Tag Archives: sports betting

NCAAB Best Betting Values for College Basketball Futures in 2026

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Watching Ohio State get upset on a national stage on New Year’s Eve reminded me to keep an eye on the best current college basketball future values nationwide. Betters who had a futures ticket on any team other than the Buckeyes felt pretty good waking up on New Year’s Day with the odds-on favorite having gone down the night before. It might not solve that hang-over, but that ticket likely shot up 15-25% in value.

BY MATTY D.

For example, I had a ticket for Oregon to win a national football title at 8-1 before the night began. After the Miami Hurricanes beat the odds-on favorite for a national title, the Ohio State Buckeyes, that same ticket became 6-1 (theoretically increasing in value 25%).

Best College Basketball Future Values to Start the New Year

Across college basketball, this is a time of year when many important trends and storylines are overlooked. Between the NFL season reaching a peak, the holidays, and the college football championships coming into focus, some great bargains are live on Sportsbooks.

For example, the return of Kentucky big man Jayden Quaintance and solid play of another injured returner, Jailand Lowe, has not yet corrected Kentucky’s odds to consider them a favorite. The Wildcats are still listed today as 9-1 odds to even reach a Final Four on FanDuel SportBook.

Looking for even longer odds chances to snag a crazy underdog pick for March Madness 2026?
Click here to see more of my favorite futures values and underdogs for a NCAAB Championship.

Odds for Big 10 Teams to Win a Title Still Show Long-shot Potential

Despite having the odds-on favorite to win the national title at this point, Michigan, The Big 10 surprisingly has a lot of upside value for teams that are at least 15-1 to reach the Final Four itself.

Iowa sits around 25-1 to reach a Final Four as 2026 begins.

Meantime, Nebraska remains around 20-1 to reach a Final Four. These generous odds are given, despite the fact that the Cornhuskers haven’t lost a game in 2025 during its fall or early winter stretch of games.

People who are actually investing in physical tickets for national championships should hold off on this idea for now, but consider a Big 10 Conference championship bundled future. You can bet on a particular conference to win a championship. The odds for the Big 10 are going to be skewed towards Michigan, who by itself is a 4-1 favorite to win a title. However, if the Wolverines were to lose, the Big 10 Conference might suddenly become a bargain, loaded with low-cost but realistic teams to make a surprise Final 4 run.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Harvesting the Best Tourney Resume No one is Talking About

Even as Nebraska knocked off top 10 ranked Michigan State in dramatic fashion in a January 2nd home game, the oddsmakers kept disrespecting the Huskers. Nebraska stood as a 20-1 long-shot to make a Final Four on FanDuel, despite having one of America’s best (and still undefeated) records. Joe Lunardi’s December 30th bracketology had them as a 4 seed in the West Region, but Monday’s AP Top 25 voting might have them as the 4th best ranked team in the nation.

It’s hard to believe that head coach Fred Hoiberg is already in his seventh season as head man at Nebraska, after his “mayoral” status at the Hilton Coliseum with Iowa State. However, his family legacy is continuing in Lincoln this season in legendary fashion. He is coaching his son to a prestine record, overseeing a program that his grandfather coached for 9 seasons starting in the 1950s. This team is loaded with storylines that any TV producer at CBS Sports would salivate over during March Madness. It could be time that you put a shekel on the huskers.

LSU Basketball Worth Watching at 150-1 to Win a Title

I am not saying that you need to rush out there and bet the house on the Tigers, but this is a team worth watching at this point of the season. As of this moment, the Tigers are predicted by Joe Lunardi to be a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have a solid crop of sophomores led by a head coach, Matt McMahon, perhaps best known for coaching Ja Morant to some tournament wins with the upstart Murray State Racers in 2019. LSU has four scorers averaging anywhere between 13 and 16 per game, which is always a good recipe for a balanced offense. Point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. (7.1 assists to 1.8 turnover ratio) has done a good job navigating the Tigers to a 12-1 record before the conference schedule really kicks in.

Click here to follow LSU basketball on Twitter

Arizona and Iowa are also two teams whose odds I am watching closely. Listed below is a simple chart comparing NCAAB Futures on two major Sportsbooks.

Best Underdog Future Values to Find Under the Christmas Tree

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College basketball future tickets for an underdog team to win the national championship in 2026 could make for a perfect stocking stuffer for 2025. Here are a few tickets I’d love to see under my Christmas tree.

BY MATTY D.

Big 10 offers ample opportunities for high value underdogs in NCAAB Futures market

Let’s start our search for future values in the Big 10 Conference, where the league is making a sound argument as being the nation’s best league, with multiple different suitors for a Final Four bid. Nebraska is the poster child for the high ceiling teams within this group. In mid-November, you could find the Cornhuskers around 250-1 to win it all. Now, after winning its first 12 games and scoring key resume win against Illinois, K-State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Creighton, this team is still a bargain at 60-1.

