Cinderella can reside in the Power 5. In 2021, Georgetown surged in unlikely fashion after a horrible regular season. The Hoyas went dancing in March Madness as the Big East Tournament winner. The team had only gone 7-9 in the conference regular season and had an overall record of .500 (13-13).
Similarly, Oregon State went from an expected pre-season bottom feeder in the Pac-12, to The Elite 8.
Here are seven teams that could burst a bubble team’s dreams. It shouldn’t shock anyone who is watching college basketball to see these teams in a conference tournament championship game.
Maryland Terps 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Big Ten Conference
In an era of global turmoil, it’s safe to say that Maryland still had a rocky season. They brought in two highly touted transfers in Fatts Russell and Qudus Wahab. However, the Terps season got off to a slow turtle crawl. They lost to in-state non-rival George Mason. And Head Coach Mark Turgeon and the administration, reportedly, agreed to part ways mid-season.
Danny Manning took over as head coach. As you watch the team play, they are slowly rounding into form. A game against Nebraska in mid-February showed off their ceiling. Yes, it’s a lousy Nebraska team, but you saw freshman forward Julian Reese show off his stuff.
The roster is still beefed up with veteran players who have been in plenty of March Madness battles. Eric Ayala and Donta Scott come to mind. It was Danny Manning and the Miracles which made one of college basketball’s most magical runs ever. If some Big Ten teams get complacent during their conference tournament, it could be the Terps that go on a miraculous run.
Florida Atlantic Owls 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Conference USA
By NCAA Tournament standards, Conference USA is a major conference. Just in the last decade, look at what Middle Tennessee and North Texas have done to wreak havoc on the bracket. UAB, North Texas and even Louisiana Tech have been on the radar for modest at-large chances this season. However, the Florida Atlantic Owls are staying up late into February with relevant play in its league. In a seven game stretch over January to February, they won 6 of 7 games in conference. That includes the Owls’ dominating win against Louisiana Tech where the Owls shot 52% from the field, 45% from 3 point territory, and led by as many as 20 points.
Like many deep sleepers, this team features some sizable international talent. Its front-court features size and versatility with players from Kosovo, Russia, Senegal and Kongo all contributing.
Arizona State Sun Devils 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Pac 12 Conference
This one is simple. You cannot watch the Arizona State Sun Devils inspired play against Final 4 favorite UCLA and not be inspired to think they can go on a magical run. After an era of Arizona State pumping guards into the NBA, its powerful forwards forced the action against UCLA late. They beat the Bruins and the Oregon Ducks in February. They also scored a win against Colorado and were very competitive against an AP Top 5 team in Arizona.
Forwards like Jalen Graham are dropping double digits with regularity late in the season.
Bobby Hurley is one of the sports all-time great point guards. Perhaps he can be the floor general as head coach of the Sun Devils and lead them to a conference crown.
Utah State 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Mountain West Conference
Google the phrase college basketball elder statesman, and Brock Miller’s mug shot might pop up. This team is as aged as the sandy ledge of a mountain boarding the small town of Sandy, Utah. And they can shoot. Sure, big man Neemias Queta moved on to bigger and better things. But there’s still plenty of residue remaining to roll up a run. You could look at their record and say they’re toast. Or, you could look at their record and give props to just how good the Mountain West has been this year. Wyoming, Colorado State, and San Diego State are likely tournament teams regardless of what happens in the Mountain West Tournament. The Aggies are only middle of the pack in terms of college basketball’s best three point shooting team. On February 24th they ranked 159th in the nation with a pedestrian 34% from 3PT. However, that’s not indicative of the shooting stroke you could see from senior leaders Miller and Justin Bean. So why not let loose in Vegas and roll the dice with a bunch of bombs from downtown during Champ Week?
Last year Georgetown and Oregon State were unlikely Cinderellas from Power 5 conferences. I think unlikely teams with a similar chance to win and shock a (highly ranked) conference tournament this year includes:
Northwestern Utah State George Mason Florida Atlantic Mizzou
This list included Mizzou and Northwester weeks ago, but their play has since soured.
George Mason 2021-2022 Basketball Profile – Atlantic 10
The Atlantic 10 is filled with teams that are capable of “stealing a bid.” In fact, it will likely happen. Davidson has enjoyed a lead atop the league for most of the season. However, they face stiff competition with St. Louis, VCU, Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, and George Mason, to name a few. George Mason is coached by former Mizzou baller Kim English Jr. They are a bit of a mystery, with a lots of bad losses on their record. However, they have one of the conference’s purest shooters in Colorado transfer D’Shawn Schwartz. 6-9 forward Josh Oduro is having a solid season. He averages 18 points and 7 rebounds on the season. Their wins over St. Bonaventure, Dayton and Richmond should be noted as proof this team could compete for the conference championship.
The parody of the college basketball landscape in 2022 offers no shortage of long-shots with intriguing values. Many people (including myself) consider 7 or 8 teams that could easily win it all this year. However, none of those teams look like Baylor and Gonzaga did last year. It appeared inevitable those teams would face each other in a 2021 Championship game. Instead, those favorites right now are priced in the 4-1 to 6-1 territory. That’s teams like Gonzaga and Arizona. It would be hard to swallow paying a price in the 7-1 to 18-1 territory for any of these teams without the conviction of seeing them surge the way Gonzaga and Baylor had last season.
