjoyed five players scoring in the teens during that game. This is on par with how Tennessee State has been finishing up its regular season. Since losing its last time this season to Morehead State, the Tigers have been beating teams by an average of 18 points, including two lopsided wins of 27 and 26 points against SIUE and Morehead State, respectively.
If you needed any more reasons to like Tennessee State as a sleeper team, consider its head coach. This past summer, former 4-year starting Duke point guard Nolan Smith was announced at the Tigers head coach. This, after serving as an assistant with Memphis and Louisville.
“Smith spent his entire playing career at Duke under Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski, widely regarded as one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history. That experience helped shape Smith’s foundation as a tactician, motivator, and leader.”
Seniority “On Brand” as UNI Finds the Field Once Again
In this age of NIL, it’s hard to find examples of seniority thriving in college basketball.
Yet, there’s a perfect example of hard work paying off in the Missouri Valley Conference. The University of Northern Iowa is led by 4-year senior guard Trey Campbell, who also led an Iowa high school team to a state championship.
Of course, it wouldn’t be “on brand” to say that UNI is a one man show. Campbell leads the team with 13 points per game, but has four other teammates averaging around double digits.
Northern Iowa also has seniority when it comes to its long tenured head coach. Ben Jacobson has been at the helm for the Panthers since 2006.
Furman Finds Itself As Another Fiesty 6 Seed to Fight Its Way Into the Tournament
Ironically, both the Furman Paladins and that Northern Iowa Panthers teams are making it into the tournament as former 6 seeds in their own conferences.
Furman is a well-put-together roster with capable athletes everywhere. Led by a true freshman in Alex Wilkins, he has brothers Cooper and Cole Bowser attacking the rim at his side.
Not only do UNI and Furman share similarities as 6 seeds to win their conference championship, but they also squared off earlier this season in non-conference play.
Former Syracuse Fan Favorite Fanning the Flames of Upstate New York Revival
If you live in New York, you might be happy to hear that three of the first 11 teams to make the NCAA Tournament are from the Empire State. Upstate New York may have been hopeful of a rejuvenation of Syracuse basketball with Carmelo Anthony’s son playing for the orange and blue.
However, it’s another former Syracuse Orange player who is making a splash.
Syracuse cult hero Gerry McNamara, aka “G-Mac” has led another Upstate New York program to prominence. You’ll remember Gerry McNamara as the starting point guard on the 2001 Syracuse Orange championship team. Now, the Siena Saints of the capital region will return to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament with McNamara as their head coach.
Siena Saints head coach Gerry McNamara courtesy SienaSaints.com Potographer Josh Miller
True to the script of how the universe is unfolding as it should, McNamara’s Saints are led by another gritty undersized under-recruited combo guard from Upstate New York. Gavin Doty of Fulton, NY is averaging 18 points for the Saints in his sophomore season. Siena was dominating Merrimack in the MAC Championship game in the first half before they had to fend off a more serious run.
What Else You Should Know about the First 10 Teams to Make March Madness 2026
As the bracket continues to take shape, six additional mid-major champions who punched their tickets before Gonzaga deserve at least a quick closing nod. Queens (N.C.) arrives from the ASUN with one of the nation’s most aggressive transition attacks, routinely pushing tempo behind dynamic guard play. High Point leaned on a prolific perimeter scoring profile during its Big South title run, spacing the floor with multiple double-figure shooters. Wright State brings a physically imposing interior presence that has powered one of the Horizon League’s most efficient paint-scoring units. Long Island surged late with disruptive on-ball pressure that fueled a top-tier steal rate in Northeast Conference play. And North Dakota State, long respected for disciplined execution, once again showcased a methodical half-court offense that finished near the top of the Summit League in shooting efficiency — a reminder that even in a tournament defined by chaos, structure and shot-making still travel well when the lights get brightest. Hofstra returns to March Madness with a reputation for elite ball security, consistently ranking among conference leaders in assist-to-turnover efficiency.
Underdog Reads Continue to Deliver Betting Value as Season ATS Record Stays Profitable
The final tune-up before the NCAA Tournament could not have gone much better, as the Suspect Spreads card closed the regular season with a 7–2 performance against the spread. That strong finish pushed the overall campaign further into profitable territory, bringing the cumulative season mark to 44–35 ATS, a solid clip above the traditional break-even point. The late surge reinforces the broader season-long trend of successfully identifying competitive underdogs and short-number spreads, providing added confidence as the focus now shifts from regular-season edges to the unique volatility of March Madness.