Here are some more Big 10 teams to consider for your portfolio. Michigan State stands at 20-1, Illinois 22-1, Iowa at 100-1, and Indiana at 120-1. Those odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and posted on Christmas Eve.

Of course, Michigan stands alone at the top with the biggest amount of respect given in the futures market currently. They are +450 to win it all. That’s at least twice as expensive as any other team in the nation.

Which favorite is the best future value to win the 2026 college basketball championship?

With the Wolverines sitting at +450, that leaves a fleet of still great value picks around that 10-1 neighborhood. Arizona is +850, UCONN 10-1, and Duke 11-1. That group is followed by Iowa State, Purdue, and Houston at 12-1 or 13-1.

From that group, I would choose Arizona and Duke. In fact, I could easily see these teams steamrolling the competition to represent the West and East regions respectively in the national championship game itself. Having two tickets at +850 and 11-1 with that championship matchup together would be a good problem to have.

If those odds aren’t cheap enough for your liking, consider this. This is also the time of the sports calendar year where NFL teams are starting to separate themselves and either pass the eye test, or not. While teams like the Buccaneers, Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs are all suffering some unlikely knockout punches, teams like the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers are showing some incredible value.

For example, a $5 bet on the 49ers to win the NFC combined with Arizona to win the championship would net $332.

Super sleeper underdogs who could compete in the 2026 March Madness tournament

As they say, “get in the dance and anything can happen.”

Here are some crazy underdogs that I am keeping an eye on at the 100-1 and lower vicinity.

Please note that most of these teams would have to win their own conference tournament championship to enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

St. Mary’s is 250-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

The Gaels actually have a recent history of making the tournament as an at large team, thanks in part to its conference mate Gonzaga’s gravitational pull as a national power plus its holding its own against those Bulldogs. This year, St. Mary’s returns an impressive veteran core that includes Harry Wessels and Paulius Murauskas, plus super sophomores Mikey Lewis and Andrew McKeever. McKeever, a 7 foot 2 center from California is averaging nearly a double double after 13 games (11-2 in that stretch).

Utah State 200-1 to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

Someone is coming out of the Mountain West grandfathered in as the annual 7 through 11 seed, and this veteran laden bunch is as good a bet as any to win a few games.

Before conference play, Utah State Aggies quietly built a strong résumé for bettors seeking high-quality future value picks. The Aggies paired legitimate wins over programs like VCU and Tulane with dominant blowouts of Davidson, Charlotte, and Colorado State, showing both floor and ceiling. That blend of NET-relevant victories and decisive margins signaled a team undervalued nationally entering league play.

South Florida Bulls at +280 to win the American Conference

Before conference play fully shapes the market, the South Florida Bulls profile as an appealing future value bet under head coach Bryan Hodgson. Coming from the Nate Oats coaching tree, Hodgson emphasizes pace, spacing, and high-volume three-point shooting. His track record of rapid turnarounds and top-50 offenses suggests South Florida’s relentless attack could outperform preseason expectations. You cannot find South Florida on futures markets just yet, so we will leave the article here with a nasty haymaker pick. If you want to play this team, you can grab them at +280 to win their conference and add to that position if/when they make the tournament that way.

Sweet 16 Betting Breakdown: Thursday’s Best Against the Spread Picks

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Looking for smart betting picks for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups? This article breaks down four key NCAA Tournament games, with against-the-spread predictions for Michigan vs. Auburn, Michigan State vs. Ole Miss, BYU vs. Alabama, and Arizona vs. Duke. See which underdogs have value and which favorites are poised to cover based on matchups that pass the eye test.

It’s funny how reunions of both friends and foes are a constant theme of the college basketball tournament. Caleb Love will, again, be battling with his former in-conference rival, Duke. As you know, Love played for years at UNC where there were some classic clashes with the Blue Devils.

Click here to read 6 more trends fixed as annual traditions during March Madness

Michigan +8.5 vs. Auburn College Basketball Prediction, Pick
Michigan enters this Sweet 16 matchup with one of the biggest frontcourts still standing. Auburn might be the higher seed, but the Wolverines can lean on their size and physicality to dictate the terms of this game. The rebounding edge is where this could tilt. Second-chance points, long possessions—those all benefit Michigan’s style of play. Auburn will try to run, but Michigan has enough discipline and toughness to weather that storm. It’s a tall task to win outright, but getting eight-and-a-half points here looks appealing.

Michigan State -3.5 vs. Ole Miss College Basketball Prediction, Pick
It’s March. And that means one thing: Tom Izzo. His teams tend to tighten up their execution just when other squads start fraying. This version of the Spartans is classic Izzo—experienced guards, versatile forwards, and an edge in physical matchups like this one. Ole Miss has impressed with some big wins to get here, but Michigan State’s defense and discipline should win out in the late possessions. Laying 3.5 with Izzo in March? That always looks good to the eye.