And so when the Madness of March begins, those 7 or 8 championship contenders could get upset and the list of possible champions would grow. Below are some of my favorite long-shot value picks to find themselves in the mix. If you’re considering any of these bets, please look at both the Final Four odds in addition to a National Championship ticket. The last thing you want is to have two of the four teams make the Final Four, neither win a national championship, and for you to not cash a ticket.
Read also my favorite 14 picks ATS on Thursday and Friday by clicking here. If you are struggling to moderate your gambling, help is available. Please visit https://www.ncpgambling.org or call 1-800-522-4700 to get help anonymously.
Editor’s Notes: This article has remained intact as-is for over a month. I will stick with my gut here and roll with the teams that I had hand-picked in mid-February. Subtle edits have been made to the start of the summary for each team below.
Updated: Best Longshot Odds to win March Madness 2022
Here are 5 teams that are the best value bets right now for college basketball futures. You could call them sleeper teams, although their likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament at this point is better than them not.
Best Long-shots to win March Madness 2022 by future values
According to FanDuel Sports App, UAB will enter March Madness as a 400-1 underdog to win a national title. The Blazers earned a 12 seed and will play against Houston in the first round.
Here’s what I had written earlier in the season…
These Blazers were trailblazing their way to a regular season conference championship, until they stubbed their toes at Old Dominion on Super Bowl weekend. Its stock sunk some 50-1 points. Still, they make my top 5.
Coached by former Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy, the Blazers are as dangerous as they come. Conference USA has continued to play the disruptor role in the NCAA Tournament. And with no shortage of size on this UAB roster, the sky could quite literally be the limit.
On January 22nd the Blazers beat current conference rival LA Tech in their house, securing (for now) an inside track to its conference championship. Jordan “Jelly” Walker scored 37 points in that game. As you know, a sub 6’1″ scorer is a hallmark sign of a dangerous Cinderella program.
UAB’s stock did slip in the following days after being upset by Marshall. This puts the Blazers in jeopardy of not winning its conference regular season. Regardless, Conference USA will likely be a one bid league. Therefore, if you invest in UAB you’ll need them to win their conference tournament.
Assuming it wins its conference tournament, UAB would likely get a 12, 13 or 14 seed. That means they could play an LSU, Texas Tech, or other middle-of-the-pack team from a Power 5 school. UAB has a 7 footer at center in Clemson transfer Trey Jemison, so size won’t intimate them. The Blazers can score the ball, ranking just within the top 50 on Kenpom’s score for efficiency. If you like UAB at 250-1 to win a national title, you’re going to love them at 65-1 to make the Final 4.
Responsible sports betting is possible when a 10 cent wager can win you 6 bucks. This wager was placed January 26, 2022 and reflects the “Vegas odds” at that point.
After its dramatic game-winning buzzer beater win by Jelly Walker at Western Kentucky, UAB stood as the 41st ranked KenPom team on January 28th. Meantime, they were 37th in the NET rankings. Therefore, a legitimate case can be made for UAB as an at-large bid, even if they don’t win their conference tournament.
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4. SAN FRANCISCO DONS BASKETBALL FUTURES 250-1
San Francisco drew a 10 seed and will play against a dangerous 7 seed in Murray State. Both of these programs are actually very dangerous in this position. Murray State is an even better value from a high-ceiling perspective. They enter the tournament at 500-1 to win a title according to FanDuel.
Here’s what I had written earlier this season…
There is a clear turning point in San Francisco’s season that has it skipping the line and getting into the middle of the mix as a great long-shot. After taking a large lead in pivotal games in January against Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, San Fran squandered those opportunities to punch their tickets. However, when February came, they blitzed BYU at their house. The Dons came out of halftime and continued pressuring the (weakened) post of BYU. They got out in transition and guarded well in transition. They took the life out of the crowd. It was the opposite of what those games in January looked like, and it could be a turning point for San Francisco to be considered one of America’s most dangerous underdogs.
San Francisco is lead by super senior point guard Jamaree Bouyee. He is one of the top 6-1 and under guards poised to upset some people in March Madness. They also have size down low, which is always a challenge for mid-major teams. San Francisco was available on the DraftKings app at 60-1 to make March Madness on February 3 and it’s unlikely that value will remain for long.
San Francisco stood at 200-1 to win a National Championship (and 80-1 to make the Final Four) on DraftKings on Valentine’s Day. Betters will love them even more if they can win a late February home game against Gonzaga before the tournament begins. They missed an opportunity to beat Gonzaga late in February, but the St. Mary’s Gaels did it on that same California road trip for the Bulldogs. The WCC has the pedigree to pull some upsets in this tournament.
Davidson draws a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament and plays against Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team. That’s bad news for Wildcats fans. However, Michigan State is beatable and so is Duke in the (possible) following round. I am rolling with Davidson at 400-1 here.
Here’s what I had written earlier in the season…
At the end of January, Davidson finally cracked into the AP Top 25 and officially became the most dangerous underdog in America. After the Wildcats went undefeated in its first six conference games with wins at St. Bonaventure and at VCU, they were honestly long overdue for this position. Throw in the fact that they beat Alabama and its Elite 8 pedigree.
