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Top 5 Future Underdog Values for 2025 March Madness Men’s Basketball

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Whether you’re looking to snag a great price on a college basketball future, or just cramming before the 2025 NCAA Basketball tournament, this list will track the best 5 values.

Of course, this is a subjective opinion.

Best Long-shot odds for the 2024-2025 College Basketball Season

This website and its author Matty D. focuses on what is seen on TV (and occasionally in person), as compared to analytics and top 25 lists.

Odds for the 2024-2025 college basketball season started out with a log jam of great teams in the 9-1 to 16-1 territory. Auburn started the year around 16-1 or 20-1 to win it all, before climbing to the top one or two teams in the national rankings.

Both Auburn and Duke have spent weeks are the overwhelming favorites for odds to win it all, while a pack of second tier teams were separated starting around the 10-1, 12-1 territory afterwards. Some Sportsbooks have even listed a combined ticket of either Duke or Auburn to win a championship in the +120 moneyline territory.

Look for links to buy some futures tickets from our PropSwap page in the article below!
Look for the stock up and the green check mark emojis. 📈✅ 

With the fluctuating of top teams oscillating somewhere in this 10-1 or 20-1 territory, below are my favorite long-shot odds to win the title at 55-1 or longer. For your information, many teams are vacillating in the 20-1 to 50-1 price range. If you like the teams in that territory, this isn’t your article. But it’s still worth watching. For example, on February 8th Illinois had shifted from a 30-1 odds team to a 55-1 team to win it all. If you love the KU Jayhawks, it’s worth noting they’ve fluctuated between 30-1 and 35-1 quite routinely. If you love them so much, you should invest in that 35-1 number after their next loss. Following a win, they’ve been 25-1 or 30-1 on popular sites such as DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.

BYU Odds to Win a Men’s College Basketball Championship, Link to Buy a Ticket

5. Continuity is an important ingredient in this exercise. Most times, when a new coach comes into a program, all players flee to find other opportunities. Not with BYU. Although new head coach Kevin Young has come in, a small core of important contributors have remained with the Cougars. And they’ve now been surrounded with NBA talent such as Russian Egor Demin, who is currently projected as the 18th overall pick in an mock draft on NBA.com. This team is hitting its stride with road wins in the late stages of the regular season against top tier teams such as Iowa State and Arizona. They demolished Kansas. And they get a huge volume of 3pt shots, which can overcome most deficits when they get down (its inevitable if you’re going to play multiple tournament games). This team started February in the 125-1 range, but look at them now!

📈Click here to buy a futures ticket for BYU to Win a National Title on the PropSwap market✅ 

Drake Bulldogs Perhaps America’s Best Underdogs at 500-1!

4. Two words. Bennett Stirtz. He is the smoothest point guard in America that no one is talking about. Drake has a wealth of Kansas City area kids and transfers from Northwestern Missouri State, where the new head coach has had championship success.

Northwest Missouri State’s championship pedigree under Ben McCollum is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His four national titles and 81.2% career win rate showcase his ability to build and sustain an elite program. McCollum’s proven ability to recruit, develop, and maximize talent will translate well as he steps onto a larger stage. His history of dominating conference play and guiding players to national accolades suggests that his approach—rooted in discipline, strategy, and player development—can immediately impact a Division I program. Expect his winning mentality to create a competitive and successful culture at the next level.

Yale Basketball Intriguing Odds at 1,000-1 to win it all

3. With the exception of center Danny Wolf who transferred to Michigan, this Ivy League power is an intelligent bet to make at 1,000 – 1 because of its returning talent and wisdom. This Yale squad upset Auburn last year in the 13 vs. 4 seed matchup. And with exception to its point guards, this is the same Auburn team that is currently ranked a heavy overall favorite to win the 2025 championship. Let’s get crazy and picture a scenario where, at 250-1 odds, Yale makes the Final Four and squares for a rematch with Auburn in 2025!

Ball handling is at a premium during the NCAA Tournament. And Yale has a healthy contingency of trusted guards. Senior starters Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas return to the 2025 roster with hopes to advance its Cinderella aspirations seen during 2024 March Madness. If you remember, Poulakidas has some dramatic shot making in the closing moments of that 2024 contest to march the Bulldogs back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter (equivalent).

John Poulakidas with a serious game face as he pulls off a career high in the 2024 tourney

As for this current iteration of the Yale Bulldogs in the 2024-2025 regular season, there’s an argument to be made that they’re a better team than last year. Yale basketball has been on a tear, riding a nine-game winning streak to a 16-6 record (9-0 in Ivy League play). The Bulldogs have dominated conference opponents with decisive wins over Harvard, Princeton, and Penn while also pulling out a nail-biting 72-71 victory over Pennsylvania. Their early-season struggles featured close losses to major conference opponents such as Minnesota (59-56) and UTEP (75-74), along with a high-scoring overtime defeat to Delaware (100-94), showcasing their ability to compete in tight matchups. Throughout the season, a core group of players has consistently led the way—John Poulakidas has been the team’s primary scorer, with standout performances like a 32-point outing against Cornell, while Danny Townsend and Yassine Gharram have been dominant on the glass. Bez Mbeng has been a steady facilitator, regularly leading in assists, including a 12-assist showing against Cornell. With their current momentum, Yale has established itself as the team to beat in the Ivy League.

St. Mary’s Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship

2. The St. Mary’s Gaels get some respect here as a top choice for futures values. The Gaels roster combines some long-time players with tournament experience, but a splash of new generation players like combo guard Mikey Lewis. He and veteran point guard Augustus Marciulionis make for a formidable pairing in the backcourt. (Yes, Marciulonis is one of many sons of NBA players playing in college basketball right now. See the list here).