BYU +4.5 vs. Alabama College Basketball Prediction, Pick

This is the most intriguing game of the night for me. Alabama is deep and dangerous, no doubt. But BYU is one of the few teams in the country that can go possession-for-possession with them and keep up the scoring. The Cougars have sharpshooters at every position and play with a pace and confidence that won’t shrink against the Crimson Tide’s press and length. In any 5-on-5 set, BYU can match Alabama bucket for bucket. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cougars win this one outright, and grabbing 4.5 points in a shootout like this looks like a lock.

Arizona +8.5 vs. Duke College Basketball Prediction, Pick

This is where things get tricky. Arizona has the physical tools and offensive firepower to give Duke problems—especially in transition. The Wildcats move the ball well and know how to punish mismatches. But let’s be real: Duke is playing with an NBA showcase right now. They’ve got four, maybe five pros on the floor, and they’re all playing like it’s draft week. Arizona should keep this tight with their own versatility, but I’m not sold on them pulling it out late. Still, 8.5 points feels like too many in a game with this much top-end talent. Arizona to cover looks like a confident lean, even if the Blue Devils escape with the W.

Friday’s March Madness Games, Odds, Picks from College Basketball Eye Test

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On Thursday the Men’s College Basketball Tournament got started in fitting fashion with two underdogs looking like title contenders but now it’s time to quickly turn attention to Friday’s games. Drake and McNeese State opened eyes across the nation not only beating their power conference opponents (Missouri and Clemson respectively), but looking like a dark-horse candidate for a Final 4 run in the process.

Click here for the Ultimate College Basketball Blog Hub

Yale got yanked from the tournament. They were my lone futures underdog that didn’t survive Thursday’s action. See my top 4 remaining underdog futures by clicking here.

1. Liberty +6.5 vs. Oregon (Grade: A+)

Liberty getting 6.5 against Oregon felt like a steal, and this one tops the list for good reason. The Flames have been a tough out all year with a disciplined system and three-point shooting that can keep them in any game. Colin Porter is a jitter bug undersized point guard who is fun to watch but hard to stay in front of. Catching nearly a touchdown against an Oregon team still figuring itself out? Chef’s kiss.

2. Grand Canyon +10.5 vs. Maryland (Grade: A)

This one had “sharp” written all over it. Grand Canyon has quietly become a defensive juggernaut in their conference, and catching double digits against an up-and-down Maryland squad was just too good to pass up. Even more appealing: Terps head coach Kevin Willard is surrounded by speculation as the potential next Villanova hire. With that kind of distraction hovering over the program, 10.5 points looks even tastier.

3. UConn ML vs. Oklahoma (Grade: A-)

Taking the reigning champs on the money line at a reasonable -192 was a smart anchor to this parlay. UConn’s size, depth, and defensive prowess make them a reliable choice in high-pressure games like this one, and Oklahoma just doesn’t have the tools to match them bucket-for-bucket.

4. Marquette ML vs. New Mexico (Grade: A-)

Another safe money line pick that added stability to the slate. Marquette’s high-octane offense and Shaka Smart’s defensive scheme give them an edge over New Mexico, even if the Lobos are no slouches. Laying -166 felt like a worthy investment.

5. Baylor +1.5 vs. Mississippi State (Grade: A-)

Catching points with Baylor? Yes, please. This Bears team is deep and battle-tested, and while Mississippi State is gritty, they don’t quite have the offensive firepower to pull away. This one had “tight game decided late” written all over it—perfect for that +1.5.

6. Bryant +17.5 vs. Michigan State (Grade: A-)

Taking Bryant with the points may have raised some eyebrows, but 17.5 is a lot to cover, even for Michigan State. Bryant has enough shooters and tempo control to keep it respectable, and the Spartans haven’t exactly been lighting it up offensively this season.

HALFTIME: You’ve reached the half-way mark of this article. Bookmark your next click…

🏆 Final 4 Fan-Favorite Articles:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀

7. Iowa State -14.5 vs. Lipscomb (Grade: A-)

A big number to lay, but Iowa State’s defense can suffocate mid-majors like Lipscomb. Once the Cyclones get rolling, they’re capable of creating scoring runs that blow things open fast. This felt like a smart move, even with the wide spread.

8. Arizona -13.5 vs. Akron (Grade: B+)

Arizona has the firepower to cover this kind of spread, but Akron isn’t a pushover. This pick leaned on Arizona’s athletic edge and transition game, which can turn a close game into a rout in a matter of minutes. Solid pick, just a bit of a sweat.

9. Alabama -22.5 vs. Robert Morris (Grade: B+)

This was a swing for the fences. Alabama can certainly run it up, and Robert Morris simply doesn’t have the horses to hang, but covering 22.5 requires perfection. High upside, but some risk baked in.