The problem with Davidson going into the conference tournament “Champ Week” is that it faces about 5 other teams from the Atlantic 10 that could easily steal a bid. Richmond, VCU, Dayton, St. Louis and St. Bonaventure are all worthy opponents. Most of those teams are borderline tournament teams. Davidson finished February as a projected 11 seed in the tournament. That doesn’t leave much margin for error for Davidson to lose its conference tournament. If that happens, we could be looking at two A10 tournament teams, or a damn good Davidson team in the NIT.
A tempting bet in this direction is to take the Atlantic 10 at around 65-1 to have its team with the NCAA Basketball Tournament. That’s a great value if two teams make the tournament. It’s a lousy bet if only one does.
Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer gets the headlines as people talk about this team, but it’s really an extremely balanced squad. Loyer leads the team in assists. Four players average 12 or more points. Power forward Luka Brajkovic offers great hands and skill down low. The senior from Austria averages 7 rebounds per game. Junior guard Michael Jones showed everyone during a nationally televised game against Richmond that he can light it up. Jones was un-guardable that night as he scored 29 on 8 of 9 from the 3 point line. The Wildcats leading scorer is actually South Korean guard Hyunjung Lee. Lee averages 16 points per game with 6.7 rebounds with it. The stability of this upperclassman roster is anchored by a longtime winner, head coach Bob McKillop.
In his last bracket projection of January, Joe Lunardi had Davidson has a 9 seed. This is the type of mis-seeding that often happens to a mid-major team. This Davidson program probably had no business being a 10 seed with Stephen Curry before it made its magical Elite 8 run.
And while you can debate what Davidson’s seed would be, it’s not debatable anymore that it’s a tournament team. Therefore, even if you snag Davidson at 150-1 you could hedge it by taking the eventual round one matchup (today projected as BYU as a 125-1 underdog) and have some high ceiling options headed into the field of 32.
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USC’s value doubled as the bracket got announced, which means the payout is twice as great. I am doubling down on this team as they play a smaller Miami Hurricanes squad to start their March Madness journey.
Here’s what I wrote earlier this year about the Trojans…
USC defeated Oregon in their place on February 26th to bounce the Ducks from this list and insert themselves onto it.
I will admit to overlooking USC after one of its Mobley brothers (Evan) went to the NBA this season. While Evan Mobley is the likely NBA Rookie of the Year with the Cavaliers, big brother is one of the nation’s best veteran players. The 6-10 big man features great hands, range, rebounding, and the ability to orchestrate the offense from the post. Boogie Ellis is the actual orchestrator at point guard. He transferred from Memphis. Ellis is a streaky shooter who can definitely get hot. Shooting guard Drew Peterson is playing some really confident ball right now. He hit a dagger three to win that Oregon game and also went buck-wild against UCLA in a game that Mobley missed in early February.
USC has a front line of muscular forwards who can outwork people on the offensive glass if defenses aren’t aware. Head coach Andy Enfield has already taken the college basketball world by surprise in his career (see Dunk City). This USC team was in the Elite 8 last year. Many players on the current roster played key roles in a Sweet 16 win against Oregon.
A bet worth looking at is the Pac-12 around 5-1 to have a national champion. Obviously, you’d get a favorite in Arizona, a preseason favorite in UCLA, and throw in a high-upside USC team at that rate. If a surprise team like Arizona State (see our list of possible Cinderellas for Champ Week), Colorado or Stanford win the Pac-12 tournament, you could have 4 or 5 teams for that one cost. Oregon is the unknown as a bubble team.
March Madness is all about unlikely outcomes. What is more unlikely than your coach getting fired for multiple violations stemming from an FBI investigation… and you still advance to the Final Four.
I actually love LSU as they draw Iowa State to start their March Madness journey. They would have to become the first 6 seed in 30 years to make a Final Four, however, if they have a magical run on their mind. Below is what I had written about the Tigers earlier this season…
On February 15, LSU stood at 16th overall in the NCAA Net Rankings, but still had a long-shot odd to win a national title. The Tigers were then 15-1 to reach the Final Four and 80-1 to win a national title. Those numbers don’t reflect how this team is getting healthy at the right time. Coming out of the SEC, which has two legitimate title favorites (unlike any other conference), the Tigers will be eager to devour any other competition aside from their in-conference opponents. Point guard Xavier Pinson has brought a lightning quick dimension to the offense. And this team gets after it on the defensive end unlike most teams. They are consistently top 5 in forced turnovers, defensive efficiency, and outright steals. LSU won’t come back from large deficits with three point prayers, but they might outwork their opponent on the offensive glass to get back into a game. They are mostly young and hungry, with a few key veterans like senior Darius Days. LSU has been flirting with the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 for the past few years, and shouldn’t be overlooked as players like Days and Pinson have returned from injury and are finding a rhythm. LSU plays a marquee matchup against Kentucky in late February. This can serve as a stress test to measure how legit they are. For now, the eye test says they are much better than 80-1 to win it all.
HOST CITIES FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF MARCH MADNESS 2021-2022
The best college basketball handicappers all share one common trait: Wins! And the against the spread picks by collegebasketballeyetest.com have had a successful 2021-2022 season. Every Saturday, Matty D. shares his picks on Twitter on the hashtag #SuspectSpreadsSaturday. The phrase alerts fans about which Vegas spreads look suspect, or questionable.
During the regular season, this website boasted a 70-49 record against the spread. That’s a winning percentage of 59%.