The NIL has brought a new era of college basketball. Freshmen took over the 2025-2026 season. A few key injuries also added to the volatile nature of the season. These betting-market dynamics have repeatedly created opportunities for sharp reads on competitive teams catching short numbers. In those environments, CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com author Matty D. repeatedly spots live dogs who can outperform expectations, reinforcing the broader edge demonstrated throughout the season.
Zooming out to the broader body of work, the selections continue to reflect a profitable overall profile. The updated full-season mark now stands at 44–35 against the spread, good for a 55.7% winning percentage, comfortably clearing the traditional break-even threshold in standard wagering markets. Perhaps more telling is how the strongest momentum developed during the late-January through mid-February window, when the card produced a 31–24 ATS surge. That sustained success highlights how matchup-driven evaluation and underdog identification can generate meaningful betting value as conference play intensifies and public perception struggles to keep pace with evolving team form.
The #SuspectSpreadsSaturday experiment has quietly remained profitable as the college basketball season has progressed.
College Basketball ATS Picks Cold in January, Warm Up in February
That success is even more notable considering how uneven the beginning of the season was. The very first week of picks on January 3rd produced a 5–7 ATS result, dropping the running season record to 9–15 after two weeks. The early cards leaned heavily toward favorites like Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky while mixing in a few underdogs such as Auburn and Missouri. The results were volatile, but the week did produce several correct reads including Auburn, Houston, Iowa, Purdue, and Missouri covering their numbers.
The following week on January 10th continued the experimental phase. The handwritten card included Tennessee +4.5, UConn -19.5, Houston -2.5, LSU +13.5, Iowa State -18.5, Arizona -6.5, and Texas Tech -6.5. After comparing those picks with the game results from that Saturday slate, the card finished approximately 4–3 ATS, with Tennessee, Houston, Arizona, and Texas Tech providing covers while the larger favorites such as UConn and Iowa State struggled to justify the heavy numbers. That week provided an early hint of what would become a recurring pattern: moderate spreads and competitive underdogs were more reliable than laying big numbers with national contenders.
Once the calendar flipped deeper into conference play, the results began to stabilize. From January 17 onward, the cards produced a 31–24 ATS run, highlighted by a 7–2 week on January 24th and a 5–2 week on February 21st. One particularly encouraging trend has been success with two-possession underdogs in the +3.5 to +6.5 range. Teams such as Minnesota (+4.5), North Carolina (+6.5), Illinois (+5.5), Baylor (+6.5), Tennessee (+3.5), Arizona (+5.5), and USC (+4.5) frequently fell into this window. Those plays represented a meaningful portion of the winning selections, suggesting that the approach is effectively identifying spots where the betting market slightly overrates favorites in competitive matchups.
Another subtle trend is that the picks have performed best when fading momentum or brand-name bias surrounding major programs. Underdogs like Ole Miss, Illinois, and Minnesota produced several of the most profitable covers, while weeks with heavier favorite exposure — such as the 3–6 card most recently — tended to produce the most volatility. Still, the broader trajectory remains encouraging. After beginning the season below .500, the mid-season correction to a 56% ATS clip since January 17th suggests the Suspect Spreads Saturday strategy is trending upward just as the college basketball calendar approaches conference tournaments and March Madness, where betting markets historically become even more inefficient.
Oddsmakers Face a Tricky Puzzle Entering Conference Tournament Week
No one is ever going to feel badly for the sportsbook, but they do have a tricky dilemma headed into conference championship week. Some of the Power Five’s best teams might have players nursing injuries or doing load management. On the flip side, you have teams at the bottom of the league that are incredibly desperate to win the conference tournament and punch their ticket to March Madness. Creating the odds in this landscape is most certainly a challenging exercise.
Conference tournament week is often where March Madness sleepers emerge, especially when desperate teams collide with favorites managing injuries or tired legs.
A team like UConn might be an obvious minus-150 moneyline favorite to win its league in the Big East. However, there could always be a team lurking around 80-to-1 that suddenly becomes very dangerous. Here are a few sleeper teams for conference championship week when everything is on the line.