The Gaels got out to a great start this season, winning 9 of its first 10 games. As always, its tournament resume will be filtered in large part by whether it can beat Gonzaga. The play the Zags twice in February and won both matchups! They wrapped up the WCC regular season title on February 22nd, a stunning accomplishment for a team that’s barely ever ranked in the AP Top 25 (this season, at least).

At the time of this article being published, the Gaels futures odds had a large variability. On FanDuel, odds to make a Final Four were 45-1. On DraftKings, the same odds were 25-1.

St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga in an uncharacteristically low shooting percentage (including free throws) game for both teams to begin February, when St. Mary’s championship hopes stuck around 80-1.

Texas A&M Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship

  1. Texas A&M has been on this list since it began the 2024-205 campaign at 80-1, so it will remain grandfathered on this “best of” list despite its price surging to around 30-1 while it sticks in the AP top 10 in mid-February.

    The Aggies return 82% of their scoring from the 2023-2024 campaign and surge here to the best overall value to win the tournament. Led by point guard Wade Taylor IV, the Aggies have the depth, the coach, and the culture with its commitment to defense. Their roster is an embarrassment of riches when it comes to 6-7 to 6-9 athletes with a multi-faceted talents. However, they don’t really play many at 6-10 or taller.

    Texas A&M started the season at 75-1 or 80-1 to win a title, based on where you’ve seen their odds.

If for some reason you don’t like Texas A&M, but you’re looking for a similarly valued team from the stacked SEC, consider the Missouri Tigers.

CUT LINE 2025:

“Also Receiving Votes” for College Basketball Best Future Value Teams for 2025

Michigan Wolverines Import Cinderella Ingredients to Make for an NCAAB Sleeper

Grand Canyon Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship

Removed from this List after losing to CA Baptist

We are still not over the pummeling that Grand Canyon suffered to California Baptist. I’ve never seen that program play, but it’s hard to put my support beyond the Antelopes after that ass beating. Here’s what was previously written: At 250-1 to win a title on DraftKings around the holidays, the Antelopes were be an intriguing lottery ticket to receive in the Christmas stocking. A blowout loss to California Baptist in early February gave you pause as it put the Antelopes behind Utah Valley in the conference standings. Still, this conference and this team is worth a pick as part of this list.

Grand Canyon has a lot of ingredients you look for when searching for a high ceiling stock. First, they have a winnable conference. You wouldn’t expect them to get an at-large, although it’s actually possible with this team. However, they should be able to handle in-conference competition such as Southern Utah and Abilene Christian in the WAC conference standings. Secondly, they have tournament experience. In fact, they logged a win against another team on this list.

As February began, CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm had them slated as a 13 seed due to play Memphis. That would be the type of winnable game that could propel the antelope into a position as the hunter and not the prey.

Grand Canyon was a 12 seed last year when it got a win. Last but not least, they have a star player who can go into takeover mode. Tyon Grant-Foster averages over 16 points per game (and dropped 22 in last year’s tournament win).

Michigan Basketball Cut from the Top Underdog List

Michigan was cut from this top 5 list after its performance became shaky in late February, but it’s ticket price become more costly. The Wolverines struggled to beat Rutgers at home and then got dominated by Illinois.

This blog had previously published how, “We can’t ignore how Michigan imported Dusty May, the 2023-2024 darling of the tournament leading his Florida Atlantic Owls to the Final 4. Also, they’ve added a 7-footer from that squad plus an additional 7-footer from another Cinderella Yale program.”

Arizona State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship

Arizona State was pulled from this list after getting into its conference schedule and playing typical unpredictable undisciplined basketball for a Bobby Hurley coached team (I know, counterintuitive, you would think). Previous comments: “This team might be a riskier pick than the aforementioned team with an equal price. The Sun Devils odds could be more volatile than coach Bobby Hurley’s behavior on the sidelines. That’s why they call it gambling. As a newcomer to the Big 12, you’ll have to monitor this team’s regular season performance. The Sun Devils have four guards averaging 9 points or more (three in double digits). As its name would suggest, this team can get hot (or cold) with devilish volatility.

The Sun Devils were 250-1 on DraftKings on December 14, 2024 to win it all.”

Penn State Odds to Win 2025 NCAA Basketball Championship

Penn State got off to a hot start with a court-storming home win against Purdue, but as we continue to watch the Big 10 this season, it seems to be a down year for the overinflated league. Previously wrote: “The Big 10 is going to be a tough conference to predict with traditional powers such as Purdue and Ohio State seemingly in a bit of a program transition. Purdue suffered some upsets early in the season as it adjusts to life without Zack Edey. And Ohio State is a mess. In the meantime, a team like Penn State is jumping off the page with its futures odds sitting at 100-1 in mid-December.”

2025 Update: Injuries to Monitor ahead of March Madness for Men’s College Basketball

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If you are exploring the futures market or already filling out your bracket, you need to do a status check on these men’s college basketball player injuries first!

🏀🏀Selection Sunday Edition last updated March 15, 2025 🏀🏀

Will Cooper Flagg Play Injured During March Madness for the Duke Blue Devils?

Just as news was announced that Duke superstar freshman would miss the ACC Championship game, Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated were reporting that Flagg would be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

For Duke, it’s not only Cooper Flagg whose injury is stressing out fans. Fellow projected NBA pick and forward Maliq Brown has also been spotted on the sidelines wearing an arm wrap after dislocating his shoulder.

Texas Tech Twin Injuries that Could Ruin a Deep-Run for Red Raiders

Chance McMillian and Darrian Williams each missed Texas Tech’s last game in the Big 12 Tournament, which was also a lop-sided loss to Arizona.

Eye Test Observers Monitoring Other Injuries

Since posting this article, some @CBBEyeTest followers on Twitter have highlighted other injuries that they’re tracking. Joel Johns says that he’s watching for how Clemson basketball will make up for Dillon Hunter‘s missing production. The Greenville News is reporting that the guard is out indefinitely after breaking his right hand recently against SMU.