Unfortunately, the tide turned during March Madness. Handicapper Matty D. went a woeful 4-10 with his published picks during the NCAA Tournament (below). The good news is that he spotted two large underdogs (+7 or greater) who won their games outright. The winning selections are in below below.
Looking for the best long-shots to win March Madness?CLICK HERE!
My record against the spread this season is 70-49-2 as of March 7, 2022.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS FOR FIRST/SECOND ROUND OF THE TOURNAMENT:
These picks appear in order of confidence level, from the lowest confidence pick at 12 all the way down to the most confident pick at number one.
14. Delaware Hens +15.5 vs. Villanova 13. Longwood Lancers +16.5 vs. Tennessee 12. Providence Friars -2.5 vs. South Dakota State 11. Davidson +1.5 vs. Michigan State 10. UCLA -13.5 vs. Akron 9. Arkansas -5.5 vs. Vermont 8. *New Mexico State +7 vs. UCONN 7. LSU -4 vs. Iowa State 6. Norfolk State +21.5 vs. Baylor 5. *Richmond Spiders +10.5 vs. Iowa 4. Loyola -1.5 vs. Ohio State 3. UAB +8.5 vs. Houston 2. V-Tech +1.5 vs. Texas 1. USC -1.5 vs. Miami
My final record ATS for 2021-2022 including the tournament was 74-59-2 (56%).
Honorable mention: If you are a fan of Big Ten basketball, a 3 team money line parlay with Indiana, Wisconsin and Illinois could make sense. Each team will fluctuate between a 4 to 7 point favorite, but could all win a close game. If you like Indiana, they sit in a similar position as a small favorite against Wyoming in the play-in game.
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My bracket is nuts but these are the crazy upsets I could actually see happening. #LSU stops the streak for 6 seeds in an incredible rally without Will Wade. UAB solidifies Conference USA as America’s fav underdog conference, but falls to #UCLA in the title game. #MarchMadnesspic.twitter.com/4RfPzgqER0
The collegebasketballeyetest.com bracket features a 12 seed in the national title game.
Matty D’s Philosophy for College Basketball Picks Against the Spread
Just like a Thursday or Friday in mid-March, a Saturday offers the widest sample size of games to choose from. If you’re a college basketball fan, you’re probably familiar with the power 5 schools. If you’re a better, it’s also good to get familiar with a few mid-major conferences. For example, I have gotten cozy with the Conference USA and American conferences over the years. This familiarity helped me go undefeated with 7 correct picks (and one tie) in the selections below.
#SuspectSpreadsSaturday: Take #Baylor -8, Providence +6.5, Murray State -3.5, LA Tech +9.5, #WVU +3.5, Northern Iowa +3.5, +WKY +2.5, Memphis +5.5, #Zags -8
Underdogs like Providence and Western Kentucky proved their worth early in the season.
My rule is to always bet any 6 point (or more) underdog to cover the first half. If and when an underdog challenges a favorite, it’s normally off of adrenaline and a lack of familiarity in the first half. I would always wager a dollar amount equal to, or slightly more than, the entire point line for the game. I would also traditionally bet 10-30% of that dollar amount on the money line. If I really believe that a 6 point underdog will win the game, I might bet 30% of my point line bet on the money line. For example, if I bet $10 on Providence to cover a 6.5 point spread, I would bet $3 on them to win the game outright. The money-line odds in that situation would be somewhere in the ballpark of 2-1 or 3-1. The advantage to being able to play on sports betting apps is that you don’t have to pay the traditional $5 or $10 minimums per bets at the physical casino. This helps betting on a budget. On FanDuel’s app you can make a minimum bet of 9 cents whereas DraftKings offers a 10 cent minimum.
If you or someone you know is struggling to set limits with sports betting, help is available.
Matty D’s Running Tally of ATS Picks for College Basketball Season
Here is a running tally of the college basketball sports betting picks for the 2021-2022 season with the newest up top.
I’m 11-4-1 #ATS so far this season, so beware my #SuspectSpreadsSaturday are due for losses! That said, tomorrow I’m taking Auburn+14 at Neb, BYU-5.5 at Creighton, #Mizzou +25 at #Kubball and Zona-2 at Illinois. Those underdog spreads maybe deserved but not sustainable. #RoadTrip
Read about 5 value picks to win the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship from a website that produced 5 of 6 long-shot picks last season.
Last season, this website identified 6 value picks to win the tournament at an average of 392-1 odds. Five of those teams made the tournament and one of those teams made the Final Four after starting the season as a 50-1 underdog.
Watch Matty D’s prediction for this season below and get your hedging hat on in March!
The favorite of the underdogs is Louisiana Tech, starting the season at 200-1.
Big man Kenny Lofton Jr. is a big reason why the Bulldogs are a good value bet. He led the USA Men’s Basketball U19 team to a Gold performance this summer. His game resembles the girth and footwork of other college basketball legends, such as Glen “Big Baby” Davis. Watch some of Lofton Jr’s highlights from the summer in the link below. And be sure to see the other 4 picks as great futures values in our season preview.
How and When to Hedge College Basketball Futures Odds
It’s the great debate. That is, at least in sports books around late March. “Hey, I have XYZ team at 80-1 to win a title. Now that they’re in the Sweet 16, should I start hedging?” said every amateur bettor in this position, ever (even if to himself).