10. Saint Mary’s ML vs. Vanderbilt (Grade: B)

This one was all about trusting the system. Saint Mary’s grinds teams down and controls tempo as well as anyone, but Vanderbilt is athletic enough to throw them off rhythm. Still, at -170, it was a calculated play that made sense. St. Mary’s is one of my favorite values for futures betting. Click here to see which of those underdog teams are still remaining.

11. Kentucky -10.5 vs. Troy (Grade: B-)

Kentucky should absolutely take care of business against Troy, even on a neutral court. But covering 10.5 depends on which version of the Wildcats shows up. They’ve been erratic at times, especially with young lineups, which makes this one a little dicey despite the talent gap.

12. Memphis +2.5 vs. Colorado State (Grade: C-)

This was the most volatile pick on the card. Memphis has talent, but they’re wildly inconsistent, and Colorado State is one of those fundamentally sound teams that just doesn’t beat itself. Taking Memphis here was a gut play—and the gut doesn’t always win.

Exciting Thursday Games: Betting Insights and Predictions for March Madness 2025

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The madness has arrived, and with it comes the challenge of picking winners against the spread. With upsets brewing and lines set to tempt bettors, I’m locking in my best plays for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The key? Taking value where the market gives it and, in the case of BYU and Michigan, paying a small premium on the money line to avoid sweating the points.

🏆 Final 4 Fan-Favorite Articles:
🔥 Top Injuries to Watch 🔥
🐶 5 Underrated Underdogs to Watch 🐶
🎉 6 March Madness Traditions 🎉
🏀 Sons of NBA Stars 🏀

Creighton (+2.5) vs. Louisville

This game should be an old-fashioned pick ‘em. Both teams have the talent to make a run, and I don’t see a clear favorite here. When that’s the case, I’m gladly taking the 2.5 points with Creighton, knowing they have just as much of a chance to win outright as Louisville.

High Point (+8.5) vs. Purdue

Purdue isn’t a No. 1 seed this year, but they still have the size and experience to be dangerous. That said, High Point is built to cover this spread. Their perimeter shooting and ability to speed up the pace make them a sneaky play at +8.5.

Montana (+16.5) vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin plays a slow, grinding style, which makes covering a big number like 16.5 tough. Montana should be able to keep this game within reach simply by limiting possessions and playing solid defense.

McNeese State (+7.5) vs. Clemson

McNeese is one of the strongest mid-majors in this tournament, and they match up well against Clemson. Their defense and ability to control the tempo make them a live dog here. I’ll take the 7.5 points with confidence.

BYU (Money Line, -142) vs. VCU

Rather than sweating BYU covering the spread, I’m backing them on the money line at -142. The Cougars have the edge in talent and efficiency, and I trust them to win outright without worrying about VCU sneaking in a late cover.

Georgia (+6.5) vs. Gonzaga

This isn’t the same dominant Gonzaga team we’ve seen in years past. Georgia has the athleticism to keep this one close, and they’re more than capable of hanging within 6.5 points.

Arkansas (+4.5) vs. Kansas

Kansas has been shaky down the stretch, and Arkansas has the athleticism and defensive intensity to make this a dogfight. With Kansas showing inconsistency, I’ll take the Razorbacks and the 4.5 points.

Yale (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M

The Ivy League has a history of bracket-busting, and Yale fits the mold of a team that can make things uncomfortable for a higher seed. Their methodical offense and tough defense should keep this game close, making 7.5 points an easy take.

What makes Yale one of the best overall underdogs in the tournament is their continuity and discipline. The Bulldogs don’t rely on one or two star players; they execute as a unit, making them less susceptible to off-nights from individual performers. They also control tempo exceptionally well, which forces more athletic teams into uncomfortable half-court battles. That’s a nightmare for an opponent like Texas A&M, which thrives in transition. If you’re looking for an underdog with serious long-term value, Yale deserves your attention.

Click here to check out the full top 5 underdogs worth backing for futures!

Drake (+6.5) vs. Missouri

Drake has already proven they can compete with Power Five schools. Missouri has been inconsistent, and this feels like a classic mid-major value pick. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Drake wins outright.

Beyond this game, Drake is one of the best underdog teams in the entire tournament field. The biggest reason? Bennett Stirtz. He’s the smoothest point guard in the country that no one is talking about. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent from the Kansas City area and transfers from Northwest Missouri State, where new head coach Ben McCollum has built a championship-winning culture.

McCollum’s dominance at the Division II level—where he won four national titles and posted an 81.2% career win rate—is a blueprint for success at the Division I level. His system is proven, and now he has the resources and talent to execute it on a larger stage. Expect his winning mentality and attention to detail to make Drake one of the most dangerous low seeds in the entire field.

Click here to see why Drake made my top 5 underdogs for futures!

Michigan (Money Line, -150) vs. UC San Diego

Another spot where I’m avoiding the spread and simply backing Michigan to win outright. UC San Diego is no pushover, but Michigan’s talent gap should be enough to get the job done. I’ll take the money line at -150 rather than sweating a possible tight finish.