Could the Running Rebels Bring Vegas High Wire Act Into the Big Dance?
My #1 Sleeper Pick — Because the Odds Payout Could Be Huge
With Cincinatti losing to (8 seed in the Big 12) UCF on Wednesday, only one more team is running away with my fantasies of super underdoggery.
UNLV is staying true to its form as the entertainment capital of the country with how the Running Rebels are entertaining college basketball fans in the closing weeks of the season.
They have a leading scorer in Dra Gibbs-Laworn who dropped 42 points in an overtime win against Nevada. They also won a thrilling matchup against Boise State after coming back from more than 25 points. Not long after that, UNLV absolutely crushed Utah State, which is a no-doubt NCAA Tournament team.
With that kind of momentum and scoring ability, the Rebels could be a dangerous sleeper if they carry that energy into conference tournament play. According to the eye test, UNLV is clearly one of the March Madness sleepers to watch if they can string together a few wins in their conference tournament.
Could Stanford’s Quietly Improving Season Turn Into an ACC Tournament Surprise?
Could Red-Hot Colorado State Carry Its Late-Season Momentum Into the Mountain West Tournament?
My #2 Sleeper Pick
Another team that has been heating up late in the season is Colorado State. The Rams struggled earlier in the year and at one point started the season just 3-8 before finding their rhythm.
Since that slow start, Colorado State has quietly been one of the hotter teams in its league, going on an impressive run and winning the majority of its games down the stretch. The Rams have been able to win with balanced scoring and efficient shooting, and they have shown they can beat quality teams in the Mountain West. Center Kyle Jorgensen is one of many players who have returned from injury and are playing with upbeat swagger.
That type of late-season momentum can be dangerous in a conference tournament setting. If you’re looking at conference tournament predictions, Colorado State is the type of team that could surprise people if their recent form continues.
Could Northwestern’s Gritty Wildcats Turn Close Calls Into a Tournament Run?
Teams That Could Shake Up Conference Tournament Week
Prior to a championship week starting with very disappointing performances by the so-called bubble teams, ironically the two remaining bid stealers were from the Mountain West.
On this article, I had previously written how, “conference tournament week is always chaotic.”
History shows that several surprise teams reach the NCAA Tournament every year. Cincinnati, UNLV, Stanford, Colorado State and Northwestern all have recent momentum or roster advantages that could make them dangerous in a single-elimination setting.
If even one of these teams catches the right matchups and continues its late-season form, the road to March Madness could suddenly look very different.
Here are some injuries for you to monitor before filling out your bracket for March Madness 2026.
The end of the regular season is seeing its share of season ending injuries to stars, but there are plenty more injury statuses to keep an eye on. Even if these players have returned, its worth noting how they and their team have performed in the closing month of the season before the Madness begins.
The NCAA Tournament is producing Madness already as the Field of 32 is established. One major injury for a title contender tops the list of injuries we are monitoring
Joshua Jefferson Out with a Bad Ankle Sprain Suffered against Tennessee State
Iowa State is often described as a big three, but its biggest of those three went down against Tennessee State. Joshua Jefferson plays like a point forward where the offense revolves around him. Jefferson went down to the ground after a play against the Tigers and took a while to get up. He came back from the locker-room to join his teammates on the sidelines wearing a boot and using crutches. Iowa State told the Des Moines Register that X-Ray results were negative, but it’s unlikely that Jefferson returns based on how that looked.
Mikel Brown Jr. Remains Out for Louisville with a Lower Back Issue
Sports Illustrated is reporting that the likely one-and-done star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. will remain unavailable for the Cardinals. Brown Jr. missed five consecutive games before the tournament began with this same back injury.
Other Injuries that Happened before the Field of 32 settled in the NCAA Tournament
Please continue reading to learn more context about injuries that made an impact during the 2025-2026 Men’s College Basketball season.
Alabama’s Second Leading Scorer Still Out as Drug Investigation Continues
Aden Holloway’s criminal record may have suffered a serious injury this month. His picture is still listed on the Alabama Crimson Tide’s website and roster, but he will not be seen on the court. Holloway faces some serious felony charges after police claim to have seized marijuana from the star guard’s possession just days before the tournament began.