So, what’s the best answer?
Like everything else in 2020-2021, there is no simple answer. However, below is a great case study to help structure our debate…
Futures odds listed in January of 2021 at a William Hill Sports Book.
Best Time to Pick College Basketball Futures Values
Let’s simulate a bettor making futures picks at the start of the season with $100 bucks. Or, in this case, $108 to be exact. In November when these picks are made, there are naturally some good values. For example, the Houston Cougars out of the American Athletic Conference were 50-1. Although they play in a non-power 5 school, Houston would ascend into the AP Top 10 throughout that season. The team’s value increased to 12-1 by February.
So when do you hedge? Should you sell a ticket that doubled in value on a secondary market, such as PropSwap? If you had two future tickets like it, and sold one on ProSwap, that would be considered hedging your bet.
When to Hedge College Basketball Futures
Let’s fast forward. Now that games have been played and you can use your eye test to analyze teams, who do you like? In our case study, the longest shot odd of North Texas (above) is having a difficult year. Meanwhile, in its conference, UAB and Western Kentucky are piecing together a quality resume. In fact, it’s within the realm of possibilities that one of those teams get an at-large bid. And so, instead of throwing out the North Texas bet that could win $10,000, we hedge it by also investing in the other in-conference rivals. This way, it becomes a statistically likelihood the bettor will have a Conference USA team in March Madness.
See Western Kentucky and UAB below.
A second round of futures value bets are made with $100 after watching the first half of the season.
You can see that for just $3 dollars and $4 dollars respectively, the odds are probably around 95% at this point that the better will have the Conference USA team among its roster of teams in the actual March Madness bracket. Did we mention this was betting on a budget?
And so at this point the bettor would have 13 teams in play. We are conceding that 2-4 of those teams won’t make the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (let’s say two Conference USA teams in addition to one other). So let’s say that 10 teams will be in the tournament and for $200 the bettor can himself to win at least $1,000 in those ten scenarios. And so the next question may be: When would he start hedging if he acknowledges Gonzaga and Baylor look far-and-away like the nation’s best teams (at +350 and 6-1 for their respective futures).
How to Hedge Your Bets on Selection Sunday
Back to reality, on this particular season North Texas did win its conference tournament. And so the bettor brings into the tournament a $10,000 lottery ticket. Should he hedge by immediately taking the opponent of North Texas? Continue reading to review some specific strategies to consider, each with their own nickname, for betting futures on a budget during March Madness.
Let’s say that four of the futures bets made in November land in one region during March. At face value, this could look like a horrible outcome for the budget bettor. However, it you change your mindset as the investor, it could work for you. Let’s say that Texas, Houston, Colorado and West Virginia all entered the same region. Instead of seeing the National Title game, or ever the Final 4 itself, as the climax of the tournament, that person would just have to move up its timeline for the tournament climax. The climax may actually be when all of those teams have an opportunity to cover the spread on the first two days. Or, the climax might be a money line parlay on all of those teams winning outright in the field of 32. Either way, a crowded region should immediately have the bettor move up the finish line in his mind. A textbook parlay in this scenario would be to take the 4 teams to cover a first round spread to win at 10-1. It might also be worth lookin at what factor a money line parlay pays. It can be typed in before canceling the bet on a kiosk. On the flip side, a reverse haymaker wheel could make sense as an insurance policy. For example, two team pairs of underdogs could be bet on in a rotation to hedge two real losses happening for Texas, Houston, Colorado and West Virginia.
Bracketology example from January 22, 2021 courtesy Joe Lunardi/ESPN
In terms of hedging futures, there will likely be a situation where 2 or 3 of the preseason futures teams are in one eighth of a bracket. In this case it wouldn’t make sense to hedge so that more than three teams are covered. For example in this eighth of a bracket above, an ideal sweet 16 matchup would be the two futures (Colorado and Houston) against each other in the sweet 16. Chasing both UNC and Texas State on futures here might muddy the water too much with losses. Perhaps a very small amount on UNC to win a title (because their final 4 odds will likely be in the 6-1 ballpark) and short the high value Texas State single bet as a lone insurance policy.
Investing in Short, Mid-size, or Long-range College Basketball Futures
With the overview example, this person might have 6 teams in the tournament. Especially if those are high value tickets, the plays has to be hedged in some way: Let’s call it long, single, or mid-sized. In the hypothetical scenario that his North Texas ticket draws Florida State in a 14 seed matched up against a 3, he might go one of three ways. In the long example, he would simply take Florida State as a title contender at 20-1. And so this could become a line in the bracket that he just commits to and invests in, depending on the winner. Betting $100 on Florida State at 20-1 would guarantee that he would have a 1 in 32 shot of winning at least $2,000 for $105 invested ($2,000 if FSU wins title, $10,000 for North Texas). The mid-sized play in this hypothetical would be taking Florida State to win the region. That bet would be roughly one quarter of the title future. So Florida State might be 5-1 to win this region, although they’re more likely to be 4-1. And so betting $25 at 4-1 would pay $100 and, again, guarantee that some investment survives and advances into the field of 32. A short term play would be to just focus on the single game between North Texas and Florida State. It would be easy to just root for North Texas to cover a 13.5 point spread. Another tempting short term play (although one that’s rarely advisable) would be to bet heavy on the chalk. Florida State might be -750ML in this hypothetical, so the bettor would have to put up $150 to win $20 bucks (and profit $15 from his original $5 bet on North Texas).