UNC Wilmington (+15.5) vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech can score, but they also allow teams to hang around. UNC Wilmington has the offensive tools to keep this from getting out of hand, making 15.5 points too good to pass up.

This game also has a few key injuries to consider. Click here for our injury tracker.

St. John’s (-18.5) vs. Omaha

St. John’s is built to run teams out of the gym, and Omaha doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. When the Red Storm get rolling, they don’t let up, and I expect this one to be over early. Lay the 18.5 and trust the blowout.

Thursday’s Games with Huge Favorites

There are a handful of Thursday games that I’m passing on simply because the spreads are too outrageous to find real value. These include Auburn vs. Alabama State/Saint Francis, Florida vs. Norfolk State, Duke vs. American/Mount St. Mary’s, Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville, and Tennessee vs. Wofford. These matchups feature top-seeded teams against overmatched opponents, where the favorites are more than capable of running away with the game—but covering a massive number in the first round is always a gamble. While a few of these underdogs might hang around early, there’s too much risk in relying on them to keep it close for 40 minutes or expecting the favorites to stay locked in for a full blowout cover. Sometimes, the best play is no play at all.

Final Thoughts

This tournament is full of value plays, and I’m taking a mix of live underdogs and sharp money line bets to maximize profit potential. BYU and Michigan are worth paying a small premium to avoid the spread, while teams like Drake, Yale, and McNeese could all exceed expectations. If you’re looking for underdogs that can make a deep run, check out the full list of the top 5 underdogs for futures bets!

March is Here! College Basketball Picks for the First Day of the Month

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March is finally here, and with it comes the excitement of college basketball’s most crucial stretch. With conference tournaments looming and Selection Sunday approaching, every game carries weight. Let’s break down today’s key matchups and make some predictions.

Click here to see Matty D’s season record against the spread for college hoops!

Clemson (-7.5) at Virginia

Clemson has been one of the most impressive underdogs throughout the season, showing strong performances against top-tier teams. Their size and experience give them a major advantage against a Virginia squad that has struggled to find consistency. Look for Clemson to control the game on both ends and cover the 7.5-point spread.

Prediction: Clemson covers (-7.5)

Today’s odds are being provided by DraftKings Sportsbook as a reference.

Maryland (-5.5) at Penn State

Maryland is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State, but this matchup against an inconsistent Penn State team presents a great opportunity for the Terrapins to bounce back. With a stronger defensive presence and the ability to capitalize on Penn State’s lapses, Maryland should be able to win and cover the spread.

Fun fact: Maryland star Julian Reese is the brother of WNBA Star Angel Reese.
Click here to see more family ties in college hoops with sons of NBA stars!

Prediction: Maryland covers (-5.5)

Providence at UConn (-6.5)

Rivalry games are always tricky to predict. This matchup between Providence and UConn is no exception. UConn has been dominant in stretches but has shown some vulnerability. Providence, on the other hand, always plays tough in these contests. Six and a half points might be too much to lay in a rivalry battle, so this one could go either way.

Prediction: Providence covers (+6.5)

Butler at Villanova (-7.5)

Villanova looked like a tournament team just a few weeks ago, but their recent form has been shaky. The 6.5-point spread is a bit too generous for a Villanova team that hasn’t been at its best lately. Butler is fighting to finish as a .500 team this season, but just showed some feisty play against a top 10 St. John’s team. Give me the Bulldogs!

Prediction: Butler covers (+7.5)

Miami at North Carolina (-17.5)

North Carolina might be making the ultimate correction to their season in a last ditch effort to compete for an ACC (tournament) championship. However, 17.5 points is a massive spread in any conference game. While Miami has been blown out several times this season, they might be able to keep this one within reach. Still, UNC is the better team by far, and Miami’s defensive issues could make this an uphill battle for them. I am honestly staying away from this game altogether. If you need to pick this game, go with Miami!

(Of course, you should never feel like you need to make a sports betting pick. If you are struggling with a gambling addiction, help is available. For support, call 1-800-Gambler or visit this site).

Prediction: North Carolina wins, but Miami covers (+17.5)

Auburn at Kentucky (+5.5)

Auburn has been playing well, but they are due for an outright loss. Kentucky, playing at home, will have the crowd behind them and the talent to pull off the upset. Given Auburn’s recent trends and Kentucky’s potential for a big win, this could be the game where Auburn stumbles.

Prediction: Kentucky wins outright (+5.5)

March basketball is here, and the stakes are only going to get higher. Keep an eye on these games, and check back for more predictions as we get closer to tournament time!

Who is Vlogger Matty D. with College Basketball Eye Test?

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Arkansas (+1) at South Carolina

Coach John Calipari has the experience to guide Arkansas through a tough road test at South Carolina. With a tight spread, this game could come down to the wire, but Arkansas should have just enough to cover.