Duke Blue Devils Get Double-Whammy of Bad Injury News on Championship Week
When you think of Duke championships, you think of steady point guards. That’s the look of Caleb Foster with this current Blue Devils team. That is, that was the look of the Duke team before Championship Week. On that week, we learned that Foster is out indefinitely with a broken foot.
The loss of Caleb Foster removes a steady ball-handler who contributes 8.5 points and nearly three assists per game. His assist-to-turnover ratio was roughly 3:1. Foster’s perimeter shooting and ability to initiate offense help stabilize tempo late in games, making Duke more dependent on primary scorers to generate quality looks.
Historically, Duke’s deepest March runs have almost always coincided with steady primary guard orchestration — whether through Hurley’s distribution, Wojciechowski’s defensive tone-setting, Scheyer’s decision-making, or Jones’ clutch scoring.
So far this season, it’s another familiar family name for Duke that has grabbed all of the headlines: Boozer. Cameron Boozer’s banner freshman season has been widely celebrated, but now his brother (fellow freshman) Cayden Boozer is jumping into the spotlight in lieu of Foster’s injury. Cayden had not got much run earlier this season. However, now that Foster is out, Cayden Boozer has stepped up to the challenge and started at point guard while helping lead Duke to an ACC Championship.
On the heels of leading his team to an ACC Championship and asked by ESPN’s sideline reporter about two key injuries, Duke freshman Cayden Boozer says the Blue Devils can still win it all.
Duke Loses Interior Efficiency and Rim Protection Without Patrick Ngongba II
Duke’s frontcourt rotation takes a measurable hit with Patrick Ngongba II sidelined. The center averages 10.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and a team-leading 1.1 blocks while shooting over 60 percent from the field. His absence reduces interior scoring efficiency, weakens rim protection, and limits second-chance opportunities.
During the ACC Tournament, there was a game against Clemson where Duke actually gave only 7 players minutes.
Jaden Bradley in a Brace to finish the Big 12 Tournament
The Big 12 Men’s Basketball Championship game was a physical one between two national title contenders, in Houston and Arizona. Arizona star point guard (and Big 12 Player of the Year) Jaden Bradley took a fall and headed to the locker-room mid-game.
He re-emegerd with a brace around his hand and thumb. Shortly after returning to the bench, he headed back into the game. The Wildcats withstood a wild comeback by the Cougars to hand onto the win and the Big 12 title.
Arizona star and #Big12mbb POY Jaden Bradley returns to the Wildcats bench from the locker room with a thumb brace on his hand, but returns to the game! pic.twitter.com/1Ay5FtQOG5
The headline of the college basketball injury landscape is Caleb Wilson’s broken hand. UNC star Caleb Wilson suffered a broken in late January, but has shared on social media how he looks forward to playing again at Chapel Hill. Because Wilson is a no-doubt NBA lottery pick, many people were speculating that he’ll never return to a UNC powder blue uniform again.
Wilson never made it back to the court to finish his freshman season, despite trying. He broke his hand again during practice while building up to game shape in early March.
BYU’s Richie Saunders Ruled Out for Season with ACL Tear
The headline of an injury-plagued second half of the college basketball season was this sad news. BYU sharpshooter Richie Saunders suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Saunders was a veteran leader for the Cougars, averaging around 18.8 points per game while shooting nearly 49% from the field and about 37.6% from three this season.
His absence was felt both on the scoreboard. The guard tore his ACL on Feb. 14. The Cougars were 19–6 at the time, but have gone just 2–4 in the games since the injury, dropping five of their last seven overall and sliding out of the AP Top 25. A key moment was when BYU visited Cincinnati to begin March and lose what could be a defacto playoff game if The Big 12 gets only one bubble team into the tournament.
Since Saunders went down, AJ Dybantsa has taken on an even larger scoring burden. His production has climbed from 24.4 points per game before the injury to 27.2 afterward, but the added volume has come with lower efficiency, as his field-goal percentage has dropped from 53.6% to 46.6% over the last five games.
Darius Acuff Ankle Acting Out to Start March, Looking More-than-Recovered Now
The Arkansas point guard was starting to get national player of the year consideration, led by some in the coaching community. The star freshman had a bum ankle that kept him out of an early March game against Missouri. However, the stud has since more than recovered. Acuff Jr. has been dropping 30 points easily in games, including his lethal shooting that effectively knocked Oklahoma out of the tournament conversation during a dramatic SEC Tournament win.