Standing by to Wait-and-See which Seed Starts Growing in March Madness
There’s no shame is standing by to watch the first two days of the tournament to see who has truly brought their A+ game. We will learn a lot about these teams as we see them live in action. Many of the nagging injuries would be proven a hindrance or a non-factor. If you have high value future bets that have made it to March Madness, that could be an excuse to save money by not betting a single game itself. For example, this bettor might have 6 seed Colorado squaring off against 11 seed Louisville. If Louisville wins the game outright, perhaps it’s time for the bettor to take the Cardinals to win the region or the title. Besides, he bet Colorado because he thinks they’re a good team, so by default he would have to like Louisville if they won this first round matchup.
College Basketball Futures Values Available Midseason
Especially this year, the sports books are currently loaded with people (either in person or online) focused on the NFL Playoffs. This was a historic year where the Super Wildcard Weekend was rolled out for the NFL. It resulted in wall-to-wall football. There were two bonus games this season and fans got their fix. As more casinos slowly welcome more betters to the books for football, the college basketball landscape is quickly coming together. “Bubble teams” are digging bigger holes for themselves. Underdogs for a tournament bid are solidifying their unexpected resumes to get into the dance. And that’s where you can find some amazing values right now while few people are paying attention to these lines.
College basketball betting on a budget
I am your average fan. I own a small business. I am not a high roller throwing around large sums of money at these bets. I am a value player. I enjoy “investing” in the futures preseason and rooting for those teams to make the tournament. By that standard, $100 goes a long way for me. At the start of the season, I broke a hundred bucks into a few teams with a rule of winning at least a thousand dollars. If and when those teams make the tournament, I would re-invest again on their odds to reach a final four. This way, I am set up for the best case scenario (4 of my teams reach the final 4). Also, I can wager a small amount on the worst-case-scenario, and recoup some of my money if I am historically bad.
3 midseason college basketball values to invest in
At the start of the season, I took a flyer on Colorado, West Virginia, Houston, Seton Hall, Rutgers and North Texas. Colorado remains the one great value that I see. The Buffs have been spotted in January at anywhere from 75-1 to 175-1. Senior point guard McKinley Wright IV is the most underrated player in America. He should absolutely be on the midseason Wooden Watch for the best player, but is not. Watch how Wright closes games. I love a veteran point guard headed into the tournament with a chip on his shoulder.
The second team I am watching as a possible value is Minnesota. I lament not jumping on them early on. Marcus Carr is one of the country’s best closers. His step back jumper is un-guardable. And in an era where the face of many rosters changes from year to year with one-and-dones, the face of the Gophers has changed with stellar transfer players. Utah transfer Both Gach and Drake big man Liam Robbins are really great compliments to an already talented roster. The Gophers will take their lumps in a historically great Big 10 season. However, I look for them to be a very dangerous value hitting the tournament somewhere in the 25-1 to 40-1 territory. That would break down to a 6-1 or 10-1 futures bet to reach the Final 4. That would be attractive. It would be even more interesting if they end up as a 6 seed, a slot that hasn’t reached the Final 4 since the early 1990s with the Fab Five.
This is a wacky time of year when you can catch some crazy discrepancies & values on #collegehoops. Until NFL is over, the scrutiny of these lines won't be there. If you're #sportsbettingonabudget like me, a friendly reminder to shop around. I found UCONN at 150-1 yesterday! pic.twitter.com/7EowNEUPR1
Lastly, a team that I love the value for is UCONN. Barring a total collapse, they have already punched their NCAA Basketball Tournament ticket with the legwork done in (their return to) a mediocre Big East. The Huskies came roaring back from an 18 point deficit at Marquette this winter. They then handled business against Butler and Depaul. The USC win from earlier this season gets better-and-better, as the Trojans are putting together a respectable resume themselves. As of mid-January, UCONN’s only loss was by two points to top 10 team Creighton. Unbelievably, they were spotted at a sports book at 150-1 to win the title.
Movers and shakers in the college basketball futures market
Setting my personal picks aside, there are some interesting lines in the college basketball futures arena. According to Vegas Insider, Drake is 25-1 to win it all. That’s some high level respect for the Missouri Valley Conference team. Let’s see if that’s a misprint. At the same number is Kentucky. The Wildcats are probably the most volatile bet you can make, considering their unreal skid to start the season. A recent performance against the Florida Gators had Kentucky looking like, Kentucky again. They’re 25-1 to win it all as of writing this. Richmond was an early season darling because of its veteran starting 5. They sit at 60-1 if you still like that team after they’ve left the top 25. Oklahoma State has the consensus first overall pick in the NBA draft (Cade Cunningham) and is 100-1. That’s never a bad combo. Gonzaga remains the house favorite at around 3-1 with its challengers like Iowa, Baylor, Villanova, Creighton and Wisconsin all flirting with the single digits (ie 7-1 or 9-1).
In a “normal year,” this would be the time of the season where college basketball teams are just now getting into conference play. However, there have already been some critical in-conference games that have been played by January 5, 2021. San Francisco already had its crack at blemishing Gonzaga’s perfect record, Texas embarrassed KU in Lawrence, and Northwestern has made itself a tournament team with strong play at the start of the Big 10 schedule.