Prediction: Arkansas covers (+1)

Alabama (+3.5) at Tennessee

Alabama is hitting its stride at the right time, scoring at an elite level. While Tennessee is formidable at home, Alabama has a real shot to not only cover but also win outright.

Prediction: Alabama covers (+3.5) and could win outright

Oregon (-7.5) vs. USC

Oregon is coming off an inspirational comeback win against Wisconsin, and that momentum should carry over into this matchup. USC has been inconsistent, and Oregon’s depth and confidence should be enough to secure a comfortable win.

Prediction: Oregon covers (-7.5)

Houston (-13.5) vs. Cincinnati

Houston has the talent to dominate this matchup, but Cincinnati might keep it closer in the first half before the Cougars pull away late.

Prediction: Houston covers (-13.5), but not on the first-half line

Missouri (-2.5) at Vanderbilt

Missouri should be able to handle Vanderbilt on the road and still cover the 2.5-point spread. Their ability to close out games should help them secure the win.

Prediction: Missouri covers (-2.5)

Arizona State (+7.5) at Utah

Arizona State is getting too many points against a Utah team that just lost its head coach. This is the pick of the day, as Arizona State should keep this game close, if not win outright.

Prediction: Arizona State covers (+7.5) – Pick of the Day

Georgia (+4.5) at Texas

Texas tends to play close games, and Georgia is a live underdog in this spot. Expect Georgia to keep this one tight and potentially steal a win.

Prediction: Georgia covers (+4.5)

March basketball is here, and the stakes are only going to get higher. Keep an eye on these games, and check back for more predictions as we get closer to tournament time!

BYU (-10.5) vs. West Virginia

BYU has the home-court advantage and the firepower to handle West Virginia. The Mountaineers have struggled to find consistency this season, making this a prime spot for BYU to cover the double-digit spread.

Prediction: BYU covers (-10.5)

Texas A&M (+9.5) at Florida

Texas A&M plays its best basketball as an underdog, and after a surprising home loss to Vanderbilt, the Aggies will be looking for a strong response. Florida has been solid but not dominant, making this a great opportunity for Texas A&M to keep the game close and cover the spread.

Prediction: Texas A&M covers (+9.5)

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Men’s College Basketball Picks Against the Spread for February 22, 2025

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Rolling Out of Bed with College Basketball Picks

Matty D here from CollegeBasketballItest.com, and I’m back again with another round of early college basketball picks. This approach worked well for me last week, and I’m looking to keep the momentum going. Let’s dive into some suspect spreads and intriguing matchups from today’s slate.

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M is favored by 1.5 points in this matchup against Tennessee. This might come as a surprise considering I’ve been high on Texas A&M as a potential championship contender at 40 or 50 to 1 odds. However, despite my faith in the Aggies, I think Tennessee is the better team. The Vols haven’t played to their full potential over the last month, but I see this as a good spot for them. I’m taking Tennessee and the 1.5 points here.

Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Oregon is an 8.5-point underdog against Wisconsin. The Badgers have been playing strong basketball recently, but Oregon is fighting for a tournament spot, and 8.5 points is a lot to be giving up. I like Oregon to cover in this one.

Florida State vs. Louisville

Louisville is favored by 13.5 points against Florida State. The Seminoles have struggled lately, and with Louisville’s up-tempo style of play under head coach Pat Kelsey, I think they have the potential to cover the spread. They’re a top-25 team, and with their current momentum, they could handle this one convincingly.

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia

West Virginia is laying 11.5 points against Texas Tech. This is a tough game to call, especially with West Virginia missing one of its key players, Tucker DeVries, whose father, Darian DeVries, is the team’s head coach. If I had to pick, I’d lean toward West Virginia, but this might be a game to avoid altogether.

Iowa State vs. Houston

One of the marquee matchups of the day features Iowa State taking on Houston. Both teams are elite defensively and could make deep tournament runs. Surprisingly, Iowa State is getting 11.5 points. In what should be a low-scoring defensive battle, that’s a big number to be receiving. I like Iowa State to cover, especially since they might be looking for a bounce-back performance after a disappointing showing recently.

Georgia vs. Auburn

Auburn is a 16.5-point favorite against Georgia. The Bulldogs have been a tough out for some SEC teams this season, making this a tricky game. I’m staying away from this one because I don’t want to be sweating in the final moments to see if Auburn covers or not.

Clemson vs. SMU

SMU put on an offensive clinic against Notre Dame recently, so I’m surprised to see them as an underdog at home against Clemson. With SMU getting 1.5 points, I’m taking them in this spot.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas

Kansas is giving 14.5 points to Oklahoma State, and I don’t think they should be laying that many points to anyone right now. The Jayhawks have been inconsistent, especially during their trip out west against Utah and BYU. I’ll probably stay away from this game entirely, but if I had to pick, I’d take Oklahoma State with the points.