Another Twitter user “Right Wing Dad” might be taking a “conservative approach” to how far he has Wisconsin going in his bracket. He is monitoring Carter Gilmore’s health status, although the 6-7 Badger is not currently listed on the injury report.

Alabama’s Grant Nelson Nursing Knee Injury

Alabama snagged a 2-seed in the tournament, but wasn’t sure the tournament availability of its big man, Grant Nelson. On conference championship weekend, Alabama.com was reporting that the injury wasn’t structural.

Grant Nelson stretches the floor for a high scoring Alabama attack

Kentucky Otega Oweh Recovering from Collision

Kentucky’s combo guard who looks like a fullback is recovering from tough personal contact.

Memphis Basketball Injury Status for Star Guard Tyrese Hunter

During the American Conference semifinal, Tyrese Hunter landed awkwardly on another players toes. He found himself on the sidelines in a walking boot for the rest of that contest against Tulane.

Tyrese Hunter gets a foot boot in the semifinal of his conference tournament.

Going without him during March Madness would be a massive loss. Hunter contributes nearly 14 points per game with 3 or 4 assists and rebounds per game to go with it.

Houston Cougars Counting on High Level Veteran Juwan Roberts

Houston stud power forward and veteran leader J’Wan Roberts missed the Big 12 Conference Championship game (Cougars still won), but he is expected to play in March Madness.

Arkansas Hogs Hope for Big Bonus if their Bubble Berth Gets Buttoned-Up

Once expected to miss the entire season, Arkansas’s guard Boogie Fland could add a major boost to the Razorback’s roster if he rebounds from a hand injury. The setback happened in January, but reports started to surface around Selection Sunday that Fland is returning to practice.

Boogie Fland, John Calipari, Arkansas – © Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Iowa State lists Nagging Injuries during Championship Week

The Cyclones are another team limping to the finish line of the regular season. Covers.com had both key rotation players Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey listed on the injury report as they both missed the Cyclone’s last game which was a rematch against BYU in the Big 12 Tournament. Lipsey and Gilbert had both played the prior game the day beforehand to Cincinnati, so one would assume they were being treated with care to avoid games on consecutive days.

Gilbert himself tweeted more information late Sunday, answering to speculation:

“Love/appreciate all of your support! i want yall to kno that there is nothing more to the situation. Im battling an injury that just can’t seem to get better while playing on it. But enough about me! We a 3 seed in Milwaukee .. Ik the guys are going to make you all proud!” -KG2Times on Twitter

Tender Wrist for St. John’s Hands-On Defense

Simeon Wilcher of St. John’s injured his hand in the semifinal game in the Big East Tournament, but played in the championship game the following day against Creighton.

Simeon Wilcher dunks over Sacred Heart defenders, courtesy St. John’s official roster

Other Injuries from the Archives Only for the 2024-2025 College Basketball Season

<The headlines below are archival references preceding >

Kansas KJ Adams Misses Time, Jayhawks Take Opportunity to Develop Depth

KJ Adams missed some time for the Kansas Jayhawks in late January. The one major loss suffered during that period was an embarrassing late collapse at Allen Fieldhouse against the Houston Cougars. However, this could ultimately be a good thing. This allowed the Jayhawks to develop the depth of their roster. Freshman forward Flory Bidunga flourished despite losing to Houston. He got some rare playing time and showed flashes of greatness in the post. Add him to a front line that includes Hunter Dickinson, who is having a healthy season for the chalky Jayhawks, and KU is suddenly looking like a dangerous blood blood that somehow snuck under the radar.

KJ Adams spotted missing a noteworthy loss at home to Houston

It is impossible to replace the production that Hunter Dickinson brings to KU Hoops. After a 2023-2024 season that saw him miss some time, Dickinson has played every game for the Jayhawks in November, December and January. His game log (and our eye test) shows consistent rebounding numbers between 8 and 14 per game. Dickinson can also get hot as a scorer, with a high ceiling in the high 20s.

Xavier NBA Prospect Plays after Limping Off Court Against St. John’s Mid-January

Xavier Sophomore Dailyn Swain was averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds when his squad was riding a 3 game winning streak and battling St. John’s in a Big East showdown at MSG. Swain was injured late and limped off the court as Xavier was in the middle of squandering a health lead.

Still, Swain returned right to the lineup in the next game. Instead, Xavier basketball has three other injuries listed on the Covers.com site.



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College Basketball Teams on the Bubble – Ice Cold in January

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These major college basketball programs are getting ice cold at the wrong time and jeopardizing their seed line or even their tournament berth. That includes one Mid-Major whose Cinderella slipper may be falling off before the ball. 

BY MATTY D.

Matty D. of CollegeBasketballEyeTest.com identifies top teams going ice cold in January

Sons of NBA Players in College Basketball 2024

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The list of sons of NBA players hooping in college basketball seems to grow each year and here’s a look at the long list for the 2023-2024 season.

BY MATTY D.

  1. Bronny James

    LeBron James’ son Bronny has to be the most well recognized son of an NBA star in today’s college basketball landscape. After suffering cardiac arrest in the preseason, Bronny James made his USC debut after missing several games. 

    He was ranked by ESPN.com as the number 19th best basketball recruit coming out of high school. USC lists the freshman at 6-4 and 210 pounds. 

2. DJ Rodman

Although USC has the son of a sure-fire Hall of Fame player, USC has the son of another current Hall of Fame player. And that’s Dennis Rodman. Rodman’s son DJ Rodman had a stellar collegiate career at Washington State. Now he gets to chase an NCAA Final Four as a member of the USC Trojans. Similar to his father, DJ has a knack for rebounding. Of course, no one is the rebounder that Dennis Rodman is. However, DJ has a smooth shooting stroke and range that his father rarely showcased. 