Here are some of my observations from the last month or so of play.
Gonzaga poised to runaway with NCAA Championship
Right now Gonzaga looks like the Dream Team. And I am not exaggerating. Look at the recent games they played against Iowa and Virginia. A 20+ point loss looks respectable from Virginia. (They are like the Croatia in this metaphor). And Iowa was beat wire-to-wire by Gonzaga. Their 11 point loss on paper is different from what we saw on TV. Gonzaga has something they have not had, perhaps ever. Jalen Suggs has the type of swagger of a top 5 NBA pick. He is great. And he knows it. You’d have to think back to Adam Morrison to envision the type of game-changer that Suggs can be. And, Suggs is just a freshman surrounded by all time great Gonzaga players such as Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, and Joel Ayayi. The fact that Gonzaga landed stud transfer Andrew Nembhard is just evidence that the rich get richer. Sure, Baylor could give Gonzaga a great game if/when they play in a NCAA Championship game. I don’t believe that regular season game will be rescheduled, because there is far too much hype to build on for that to be the title game all broadcasts “tease ahead” to. Alas, Gonzaga is laughable at this moment as a 3 1/2 -to- 1 favorite to win the title. Would you take a bet on the USA Dream Team at 3 to 1? Because that’s what we are starting to watch from Gonzaga. Their WAC conference schedule wins may be taken for granted in January and February, but don’t forget what they looked like against Kansas, Iowa, and Virginia when it comes to March.
Midseason departures shake up College Basketball’s Top 10
In my preseason prediction video, I picked West Virginia and Houston among a shortlist of great value bets. Each team has slowly progressed into the top 10. However, each team has also lost a star player here midseason. Houston’s Caleb Mills has stepped away this past week from the team, citing personal reasons. His status for returning is uncertain. Mills was the pre-season pick as player of the year among American Athletic Conference beat writers. However, most recently in the team’s loss against Tulsa, Mills was coming off the bench. The Cougars rebounded well in a win on the road against a feisty SMU squad. However, it will be tough to replace Mills’s ability to create a basket late in games. Houston has no shortage of wing scorers, but Mills is not the type of offensive firepower you want to lose when you have championship aspirations. The hope, of course, is that his personal situation is not too serious and that the team culture can rally in his absence.
As a fan of Houston this year, I was bummed to see Caleb Mills leave. I'm hoping everything is okay for him. From a hoops standpoint, there were some +'s of getting more size down low, down the stretch (at SMU). Watch Reggie Chaney's contributions here: https://t.co/MHfeRZGJYy
West Virginia lost Oscar Tshiebwe and he’s not coming back. The Karl Malone watch list candidate (i.e. best power forward candidate) left the team after a shockingly lower-than-expected productivity in the first half of the season. West Virginia quickly transitioned to a smaller team that put up more three point attempts. As this transition took place in real time, West Virginia lost its first game without Tshiebwe to Oklahoma. On TV there were moments where this game looked like a 3-point-shooting contest. The Mountaineers lost. Afterwards, they played another tough road contest against a soon-to-be-bubble-team: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were leading heavily heading into the 2nd half and throughout the 3rd quarter. Then something clicked. The shots started going in. In March, it will be interesting to see if the perimeter shooters like Sean McNeil, Miles McBride, and Taz Sherman meet the moment. Emmitt Matthews Jr. also had a great game on defense and in transition during this pivotal Oklahoma State win. It will be interesting to see if he becomes an X-Factor for their success.
The Big 10 is the best basketball conference ever
I am not a “hot takes” writer. I don’t like making bold predictions in order to get clicks. But if you watch college basketball, you realize that this Big 10 is the best college basketball conference ever. In a season where conference league play will look more like an intra-team scrimmage (as COVID-19 took away offseason, preseason, and all traditional dress rehearsals), Big 10 teams will hit March Madness as dangerous as ever. Just look at the landscape. Michigan is undefeated and blossoming with young talent and transfers to fill what little gaps remained from 2019-2020. Northwestern is winning big games. Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin came into the season as championship hopefuls and remain that. Rutgers has carried on its success from 2019-2020. The Scarlet Knights have basically the same roster as the one that shocked national onlookers last season. Indiana is playing for a bid. And Michigan State is fighting for its life to stay in the top 25 while (Survivor style) battling its allies in each challenge. The big men remain a mainstay of this conference. Marcus Carr looks like a closer who can win clutch games for a Final 4 team (at Minnesota). I didn’t even mention Purdue, which has two giants who play consecutive sessions at center. The ACC has had some great years with double digit teams making the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament. But have we ever seriously had this many legitimate Final 4 contenders from one conference? And the irony is that none of these teams will snag a 1 seed, which is a crime. The conference is canabalizing itself. Joe Lunardi’s bracketology on January 5th shows all four 2 seeds as Big 10 teams!
Joe Lunardi’s bracketology predictions on January 5, 2020 show four Big 10 teams as 2 seeds. College basketball blogger Matty D. dips into his notebook for a midseason report.
At the time that this blog article is being published, the pirates are pausing basketball play due to COVID-19 concerns. First and foremost, we hope that the student athletes are safe, healthy, as well as coaches and staff.
Sandro Mamukelashvili headlines a returning class for Seton Hall that is way too far overlooked. If you look back to last season, you’ll remember the game that turned the pirates season around was against then 7th ranked Maryland without Myles Powell and without Sandro, compassionately referred to as “Mamu.”