Florida vs. LSU

Florida is favored by 10.5 points against LSU. The Tigers are one of the few SEC teams unlikely to make the tournament, while Florida is in contention for a No. 1 seed. I believe Florida can cover the spread here, as they have much more at stake.

Kentucky vs. Alabama

This game was an instant classic when these two teams faced off in Lexington on MLK weekend. Now, Kentucky is a 10.5-point underdog as they travel to Alabama. That spread seems a bit high, but I’ll be holding off on making a final call until I see more developments.

St. Mary’s Visits Gonzaga as a 6 Point Favorite

St. Mary’s and Gonzaga battled things out about a month ago with St. Mary’s hosting as a slight underdog. In a bizarre display of many missed free throws, the Gaels survived an ugly contest. I just think Gonzaga is overdue for a good showing here at home and a quality win to solidify a tournament berth as a lower seed than we’re used to seeing the Bulldogs. My guess is that they’ll finish the season as a 9 or 10 seed.

St. Mary’s has a son of a former NBA star on its roster. Can you name him?
👶Click here for the list of sons of NBA players in the 2025 Men’s College Basketball Season👶

College Basketball Against the Spread Picks – Closing Thought

That wraps up my early thoughts as I roll out of bed, checking for suspect spreads. Be sure to check out my website, CollegeBasketballItest.com, as well as my YouTube and Twitter for more picks and insights. Let me know what you’re seeing today, and enjoy the action!

Matty D’s ATS Record this Season for 2025 College Basketball Picks

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This blog started over 10 years ago with the goal of spotting human interest stories, huge underdogs, and sharing opinions across the college basketball ecosystem. Lead blogger Matty D. has delivered a few outstanding longshot picks over the years and on this website. That includes spotting UCONN 50-1 when Kemba Walker graced the Garden as a champion, Wichita State at 100-1 when it made the Final Four as a 9 seed, and also listed FAU as a season-long best underdog the year it made a Final Four as a 9 seed.

If you want to see this year’s top 5 picks for high value future underdogs to win a championship, click here:

To see Matty D’s resume for this season, read on.

Picks are posted before noon every Saturday. Those picks are given the appropriate hashtag “Suspect Spreads Saturday,” as we are looking for games where the sports books have the wrong numbers when it comes to their idea of a fair handicap for that game.

Here’s a running tally of this season’s record: 72-66 ATS Overall:

7-4 ATS on March 20th with this article
3-5 ATS on March 15th with a blog article
10-10 ATS on March 8th with this Tweet
5-10 ATS on March 1st with this Tweet
7-7 ATS on February 22nd with this Tweet
9-3 ATS on February 15th with this Tweet
7-7 ATS on February 8th with this Tweet
7-10 ATS on February 1st with this Article
17-10 to Start the Season with these picks

Men’s College Basketball Picks for Saturday, February 15, 2025

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The Super Bowl is over a new wave of sports fans is turning its attention to the college basketball season. It’s been an above .500 showing for Matty D. and the College Basketball Eye Test picks thus far in 2025. Let’s see if we can continue the momentum!

As we settle into the action, let’s take a look at some of the most compelling matchups of the day and what they mean for the landscape of college hoops.

Clemson vs. Florida State: Two Teams in Opposite Directions

One of the early matchups on the schedule sees Clemson traveling to Florida State, and these programs are heading in very different directions. Florida State is in transition, with Coach Leonard Hamilton announcing that this will be his final season at the helm. The Seminoles have struggled to find consistency, and their season has reflected the uncertainty surrounding the program’s future.

Clemson, on the other hand, is surging and might just be establishing itself as the second-best team in the ACC behind Duke. A key piece of their success has been Victor Lakhin, a transfer from Cincinnati who has bolstered the team’s defense. He currently leads the conference in blocked shots, adding an intimidating presence in the paint. With momentum on their side, I expect Clemson to take care of business on the road in what could be another statement win for the Tigers.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas: Can the Aggies Cover the Spread?

Another game to watch is Texas A&M hosting Arkansas, where the Aggies are favored by eight points. While I’m high on Texas A&M overall, that spread feels too large given their style of play. Coach Buzz Williams likes to go deep into his bench, routinely playing 10 or 11 guys. While that’s a great strategy for building depth, it doesn’t always translate into blowout wins, especially against a team like Arkansas that is still fighting for a tournament berth.

Arkansas has had an up-and-down season, but they are still a dangerous team under Coach John Calipari. While they have struggled to stay consistent, they have enough talent to keep things interesting. I like Texas A&M to win outright, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Arkansas keeps it closer than expected.

Michigan State vs. Illinois: The Best Bet of the Day?

One of the most intriguing matchups of the day is Michigan State traveling to Illinois. Oddsmakers have Illinois as a heavy favorite, but I don’t quite understand that line. This matchup plays right into the strengths of Michigan State, and I think Coach Tom Izzo’s squad has a real shot at pulling off the upset.