3. Augustas Marciulionis

This guy often doesn’t make these lists, but Augustas Marciulionis has been starring at St. Mary’s for years now. The Gaels are a perennial March Madness participant, and this guard is a big reason why.

Do you like old school hoops from the 80s and 90s? Do yourself a favor and watch a sample of Šarūnas Marčiulionis Career Highlights. 

4. Jamal Mashburn Jr.

Jamal Mashburn Jr. has been a best-kept-secret in the second generation category because of his teams inability to make the NCAA Tournament. Mashburn Jr. started his collegiate career with Minnesota and then transferred to the New Mexico State Lobos. Unlike his father Jamal Mashburn who starred at Kentucky and in Final Fours, junior has not been able to crack the bracket yet. The last time the Gophers made the tournament was 2019. The last time the Lobos made the tournament was 2014.  Hopefully, the sharpshooting Mashburn Jr. will re-introduce the family name to a national audience come March of 2024. 

5. Jaelen House

Mashburn Jr. isn’t the only Lobo with a familiar last name listed on New Mexico’s roster. Jaelen House is another sharpshooting guard who is following in his father’s footsteps. Eddie House played for the Celtics, Suns and Heat in addition to also playing for the Arizona State Sun Devils (where Jaelen started his collegiate jounrey. 

6. Jace Howard

Juwan Howard has now had many sons come through the NCAA Division 1 ranks. Currently, Juwan senior’s number 25 isn’t retired from this alma mater Michigan. However, the number is in good hands with his son Jace. 

7. Jabri Abdur-Rahim 

Jabri Abdur-Rahim is the son of former lottery pick and Grizzlies great, Shareef Adbur-Rahim.

8-9. Ashton and Jayden Hardaway

Penny Hardaway is actually coaching two of his sons with the Memphis Tigers. Jayden Hardaway has earned his minutes over the years and is now a regular rotation player with the Tigers. Ashton Hardaway is a freshman and has had his own share of bright moments this season. 

10. James Keefe

Former Atlanta Hawks forward Adam Keefe’s son James has seemingly played for Stanford for the last decade. The graduate student is a forward from Los Angeles. 

11. Jameer Nelson Jr.

After playing for the Delaware Hens in the Colonial Athletic League for several years, point guard Jameer Nelson Jr. has made the leap to Big 12 Basketball as he joins the TCU Horned Frogs.

12. Ryan Mutumbo

The son of one of the best-ever shot blockers, Dikembe Mutumbo, makes this list without much fanfare. Ryan Mutumbo has stuck it out during a rocky tenure with Georgetown. He has seen the thrill of coach Patrick Ewing leading his team to an unlikely tournament berth as a 12 seed after winning the 2021 Big East Championship. And, he’s seen that same coach fired for a new era with Ed Cooley. 

The 7 foot 2 junior plays sparingly for the Hoyas. At last check, he had played 7 of 22 games averaging just 4 minutes per. However, Mutumbo does have 28 blocks over his college career! Mutumbo’s cameo on this list bolsters the presence of second generation talent from the 1994-1996 NBA All Star game…

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13. D.J. Wagner

Fans of NBA basketball from the early 2000s might remember Dajuan Wagner. But, then again, then might have forgotten him. After one of the best high school basketball careers ever, Dajuan Wagner was drafted 6th overall by the Cleveland Cavs in 2002. A medical condition held him back from ever having an NBA career materialize. However, Google searches for “What happened to Dajuan Wagner” are morphing into “How high is D.J. Wagner’s draft stock?” That’s because his son D.J. Wagner is starring for a Kentucky Wildcats team that’s been consistently ranked in the top 25 this year. 

In recent years, Dajuan Wagner was interviewed by fellow past NBA players, Quentin Richardson and Darius Miles. 

More: Mike Miller, Larry Hughes Jr.

See previous year’s rosters of 2nd generation NCAAB/NBA Talent:

2022-2023
2021-2022

NCAAB Futures – Best Future Values for 2023-2024 College Basketball Season

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BY MATTY D. LAST UPDATED FEBRUARY 28, 2024

Check out 5 fantastic values when it comes to investing in underdogs to win March Madness. At last check, these teams were selling for at least 30-1 or better odds (i.e. more favorable to the bettor).

These values indicate the odds for each team to win an NCAA Championship. 
This same report resulted in two Final Four teams last year! See here. 

  1. BYU Cougars – NCAAB Futures 40-1

    I was buying into the BYU Cougars at 60-1 around year’s end. And after beating Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse to close out February, BYU’s stock is only going up. This team is historically older and more mature than its competition.  Spencer Johnson is a saucy point forward who epitomizes this with his court awareness.  Jaxson Robinson is an electric wing at 6-7 he offers a matchup problem for most teams.  Power forward Fousseyni Traore has returned from injury a few weeks ago and has contributed multiple 20 plus point performances. Not many teams ever win as a road team against Kansas. This could be a sign that there’s a special season on tap in Provo.


  2. South Florida Bulls – NCAAB Futures 300-1

    Amir Abdur-Rahim has done it again. Many people didn’t realize that he did it a first time. The first year head coach at South Florida has his team cracking the AP 25 and on its way to the Men’s College Basketball Tournament as we enter March. He did the same for little-known Kennesaw State last year. Abdur-Rahim is a rising star in the coaching realm. He brings senior guards Chris Youngblood and Brandon Stroud over from his Kennesaw success. The Bulls have beaten American Athletic Conference heavyweights such as FAU, SMU and Memphis this season. They actually finish February on a 13 game winning streak. It makes no sense that a team on such a roll is listed at 250 or even 300-to-1. However, you can find that value on popular apps such as FanDuel and DraftKings.