Jared Rhoden and Myles Cale stepped up, among a core nucleus of other talented players. Shavar Reynolds is one of the most fun on-ball defending point guards to watch in college basketball. They add veteran point guard transfer Bryce Aiken from Harvard and retain 7+ footer Ike Obiagu. Sophomore Tyrese Samuel from Montreal also showed flashes last year as a somewhat raw but super athletic freshman. Watch for this nucleus to return with something to prove and a major chip on their shoulder given the low expectations.
Did you really need an excuse to listen to Gus Johnson call game highlights?
I mean, look at the first preseason top 25 list from the associated press. You have to scroll down to the very bottom to see that they only got 2 votes! I guess two beat reporters have some idea of what’s going on and are actually watching the games.
The Seton Hall Pirates enter the 2020-2021 season as 100-1 underdogs to win a national championship.
College Basketball Futures Best Values
BY MATT DE SARLE
Like you, I am always curious to know the future odds for teams winning a national championship. My curiosity spikes right before the season begins. That’s when I am convinced that past performance dictates future results. And, as the disclaimers at the end of financial services commercials say, that cause-effect is never guaranteed.
However, the past performance from these 5 teams has me intrigued. If you’re reading this blog for the first time, welcome to the College Basketball Eye Test. As always, I am going to discuss characteristics that I see. A team’s personality dictates its winning potential. Yes, KenPom.com is outstanding at tracking metrics. Here, we track warning signs that are visible. You can see when a team is selfish, timid, lacking leadership, soft. On the contrary, it’s so enjoyable to watch a team that navigates adversity well, shows aggression, and doesn’t flinch when pushed. Here are my five times to consider putting a small wager on for a huge payout.
South Florida Bulls Basketball
5. Odds 750/1 in Preseason
The Bulls return nearly everyone from the 2018-2019 campaign. Alexis Yetna was on a lot of people’s radar as a possible breakout star. But he suffered a season ending injury as this season begun. As devastating of news as that is, the Bulls still have a lot of potential. And now they have a cause to rally around, and Yetna is still a young player with a bright future.
This team popped on my radar as it ran Memphis out of its gym last season. The Bulls got off to a 20 point lead by ripping the ball away, running the fast break, and banging threes with no conscience. Coach Brian Gregory has an impressive resume that includes leading a competitive George Tech team in the ACC and serving as an assistant to Tom Izzo at Michigan State. This team has the talent, identity, and leadership necessary to still make the tournament without Yetna. If they make the tournament and you have a 750-to-1 ticket (a $5 bet would pay $3,750) in your pocket, be sure to hedge your bet by taking its opponent as well. You will likely have a dangerous team heading into the field of 32.
Headlined by brothers Kaleb and Andre Wesson, this team is very interesting under the leadership of coach Chris Holtmann. Holtmann had immediate success at Ohio State, after also ushering a transitional era after Brad Stevens departure from Butler. There is a solid core here with a lot of guards who will compete for playing time and relevance. Holtmann should be trusted to pull the strings successfully. In a conference that hasn’t won a championship since 2000, and that program in Michigan State prepped to get all the attention, Ohio State may just slip under the radar until a Sweet 16 berth.
Give me Gregg Marshall and 400-to-1 odds any year.
Colorado Buffs Basketball futures
2. Odds 250/1 in the preseason
Tad Boyle is one of college basketball’s most under-appreciated coaches. Boyle has made 7 of 8 postseasons in his Colorado tenure. He has also supported the development of future pros, sending rotation-ready guys like Spencer Dinwiddie into the league. Last year was the first time in Boyle’s tenure that Colorado did not make the CBI, NIT, or NCAA tournament. However, a roster laced with underclassmen developed, and you could see it during the PAC-12 tournament. They advanced to the semifinals and gave #1 seed Washington a run for their money. Tyler Bey is a Shawn Marion in the making. The Colorado Buffs can run the floor, clog you up, and play any discipline they want. They’ve been surging in the PAC-12 while their peers like Arizona, UCLA and USC are amidst major changes (even some identity crisis). This is a conference where it was recently Utah’s turn for a tournament bid, Arizona State’s turn, and now it’s the Buffs turn. When the Buffs come to eat in the tourney, they’re arriving hungry.
Seton Hall Basketball Futures Odds
50/1 in the preseason
Seton Hall might be the sexiest of all sexy picks, so I won’t dwell too much. The bottom line is that Myles Powell may be the nation’s player of the year. If he does that, it should be in the fashion of a Jimmer Fredette or a Buddy Hield. He is a score-first guard but can distribute well. Sophomore wing Jared Rhoden showed flashes last year as a freshmen. If he and Myles Cale can be the complimentary swingmen they’re capable of, this roster has no shortage of dogs who can defend and rebound down low. Head coach Kevin Willard was rumored to take on jobs like UCLA and Virginia Tech this offseason, but doubled down on his pirates by declaring himself disinterested in those (perhaps) higher profile jobs. Willard will serve a two game suspension to start this season for transfer tampering. All in all, I am shocked that this team is a nebulous 50-1 wager headed into the season.
Here are 4 of my top 10 high value college basketball futures heading into the 2019-20 season! pic.twitter.com/Wq99w29LcW
College Basketball Eye Test 