Illinois has been plagued by turnovers, sometimes making inexplicable mistakes that could prove costly against a disciplined, well-coached opponent like Michigan State. Meanwhile, one of Illinois’s biggest strengths is their ability to crash the offensive boards, but Michigan State is built to neutralize that advantage. The Spartans are a tough, physical team that won’t allow Illinois many second-chance points, and that could be the deciding factor in this game.

If Michigan State does win, it would be a huge validation of their spot near the top 10 rankings. Keep an eye on this one—it could be the upset of the day.

Final Thoughts

With March Madness fast approaching, every game matters. Clemson looks like a force in the ACC, Texas A&M needs to prove they can cover a big spread, and Michigan State might just be the best underdog bet of the day. Whatever happens, today’s action is sure to have major implications for the tournament picture.

Enjoy the games, and let me know what you think about today’s matchups!

College Basketball Predictions: Key Matchups as February Begins

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It might be February first, but March Madness tournament resumes are starting to crystalize for some of college basketball’s most hopeful teams. Here are my picks combined with some recent analysis powered by Chatgpt-4.

Florida Gators (UF) +5 vs. Tennessee Volunteers

The Florida Gators are set to face the Tennessee Volunteers today. In their last meeting, Florida secured a significant 30-point victory over Tennessee. The Volunteers will be seeking revenge in this matchup. We like Florida because of their strong defensive rebounding and ability to control the tempo against physical opponents.

Missouri Tigers (#Mizzou) +6 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Missouri Tigers, currently ranked 20th, are on the road against the 14th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs. Mississippi State is favored by 6.5 points in this matchup. We like Missouri because they have shown resilience in close games and have an effective perimeter shooting attack.

NC State Wolfpack +6 vs. Clemson Tigers

NC State is hosting the Clemson Tigers in a mid-afternoon game. The Wolfpack will look to leverage their home-court advantage in this ACC matchup. We like NC State because of their aggressive defensive pressure, which often forces turnovers and creates transition opportunities.

Auburn Tigers -5.5 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

The top-ranked Auburn Tigers are visiting the 23rd-ranked Ole Miss Rebels. Auburn is favored by 6.5 points in this SEC showdown. We like Auburn because of their deep rotation and ability to wear down opponents over 40 minutes.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5 vs. Michigan Wolverines

Rutgers is hosting Michigan in a Big Ten matchup. The Scarlet Knights will aim to capitalize on their home advantage against the Wolverines. We like Rutgers because of their tenacious perimeter defense and ability to defend the three-point line effectively.

Kansas Jayhawks (#KUBBall) +2.5 vs. Baylor Bears

The 11th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks are on the road against the Baylor Bears. Baylor is favored by 2.5 points in this Big 12 clash. We like Kansas because of their disciplined half-court offense and experience in high-pressure matchups.

UCF Knights -2 vs. BYU Cougars

UCF is hosting BYU in an evening matchup. The Knights are favored by 2 points in this contest. We like UCF because of their strong interior presence and ability to dominate in the paint.

Texas Longhorns -1.5 vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Texas is visiting Oklahoma in a Big 12 rivalry game. The Longhorns are slight favorites with a 1.5-point advantage. We like Texas because of their balanced scoring and ability to handle defensive pressure.

North Carolina Tar Heels (UNC) +13.5 vs. Duke Blue Devils

The Tar Heels are facing their arch-rivals, the 2nd-ranked Duke Blue Devils, at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke is heavily favored by 13.5 points in this storied rivalry. We like North Carolina because of their fast-paced offense and ability to push the tempo against elite teams.

UConn Huskies +6.5 vs. Marquette Golden Eagles

UConn is on the road against Marquette. The Huskies are 6.5-point underdogs in this Big East matchup. We like UConn because of their disciplined defense and efficient guard play.

South Carolina Gamecocks +5 vs. Texas A&M

We like South Carolina because Texas A&M mixes and matches lineups so often that it never runs away with a game.

Kentucky -11 vs. Arkansas

South Carolina is visiting the Kentucky at Rupp Arena with a highly anticipation return for former Wildcats coach John Calipari. Kentucky is favored by 11 points in this SEC contest. We like Kentucky because Arkansas has been playing poorly all season and we don’t expect this high pressure environment to change that.

St. Mary’s Gaels +1.5 vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

In a late-night West Coast Conference showdown, St. Mary’s is hosting the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga is favored by 1.5 points in this closely contested matchup. We like St. Mary’s because of their methodical offensive execution and ability to control the pace of the game.

Your selections encompass a mix of underdogs and favorites, reflecting a strategic approach to today’s diverse slate of college basketball games. Monitoring each team’s recent performances and current form will be crucial as the day’s action unfolds.

These picks were tweeted early Saturday morning to X. Follow us there!