  3. Auburn Tigers – NCAAB Futures 30-1

    Bruce Pearl’s team returns a talented and postseason tested nucleus. NBA top pick Jabari Smith has been replaced by freshman Aden Holloway in terms of underclassman scoring punch.  This team is loaded with veteran players who value the ball late in games and patiently wait for the best shot. There are mutiple point guards with experience and toughness. Johni Brome looks more and more like Chris Bosh each year. You might have difficulty finding Auburn at 40-1 depending on when you’re reading this. However, they would still be worth it at 22-1 or 25-1.

  4. Seton Hall – NCAAB Futures 200-1

    The Seton Hall Pirates were spotted on DraftKings Sportsbook app the weekend of Christmas at 200-1 odds to win a college basketball championship. They remained in that range even after beating fellow bubble teams Xavier, Butler and St. John’s in late February. If Shaheen Holloway can lead the St. Peters Peacocks to the Elite 8, I think he has a chance of winning the Big East tournament.  The Pirates also beat top 5 teams UCONN and Marquette this season, so it’s not out of the question that they carve out a tournament worthy resume.  


  5. College of Charleston – NCAAB Futures 350-1

    Both of these long-shot odd choices are more about coaching. College of Charleston coach Pat Kelsey always has his team well conditioned and prepared to run a track meet and play above its weight class in tournament play. This team hasn’t had an earth-shattering season, but they are still among the favorites to win their conference and have a high upside.

This video below might haunt me scarier than the Ghost of Christmas Past. I made the argument to invest in Memphis, among some other dogs. Check out the archive:

College Basketball Eye Test’s Top Resources for March Madness 2023

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Track injury updates, get under-the-radar analysis, and learn some fun facts about this year’s 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Links our top 5 trending articles are listed below.

BY MATTY D.

Filling out this year’s bracket was like putting my hand to a ouija board. I would have never expected having throwback teams like Memphis, Kentucky and Michigan State in this year’s Sweet Sixteen within one region. Alas, here is how my bracket revealed itself:

College basketball blogger Matt DeSarle (ie. yours truly) will return to Las Vegas for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic to track trends and hunt value during this March Madness. Follow on YouTube for sports betting tips and fun human interest stories. He will also be updating these articles to keep you up-to-date on these top 5 storylines.

  1. Top 11 Injuries to Monitor During 2023 March Madness
  2. Sons of NBA Players in this Year’s NCAA Tournament
  3. Six Trends Fixed as Annual Traditions during March Madness
  4. Four Tips for How To Win March Madness in Las Vegas
  5. Top 5 Long-shots Underdogs to Win a College Basketball Championship

It’s often said that “this year’s tournament will be unlike any other.” While that is always true, this March it will especially be the case. The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will feature a high number of mid-major teams and a wide spectrum of ages. This tournament will feature kids who reclassified in high school to start playing college hoops at 17 years-old. Conversely, this will be one of the only tournaments you’ll ever see so many 24 and 25 year-olds (not to mention 26-year-old DeAndre Williams).

Photo courtesy of Zach Wall/ Gotigersgo.com

11 Injuries to Monitor Before Filling out your Bracket – March Madness 2023

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March Madness 2023 is underway and this article is tracking the most important injuries to monitor. That includes watching how teams are adjusting after losing stars. Don’t fill out your 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket before checking on the health statuses here!

BY MATTY D.

The new headline is to track the status of a starting guard for the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship. Marcus Sasser missed the AAC Championship game against Memphis and is questionable going forward.

Photo courtesy uhcougars.com

Unfortunately, this update also comes as one of the best players on one of the best teams just tore his ACL. Zakai Zeigler, the 5-9 spark plug for the Vols offense and defense just suffered the injury on the eve of March. Despite the cruel turn of events for this surging sophomore, he took to Twitter with a very positive message:

Aside from Zeigler’s major injury, there are many student athletes still in recovery mode. Here are the top 11 injuries to monitor while those players are nursing different ailments. See more of a summary of how this affects each team in alphabetical order below.

Top Injuries to Monitor across College Basketball

To recap, here is a top 10 list (plus some) of the most important injuries to monitor:

14. Jett Howard – Michigan guard
13. Chucky Hepburn – Wisconsin guard 
12.  Moussa Cisse – Oklahoma State center
11. Anthony Anderson III – Oklahoma State guard
– – – – – – – – – PROJECTED CUT – – – – – – – – –
11. Nijel Pack  – Miami guard
10. Efton Reid III   – Gonzaga center
9. Federiko Federiko – Pittsburgh center
8.  Kendrick Davis – Memphis guard
7. Timmy Allen – Texas forward
6. Ben Vander Plas – Virginia forward
5. Zach Freemantle  – Xavier forward
4. Keyonte George – Baylor guard
3. *Jaylen Clark – UCLA wing
2. *Zakai Zeigler – Tennessee guard
1. Marcus Sasser – Houston guard

In the case of 2 of the top 3 injuries here, there is no chance for a recovery. Both Jaylen Clark and Zakai Zeigler are *out for the remainder of the season. In these and similar cases, we are monitoring the team adjustments instead of the personal recoveries.

Players recently returned from injury add to resurgent college basketball teams

It’s not all bad news on this list. In fact, there’s a strong handful of players who are recently back into lineups and taking their teams to the next level. Nick Smith Jr. is adding a scoring punch to an Arkansas lineup that suddenly has found itself on the bubble. Justin Moore has a month under his belt after a torn Achilles. His Villanova Wildcats looks like Nova once again. And Dariq Whitehead has been back for Duke with the Blue Devils finally safely off the bubble.

See more about each team affected in alphabetical order below.