Losing to the 20th ranked Razorbacks certainly got Texas Head Coach Sean Miller’s attention. He called Acuff Jr. the best point guard he’d seen in 40 years.
Illinois Injury Shuffle: Boswell Returns, Stojakovic Now Sidelined
It was guard off the IL, one guard remaining on the IL for Illinois. After an extended absence from the lineup, Kylan Boswell returned to the lineup for a convincing win at home against Indiana, giving the Illini a much-needed jolt of experience and steadiness. However, Andrej Stojakovic has been now nursing an ankle injury of his own, and Illinois suddenly finds itself toggling between getting healthier and losing another key contributor.
Both guards have been playing in March, but it’s Illinois inconsistency that has fans anxious headed into Selection Sunday. Illinois lost two games they seemingly had control of to Wisconsin, one of which ruined their chances of advancing to the Big 10 Tournament quarterfinals.
Gonzaga’s Braden Huff Injury Could Loom Larger Than Expected
Braden Huff was emerging as one of those classic Gonzaga program players who evolves from a skinny modest contributor to a major force down low. His verstality as a stretch 4 has been noticeably missing since his 4–8 week absence began a few weeks ago with a knee injury. However, as his timetable stalls and the postseason competition intensifies, this injury could become more consequential as the weeks go by.
There are no signs that Huff is close to returning to the lineup, as Gonzaga will return to March Madness as the West Coast Conference Champions, once again.
Kansas Star Darren Paterson: Injury Mystery or Draft Countdown?
If you were waiting for a better explanation for Darren Paterson baffling dynamic with the Kansas Jayhawks, you may still be waiting a while. There were two odd losses in March for the Jayhawks, but now it might be three strikes and they’re out. After going viral for tapping head coach Bill Self to take him out of a game against Oklahoma State, Kansas has been one of the most glaring chemistry disasters nationwide. A lopsided loss against Houston in front of their home crowd in Kansas City during the Big 12 Tournament might be the ultimate litmus test. This team isn’t connected and they’re going to get beat in the tournament.
There’s been some confusion surrounding KU basketball star Darren Paterson’s status this season. Right now, it remains unclear whether he is doing college basketball part time before cashing in his NBA Lottery ticket, or whether he has a tangible injury that we should be monitoring. Kansas has not provided a fully transparent update, and that ambiguity has fueled speculation at the worst possible time of year. A Kansas Jayhawks loss at Arizona State has the questions more about team chemistry than it does Paterson’s health status. The Jayhawks also lost at home to Cincinnati when Paterson played his most minutes of the season.
Kentucky’s Jayden Quaintance Remains Sidelined With Knee Injury
Jayden Quaintance has missed an extended stretch of games for Kentucky while dealing with a knee injury, and his status remains one of the most important health questions for the Wildcats entering the heart of the postseason. The former Arizona State transfer brings rare athleticism and size to Kentucky’s frontcourt, making his absence especially noticeable in matchups against bigger opponents. Reports in mid-February indicated that the length of the injury has also begun to impact outside perceptions of his season and availability. Until Quaintance is cleared to return, Kentucky’s rotation continues to operate without one of its most physically dynamic interior pieces.
USC’s Engine: Chad Baker-Mazara Shut Down
We don’t know if feelings got injured or if a body part got injured, but USC shut down Chad Baker-Mazara to start March. The program announced that he is no longer on the team. He was tthe engine that made the Trojans go. After transferring from Auburn, Baker-Mazara has emerged as USC’s most consistent offensive force, providing scoring, shot creation, and leadership in late-game moments.
Teams Currently Carrying Completely Clean Injury Reports
Some of America’s top programs currently show completely free injury reports, giving them a major advantage as the season tightens:
Now that the NFL season is over, it’s time to get serious about which teams I would invest in as future values for the 2025-2026 Men’s College Basketball season and March Madness. Here are some teams that I would consider for a low risk, high-reward payoff in the futures market.
BY MATTY D.
For example, I had a ticket for Oregon to win a national football title at 8-1 before the night began. After the Miami Hurricanes beat the odds-on favorite for a national title, the Ohio State Buckeyes, that same ticket became 6-1 (theoretically increasing in value 25%).