Arkansas and its future NBA lottery pick Nick Smith Jr. navigates knee “management”

Nick Smith Jr. returned to action on February 11th after missing nearly two months with “knee management.”  He played just 21 game minutes in his first pair of games, but then averaged around 35 minutes after that.  In fact, he played all 40 minutes in a close matchup against the Alabama Roll Tide in a game the Razorbacks were fighting from behind for most of.  He dropped 24 points and grabbed 6 points in that game.  It looks like Nick Smith Jr. is back to his NBA prospect self, but check his injury status pregame during March Madness just in case! 

Photo courtesy arkansasrazorbacks.com

Baylor back in the habit of reloading talent

Keyonte George missed a game at Oklahoma State in late February, but it almost didn’t matter. The freshman shooting guard has glided right into a productive role with Baylor this season. But in his absence, the Baylor Bears just reloaded again. This team is already accustomed to losing one or two first round picks to the NBA every year. Now, it’s also been in the unfortunate habit of having injured players miss some of all of the season. Baylor has been in postseason position and jockeying for the Big 12 title this season, despite not having veteran forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. Now he is back.

In that Oklahoma State game that George missed with an ankle sprain, seldom used guard Dale Bonner filed right in with 15 points in 32 minutes. He had rarely played in the previous few games. Baylor coach Scott Drew has an abundance of riches. This team should be feared as a top pick to win it all.

Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images

Duke started its season without the services of All-American freshmen, center Dereck Lively II and small forward Dariq Whitehead. In late February, Duke had a completely clean injury report according to Covers.com. Still, double-check these youthful Dukies for any bumps and bruises.

Gonzaga monitors the injury status of its rim protector off the bench Efton Reid III

If the Gonzaga Bulldogs are going to make a deep run in the tournament, they need to stand tall at the rim. After 7-foot something Chet Holmgren left for the NBA, the Bulldogs were a little thin on the inside. They added Efton Reid III, a big man from LSU. When Reid popped up on the injury report in late February, it was a concern for Gonzaga’s overall depth.

Reid has returned to action in March, but has played sparingly. He logged only four minutes in the WCC Championship game against St. Mary’s.

Memphis monitors a motley crew of injuries to its ball-handlers

Point guard Keynote Kennedy punched a wall after a loss to Houston and effectively sidelined himself for the rest of the regular season. He was the Tigers third leading scorer. Its top scorer and senior transfer Kendrick Davis also missed that game with a bad ankle. Davis averages around 21 points a game. Both of these teams are worth monitoring as Memphis will likely be an underdog in both its own conference tournament and if/when it makes the NCAA Basketball Tournament. They’ll need all hands on deck (and not against walls).

Miami misses Nijel Pack in a game they’d like to have back

Florida State stormed back to beat the Miami Hurricanes in a game their tournament seeding will likely want back. Florida State isn’t good this year. However, it’s important to note that K-State transfer guard Nijel Pack missed that game for Miami with a lower body injury. Watch this injury closely so that Miami doesn’t suffer anymore surprises.

Michigan plays it safe with Jett Howard’s injury, looks to get on right side of bubble

The coach’s son Jett Howard missed the Wisconsin game with an ankle injury in late February where the Wolverines nearly lost. One more loss in a close game like this might cost Michigan its tournament berth. Watch Jett Howard’s status. He is averaging 14.4 points per game for a Michigan team that can struggle at times to score.

(Missouri’s Kobe Brown out with an illness February 26th – should be short term).

Oklahoma State tournament chances on thin ice while starting center and guards out

It’s never good to have your starting center and starting guard out while you’re trying to play your way off the bubble. But that’s exactly the position that Oklahoma State finds itself in. Moussa Cisse and Anthony Anderson III are both missing time as we roll into March. Anderson’s injury might be more long-standing with him dealing with a wrist injury.

Pittsburgh wins play-in-game despite not having a center in the starting lineup

The nation learned who Federiko Federiko was on Tuesday night as the tournament tipped off with its play-in games. The Panthers center was listed as a game time decision, according to Pittsburgh Sports now, but he ended up sitting out the game while nursing a knee injury. The nation watched as the Panthers battled to win a tight one point game against Mississippi State. Jorge Diaz Graham did a nice job as a substitute center, stretching Miss St. center Tolu Smith outside of the paint. The smaller lineup worked out for Pittsburgh.

(TCU’s Eddie Lampkin Jr. out with undisclosed injury late February).

Tennessee suffers major blow with Zakai Ziegler’s injury

Ziegler’s injury leaves the Vols very thin at point guard. The Volunteers just lost Kennedy Chandler to the NBA (and Memphis Grizzlies) after a one-and-done campaign. Shooting guard Santiago Vescovi is expected to do more ball handling. Tyreke Key is also expected to get more minutes.  

Wisconsin watches Chucky Hepburn’s injury status

Wisconsin’s starting point guard Chucky Hepburn missed some minutes against Michigan in a critical game to finish February. He remains on the injury report with a lower body injury. Hepburn played the last few games for the Badgers, including a first round win against Bradley in the NIT Tournament.

Xavier’s Zach Freemantle ruled out for remainder of the season

For a second straight season, Zach Freemantle’s foot is finding itself on the injury report at the most inconvenient time. As March began, the power forward was ruled out for the remainder of the season. This leaves a gaping hole in the front-court of Sean Miller’s core unit. Fellow big man Jack Nunge will now need to continue (Freemantle has been out for weeks) picking up the slack on the boards and with help defense. The power forward was enjoying the fruits of a veteran team playing winning basketball with Sean Miller’s return to the Musketeers sidelines. Xavier is a 3 seed and will play against upset-minded 14 seed Kennesaw State. Kennesaw State has surged onto the national radar with an impressive program turnaround against coach Amir Abdur-Rahim.

UCLA loses super athletic wing Jaylen Clark for the season in major postseason loss

UCLA has a major problem on its hands. Despite how consistent guards Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have been over their careers, the Bruins rely on some offense you can’t draw up. This is where Jaylen Clark has come into play. He is a great slasher, finisher, and just the type of super athletic wing who you don’t have to feed the ball to in order to get productivity. His athleticism finds a way. Clark had more than doubled his offensive productivity from a season ago and averaged 16 points a game. He gave Campbell and Jaquez a great third option in the early or late stages of a shot clock. And Clark is a great defender. Now, UCLA will head into the tournament without their most athletic wing. This is a major problem.

Staff writer Ben Bolch of the LA Times writes how UCLA’s title chances aren’t over with Clark’s season-ending Achilles injury. I would disagree.

Bolch points to how UCLA went 6-1 while freshman guard Amari Bailey was out for a month with a foot injury. This is an apples to oranges comparison to the superior athleticism that Jaylen Clark brings on the floor. Bailey is a primary ball-handler, which UCLA already has in full supply with Tyger Campbell. Instead of thinking about Bailey as a replacement, freshman Dylan Andrews is more of the prototypical wing who Bruins fans need to look forward to stepping up.

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College basketball status update on Super Bowl weekend

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BY MATTY D.

Avoiding any chance of being upset is a good thing. That’s especially true in college basketball. On a weekend when the Super Bowl is expected to feature a tight matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles, college basketball’s conference standings are tight as well. Many important conference tournaments in college hoops have bye games for its top teams. Here’s a glance at college basketball games for Super Bowl weekend, with an eye on what teams can capture those all-important byes.

Mountain West Offers High Ceiling and High Seeding

The team that climbs to the top of the Mountain West Conference this season will reach certain heights in the college hoops landscape. The Mountain West is the fourth best conference in college basketball this year. Therefore, the conference winner will get regional preference and a top 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There will also be a pack of hikers from the league who have a high ceiling. Conversely, someone in the middle of the pack will slip and suffer a dramatic fall. Right now San Diego State is the only team from the conference that is technically “ranked” in the Top 25. The veteran team is again loaded with experienced players who can contribute 6 points or more.

The team that captures the top of the Mountain West will capture a high seed.

The second pack of teams from the conference is a force to be reckoned with. CBS Sports bracketology expert Jerry Palm has Nevada, Boise State and New Mexico all projected in the tournament on Super Bowl weekend. New Mexico just took a bad loss to Air Force on Friday night. The Lobos could be the character that slips from the rocks and falls out of the picture.

Two teams that could back-fill their position are Utah State and UNLV. Today they stand in the NET rankings at 33 and 82 respectively. UNLV is a current victim of how daunting this Mountain West conference actually is. However, when you watch them play, you recognize the high ceiling. The Runnin’ Rebels November matchup against another underrated conference team in Dayton was a good barameter for UNLVs’ potential. Former Oklahoma Sooner transfer Elijah Harmless led the way with 24 points. The Rebels have a fleet of skilled guards and a do-the-dirty work center in David Muoka who can compete with anyone at the rim.

On Saturday, UNLV gets an enormous chance to boost its tournament resume with a game at San Diego State. It’s unlikely that UNLV wins. It’s also unlikely that UNLV makes the NCAA tournament as an at large team. However, this game is a good litmus test to watch whether UNLV has its A game ready for the Mountain West Tournament. With six conference games remaining, it’s also unlikely that UNLV grabs a first round bye in the Mountain West Tournament. The Rebels were one slot short of that accomplishment last season. Right now they are four games behind Utah State in the loss column with six games left.

Big brands re-emerge in the Big East

There has been a bit of a Renaissance in the Big East. With exception of Georgetown, the big brand names remain relevant late in the season. College basketball fans were treated to a UCONN season where the Huskies were an AP Top 5 team. Sean Miller has returned to Xavier and immediately made them an AP Top 25 team. Although they are not a tournament team, even St. John’s is playing relevant basketball and perhaps looking at an NIT or a CBI bid.

However, the biggest mover right now is the Villanova Wildcats. This statement has caused a storm of debate on our Twitter page. However, with veteran guard Justin Moore back from an achilles tear in last year’s Big Dance, Villanova looks much better than its record shows.

Join the Villanova debate by following CBBEyeTest on Twitter.

The tournament committee is stubborn about a lot of things. One thing they have historically actually shown common sense about is judging a team that had a major injury. With Justin Moore back today from Achilles injury, Villanova is back in the tournament hunt as well.

Villanova was leading Creighton in Omaha on the game Justin Moore returned. They lost that one, but rebounded by beating up on Depaul. With an 11-13 record, they now play Seton Hall, Butler, Providence and Xavier next. That’s four winnable games and two Quad 1 opportunities. If they win five straight in this stretch, they will be 15-13 with an opportunity to avenge their loss against Crieghton to go to 16-13. Let’s assume they lose one more of their remaining Big East schedule. They would head into Madison Square Garden as a dangerous, experienced, battle-tested, ball security advocate in the Big East Tournament at 18-14. I don’t see the tournament committee keeping this group out of the Big Dance if they win 2 of 3 in the Big East Tournament in that scenario finishing at 20-15. That’s me. Or they could just win the Big East tournament.

The scrum of college basketball teams to grab the loose bids intensifies on Super Bowl weekend.

NCAAB Handicappers Free Picks for Saturdays, Season Record

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BY MATTY D.

Find free picks against the spread every Saturday for college basketball here on collegebasketballeytest.com. The theme of this article is to find incorrect odds, otherwise known as “suspect spreads.” Picks are tweeted before Saturday’s tip.

College basketball eye test’s record against the spread stands at 40-46 heading into the start of March.