Volatile Kentucky Futures Worth Monitoring for Low Risk High Reward Payoff
Even by Kentucky standards, this college basketball season has been very dramatic. There have been big highs and low lows. Head coach Mark Pope was a champion as a player with the 1996 Kentucky team. Yet, after a so-so start to the 2025-2026, some Kentucky fans were calling for his job. After high profile back-to-back wins against Indiana and St. John’s to finish 2025, it was the consecutive losses to Alabama and Missouri to start 2026 that got Wildcats fans twisted.
Kentucky’s futures value to win a national championship has fluctuated anywhere from the 40-1 territory to sitting around 100-1 in mid February (according to DraftKings NCAAB futures market).
Kentucky’s volatile future value can also be contributed to the health status of key players.
Starting point guard Jaland Lowe is out for the season with a shoulder injury and super athletic big man (and Arizona State transfer) Jayden Quaintance has been missing a slew of games with a knee injury. The Wildcats had won 8 of 9 games without Quaintance is a nice run in mid-January to mid-February before getting dominated by a bigger Florida bunch.
The Lexington Herald Leader was reporting in mid-February how Quaintance’s draft stock was decreasing due to his extended absence with that knee injury. If he made a triumphant return to the lineup in March, that would be a major boost to the stock of a program that we know has a high ceiling.
Kentucky’s season has not been all about inconsistency. Combo guard Otega Oweh has been the model of consistency. He has shown an ability to shoulder the load and lead this Cats bunch.
Over that 8-of-9 run, Oweh regularly posted 20-plus points while contributing across the stat sheet — mixing efficient shooting with rebounds, assists, and timely defensive plays that helped stabilize Kentucky’s offense when other key pieces were banged up. His scoring spurts against Ohio State, Tennessee, and Arkansas weren’t just box-score padding; they shifted momentum in games where Kentucky needed a go-to option, and his willingness to shoulder that responsibility underscored the Wildcats’ potential when their stars are firing on all cylinders. That blend of production and poise from Oweh during their best stretch this season crystallizes just how high this Kentucky roster can rise when roles are clear and confidence is high.
Nebraska Cornhuskers Harvesting the Best Tourney Resume No one is Talking About
Even as Nebraska knocked off top 10 ranked Michigan State in dramatic fashion in a January 2nd home game, the oddsmakers kept disrespecting the Huskers. Nebraska stood as a 20-1 long-shot to make a Final Four on FanDuel, despite having one of America’s best (and still undefeated) records.
Joe Lunardi’s December 30th bracketology had them as a 4 seed in the West Region, but Monday’s AP Top 25 voting might have them as the 4th best ranked team in the nation.
It’s hard to believe that head coach Fred Hoiberg is already in his seventh season as head man at Nebraska, after his “mayoral” status at the Hilton Coliseum with Iowa State. However, his family legacy is continuing in Lincoln this season in legendary fashion. He is coaching his son to an undefeated start of the season (well into 2026) overseeing a program that his grandfather coached for 9 seasons starting in the 1950s. This team is loaded with storylines that any TV producer at CBS Sports would salivate over during March Madness. It could be time that you put a shekel on the huskers.
Nebraska maxed out at a value around 25-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. At Valentine’s Day where the week saw a dramatic overtime loss to Purdue and a beat-down of Northwestern, I still love this team as a future value of 10-1 to reach a Final Four.
Utah State 200-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship
Utah State delivered one of the more eye-opening results of February by dominating Memphis in a rare non-conference matchup of potential bubble teams, Utah State and the Memphis Tigers on Valentine’s Day. Even with that kind of résumé-defining performance on a national stage, the Aggies’ futures value has remained hovering around 200-1 to win a championship, the type of number that suggests the market still hasn’t fully caught up to how solid this group really is.
Someone is coming out of the Mountain West grandfathered in as the annual 7 through 11 seed, and this veteran laden bunch is as good a bet as any to win a few games.
Before conference play, Utah State Aggies quietly built a strong résumé for bettors seeking high-quality future value picks. The Aggies paired legitimate wins over programs like VCU and Tulane with dominant blowouts of Davidson, Charlotte, and Colorado State, showing both floor and ceiling. That blend of NET-relevant victories and decisive margins signaled a team undervalued nationally entering league play.
College Basketball Eye Test Notebook Logging a Spreadsheet of values 2025-2026
Arizona and Iowa are also two teams whose odds I am watching closely. Listed below is a simple chart comparing NCAAB Futures on two major Sportsbooks in December of 2025.
Iowa left the circle of trust on Valentine’s Day after being dominated by Purdue. They also struggled mightily against a bigger Illinois team in early January, exposing their lack of size.
College basketball future tickets for an underdog team to win the national championship in 2026 could make for a perfect stocking stuffer for 2025. Here are a few tickets I’d love to see under my Christmas tree.
BY MATTY D.
Big 10 offers ample opportunities for high value underdogs in NCAAB Futures market
Let’s start our search for future values in the Big 10 Conference, where the league is making a sound argument as being the nation’s best league, with multiple different suitors for a Final Four bid. Nebraska is the poster child for the high ceiling teams within this group. In mid-November, you could find the Cornhuskers around 250-1 to win it all. Now, after winning its first 12 games and scoring key resume win against Illinois, K-State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Creighton, this team is still a bargain at 60-1.
Here are some more Big 10 teams to consider for your portfolio. Michigan State stands at 20-1, Illinois 22-1, Iowa at 100-1, and Indiana at 120-1. Those odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and posted on Christmas Eve.
Of course, Michigan stands alone at the top with the biggest amount of respect given in the futures market currently. They are +450 to win it all. That’s at least twice as expensive as any other team in the nation.
Which favorite is the best future value to win the 2026 college basketball championship?
With the Wolverines sitting at +450, that leaves a fleet of still great value picks around that 10-1 neighborhood. Arizona is +850, UCONN 10-1, and Duke 11-1. That group is followed by Iowa State, Purdue, and Houston at 12-1 or 13-1.
From that group, I would choose Arizona and Duke. In fact, I could easily see these teams steamrolling the competition to represent the West and East regions respectively in the national championship game itself. Having two tickets at +850 and 11-1 with that championship matchup together would be a good problem to have.
If those odds aren’t cheap enough for your liking, consider this. This is also the time of the sports calendar year where NFL teams are starting to separate themselves and either pass the eye test, or not. While teams like the Buccaneers, Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs are all suffering some unlikely knockout punches, teams like the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers are showing some incredible value.
For example, a $5 bet on the 49ers to win the NFC combined with Arizona to win the championship would net $332.
Super sleeper underdogs who could compete in the 2026 March Madness tournament
As they say, “get in the dance and anything can happen.”
Here are some crazy underdogs that I am keeping an eye on at the 100-1 and lower vicinity.
Please note that most of these teams would have to win their own conference tournament championship to enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
St. Mary’s is 250-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship
The Gaels actually have a recent history of making the tournament as an at large team, thanks in part to its conference mate Gonzaga’s gravitational pull as a national power plus its holding its own against those Bulldogs. This year, St. Mary’s returns an impressive veteran core that includes Harry Wessels and Paulius Murauskas, plus super sophomores Mikey Lewis and Andrew McKeever. McKeever, a 7 foot 2 center from California is averaging nearly a double double after 13 games (11-2 in that stretch).
Utah State 200-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship
Someone is coming out of the Mountain West grandfathered in as the annual 7 through 11 seed, and this veteran laden bunch is as good a bet as any to win a few games.
Before conference play, Utah State Aggiesquietly built a strong résumé for bettors seeking high-quality future value picks. The Aggies paired legitimate wins over programs like VCU and Tulane with dominant blowouts of Davidson, Charlotte, and Colorado State, showing both floor and ceiling. That blend of NET-relevant victories and decisive margins signaled a team undervalued nationally entering league play.
South Florida Bulls at +280 to win the American Conference
Before conference play fully shapes the market, the South Florida Bulls profile as an appealing future value bet under head coach Bryan Hodgson. Coming from the Nate Oats coaching tree, Hodgson emphasizes pace, spacing, and high-volume three-point shooting. His track record of rapid turnarounds and top-50 offenses suggests South Florida’s relentless attack could outperform preseason expectations. You cannot find South Florida on futures markets just yet, so we will leave the article here with a nasty haymaker pick. If you want to play this team, you can grab them at +280 to win their conference and add to that position if/when they make the tournament that way.
College Basketball Eye Test 