Because Saturdays are really the most exciting national showcase of college basketball action, we focus on this day to have some fun.

This website and its author Matty D. took a 56% winning percentage from the 2021-2022 season into the 2022-2023 campaign. Click here to see a breakdown of last year’s picks. An archive of every pick from the 2022-2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Season is recorded below.

College Basketball Odds and Picks Against the Odds for Today

If sports betting isn’t your thing, the odds are still a great measuring tool to debate the best teams. Join the college hoops conversation by following us here on Twitter.

The final picks for February went 8-3 to put an unlucky streak to an end.

NCAAB Record Against the Odds for 2022-2023 by College Basketball Eye Test

Below is a log of some of the tweets from this season with picks, good and bad.

After starting with a poor record of 9-17 to start the season, the record ATS improved to 15-21 and then 18-22 after consecutive winning weeks. That record improved to 23-25 after going 5-3 during the SEC Big 12 Challenge. However, the picks had a difficult February. Picks took a nose-dive during a 1-4 showing on the first Saturday of February. The site then went back-to back losing weeks in mid February (a disgusting 2-7 performance on the heels of a 6-7 showing).

Here are January 21’s picks and January 14th’s listed below.

On January 7th, the picks were particularly bad. The one saving grace being that 5 of 6 favorites taken to cover at least hit ML. Kansas State the call of the day yet another +6 dog to win outright. Picking +6 underdogs to win outright has randomly been a strength of this website.

The year 2022 ended on a sour note with picks going 3-5. That brought the season record to a 5-7 start.

Join the college hoops conversation by following us here on Twitter.

Please bet responsibility, seek help if you need it, and find resources throughout this blog about betting college basketball on a budget.

Christmas Gift of College Hoops Saturday Teaches Us Who’s Naughty, Who’s Nice

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One Saturday in December features multiple fantastic matchups

BY MATT DE SARLE

Monday’s AP Top 25 in college basketball is going to look much different after this Saturday’s action. The latter half of the top ten is going to leap-frog much of the top 5. Teams like Purdue and UCONN got relatively little challenge against conference foes, while Virginia, Alabama, and Tennessee tested themselves against non-conference powers and lost in close matchups. Here’s a brief summary of what we observed.

UCLA and Kentucky struggle to score down the stretch

This one was tough to watch down the stretch. Collectively in the final six minutes of this game, these teams went 5-of-19 from the floor while missing a handful of free throws. It was droughts in the UCLA offense that ended its season at the hands of upstart UNC in the 2022 tournament. And we all know about how Kentucky came up short on the big stage against St. Peter’s. It was a big stage for this one, in the CBS Sports Classic in primetime and at Madison Square Garden, but the stars did not light up the score board. It was weird to see last season’s Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Award winner for center of the year, Oscar Tswiebwe, only get a few touches down the stretch. The big man missed his final three shots in the last ten minutes —a missed dunk, missed layup, and missed jumper.

UNC turns contest with Ohio State into a track meet to muster overtime win

As referenced above, the Tar Heels have a flair for the dramatics. In the 2021-2022 campaign, they started their season lousy on defense yet exciting in the open court. They played up to the competition. That volatility hit the plus side of the ledger when they ran through March Madness as the runner-up to a championship. Saturday’s game with them pitted against Ohio State at MSG felt like that moment. The Tar Heels were dominated throughout the meat of the game. However, through furious pressure defense, fast break points, and a high volume of free throws and three point attempts, the Tar Heels forced overtime. UNC trailed by as many as 14 points in the game and only made a pitiful 11 percent from three point territory. Yet, a likely X factor for their full season (Pete Nance) hit a game tying last possession shot to force overtime in dramatic fashion. Nance, the son of longtime NBA star Peter Nance, has polished a well-rounded game under the radar during his time at Northwestern. Now his ability to score at all three levels was the difference for UNC to finish off this epic comeback.

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Northwestern transfer Pete Nance proves he can be an X factor for UNC

Brandon Miller officially arrives on national stage despite Alabama’s loss to Gonzaga

There are two takeaways from Alabama’s game against Gonzaga. For one, Gonzaga doesn’t need to regret scheduling so aggressively. After so many non-conference bumps in the road, Drew Timme and Bulldogs are back to their winning ways. More importantly, Brandon Miller is a star and won’t be playing college basketball next season.

Drawing comparisons to Kevin Durant during the telecast, Brandon Miller lit up the game with 36 points. That includes a simmering stretch where he essentially scored 17 points in the equivalent of the 3rd quarter. Although the freshman was a known star, Alabama had never fed him in this obnoxious of a fashion. Miller made good on his 22 attempts by making 12 of them.

See the highlights here, courtesy of CBS Sports (and pirated by Frankie Vision for YouTube)

You can only watch Brandon Miller to believe he plays in a league other than the NBA

Arizona asserts itself in another mega-matchup nightcap

Us college basketball fans were treated to not only an amazing game of action, but a perfect nightcap to finish the day. Arizona proved that it can continue rising to the moment. After beating Indiana in a nationally televised primetime game on a big stage in Las Vegas, the Wildcats headed back to the crib for this one. The 9th ranked Wildcats knocked off the 6th ranked Tennessee Volunteers. And it got testy early and late. The game started with a technical foul for chest-bumping and stare downs under the rim. After the game, there were flexing and more stare downs in the handshake line. Still, what these teams showed between the lines was impressive. Zagai Ziegler continues his super efficient play at point guard for the Vols. He scored 21 points on 73% shooting (but only dished one assist). Tennessee guards are ready for primetime. Arizona’s bigs can be a separator. And both of these squads looked polished and ready for another high level competition like this one. This didn’t look like a Final 4 matchup. It looked like the national championship. Arizona has now beat top 25 teams Creighton, San Diego State, Indiana, and Tennessee in the early going of this season.